Wednesday, 7 August 2013

The Churn Before Burn.



Baltic Dry Index. 1046 -12

LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

"The first requisite of a sound monetary system is that it put the least possible power over the quantity or quality of money in the hands of the politicians."

Henry Hazlitt

We open with what ought to be the final nail in the coffin of the nuclear power industry. Present technology and the industry simply isn’t up to the job of providing safe nuclear power. According to a Reuters newsflash citing the Japanese government, 300 tonnes a day of radioactive water in now pouring into the Pacific Ocean.

Japan government to take bigger role in Fukushima clean-up

OKYO | Wed Aug 7, 2013 3:05am EDT
(Reuters) - The Japanese government will get directly involved in containing rising levels of radioactive water at the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant instead of relying solely on the operator, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Wednesday, calling it an "urgent issue".

Almost 2-1/2 years after an earthquake and tsunami caused reactor meltdowns at Tokyo Electric Power Co's Fukushima Daiichi station, the toxic water that has plagued the clean-up from the start now threatens to flood out of the plant's confines Into the Pacific Ocean.

The Fukushima disaster is the world's worst nuclear crisis since Chernobyl, and the delays in getting to grips with the clean-up have caused global concern.

"The contaminated water problem is one that the Japanese people have a high level of interest in and is an urgent issue to deal with," Abe told reporters after attending a meeting of the government's task force on the disaster.

"Rather than relying on Tokyo Electric, the government will take measures," he said.

Abe said he ordered Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Toshimitsu Motegi to urgently deal with the water situation and ensure Tokyo Electric takes appropriate action to deal with the clean-up, which is expected to take more than 40 years and cost $11 billion.
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Radioactive water emergency at Fukushima ‘beyond Tepco’s control’

06/08 10:56 CET
Japan’s devastated nuclear plant at Fukushima is facing a new emergency due to radioactive water underground that is threatening to rise to the surface.

The operator Tepco (Tokyo Electric Power Company) is struggling to contain water that is seeping into the Pacific Ocean.

It has released a video of a probe from one of the reactors.

The country’s Nuclear Regulatory Authority says a barrier has already been breached and the leak could accelerate rapidly.

“The situation is already beyond Tepco’s control. Otherwise they’d already have taken proper measures. 
They are doing everything they can but but there are no perfect solutions,” said Masashi Goto, a retired nuclear engineer who worked on several Tepco plants.
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Next, the Great Fed Taper slammed back onto the agenda again as yet more signs of “recovery” appeared on both sides of the Atlantic, with bond holder’s fretting about future losses and stock market longs nervously eyeing the coming traditional crash season. Having painted itself into a corner, the Bernanke Fed can only talk itself into a confused puzzle, having long ago run out of ammunition save for ever less effective QE. If a Great Inflation is to be avoided the Fed needs to take action to start ending its QE heroine. But my take is that like Japan, the Fed actually wants the Great Inflation, merely that Bernanke wants it to occur on his successors watch. We live in the lawless age of the  Janus faced Fed.

"In the long run, the gold price has to go up in relation to paper money. There is no other way. To what price, that depends on the scale of the inflation - and we know that inflation will continue."

Nicholas L. Deak

Aug. 6, 2013, 4:20 p.m. EDT

U.S. stocks fall as Fed talks timing of taper

Analyst: Trade gap reduction may signal Europe recession near end

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks extended losses into a second day Tuesday as Federal Reserve official Charles Evans said the economy should be able to shoulder reduced Fed asset purchases later this year.

“It’s more of this taper tempest that we seem to go into. The market gets a little confused; it seems fine as long as the talk around taper is around data, but it gets flustered when you talk about the calendar,” said Jim Dunigan, managing executive for investments at PNC Wealth Management.

“There appears to be a lot on our plates as we get into fall season, with budget talks, a new Fed chair and the debt ceiling, which might lead the market to churn here a bit,” said Dunigan, who added that the market has reached an inflection point, given its “fairly significant upside performance,” with the S&P 500 up 19% so far this year.
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'Rate rises threaten crash in every asset'

The value of almost all investments, including shares, bonds and property, could fall if investors believe that interest rates are about to return to normal, a senior fund manager has warned.

Ben Inker, the co-head of asset allocation at GMO, a giant American asset manager, said the US Federal Reserve's policy of low interest rates had boosted the value of almost all assets and that any expectation that rates would rise risked triggering a reversal.

