Friday, 11 November 2016

The End of Bilderberg Europe?

Baltic Dry Index. 974 +20   Brent Crude 45.60

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

Eurasian Snow cover. (How bad will winter be?)

A round man cannot be expected to fit in a square hole right away. He must have time to modify his shape.

Mark Twain

2016 is turning out to be a momentous year. A counter revolution is underway against banksterism, central bank crony capitalism, Bilderberger Europe, and universal Davos style elitism. Will Italy deliver the trifecta next month?

Below, a wobbly EUSSR about to topple. The EU bureaucrats and functionaries seem completely deaf to Europe’s voters, unable to reform or even attempt to reform and respond to the new reality. The euro far from replacing the dollar, has turned instead into an EU wealth and young people’s jobs destroying disaster. Without meaningful change at the top in Europe, the EU as we know it will fail next year.

After Brexit and Trump, Populists Target Next Dominoes in Europe

November 9, 2016 — 11:01 PM GMT Updated on November 10, 2016 — 8:25 AM GMT
After success in Britain and the U.S., populists are setting their sights on the next five dominoes at risk.
Votes are looming within less than a year in Italy, Austria, the Netherlands, France and then Germany. Exasperation with the political and business establishment over a raft of grievances from inequality to immigration will likely shape all of these votes, with the outcome increasingly hard to predict.

“Now, I think, we are beginning to learn that the polls always under-report the extremist, nationalist candidate,” Bob Janjuah, senior independent client adviser at Nomura, told Bloomberg TV’s Guy Johnson.
The populist surge first broke through the establishment barrier in Britain. Below is a timeline of its past triumphs, and the challenges of the coming 10 months.

Brexit referendum

The June 23 vote to leave the European Union was the watershed moment, as voters defied the massed ranks of the British establishment and the advice of global institutions from the International Monetary Fund to NATO. The reverberations are still being felt in Britain as uncertainty clouds Prime Minister Theresa May’s plans four months after she came to power.

Fast forward to Donald Trump’s win, and “the revolution continues,” Nigel Farage, acting leader of the U.K. Independence Party and an architect of the Brexit vote, said in a phone interview. “Two massive upsets in 2016. The unholy alliance of big business, big banks and big politics is I believe coming to an end.”

Italy referendum

The first test is less than a month off. Italians vote on Dec. 4 in a constitutional referendum that Prime Minister Matteo Renzi says will make governments more stable and streamline legislation. Renzi’s promise to resign if he loses has helped turn the plebiscite into a vote on his premiership. Opinion polls, if they are to be believed, predict a narrow defeat for Renzi, which would boost the anti-establishment Five Star Movement. It could also trigger early elections next year -- meaning that governments accounting for more than 75 percent of the euro area would be in play in just one year.
Comic-turned-politician Beppe Grillo, co-founder of Five Star, said that the Trump win was “incredible” in his online blog. “This is the deflagration of an epoch. It’s the apocalypse of this information system, of the TVs, of the big newspapers, of the intellectuals, of the journalists.” Five Star, which already runs cities including Rome and Turin, calls for a referendum on Italy’s membership of the euro area.
Former premier Enrico Letta told Italian newspaper La Stampa that elected officials need to overhaul their relationship with voters and what he called the Clinton model, in which politicians enjoy “such long careers,” is over for ever. “Traditional parties, as we have conceived them, are finished,” he added.

In the markets, a new great malinvestment boom is underway. Blame it on Donald Trump’s victory and hyped all news is good news investment stories again. A Trump presidency is about to set off a new US infrastructure building boom, slash corporation tax, curb Chinese and Mexican imports, boost commodity demand, and do  all like there’s no tomorrow.

To this old dinosaur, there’s probably no tomorrow. Investors are being hyped into putting the cart before the horse. What’s coming next is a normalisation of interest rates, albeit in tiny baby step hikes. To this old dinosaur commodities trader, it’s more likely a new bust comes before any eventual Donald Trump boom. I would use the current rallies as an exit opportunity to raise cash ahead of 2017.

