Baltic Dry Index. 1102 +11
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
"As fewer and fewer people have confidence in paper as a store of value, the price of gold will continue to rise. The history of fiat money is little more than a register of monetary follies and inflations. Our present age merely affords another entry in this dismal register."
Hans F. Sennholz
With the situation in the Middle East bad and
getting worse, this is time for a belt and braces approach. Normally in summer
I only keep the petrol tank half full, no need to haul around needless extra
weight. In winter that extra weight might come in useful. But this year, it’s
better to be safe than sorry. If Egypt turns into another Syria, a nasty energy
spike lies ahead for the coming winter. As it is, the Egyptian economy is going
to need an IMF bailout assuming, no further worsening in the political
situation in Egypt. If the west withholds that bailout chaos will result unless
Saudi Arabia or China steps in.
Below, signs that the west is about to make a
colossal error by adding to the instability rather than pursuing its own best
interest. Cutting off aid now will only
make the life of ordinary Egyptians very much harder, without doing anything to
solve Egypt’s political problem. But that looks to be what the west’s
do-gooders are about to implement. The west appears to be about to start
flicking lit matches at the powder keg of Egypt. Stay long physical gold and
silver and keep the fuel tank fully topped up.
"The history of paper money is an account of abuse, mismanagement, and financial disaster."
Richard M. Ebeling
Commodities: Egyptian bloodbath threatens crucial routes for oil and gas supplies
Egypt is a key bottleneck in the global oil industry. Should the current turmoil in the North African country get any worse, a potential oil spike could damage any nascent economic recovery.
After
last week’s bloody crackdown by the Egyptian army, fears of a disruption of oil
supplies to the West have boosted the oil price. Brent crude prices were propelled to a four-month high of
$111.23 on Thursday. If the turmoil gets worse – or unrest spreads to other countries – the
risk premium currently factored into the price of crude is likely to increase
further.
Egypt is
not a major energy exporter, producing a nominal amount of the world’s oil and
gas. The North African country appears at number 54 on the list of the world’s
largest oil exporters, producing about 0.9pc of the world’s oil and 1.8pc of
global natural gas supply.
However,
Egypt plays a vital role in international energy markets through the operation
of the Suez Canal and the Suez-Mediterranean (Sumed) pipeline. These are vital
pieces of infrastructure in the global oil market.
Last
year, about 7pc of all seaborne traded oil and 13pc of liquefied natural gas
(LNG) travelled through the Suez Canal, according to data collected by the US
Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The Suez
Canal, a 101-mile link between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, and the
200-mile Sumed pipeline are strategic routes for Persian Gulf oil and gas
shipments to Europe and North America.
Closure
of these two routes would add an estimated 2,700 miles of transit from Saudi
Arabia to the United States around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing costs and
shipping time.
Hopes are
high, however, that both the canal and pipeline will continue to operate as
normal. Maritime insurers appear to be relaxed about the situation at the
moment, but one, Skuld, has warned ships’ crews not to go ashore.
----The Egyptian uncertainty will continue to boost the oil price, but the situation in neighbouring Libya is also a concern. Workers at ports in Libya have been on strike for a number of weeks, with the protests resulting in a drop in Libya’s oil exports.
“If the
blockade of these oil terminals continues, the state will be obliged to use its
power, and all the forces at its disposal, including the army,” the Libyan
prime minister, Ali Zeidan, said on Friday.
More
Saudi Arabia warns against pressing Egypt on crackdown
ARIS |(Reuters) - Saudi Arabia on Sunday warned the West against putting pressure on Egypt's military-backed government to halt a crackdown on supporters of ousted Islamist President Mohamed Mursi.
"We will not achieve anything through threats," Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal, told reporters through an interpreter during a visit to Paris.
The prince spoke after meeting French President Francois Hollande, who on Thursday called for a swift end to a state of emergency imposed by Egypt's military authorities.
EU foreign ministers meet in Brussels this week to review what steps to take following a bloody crackdown since Wednesday on supporters of Mursi, deposed by the military on July 3. More than 800 people have died in the violence.
"If the situation calms down, very good. If on the contrary violence continues, then we can and we probably must take decisions," France's Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius told France 2 television on Sunday.
He said cutting aid would be difficult, as EU money allowed "Egyptians to eat and receive medical treatment". However, "loans are easier to cut," he added.
Both Hollande and the Saudi minister called for fresh elections in Egypt. Egypt's army has already promised an early presidential vote in a transition plan it set out after Mursi's overthrow.
The United States sharply criticized the violence and cancelled jointed military exercises with is ally that had been due next month. But Washington has not cut its $1.3 billion in military aid and about $250 million in economic aid to Egypt.
More
Growing number of U.S. lawmakers urge suspension of Egyptian aid
WASHINGTON |(Reuters) - A growing bipartisan chorus of U.S. lawmakers said on Sunday that the United States should suspend its $1.5 billion in military and economic aid to Egypt following a violent crackdown on protesters that has left nearly 800 dead.
