Monday, 14 November 2016

Trump Week Two.

Baltic Dry Index. 1045 +71   Brent Crude 44.75

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

Eurasian Snow cover. (How bad will winter be?)

Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.

John F. Kennedy

It is week two of the great global earthquake the election of Donald Trump unleashed. There is a counter revolution underway. How far it goes or where it ends, nobody knows. But this is now a very dangerous time for investing and long term planning.

Below, week two of the new era opens.

Bond Rout Deepens as Trump Bets Boost Dollar, Industrial Metals

November 13, 2016 — 10:34 PM GMT Updated on November 14, 2016 — 4:55 AM GMT
Routs in global bonds and emerging markets intensified, while the dollar climbed with U.S. equity futures and industrial metals as investors position for the wave of fiscal stimulus that Donald Trump plans to unleash.
Sovereign bonds in the Asia-Pacific region slid with U.S. Treasuries, extending a record debt selloff, amid speculation President-elect Trump’s pledge to boost infrastructure spending will trigger U.S. interest-rate hikes as economic growth and inflation pick up. Bloomberg’s dollar index climbed to a nine-month high as an earthquake weighed on New Zealand’s dollar. Japanese shares were set for their best close since April after gross domestic product data, while shares in developing nations fell. Copper surged to a 16-month high and gold slumped.

Trump’s election victory continues to send shockwaves through global markets, having already led to $1.2 trillion being wiped off the value of bonds worldwide last week as equities added about $1 trillion and industrial metals soared by the most in four years. Emerging markets are being hit by an exodus of capital as speculation builds that the U.S. is headed for an era of rising interest rates and more protectionist trade policies.

“In the short-term the election of Donald Trump as president is causing a bit of uncertainty and markets tend to overreact to that,” said Shane Oliver, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which manages about $121 billion. “I suspect the dust will settle down in the next couple of months and this sort of market overreaction will provide opportunities.”

Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields increased by five basis points to 2.20 percent as of 1:35 p.m. Tokyo time, the highest since early January. They surged 37 basis points last week, the most in three years, amid speculation fiscal stimulus planned by Trump will widen the budget deficit and stoke inflation.

Trump’s Rise May Save Banks Billions by Disrupting Global Rules

November 14, 2016 — 12:01 AM GMT
The election of Donald Trump may allow banks to dodge the full impact of global regulators’ post-2008 crisis crackdown.

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is racing to complete a revamp of international capital standards by year-end. The U.S. has pushed for strict rules to protect against future market meltdowns, whereas Europe and Japan want to rein in proposals that could hit banks with billions in costs. Basel Committee members including the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are under enormous industry pressure to soften the rules.

Trump’s ascendancy and his vow to dismantle financial regulations could throw another wrench in the works. If he stalls U.S. implementation of the revised Basel Committee standards on how banks measure asset risk, or ignores them altogether, Europe could follow suit. And if the U.S. and Europe go their own ways, the last piece of the global response to the financial crisis could be undermined.

“I think that before Trump, Basel was going to be softened down significantly,” Sam Theodore, managing director for financial institutions at Scope Ratings AG, said in an interview. “And now with Trump, I think the whole thing is going to become more of a symbolic exercise.”

The memory of the crisis is fading, and “you have all the ingredients for the anti-regulation backlash to continue,” he said.

Peru says TPP can be replaced with new trade deal, sans U.S.

Fri Nov 11, 2016 | 2:50pm EST
Peru President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski told Russian media that Pacific-rim countries can forge a new trade deal that includes China to replace the U.S.-led TPP that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to scrap.

Kuczynski, speaking to Russia Today in an videotaped interview posted on the state-funded broadcaster's website Friday, said Russia should also be part of any new bid to hammer out a tariff-slashing agreement for the Asia-Pacific region.

U.S. President Barack Obama had framed the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership, which excludes China and Russia, as a way for Washington to set trade rules for the fast-growing Pacific-rim region before Beijing does, part of his "pivot to Asia."

Meanwhile in Europe news, the mood is getting ugly as the EUSSR heads into a year of major elections. Everyone is now playing to the populist crowd, while southeast Europe and Turkey are looking towards Russia.  The wealth and jobs destroying EUSSR needs reform and intensive care. It will probably get neither.

If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.

Lao Tzu

France, EU Must Respond in Kind to Trump Moves, Sarkozy Says

November 13, 2016 — 8:59 PM GMT
Europe must be prepared to respond in kind if U.S. President-elect Donald Trump follows through with policy threats including withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord, France’s center-right presidential candidate Nicolas Sarkozy said.

“Europe can no longer be weak, Europe can no longer be naive. We can’t let our industry go,” Sarkozy, the French president from 2007 to 2012 who’s looking to get back into office, said Sunday in an interview with the TF1 television station.

Europe must set up a “Buy Act” that would require foreign companies seeking public contracts to set operations in European countries, Sarkozy said.