When returns on cash are low, investors switch to other assets in the search for higher income. This increased demand pushes up prices.

"By pulling down both today’s cash [interest] rate and the market expectation of future cash rates, the Fed has increased the relative attractiveness of pretty much all assets other than cash and, as a consequence, their prices have risen," Mr Inker wrote in a recent research note.

"Since 2009 it has been difficult to avoid making money in the financial markets. Conventional bonds, inflation-linked bonds, commodities, credit, equities, real estate – everything – has been bid up as a consequence of the very low expected returns of cash."

But he warned that this gave today’s markets "a vulnerability that has not existed through most of history".

"Today’s valuations only make sense in light of low expected cash rates. Remove that expectation, and pretty much every asset across the board is vulnerable to a fall in price, as the rising real discount rate plays no favourites," Mr Inker said.

He added: "We have known this for a while, but the trouble is that there is no easy way to resolve this problem. There is no asset class you can hold that would be expected to do well if the real discount rate rises from here."

In the UK at least, first signs of the onset of the Great Inflation to come. Below the Telegraph’s top counter espionage man covers rising prices in the UK’s leading supermarket chains. A repeat of the 1970s on steroids lies ahead, if QE continues forever. Can kicking has reached the end of the road.

"Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring classes of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money."

Daniel Webster

Sainsbury's prices rising at more than twice the rate of Tesco, according to industry data

Sainsbury’s is increasing the price of its food ahead of rival Tesco, according to previously unseen industry data.

The data add a new twist to the price row between Sainsbury’s and Tesco over Tesco’s Price Promise scheme, which pledges to match the price of brand and own-brand food at its rivals.

According to industry data seen by The Telegraph, in the four weeks to July 7, the average item price at Sainsbury’s increased by 5.2pc compared with the same period a year ago, while prices at Tesco increased by 2.4pc.

During this four-week period, Sainsbury’s sales growth of 3pc appears to have been driven by the increase in prices, with volumes declining 2.1pc.

The average item price at Morrisons also rose by 5.2pc during the period, while Asda’s rose by just 1.9pc.
The price increases have been calculated through a year-on-year comparison of the value and number of items in customers’ baskets.

UK economic recovery gains pace in July, says NIESR

The UK's economic recovery gained pace in July, according to leading think-tank NIESR, as it judged that growth picked up to 0.7pc in the last three months.

The UK's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.7pc in the three months to the end of July, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), offering the latest evidence that the recovery is gaining strength.

The rate estimated by the respected forecaster represents an increase in pace from the 0.6pc recorded by officials for the second quarter of 2013, which itself doubled the 0.3pc growth seen in the first three months of the year.

"These estimates suggest a narrowing of the UK’s large negative output gap," NIESR said, referring to the difference between its actual and potential growth.

"Consumer spending growth has underpinned the recent gains in economic momentum, in spite of the continued decline of real consumer wages."

For the year as a whole, NIESR predicts growth of 1.2 pc, rising to 1.8pc cent in 2014. However, the think-tank does not expect the UK's economic output to pass its early-2008 peak until 2015.

The positive growth estimate followed upbeat economic figures earlier on Tuesday.

British industrial output grew at the quickest pace in more than two years in June, official figures showed. Within that, manufacturing posted the first rise across all its sub-sectors since 1992.

"Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the 'hidden' confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights."

Alan Greenspan. 1966.

Green Price War Breaks Out to Spark Interest in Electrics

By Keith Naughton & Tim Higgins - Aug 7, 2013 5:01 AM GMT
As the auto industry struggled to recover from the recession, it swore off the deep discounting that destroyed profits and led to disaster. Now, a price war has erupted in the industry’s smallest segment: electric cars.

General Motors Co. (GM)’s $5,000 price cut yesterday on its Chevrolet Volt plug-in electric vehicle came in response to rapid-fire discounting on battery-powered models this year. It began with Nissan Motor Co. (7201) slicing $6,400 off the sticker of its Leaf electric car in January, followed by price cuts from Ford Motor Co. (F) and Honda Motor Co. on their EVs.

That left GM’s Volt alone atop the price ladder for mainstream plug-in electrics. Volt sales sagged 3.3 percent last month and its almost $40,000 sticker price made for a bad comparison on Internet searches of competitors such as the $25,010 Toyota Prius. So GM cut the price to $34,995 on a model on which it already loses money.

