Baltic Dry Index. 1201 -23 Brent Crude
48.48
Eurasian Snow cover. (How bad will
winter be?)
A bargain is something
you can't use at a price you can't resist.
Franklin P. Jones
As Americans head off to the shops to
buy Asian made tat they don’t need with money they largely don’t have, running
up their debt, they can take heart in the knowledge that next year’s tat will
be even cheaper thanks largely due to the surging dollar. For US exporters a
surging dollar is a killer, but for US importers and consumers it’s a gift from
heaven. A gift all too likely to be enhanced by a Federal Reserve interest rate
hike at the upcoming meeting next month. Even OPEC is trying to do its bit to
boost dollar demand, with an attempt to cap production and boost crude oil
prices next week. We have entered a world of unpredictable change.
Below, some of the global change
underway, this “black Friday” 2016.
Dollar taps fresh 13-year high after U.S. data add to rate-hike case
By Barbara Kollmeyer and Kosaku
Narioka Published: Nov 24, 2016 6:35 a.m. ET
The dollar flirted with fresh 13-year highs on Thursday, before
backing down slightly, after solid U.S. economic indicators and Federal Reserve
meeting minutes underpinned speculation for an interest-rate rise.
The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, -0.04% , which measures the buck
against a basket of six currencies, last traded around 101.56 after closing at
101.68 late Tuesday in New York. The index marked fresh 13-and-half-year highs
in early European trade, climbing as high as 102.05. On Wednesday, the dollar
index hit 101.78, its highest since April 2003.
The index got close to its March 21, 2003, high of 102.15, noted Richard
Perry, market analyst at Hantec Markets.
“Basically, the dollar hs
been consolidating for a couple of days, but the market had a new leg
yesterday,” said Perry in a telephone interview. “It is odd that has been the
position taken coming into Thanksgiving, because now you’re going to get
illiquid markets, thin trading and spiking around.”
But he said the dollar is getting more stretched on the upside,
technically. “The further you get on this dollar bull run, the bigger the
chances are we’ll get a retracement snap back,” he said.
The WSJ Dollar Index BUXX, -0.11% , which measures the
greenback against a wider basket of currencies, fell 0.4% to 91.83.
Data boost: Strong U.S. durable goods orders and consumer sentiment data on
Wednesday bolstered already heightened expectations the Fed will keep
tightening monetary policy to prevent the economy from overheating.
Minutes from the Fed’s
November meeting showed strength in key sectors of the U.S. economy, hardening
the case for an increase in short-term interest rates in December.
More
ECB Says It Can Shield Euro Area From Global Finance Instability
November 24, 2016 — 9:04 AM GMT Updated on November 24, 2016 — 12:50 PM
GMT
The European Central Bank is confident it will be able to continue
shielding the euro area from the risk of a sudden correction in asset prices,
after political events such as the election of Donald Trump threaten to
increase volatility in coming months.
“We are certainly seeing a correction coming from the U.S.,” ECB Vice
President Vitor Constancio said on Thursday in an interview with Bloomberg TV’s
Matt Miller. “The ECB will continue to exert its stabilizing role, so I don’t
think there will be significant contagion to Europe.” Constancio spoke on the
occasion of the publication of the ECB’s twice-yearly Financial Stability
Review.
The report warns that the risk of an abrupt global market correction has
intensified on the back of widespread political uncertainty, posing a threat to
banks, stability and economic growth. While the policies of incoming President
Trump may lead to higher spending and faster inflation in the U.S., their
effect on the euro area is difficult to gauge given the possibility of
protectionist tit-for-tats and higher chances of populist victories in votes
across the continent.
“More volatility in the near future is likely and the potential for an
abrupt reversal remains significant,” according to the Frankfurt-based central
bank. “Elevated geopolitical tensions and heightened political uncertainty amid
busy electoral calendars in major advanced economies have the potential to
reignite global risk aversion and to trigger a major confidence shock.”