Asian markets drop as money shifts to U.S. Treasurys

By Willa Plank Published: Nov 10, 2016 11:09 p.m. ET
Asian emerging markets sold off sharply Friday as U.S. Treasury yields rose overnight.
Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index was off 2.9%, the Philippines PSEi PSEI, -2.88%   tumbled 2.5% and Malaysia’s FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI FBMKLCI, -0.98%   sank 1.1%.
In more developed markets Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, -1.12%   was down 1.5%, Korea’s Kospi SEU, -0.85%   was off 0.7%, and Taiwan’s Taiex Y9999, -2.12%   dropped 1.8%.
“Global investors are favoring conditions in the U.S. market,” said Alex Wijaya, senior sales trader at CMC Markets, pointing to soaring U.S. Treasury yields. “We are seeing a general flowing to the U.S.”
The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to 2.118% overnight from 2.070% Wednesday. That came on the back of the biggest one-day jump in the 10-year yield in over three years Wednesday.
As offshore investors pulled money out of emerging Asia into U.S. Treasurys, regional currencies were walloped. Indonesia’s rupiah was down 1.6% Friday according to Thomson Reuters and the Malaysian ringgit dove 2.7%, according to FactSet.
The rupiah plummet forced the Indonesian central bank Friday to defend the currency, according to Bank Indonesia Senior Deputy Governor Mirza Adityaswara, as foreign investors trimmed their holdings of rupiah assets.
Japan’s Nikkei NIK, +0.18%   bucked the regional selloff, rising 0.3% even as the yen gained 0.4% against the dollar.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, +0.79%   also rose 0.2%, lifted by an ongoing commodities rally.
The yield on the newest 10-year Japanese government bond briefly rose to -0.025%. Japanese government bond yields were tracking gains in U.S. Treasury yields overnight. JGB yields were driven higher by the prospect of rising inflation given U.S. President-elect Trump’s vast plans for spending and tax cuts.
Rising JGB yields lift the profits of Japan financials, which invest heavily in the asset. Nomura Holdings 8604, +5.11%   was 4.2% higher and Dai-ichi Life Holdings 8750, +8.78%   surged 8.9% Friday.
Japan industrial firms also jumped Friday on expectation they will benefit from Trump’s infrastructure spending. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries 7011, +3.70%   was up 3.7% and Kawasaki Heavy Industries 7012, +3.96%   gained 4.3%.
Commodities continued to rise on expectation of surging U.S. demand for Trump infrastructure building.
Copper, a core industrial metal, surged 3.6% Thursday, and is up 7% since the U.S. election. Iron ore jumped 4.4% to a two-year high Thursday.
This has lifted the Aussie miners, with BHP Billiton BHP, +2.13%   up 1.9%, Fortescue Metals Group FMG, +4.49%   gaining 2.8% and Rio Tinto RIO, +2.44%   rising 2.6% on Friday.

Trump's Vow to Crack Down on China Set to Run Into Complex Reality

November 11, 2016 — 4:00 AM GMT
On the campaign trail, Donald Trump hurled threats at China, telling it to level the playing field on trade or accept the consequences. Now as president, confronting the world’s second-biggest economy will be a much taller task.

Trump accuses China of victimizing the U.S., a pitch that got him a big following with voters in traditionally blue-collar states who blame globalization for trade-related job losses. He has promised to label China a currency manipulator, bring trade complaints against the nation, and impose tariffs if it doesn’t halt what he sees as unfair trading practices.

“I expect him to come out of the chute criticizing China a bunch and demanding improvement in China trade policy,” said Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "But he’s going to get briefed by his staff in the White House and come face to face with new data that don’t accord with his current view.”

On the accusation of China manipulating its currency, for example, Trump’s new Treasury secretary will have to explain why he’s shifting the U.S. stance after Barack Obama’s administration repeatedly found that the country doesn’t deserve that label.

The Chinese yuan has appreciated 16 percent against the dollar over the last decade. Rather than trying to weaken the yuan -- an advantage for an export-led economy -- China sold an estimated $570 billion in foreign-exchange assets from August 2015 to August 2016 to shore up the currency, the U.S. Treasury said in a report last month.

Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable.

Mark Twain

At the Comex silver depositories Thursday final figures were: Registered 30.35 Moz, Eligible 145.59 Moz, Total 175.94 Moz. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, presented without need for comment

Meanwhile, From Canada...