“It’s a competitive nightmare out there, so you have to play within the realm of what others are doing,” said Jeff Schuster, a Troy, Michigan-based analyst with researcher LMC Automotive. “The industry has gotten away from price wars in mass use, but in this area, it’s alive and well. You have to play the game.”

Detroit has been worried the price-war game will play on a grander stage ever since the yen began plunging last year. That 18 percent drop since October, encouraged by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, enables Japanese automakers to reduce prices while protecting profits. Nissan has cut prices on seven models in the U.S., while Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) is offering no-interest auto loans and earned a record quarterly profit of $5.7 billion, the most ever by a nonfinancial Japanese company.

So far, the green-car price war amounts to more of a skirmish than an all-out assault because sales of the battery powered cars are so small. Even with all the deals on these high-tech marvels, battery-powered cars will remain a slender slice of the U.S. auto market, according to LMC.
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At the Comex silver depositories Tuesday final figures were: Registered 41.83 Moz, Eligible 122.08 Moz, Total 163.91 Moz.  


Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Still think the stock markets not rigged, think again. Below the Journal on one of the best known secrets on Wall Street, some traders are more equal than others. So tell me again, who really won  the disputes US elections in the electronic lawless noughties?

"Increasingly, the wealth of the modern world has come to be represented by financial assets rather than real assets, and this to me is a very unhealthy situation, because financial assets are inherently unstable. Financial assets (currencies, bonds, mortgages, stocks, bank credit, etc.) can be quickly and violently reduced in value, or destroyed completely by either inflation or deflation."

Donald J. Hoppe

August 5, 2013, 10:35 p.m. ET

FBI Finds Holes in System Protecting Economic Data

FBI finds 'operational vulnerabilities' involving 'black boxes' used to control the release of sensitive economic data

The Federal Bureau of Investigation has discovered vulnerabilities in the government's system for preventing market-moving economic reports from leaking to traders before public release.

Law-enforcement officials found "a number of operational vulnerabilities" involving "black boxes" used by several departments to control the release of sensitive economic data such as the monthly unemployment rate, according to a report by the inspector general at the Commerce Department.

The report said it was possible to subvert the system, which was designed to prevent media companies from sending economic data to traders early.

The report, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, is part of a broad law-enforcement inquiry into whether media firms or any of their employees are sending government data to traders before the agreed-upon embargoes expire, which could violate insider-trading laws.

The FBI has long been concerned about what investigators view as suspicious trading activity that occurs just before some government releases of sensitive economic data, according to people familiar with the investigation. Federal agents have spent years trying to determine if that activity is due to misconduct during the formal release period, which is known as a lockup.

The black boxes are key to the government's control of the data. Media firms in the business of reporting economic data are required to connect their computers to the black boxes, which operate like a trapdoor, releasing articles and data streams when the embargoes lift. In theory, all the data should be released at the 
same time.

The investigative report, which was completed in May and obtained through an open-records request, indicates that the FBI's concerns are based on testing of black boxes at its Quantico, Va. facilities. The report didn't say whether the FBI knows of any specific instance in which anyone knowingly exploited the weaknesses. Many of the technical flaws involve different ways in which the black boxes can be bypassed.

The report focused primarily on a short-lived probe of Bloomberg L.P., which was exonerated of any wrongdoing. The Bloomberg issue began in May 2012 when the media firm installed new devices in the Commerce Department to speed up delivery of data to subscribers, according to the Commerce report.

In its own testing, Bloomberg found it could get around the black box in several ways, such as sending data using different electrical current.

Bloomberg reported the flaws to the Commerce Department last summer and didn't use the devices in any data releases, Bloomberg told investigators, according to the report. After Bloomberg alerted the department, the FBI conducted a "consensual seizure" of its computers for testing.

----The FBI's testing led it to discover other methods to get around the black boxes in ways that could "adversely impact the timed release of sensitive economic data," according to the report.

For one, media firms, if unobserved, could simply turn off the power on the black boxes, the FBI cautioned. Data also could be surreptitiously routed around the black boxes using concealed wireless devices or even a phone line or cable.

Such "concealed IT devices may still be in use" in lockup rooms across the government, according to a summary of the investigative report.

The fact that these devices could be "concealed to intentionally disguise their presence…should be made known to the proper personnel," the FBI said, according to the report.
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Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

J. M.  Keynes

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished July:
DJIA: +164 Up. NASDAQ: +167 Up. SP500: +195 Up. The Fed’s final bubble still inflates.  

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