For Constancio, U.S. expansionary
policies may be accompanied by “some protectionist measures which would then
reduce the impact on other parts of the world.” He said the recent rally in
asset prices will only become sustained in Europe if inflation and growth in
the region pick up, while a recent appreciation of the dollar won’t have a
major effect on the continent as it did for emerging markets.
More
Trump Is a ‘Game Changer’ for Auto Industry, Fiat CEO Says
November 24, 2016 — 3:35 PM GMT
Updated on
President-elect Donald Trump’s critical stance toward free trade could
affect Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV’s business in North America, according to
the Italian automaker’s chief executive officer Sergio Marchionne.Trump’s election “certainly is a game changer, mainly because I think that there are a number of conditions in the U.S. which are not yet spelled out,” Marchionne told Bloomberg Television at an Alfa Romeo plant in Cassino, Italy. Statements Trump has made about trade are “a big issue” because of the North American Free Trade Agreement’s impact on Fiat’s operations in the U.S., Mexico and Canada.
Trump frequently slammed Nafta during his campaign, describing it as the worst deal ever and blaming it for U.S. job losses. The President-elect has singled out Ford Motor Co. for making cars in Mexico and has called for imposing a 35 percent tariff on products made by companies that move their production from the U.S. to other countries. Since 2010, nine global automakers, including General Motors Co., Ford and and Fiat have announced more than $24 billion in Mexican investments.
Fiat, which generates the lion’s share of its profits in North America, assembled about 17 percent of all the vehicles it made in that region in Mexico in the first ten months, according to Kevin Tynan, Bloomberg Industry senior analyst. Almost all of those cars were sold in the U.S. and Canada.
----The change in U.S. leadership is not only impacting carmakers’ trade prospects. Fiat shares have gained 14 percent since the Nov. 8 vote, with a jump three days later after Trump chose a prominent climate change skeptic to lead his Environmental Protection Agency transition team. That fueled speculation that the new administration may loosen fuel-economy rules, which would benefit makers of conventional engines. In addition, gains by the U.S. dollar since the election are positive for Fiat, Marchionne said.
More
And finally, yet more change.
Central Americans surge north, hoping to reach U.S. before Trump inauguration
Central American countries warned on Thursday that large numbers of
migrants have fled their poor, violent homes since Donald Trump's surprise
election win, hoping to reach the United States before he takes office next
year.
Trump won the Nov. 8 vote by taking a hard line on immigration,
threatening to deport millions of people living illegally in the United States
and to erect a wall along the Mexican border.
Trump's tough campaign rhetoric sent tremors through the slums of
Central America and the close-knit migrant communities in U.S. cities, with
many choosing to fast-forward their plans and migrate north before Trump takes
office on Jan. 20.
During fiscal year 2016, the United States detained nearly 410,000
people along the southwest border with Mexico, up about a quarter from the
previous year. The vast majority hail from Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras.
Since Trump's victory, the number of people flocking north has surged,
Central American officials say, contributing to a growing logjam along the
southern U.S. border.
"We're worried because we're seeing a rise in the flow of migrants
leaving the country, who have been urged to leave by coyotes telling them that
they have to reach the United States before Trump takes office," Maria
Andrea Matamoros, Honduras' deputy foreign minister, told Reuters, referring to
people smugglers.
Carlos Raul Morales, Guatemala's foreign minister, told Reuters people
were also leaving Guatemala en masse before Trump becomes president.
"The coyotes are leaving people in debt, and taking their property
as payment for the journey," he said in an interview.
Last week, U.S. Customs and Border Protection opened a temporary holding
facility for up to 500 people near the Texan border with Mexico, in what it
said was a response to a marked uptick in illegal border crossings.
U.S. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson said earlier
this month immigration detention facilities were holding about 10,000 more
individuals than usual, after a spike in October of migrants including
unaccompanied children, families and asylum seekers.
Unemployed and sick of the lack of opportunities and endemic gang
violence that blight his poor neighborhood in the town of San Marcos, south of
San Salvador, Carlos Garcia, 25, said he was looking to enter the United States
before Trump assumes power.
"There's one thing I'm very clear about," he said. "I
want to get out of here."
