Baltic Dry Index. 1062 -05
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
The [US] government used new formulas to calculate
GDP this quarter and revised its reading for growth during the first quarter to
an annual pace of 1.1 percent. The new formulas were also applied to estimates
dating back to 1929.
It may be doctoring the data, but doctored data in
America and China is just what today’s Muppets want to see. Markets jumped on
the iffy presumption that all is well in the world and the Great Disconnect can
roll on. Great Disconnects can go on longer than many suspect, as we saw with
Great Britain posturing as a Great Power in the 20s and 30s, in reality having
gone bust fighting World War One, a war which ended the rule of Empires.
Reality intruded in the 40s and John Bull went from bulldog to Uncle Sam’s poodle.
With America in self-indulgent isolationism, if not John Bull blocking
murderous communism, who? But that’s a story for a different sort of blog.
For now it’s to be another chapter in MacKay’s “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.” Stay long physical
precious metals for when reality sets back in. If the Great Recession really is
over and if we are to continue on QE forever, forever, the Great Inflation
comes next, followed by societal collapse. On the other hand if the doctored
data is merely popular delusion and madness, our 1940s lies ahead.
The
price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S.
residents, increased 0.3 percent in the second quarter, compared with an
increase of 1.2 percent in the first. Excluding food and energy prices, the
price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8 percent in the second
quarter compared with 1.4 percent in the first.
U.S. economy grew faster than expected in 2nd quarter
By Ylan Q. Mui, 2:18 PM
The economy grew faster than expected over the spring, according to new data released Wednesday morning, dispelling fears that government spending cuts would undercut the recovery’s momentum.The nation’s gross domestic product increased at a 1.7 percent annual rate during the second quarter of 2013, almost twice as fast as many economists had predicted. The data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed consumer spending remained strong despite higher taxes and businesses increased their investments in inventory. The real estate market, both residential and commercial construction, was also essential to the expansion.
----Part of the reason for the faster pace was that reductions in government spending were not as painful as expected. Federal budget cuts lowered GDP by just one-tenth of a percent last quarter, while it had shaved off more than one percentage point at the end of 2012.
In addition, there were signs that the economy may have picked up more steam since spring. A private estimate of labor market growth by human resources provider ADP that was also released Wednesday morning showed the country added 200,000 jobs in July. It marks the second month of strong job creation, with hiring by small businesses driving the increase.
----“More and more of the economic tea leaves are pointing in the same direction- toward a growth revival ahead,” said Scott andersen, chief economist for Bank of the West.
The
government used new formulas to calculate GDP this quarter and revised its
reading for growth during the first quarter to an annual pace of 1.1 percent.
The new formulas were also applied to estimates dating back to 1929.
More
China Pledges to Keep Growth Within ‘Reasonable Zone’: Economy
By Bloomberg News - Aug 1, 2013 6:25 AM GMT
China’s government pledged to prevent growth from slipping below a “reasonable” level as
manufacturing gauges gave a mixed picture of the strength of the world’s
second-biggest economy. The nation “can’t blindly stimulate economic growth, nor can it allow economic growth to decelerate to a level out of the reasonable zone,” the State Council Information Office said in Beijing after a Purchasing Managers’ Index (CPMINDX) reading of 50.3 for July, up from 50.1 in June. A gauge from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics fell to 47.7, an 11-month low.
More
Asian Stocks Advance on China PMI, Fed as Yen Weakens
By Emma O’Brien & Kyoungwha Kim - Aug 1, 2013 5:53 AM GMT
Asian
equities rose the most in three weeks and U.S. stock
futures climbed as China’s manufacturing unexpectedly strengthened and
the Federal
Reserve maintained its bond-buying program. Copper gained and the
yen fell. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 1 percent to 133.61 at 1:52 p.m. in Tokyo, poised for the biggest gain since July 11. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures added 0.4 percent. Copper futures in London climbed 0.6 percent, while West Texas Intermediate crude added 0.5 percent. Silver lost 1 percent. The yen dropped against all its major counterparts and India’s rupee lost 0.4 percent.
A Chinese government purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing posted a reading of 50.3 for July, topping the median forecast of 49.8 in a Bloomberg survey and above the 50 level that signals expansion. While data in the U.S. showed gross domestic product grew more than economists estimated in the second quarter, the Fed said yesterday persistently low inflation poses a risk. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England review interest rates today.
“Global investors are encouraged as we have stronger GDP data in the U.S. and at the same time, the Fed sent a dovish signal that the stronger growth won’t lead to a quick reversal of stimulus,” Dariusz Kowalczyk, a senior strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong, said by phone today. “Business expectations in China improved and you have a better outlook for more sustainable growth globally.”