Should Trump stick to his electoral promise of exiting the U.S. from the Paris Accord to curb carbon emissions, Europe should set up a carbon tax for U.S. products, Sarkozy also said.

The former French president also called for an anti-dumping tax in Europe. "I believe in trade but I want that, in this world, Europe rearms and defends itself."

Russia-friendly political novice wins Bulgaria presidential election: exit polls

Sun Nov 13, 2016 | 8:28pm EST
Bulgarian Socialist ally Rumen Radev, a Russia-friendly newcomer to politics, won Sunday's presidential election by a wide margin, exit polls showed, prompting centre-right Prime Minister Boiko Borisov to pledge to resign.

Radev, 53, entered Bulgarian politics on a wave of discontent with the ruling centre-right's progress in combating corruption, disappointment with the European Union and concerns among voters over alienating an increasingly assertive Russia.

A former air force commander, Radev has argued Bulgaria needs to be pragmatic in balancing the requirements of its European Union and NATO memberships while seeking ways to benefit from a relationship with Moscow.

Exit polls showed Radev, who is backed by the opposition Socialist party, winning 58.1-58.5 percent of the vote, compared with 35.3-35.7 percent for Tsetska Tsacheva, the 58-year-old candidate of the ruling GERB party.
Compounding GERB's problems, Tsacheva was seen as lacking Borisov's charisma.

---- Coupled with political instability, Bulgaria's tilt toward Russia is a blow to the country's western European allies and underscores Moscow's growing influence in southeastern Europe.

Pro-Moscow figure Igor Dodo claims Moldova presidency

5 hours ago
Pro-Russian candidate Igor Dodon says he has won the second round of Moldova's presidential election.
With almost all the ballots counted, Mr Dodon, who wants to restore close ties with Russia, has 55% of the vote. His rival, pro-European candidate Maia Sandu, is far behind with 45%.

The national vote marks the first direct presidential election in Moldova for 20 years.

Since 1996 presidents of Moldova have been chosen by parliament.

The election was seen as a battle between those supporting closer ties with Russia and those wanting integration with the European Union.

Speaking shortly after the closure of polling stations on Sunday, Mr Dodon called on Ms Sandu to preserve public order and abstain from protests.

"The election is over," he said, adding: "People have elected their president."

Mr Dodon, 41, was a deputy prime minister in the Party of Communists government before 2009. He blames widespread corruption in Moldova on the pro-EU parties that have ruled the country since then.

Both candidates criticised the vote on Sunday as badly organised, highlighting the shortage of ballot papers for overseas voters.

The final voter turnout was 53.3%.

Moldova, a former Soviet republic with has close historical ties with Moscow, declared independence after the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991.

It also has a breakaway region supported by Russia, Trans-Dniester.

It has moved to forge closer ties with the European Union in recent years, a course championed by Ms Sandu

We close for today with a new Chinese trade route opening. One that allows China to avoid the US Navy chokehold at the Malacca Strait. Interesting.

Chinese Ship Opens New Trade Route Via Pakistani Port

November 13, 2016 — 1:52 AM GMT Updated on November 13, 2016 — 2:46 AM GMT
Islamabad (AP) -- Pakistan's top civilian and military leaders traveled to the country's southwest on Sunday to open a new international trade route by seeing off a Chinese ship that's exporting goods to the Middle East and Africa from the newly built Gwadar port.
The first convoy of Chinese trucks carrying goods for sale abroad has arrived in Pakistan amid tight security using a road linking Gwadar to China's northwestern Xinjiang region, the government said in a statement.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said that Pakistan will provide best possible security to foreign investors to enable them to use the Chinese-funded port for international trade.
Amid security concerns for foreign workers, the Pakistani army has created a special force to guard the new trade routes and the port, which is located in insurgency-wracked Baluchistan province where an overnight blast at a shrine killed nearly 50 people.
The attack was claimed by the Islamic State group and Pakistani officials said it was aimed at harming the Chinese-funded projects in the southwest and elsewhere in the country.
China is building a network of roads and power plants under a project known as China-Pakistan Economic Corridor that is expected to absorb $46 billion in Chinese investment in the coming decades.
China and Pakistan have long maintained close political and military relations, based partly on mutual antipathy toward neighbor India. Gwadar port is located on the Arabian Sea and it occupies a strategic location between South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East. The port is also located at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, just outside the Straits of Hormuz.
China is seeking convenient and reliable access to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. Chinese ships now use the Strait of Malacca, a narrow passage between the Malay Peninsula and Indonesia. The proposed new route would give China access to the Persian Gulf region and the Middle East.

Change is inevitable. Change is constant.