Nov 9, 2016 8:55 PM
The flood of Trump-fearing American liberals sneaking across the border into Canada has intensified in the past week. The Republican presidential campaign is prompting an exodus among left-leaning Americans who fear they’ll soon be required to hunt, pray, pay taxes, and live according to the Constitution.
Canadian border residents say it’s not uncommon to see dozens of sociology professors, liberal arts majors, global-warming activists, and “green” energy proponents crossing their fields at night.
“I went out to milk the cows the other day, and there was a Hollywood producer huddled in the barn,” said southern Manitoba farmer Red Greenfield, whose acreage borders North Dakota. “He was cold, exhausted and hungry, and begged me for a latte and some free-range chicken. When I said I didn’t have any, he left before I even got a chance to show him my screenplay, eh?”
In an effort to stop the illegal aliens, Greenfield erected higher fences, but the liberals scaled them. He then installed loudspeakers that blared Rush Limbaugh across the fields, but they just stuck their fingers in their ears and kept coming. Officials are particularly concerned about smugglers who meet liberals just south of the border, pack them into electric cars, and drive them across the border, where they are simply left to fend for themselves after the battery dies.
“A lot of these people are not prepared for our rugged conditions,” an Alberta border patrolman said. “I found one carload without a single bottle of Perrier water, or any gemelli with shrimp and arugula. All they had was a nice little Napa Valley cabernet and some kale chips. When liberals are caught, they’re sent back across the border, often wailing that they fear persecution from Trump high-hairers.
Rumors are circulating about plans being made to build re-education camps where liberals will be forced to drink domestic beer, study the Constitution, and find jobs that actually contribute to the economy.
In recent days, liberals have turned to ingenious ways of crossing the border. Some have been disguised as senior citizens taking a bus trip to buy cheap Canadian prescription drugs. After catching a half-dozen young vegans in blue-hair wig disguises, Canadian immigration authorities began stopping buses and quizzing the supposed senior citizens about Perry Como and Rosemary Clooney to prove that they were alive in the ’50s.
“If they can’t identify the accordion player on The Lawrence Welk Show, we become very suspicious about their age,” an official said.
Canadian citizens have complained that the illegal immigrants are creating an organic-broccoli shortage, are buying up all the Barbara Streisand CD’s, and are overloading the internet while downloading jazzercise apps to their cell phones.
“I really feel sorry for American liberals, but the Canadian economy just can’t support them,” an Ottawa resident said. “After all, how many art-history majors does one country need?"

Solar  & Related Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?

Wednesday, Nov 9, 2016 10:00 PM +0000

Florida voters reject misleading referendum that sought to tax solar energy

Amendment 1 in Florida was batted down yesterday by voters despite a strong push by utility companies

Voters in Florida rejected Amendment 1 yesterday, a referendum that, on its face, seemed designed to expand solar power use, but, in reality, sanctioned Florida’s utility companies to levy fees on solar power users, even when the solar panels were not pulling power off the utilities’ grids.

Amendment 1 was backed by four major local power utilities — Florida Power & Light, Duke Energy, TECO and Gulf Power — which as of late October had forked $21 million to champion it. That meant this was to the most expensive campaign for a ballot measure in Florida history.

The referendum contained misleading language that confused Florida voters, with many people indicated they were in favor of the proposed amendment in the weeks leading up to the election. Support for a “yes” vote on the amendment was at about 66 percent in polls before the election.

But on Election Day, Floridians rejected the referendum, representing a huge turnaround for alternative energy activists.

Amendment 1 had been challenged by solar power advocates and consumer rights organizations, that argued that the language was misleading. The Florida Supreme Court upheld the referendum’s deceitful wording despite one dissenting judge having called it a “wolf in sheep’s clothing” that deliberately hid the pro-utility nature of the bill.

“Today was truly a solar uprising,” Stephen A. Smith, a board member of Floridians for Solar Choice that opposed the amendment, said in a statement. This is the second time in a year that Florida voters had taken a stance to back solar energy, Smith said, referring to the recent passage of an amendment that waives businesses’ property taxes on solar equipment.

“The Sunshine State voters have spoken clearly,” Smith said, adding that “they want more solar friendly policies and the freedom to harness the sun’s power for the benefit of all Floridians and not just the monopoly utilities.”

Another weekend, and I think we all know what mainstream media will be full of this weekend. In the EUSSR including the UK, many big wig politicians full of their own importance and something more unpleasant, have all been U-turning from previous anti-Trump defamations, and busy eating crow and humble pie all week, since The Donald trumped the HillBilly campaign in spades. Some EUSSR politicians may spend a very long time in lines at US airports next year, when they next attempt to enter The Donald’s U.S.A. All in all, it has been a most enjoyable week. Have a great weekend everyone.

There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.

John Kenneth Galbraith.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October

DJIA: 18142  +32 Up NASDAQ:  5189 +31 Up. SP500: 2126 +46 Up.

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