More
China says to boost military ties with strategic Djibouti
China will boost military ties with Djibouti, strategically located in
the Horn of Africa, state media quoted a senior Chinese army officer as saying
during a visit to a country where China is building its first overseas naval
base.
In February, China began construction in Djibouti of its first overseas
military facility, a logistics base that will resupply naval vessels taking
part in peacekeeping and humanitarian missions.
Djibouti, which is about the size of Wales, is strategically located at
the southern entrance to the Red Sea on the route to the Suez Canal. The tiny,
barren nation sandwiched between Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia also hosts U.S.,
Japanese and French bases.
Fan Changlong, a vice chairman of China's powerful Central Military
Commission, said after a meeting with Djibouti President Ismail Omar Guelleh
the two countries could strengthen ties in all areas, including militarily,
state news agency Xinhua said late on Thursday.
"The two sides have made frequent exchanges of visits, and achieved
remarkable results in personnel training, naval escort and supplies, and
participation in UN peacekeeping operations," Xinhua paraphrased Fan as
saying.
Fan said relations between the two militaries had been "developing
smoothly in recent years", Xinhua reported.
"China is willing to make joint efforts with Djibouti to continue
to promote the healthy and stable development of relations between the
militaries," Fan said.
There was no direct mention of the Chinese military base, which China
describes as a supply facility.
More
The Christmas season has come to mean the period when the public
plays Santa Claus to the merchants.
John Andrew Holmes
At the Comex silver depositories
Wednesday final figures were: Registered 30.90 Moz, Eligible 147.43 Moz,
Total 178.33 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
No crooks today, Ireland’s had enough of them. The
UK’s rent-seeking, lying, cheating, stealing, dodgy banksters aren’t that
welcome to come to Dublin after Brexit. So far
five month on from the UK voting for freedom, not a single rent-seeking,
lying, cheating, stealing, dodgy London bankster has left town. Sadly, John
Bull might not be able to get rid of them at all.
Here's Why Ireland May Not Become a Post-Brexit Financial Capital After All
by Reuters November 23, 2016, 6:29 AM EST
Ireland has signaled to several large investment banks it would be
reluctant to host large trading operations, banking sources told Reuters,
despite Dublin’s desire to attract financial sector jobs from London after
Britain leaves the EU.
This reticence, linked to Ireland’s painful experience of a banking
crash in 2008 and subsequent international bailout, means Dublin is unlikely to
become a major destination for what is regarded as some of the banks’ riskiest
business.
Ireland’s central bank has indicated in talks with the banks that they
would face high hurdles to win regulatory approval for such operations, which
involve huge sums when compared with the relatively small size of the country’s
economy.
“Ireland is being very realistic about what it can and what it wants to do,”
said one source at a large global investment bank, speaking on condition of
anonymity as the discussions are private. “If you’ve come from all the troubles
Ireland has, you want to be very careful about taking on risks.”The largely U.S., British and Swiss investment banks are working out how to secure access to the European Union when Britain leaves the bloc. The main question is where to trade and clear European securities, euros and other market activities controlled by EU regulation.
Such trade carries a lot of risk and large balance sheets, meaning regulators must supervise the banks’ trading models closely. This, along with the scale of the business, has prompted the cautious response from Dublin, according to the sources.
A spokeswoman for the Irish central bank said there was no blanket policy of turning certain types of business away. “The central bank is open to engagement with any firm wishing to obtain an authorization,” she said.
However, another banking source said Dublin had specific types of financial business in mind. “Yes, Ireland want insurers, asset managers, back office functions … but they don’t want big balance sheet risk. They just don’t want to take on that kind of risk and feel that they don’t have the regulatory bandwidth to do that,” the source said.
Reuters asked the five large U.S. banks as well as Barclays BCS 0.47% and Credit Suisse CSGKF -1.36% , who have some operations in Ireland, whether Dublin was still a contender. All of the banks declined to comment.
----Ireland is already one of the world’s largest centers for back office banking functions such as settling transactions, many of them farmed out from London. On top of that, it hosts a growing financial technology industry.