Senator John McCain, a top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said he now supported suspending the aid, even though he initially believed it should be continued after the Egyptian military removed democratically elected President Mohamed Mursi from office last month.
"I wanted to give (Egypt's military leaders) an opportunity to do the right thing after the coup had taken place," McCain said on CNN's "State of the Union" program. But after the crackdown, aid should be withheld, he said.
More
EU weighs aid, commercial links with Egypt
BRUSSELS |(Reuters) - European Union governments will this week question how to best use their economic ties with Egypt to pressure Cairo's army-backed rulers into finding a peaceful compromise with supporters of deposed Islamist President Mohamed Mursi.
At stake could be a 5 billion euro ($6.7 billion) package of grants and loans promised by the EU, its member governments and international financial institutions last year, as well as various trade incentives, EU officials and experts say.
The EU's ability to exert immediate economic pressure on Cairo is limited - much of its current aid is already stopped because of inadequate democratic reforms.
But the hope is that such a signal could help end a bloody crackdown by the government against Mursi's Muslim Brotherhood, in which around 800 people have died, and prevent further bloodshed between the two sides.
President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, two of the most senior EU officials, said in a statement on Sunday the 28-member bloc should "urgently review" its relations with Cairo to try to end the violence.
Senior EU diplomats will meet in Brussels on Monday to decide which areas of economic cooperation could be targeted and prepare a possible meeting of EU foreign ministers to be held in the next two weeks.
More
Egypt's Brotherhood cries foul over prison deaths
By
Crispian Balmer and Yasmine Saleh
CAIRO |
Sun Aug 18, 2013 5:44pm EDT
(Reuters)
- Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, fighting for its political survival, has accused
security forces of killing dozens of detained Islamists, upping the pressure in
a crisis that has rocked the Arab world's most populous state.
At least
850 people have died since last Wednesday in clashes pitting followers of
deposed Islamist President Mohamed Mursi against the army-backed government in
the worst bloodletting in Egypt's modern history.
As
Western anxiety grows, Egypt's army chief vowed to stand firm in the face of
violence on Sunday, calling on the Brotherhood to bow to the will of the people
and accept the July 3 removal of Mursi, which followed mammoth street protests.
----The Interior Ministry said 36 Brotherhood members died during an attempted prison breakout on Sunday near the capital, saying the prisoners had been suffocated by tear gas.
Offering a very different version of events, a legal source told Reuters 38 men had died from asphyxiation in the back of a crammed police van. The Brotherhood, battling to reverse the overthrow of Mursi, held the authorities responsible.
"The murders show the violations and abuses that political detainees who oppose the July 3 coup get subjected to," it said.
More
While no one can predict what happens next, an
anarchic desolate future for Egypt lies ahead if western aid is cut off and
tourism collapses. As we near the end of
summer it’s time to scale back risk. The Fed’s final bubble in stocks and bonds
will meet its pin, if we light up the Middle East from Libya out to Iran.
Compared to that growing risk, hitting the corporate number, or doctoring the
GDP figures pales in comparison. This is no time to be over leveraged in highly
uncertain times.
In other news, it’s all dark skies too. Bernanke’s
loose lips to the WSJ hack back in June, has sunk the Indian economy.
Collateral damage to Washington. Another unintended consequence of the Great
Nixonian Error of fiat money. Money is simply too important to be left to
corrupt politicians and crony central banksters.
India Markets Plunge Pressures Singh as Economy Teeters
By Kartik Goyal & Jeanette Rodrigues - Aug 19, 2013 5:33 AM GM
India’s biggest stock
market slide in almost two years, surging bond yields and an unprecedented
plunge in the rupee are pressuring officials for fresh steps to stem capital
outflows and revive a struggling economy. The S&P BSE Sensex (SENSEX) Index sank 0.8 percent as of 9:43 a.m. in Mumbai, extending the 4 percent loss on Aug. 16, while the rupee touched an all-time low of 62.46 per dollar. The yield on the government bond due May 2023 rose 8 basis points to 8.98 percent, the highest on a 10-year note since 2008.
The
market rout underscores the failure of months of measures to contain outflows,
from higher interest rates to gold import
curbs. Foreigners sold a net $3 billion of Indian stocks and bonds in July as
the slowest growth in a decade made Asia’s third-largest economy vulnerable
to a pullout of funds from emerging markets, spurred by
speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will cool stimulus.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-18/india-markets-plunge-pressues-singh-as-economy-teeters.html
Thailand Cuts Growth Outlook as Economy Enters Recession
By Suttinee Yuvejwattana
- Aug 19, 2013 7:10 AM GM
Thailand cut
its 2013 growth forecast as the country entered recession for the first time
since the global financial crisis, with rising household debt limiting central
bank scope to support the economy. Stocks fell. Gross domestic product unexpectedly shrank 0.3 percent in the three months through June from the previous quarter, when it contracted a revised 1.7 percent, the National Economic and Social Development Board said in Bangkok today. Only one of 11 analysts surveyed had predicted a decline. The economy rose a less-than-estimated 2.8 percent from a year earlier.