More
I leave it to the excellent economics writer and
advisor Mike Shedlock to cut through the popular delusion.
About that "Beat the Street" GDP Number
GDP beat second quarter estimates of 1 percent easily.
However, the BEA revised first quarter growth down from 1.7% to 1.1%.
Is this a good thing, a bad thing, or nonsense?
The correct answer is "nonsense". One look at BEA GDP Release is all it takes to determine the answer.
Is this a good thing, a bad thing, or nonsense?
The correct answer is "nonsense". One look at BEA GDP Release is all it takes to determine the answer.
---- How convenient, otherwise real GDP would have
printed at 0.8%, prices constant.
Yet, the yoy rate of real final sales per capita is below 1% for the second quarter in a row, whereas the second quarter annualized rate is near contracting. Had the deflator been reported at the rate in Q1, the yoy and 2-qtr. annualized real final sales per capita rates would have been reported as contracting.
Yet, the yoy rate of real final sales per capita is below 1% for the second quarter in a row, whereas the second quarter annualized rate is near contracting. Had the deflator been reported at the rate in Q1, the yoy and 2-qtr. annualized real final sales per capita rates would have been reported as contracting.
More
In better real news for the global economy, it
looks like we will be getting an inflation break from north American grains.
Corn Declines as Cool U.S. Weather Boosts Record Crop Prospects
By Phoebe Sedgman - Aug 1, 2013 4:03 AM GMT
Corn dropped after its worst run of monthly losses since 1996 as cooler
weather boosts optimism that output in the U.S., the world’s biggest grower,
will climb to a record and increase global supplies. Corn for December delivery fell as much as 0.5 percent to $4.765 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade and was at $4.775 by 10:53 a.m. in Singapore. Soybeans for delivery in November were little changed at $12.0575 a bushel. The oilseed slumped to $11.9425 yesterday, the lowest since January 2012.
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of eight agricultural commodities tumbled 17 percent this year as corn lost 32 percent and soybeans dropped 14 percent on expectations U.S. harvests will be the biggest ever. Near to below-normal temperatures during the next six to 10 days will favor corn pollination in the Midwest, DTN said in a report yesterday. Rain on July 30 in the central Midwest was more than some forecasters expected, Commodity Weather Group said yesterday.
More
Palm Drops on Concern Record U.S. Soybean Crop to Boost Supplies
By Ranjeetha Pakiam - Aug 1, 2013 6:18 AM GMT
Palm oil
declined on speculation that a record soybean crop in the U.S. will add to
global oilseed supplies, reducing demand for the tropical oil. The contract for delivery in October lost as much as 0.6 percent to 2,222 ringgit ($686) a metric ton on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, and was at 2,231 ringgit by the close of the morning trade in Kuala Lumpur. Futures dropped 4.6 percent last month, the most since February, after reaching the lowest level since October 2009 on July 26.
The U.S. soybean harvest will climb 13 percent to 93.1 million tons, bringing global production to 285.9 million tons in 2013-2014 from 268 million tons a year earlier, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Palm oil output, accounting for 35 percent of world cooking-oil supply, will expand 5 percent to 58.1 million tons, the USDA estimates.
More
In the not so good news camp, was Latin America,
the IMF and Greece. Greece is still going to default unless the Europeans write
off more Greek debt. While Latin America is tired of funding an IMF that’s
become a European bailout tax on the rest of the world. The rest of the world
can see that the euro’s dying, even if Europol’s and the BIS are still in deep delusion.
In EU employment news, Europe’s spin meister’s were out in force clutching at
straws.
"Sooner or later both the Greek population and international creditors will tire of fighting a losing battle, leading to a break-up of the currency union as Greece pulls out, probably followed by other countries"
Douglas McWilliams, chief executive of the Centre of Economics and Business Research.
Brazil expresses Latin America's fury as IMF continues to support Greece
Brazil has angrily attacked last week's £1.6bn International Monetary Fund payment to Greece on the same day as a report from the fund identified a new £9.6bn black hole in Greek finances.
Paulo
Nogueira Batista, who represents Brazil and 10 other central and South American
countries on the IMF board, described the latest official assessment of Greek
debt repayment prospects as confirming his "worst fears".
"Neverending
economic depression and severe unemployment levels have led to political
discord. Implementation has been unsatisfactory in almost all areas; growth and
debt sustainability assumptions continue to be over-optimistic," Mr
Batista said in a unusually frank statement that has laid bare the deep IMF
divisions over Greece.