But it has a population of less than five million and its annual
economic output is only around 10 percent of neighboring Britain’s. That left
it vulnerable when disaster struck in 2008.
Irish taxpayers had to stump up 64 billion euros (now $68 billion)—or
almost 40% of GDP—to rescue a banking system brought down by a property market
crash.
The cost of staging the biggest public rescue of banks in the euro zone
forced the state to take the 85 billion euro bailout in 2010. Conditions of the
three-year EU/IMF program included deeply unpopular austerity polices.
More
Christmas is the
season when you buy this year's gifts with next year's money.
Anon.
Solar & Related Update.
With events
happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap
AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC?
A quantum computer next?
Uncovering the secrets of friction on graphene
Sliding on flexible graphene surfaces has been uncharted territory until now
Date: November 23, 2016
Source: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Summary: Graphene has been the subject of widespread research, in
large part because of its unique combination of strength, electrical
conductivity, and chemical stability. But despite many years of study, some of
graphene’s fundamental properties are still not well-understood. Now, using
powerful computer simulations, researchers have made significant strides in
understanding that process.
Graphene, a two-dimensional form of carbon in
sheets just one atom in thick, has been the subject of widespread research, in
large part because of its unique combination of strength, electrical
conductivity, and chemical stability. But despite many years of study, some of
graphene's fundamental properties are still not well-understood, including the
way it behaves when something slides along its surface.
Now, using powerful computer simulations, researchers at MIT and
elsewhere have made significant strides in understanding that process,
including why the friction varies as the object sliding on it moves forward,
instead of remaining constant as it does with most other known materials.
The findings are presented this week in the journal Nature, in a
paper by Ju Li, professor of nuclear science and engineering and of materials
science and engineering at MIT, and seven others at MIT, the University of Pennsylvania,
and universities in China and Germany.
Graphite, a bulk material composed of many layers of graphene, is a
well-known solid lubricant. (In other words, like oil, it can be added in
between contacting materials to reduce friction.) Recent research suggests that
even one or a few layers of graphene can also provide effective lubrication.
This may be used in small-scale thermal and electrical contacts and other
nanoscale devices. In such cases, an understanding of the friction between two
pieces of graphene, or between graphene and another material, is important for
maintaining a good electrical, thermal, and mechanical connection. Researchers
had previously found that while one layer of graphene on a surface reduces
friction, having a few more was even better. However, the reason for this was
not well-explained before, Li says.
"There is this broad notion in tribology that friction depends on
the true contact area," Li says -- that is, the area where two materials
are really in contact, down to the atomic level. The "true" contact
area is often substantially smaller than it would otherwise appear to be if
observed at larger size scales. Determining the true contact area is important
for understanding not only the degree of friction between the pieces, but also
other characteristics such as the electrical conduction or heat transfer.
For example, explains co-author Robert Carpick of the University of
Pennsylvania, "When two parts in a machine make contact, like two teeth of
steel gears, the actual amount of steel in contact is much smaller than it
appears, because the gear teeth are rough, and contact only occurs at the
topmost protruding points on the surfaces. If the surfaces were polished to be
flatter so that twice as much area was in contact, the friction would then be
twice as high. In other words, the friction force doubles if the true area of
direct contact doubles."
But it turns out that the situation is even more complex than scientists
had thought. Li and his colleagues found that there are also other aspects of
the contact that influence how friction force gets transferred across it.
"We call this the quality of contact, as opposed to the quantity of
contact measured by the 'true contact' area," Li explains.
More
Another weekend,
and in many places the busiest shopping weekend of the year. Not here in the
UK, where despite retailers desperate efforts to import America’s “Black Friday”
marketing mania, heavily promoted by the advertising shills, the busiest
shopping weekend still lies closer to Christmas. Whether shopping or not, with
money or debt this weekend, have a great weekend everyone.
Only
in America do people trample others for sales exactly one day after being
thankful for what they already have.
Anon.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October
DJIA: 18142
+32 Up NASDAQ: 5189 +31 Up. SP500: 2126 +46 Up.
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