Thai
policy makers are struggling to sustain growth as government spending plans are
delayed, while a slowdown in China curbs demand for exports from Southeast
Asian nations
More
Ringgit Weakens to Three-Year Low on Current-Account Forecast
By Liau Y-Sing - Aug 19, 2013 2:45 AM GMT
Malaysia’s ringgit touched a three-year low before official data this week
that economists predict will show a narrower current-account surplus and faster
inflation. Government bonds advanced. The excess in the broadest measure of trade shrank to 200 million ringgit ($61 million) in the second quarter from 8.7 billion ringgit in the previous three months, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey before data due Aug. 21. Consumer prices rose 2 percent in July from a year earlier, the most since March 2012, a separate poll showed ahead of figures to be released the same day
----The
Federal
Reserve will release the minutes of its July meeting on Aug. 21, which may
yield clues on when it will start cutting stimulus that has spurred inflows to emerging
markets.
More
We close for the day noting that this is an
interesting week. Risk off I think. The price of money is going higher.
People
of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but
the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some
contrivance to raise prices.
Adam
Smith. The Wealth of Nations.
Who’s Going to This Year’s Jackson Hole Fed Conference?
By Victoria McGrane
In most years, the annual, exclusive conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyo., is noted for who is there — a who’s who of global central banking.
This
year, the conference – scheduled for Aug. 22 through 24 – is drawing attention
for who isn’t going, notably Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke.
It’s the
first time Mr. Bernanke hasn’t gone to Jackson Hole since he succeeded Alan
Greenspan in 2006. Mr. Greenspan missed only one Jackson Hole in his
tenure, the 1987 conference held less than two weeks after the Senate confirmed
him for the first time.
Mr.
Bernanke isn’t the only no show. Mark Carney, the new head of the
Bank of England, won’t be there. Neither will Mario Draghi,
president of the European Central Bank. His predecessor, Jean-Claude
Trichet, was a regular. But Charles Bean, No. 2 at the Bank of
England, and ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio are on the list
this year.
Only
three of the seven members of the Fed board of governors are making the trek:
Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen, Jeremy Stein and Jerome Powell.
More
The
statesman who should attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought
to employ their capitals, would not only load himself with a most unnecessary
attention, but assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to
no single person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere
be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough
to fancy himself fit to exercise it.
Adam
Smith. The Wealth of Nations.
At the Comex silver depositories Friday final figures were: Registered 39.23 Moz,
Eligible 125.99 Moz, Total 165.22 Moz.
Crooks and
Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Today, more on our lawless age. “If you see
something say something.” Below, I see a gross abuse of power and the intent of
Parliament. A crude attempt at press intimidation and a not so subtle hint to
the Guardian’s lawyer-journalist Greenwald that traveling may be hazardous to
his health and liberty.
Yes we can!
President Richard M Obama.
Partner of Glenn Greenwald held under Terrorism Act
The partner of a Guardian journalist who wrote stories exposing mass American surveillance programmes was held for nine hours by police under the Terrorism Act.
By Claire
Carter 10:38PM BST 18 Aug 2013
David
Miranda was passing through London's Heathrow Airport today on his way home to
Rio de Janeiro.
Mr
Miranda, who lives with the reporter Glenn Greenwald, the journalist who
interviewed American whistleblower Edward Snowden, was stopped at 8am returning
from a trip to Berlin.
The
Guardian reported that Mr Miranda was questioned under schedule seven of the
Terrorism Act 2000 which applies only at airports, ports and border areas,
allowing officers to stop, search, question and detain individuals.
The
28-year-old was held for nine hours - the maximum the law allows before
officers must release or formally arrest the individual - before being released
without charge.
But the
newspaper reported his electronic possessions including his mobile phone,
laptop, camera, memory sticks, DVDs and games consoles were confiscated.
While in
Berlin, Mr Miranda visited Laura Poitras, the US film-maker who has also been
working on the Snowden files with Mr Greenwald and the Guardian.
''This is
a profound attack on press freedoms and the news gathering process,'' said Mr
Greenwald.
''To
detain my partner for a full nine hours while denying him a lawyer, and then
seize large amounts of his possessions, is clearly intended to send a message
of intimidation to those of us who have been reporting on the NSA and GCHQ.
''The
actions of the UK pose a serious threat to journalists everywhere.
''But the
last thing it will do is intimidate or deter us in any way from doing our job
as journalists.
''Quite
the contrary: it will only embolden us more to continue to report
aggressively.''
The
Guardian said that according to official figures, more than 97% of examinations
under schedule 7 last less than an hour, and only one in 2,000 people detained
is kept for more than six hours.
Since
June 5, Mr Greenwald has written a series of stories revealing the NSA's
electronic surveillance programmes.
More
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little
temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.
Benjamin Franklin.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished July:
DJIA: +164 Up. NASDAQ: +167 Up. SP500: +195 Up. The
Fed’s final bubble still inflates.
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