----The
comments on Wednesday came as the IMF warned of a €4.4bn "financing
gap" in Greece next year and €6.5bn in 2015, as well as making a request
to the eurozone to find additional debt relief for the country worth some
€7.4bn next year.
As well
as the funding shortfalls, implying a major re-negotiation of the Greek bailout
before next summer, the IMF is concerned over Greece's ability to pay its
debts, including €28.4bn in loans from the fund.
----Brazil and other developing countries are growing increasingly angry over their liabilities for some of the largest loans in the IMF's history, which are being used to prop up the eurozone and the EU single currency.
As well
as warning of a high risk of Greece going "off-track", the IMF said
that if eurozone countries did not write down more Greek debt, a move opposed
by Germany, the Mediterranean country's "capacity to repay the fund would
likely be insufficient".
Mr
Batista described the report as "one step short of openly contemplating
the possibility of a default or payment delays by Greece on its liabilities to
the IMF".
The
abstention by the 11 Latin American states from the IMF decision to continue
support for Greece underlines growing concerns over the Greek government's
ability to pay its debts unless the eurozone accepts huge losses on loans.
More
First fall in euro zone unemployment points to muted recovery
BRUSSELS |(Reuters) - The number of people out of a job in the euro zone has fallen for the first time in more than two years, the latest sign the bloc may make a muted recovery from recession later this year.
Falling spending in June by shoppers in Germany, France and Spain, however, will dampen any early celebrations, but low annual inflation - stable at 1.6 percent in July - means the European Central Bank is able to act if the recovery falters.
In June, 24,000 fewer Europeans in the single currency area were jobless compared with May, EU statistics agency Eurostat said on Wednesday, the first decrease since April 2011.
More
We end for today with a warning from China to
America and Japan. “It would be a big historic mistake to put us to the test.”
No one in the District of Crooks is listening, while Japan is preparing to
fight to the last American in a new war with China. Both it seems have
unsettled business to finish.
"Let
China sleep, for when she wakes the world will shake"
Napoleon.
Commentary: China's determination on territorial integrity unshakable by outside intervention
by Zhi LinfeiWASHINGTON, July 30 (Xinhua) -- U.S. Senate on Monday passed a resolution on the territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas, another move set to have negative ramifications on the renewed positive momentum in China-U.S. relations in recent months.
Disregarding the basic facts, the resolution bluntly "condemned" China for so-called "use of coercion, threats, or force" to assert territorial claims in the East and South China Seas. It reiterated the U.S. opposition to changing the status quo of the Diaoyu Islands, called the Senkakus by Japan, while reaffirming that the U.S.-Japan security treaty covers the group of rocky isles in the East China Sea.
In a statement issued Tuesday, Robert Menendez, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and sponsor of the resolution, claimed that it was aimed at calling for a "peaceful resolution" of those disputes, which will affect the future of a region poised to serve as an epicenter for global economic development in the 21st century.
However, the resolution is apparently self-contradictory as it will further complicate the disputes rather than pave the way for their peaceful resolution.
China is the wrong party to blame for the rising tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, which were provoked by Japan in the case of the Diaoyu dispute, and by the Philippines in the case of the disputes in the South China Sea.
Last year, the Japanese government took a unilateral action to "nationalize" the Diaoyu Islands, which were historically part of China's territory, in an attempt to legalize its act of theft. This is the origin of the current tensions in the East China Sea, in which China has shown enough patience and restraint in its moves to protect its territorial integrity.
And for a long time, the Philippine navy has used force to intimidate and arrest Chinese fishermen operating legally in the South China Sea.
The U.S. Senate's move also coincided with the recent conclusion of the fifth round of China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Washington, and the historic June summit held in California between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his U.S. counterpart Barack Obama.
These fruitful meetings have created a renewed momentum for the development of China-U.S. relations, with the two sides agreeing to work together to build a new type of major-country relationship based on mutual respect and win-win cooperation. In this way, they have vowed to break the historical curse of zero-sum game between a resident power and an emerging one.
The U.S. Senate attempts to kill two birds with one stone by reaffirming its support to Japan and the Philippines in its latest resolution. It aims to soothe the anxiety and anger of anti-China forces both at home and abroad at the recent improvement of China-U.S. ties, while serving its need to benefit from the tensions in the Asia-Pacific region to facilitate implementation of its rebalancing strategy.
But U.S. politicians have underestimated China's strong will and determination to protect the sovereignty and integrity of its territory, which will never be shaken by provocations and threats of use of force by any foreign country.