Benjamin Disraeli

At the Comex silver depositories Friday final figures were: Registered 30.35 Moz, Eligible 144.94 Moz, Total 175.29 Moz. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, EC President JC Junker sets out to teach President elect Trump a lesson. Just who do those American’s think they are, voting in  a Europe “know nothing” as President? Juncker gives Trump a piece of his all too limited mind. Juncker in, Juncker out, as they say in computing. Juncker out, can’t come soon enough for more and more dissatisfied, poor, unemployed continental Europeans.
Below, Europe’s daft continental European leaders get ideas above their station.

Trump ignorant of Europe, poses risk to relations: EU's Juncker

Sat Nov 12, 2016 | 1:17am EST
Donald Trump's election as U.S. president poses risks for the relationship between the European Union and the United States, EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said on Friday.

The shock winner of Tuesday's U.S. election was ignorant of the EU and its workings, Juncker told students at a conference in Luxembourg which can be viewed on the EU's website. ( here )

"The election of Trump poses the risk of upsetting intercontinental relations in their foundation and in their structure," said Juncker, who as head of the EU's executive is one of Europe's most powerful political figures.
His blunt remarks reflected widespread shock and concern among Europeans at the election of Trump, who among other statements has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin and questioned the principle of collective defense in NATO.
His comments contrasted with the more diplomatic reactions of European leaders who have said they look forward to working with the next Republican president.
Juncker warned against the "pernicious" consequences of Trump's statements on security policy. He also recalled a Trump statement in which he seemed to think that Belgium, the country that hosts the headquarters of the EU and NATO, was a city.
"We will need to teach the president-elect what Europe is and how it works," Juncker said, adding that Americans usually had no interest in Europe.
"I think we will waste two years before Mr Trump tours the world he does not know," said Juncker, who on Thursday had already raised doubts about Trump's views on global trade, climate policy and Western security.

Trump's climate plan 'catastrophic': France's Royal

Fri Nov 11, 2016 | 2:34pm EST
Donald Trump's plan to drop out of world cooperation on slowing climate change would be "absolutely catastrophic" and weaken the United States, France's environment minister said on Friday.
But Segolene Royal, defending a 2015 Paris climate agreement she helped construct, told Reuters she believed the U.S. president-elect might switch track once he takes office.
Trump has called global warming a hoax, wants to cancel the Paris Agreement and halt all U.S. funding of U.N. global warming programs.
"If such decisions are taken it would be absolutely catastrophic," said Royal, a Socialist.
"I dare to believe that such things are campaign promises to please a certain electorate which has not understood that global warming is a reality," she said at a Nov. 7-18 meeting of 200 nations in Marrakesh, Morocco, on actions to limit warming.
Trump says he wants to bolster U.S. jobs and avoid dependence on OPEC oil by exploiting the "$50 trillion in untapped shale, oil, and natural gas reserves, plus hundreds of years in clean coal reserves" in the United States.
By contrast, the Paris Agreement seeks to limit greenhouse gas emissions, mostly from burning fossil fuels.

Trump mustn't forget Crimea, Aleppo when talking to Putin: German minister

Fri Nov 11, 2016 | 10:59am EST
Germany supports a dialogue between the United States and Russia, but Donald Trump must not ignore Russian actions in Crimea and Aleppo when he sits down with President Vladimir Putin, the German defense minister said on Friday.
Speaking at an event in Berlin, Ursula von der Leyen also said that NATO would be "dead" if any one of its members refused to come to the defense of another that was under attack.
German President Joachim Gauck and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier also called for the EU and NATO to present a unified front after the U.S. election and in the wake of Russia's annexation of the Crimea region of Ukraine in 2014.
"We must unite with our partners to oppose wars and conflicts and also Russia's lust for power," Gauck told visiting Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid. "Germany will stand by Estonia's side when it comes to ensuring the security of the Baltic states."
NATO is bolstering its forces in eastern Europe to reassure Estonia and the other ex-Soviet Baltic states, who worry that Moscow might try a repeat of its actions in Crimea.
Trump, who defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton in the U.S. presidential election this week, praised Putin repeatedly during his campaign and questioned whether the United States should defend NATO allies that were not shouldering their fair share of the financial burden in the alliance.
"It is a good thing when the new American president immediately seeks a dialogue with the Russian president. It is good and it has our full support," said von der Leyen, a member of Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives.
"What can't happen is forgetting - forgetting the annexation of Crimea, forgetting the hybrid war in Ukraine which continues, forgetting the bombardment of Aleppo," she said.
Trump's election has deeply unsettled the government in Berlin, which has been the driving force behind EU sanctions against Russia for Putin's military intervention in Ukraine. It has also strongly condemned the bombing of civilians in rebel-held areas of the Syrian city of Aleppo by the Syrian government and Russia, its ally.

Solar  & Related Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?

Next update tomorrow.

When you're finished changing, you're finished.

Benjamin Franklin

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October

DJIA: 18142  +32 Up NASDAQ:  5189 +31 Up. SP500: 2126 +46 Up.

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