More
Commentary: Time for U.S. to curb Japan's right-wing risks
BEIJING, July 31 (Xinhua) -- While the world is raising its eyebrows about the offensive rightist remarks of some Japanese politicians, Washington, however, turns a blind eye to the irresponsible deeds of its longtime ally.The U.S. Senate unanimously adopted a resolution Monday, condemning the use of force to assert territorial claims to disputed islands in the East and South China Seas, which obviously makes China a target, and was naturally applauded by Tokyo.
Earlier, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden reiterated the strategy of "rebalance" toward the Asia-Pacific region in his trip to Asia. During his meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Singapore, he also mentioned the so-called "code of conduct" in South China Sea and the Diaoyu Islands.
Washington's deliberate abetment has well explained the increasing rampancy of Japan's rightists.
Abe and his cabinet members have repeatedly clamored to amend Japan's 66-year-old pacifist Constitution, which was masterminded by the United States after World War II.
Japanese Vice Prime Minister Taro Aso even went further to say that Japan should learn from Nazis' experience in constitutional revision.
To name just a few.
Why does Washington deliberately ignore Japan's rightist remarks and acts?
For one thing, it wants a stronger Japan to compete with China and Russia, which it regards as its potential rivals. To achieve this objective, Washington even encourages Japan to strengthen its military buildup.
As a matter of fact, by so doing, the United States is playing a dangerous game in the Asia-Pacific region.
It is known to all that Japan's right wing has taken various moves obviously aimed at covering the country's crimes during World War II.
For instance, just one day prior to U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's first trip to Tokyo in April, Abe visited Iwo Jima to attend a memorial service for Japanese soldiers killed in fierce fighting on the Pacific island with the U.S. soldiers during World War II.
Abe and Taro Aso also paid their respect to Japanese invaders died in World War II during their visits to Myanmar.
In May, Abe, wearing military uniform, posed inside a T-4 training jet plane of the Air Self-Defense Force with the number 731, which reminds people of the notorious Unit 731, a unit of the Imperial Japanese Army that undertook lethal human experiments during World War II.
More
You must not fight too often with one enemy, or you will teach
him all your art of war.
Napoleon.
At the Comex silver depositories Tuesday final figures were: Registered 46.36 Moz,
Eligible 117.15 Moz, Total 163.51 Moz. The
Comex website is today posting figures for August 6th, 2012. Hacked
or someone having a laugh?
Crooks and
Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
At what point does a bank become a criminal
enterprise, one half step up from John Gotti’s criminal enterprise? After serial criminality heaped on serial
criminality as we’ve recently discovered from Liebor to rigging commodities,
should any of the Mega banks still be licenced as banks?
Banks are an almost irresistible attraction for that element of our society which seeks unearned money.
J. Edgar Hoover
JPMorgan Accused by Siena Prosecutors in Monte Paschi Probe
By Sergio Di Pasquale, Sonia
Sirletti & Elisa Martinuzzi - Jul
31, 2013 1:31 PM GMT
Siena prosecutors accused JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and at least one of its
employees of obstructing regulators as part of a wider probe into Banca Monte
dei Paschi di Siena SpA’s purchase of Banca Antonveneta SpA. Prosecutors allege JPMorgan employees withheld information from regulators about a 1 billion-euro ($1.3 billion) financing the New York-based bank arranged for Monte Paschi’s takeover of Antonveneta in 2008, according to a July 30 court filing obtained by Bloomberg News. JPMorgan failed to oversee its employees properly, according to the filing, which didn’t identify any of them by name.
The documents mark the final stage before the authorities can request formal indictments, and it brings them a step closer to reconstructing how Monte Paschi’s former managers allegedly colluded to misrepresent the lender’s finances in the years before it sought a government bailout.
Prosecutors also accused former Monte Paschi bankers, including former chairman Giuseppe Mussari, General Manager Antonio Vigni, of obstructing regulators as well as market manipulation and falsifying market filings, according to the filing. Ex-Chief Financial Officer Marco Morelli, now head of Bank of America Corp. in Italy, was also accused of obstructing regulators.
JPMorgan said in a statement that the bank and its employees acted correctly, and it will “vigorously” defend itself. Morelli and his lawyer Riccardo Olivo didn’t immediately return calls for comment. Enrico De Martino, a lawyer for Vigni, and Fabio Pisillo, Mussari’s lawyer, didn’t immediately answer calls.
Monte Paschi bought its Italian competitor from Banco Santander SA (SAN) in 2008 for 9 billion euros, 36 percent more than what the Spanish lender paid for the Padua, Italy-based bank two months earlier.
More
"Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring classes of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money."
Daniel Webster.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished July:
DJIA: +164 Up. NASDAQ: +167 Up. SP500: +195 Up. The
Fed’s final bubble still inflates.
No comments:
Post a Comment