Baltic Dry Index. 996 -05
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
“But
I don’t want to go among mad people," John Bull remarked.
"Oh, you can’t help that," said the Barroso: "we’re all mad here. I’m mad. You’re mad."
"How do you know I’m mad?" said John Bull.
"You must be," said the Barroso, or you wouldn’t have come here.”
"Oh, you can’t help that," said the Barroso: "we’re all mad here. I’m mad. You’re mad."
"How do you know I’m mad?" said John Bull.
"You must be," said the Barroso, or you wouldn’t have come here.”
With
apologies to Lewis Carroll and Alice.
Under the Davos
Spring, so carefully crafted back in January, Euroland’s never ending crisis
was supposed to end this year. Chastised
Europeans were supposed to descend from the Alps of austerity and tribulation
and enter the Germanic plains of milk and honey, as model modern Germans. This
summer with the silly season in full session, the spin is that Europe has ended
its never ending crisis. Pulled along by a "booming" America, all is
now well in Club Med. The ECB’s Mario dei Pasche’s “whatever it takes” has
worked. Europeans have staggered out of the Alpine wilderness out on to the
European plains made for tanks.
For my part I
think Europe’s just staggered out of the Rockies and into Death Valley. The
Davos Spring and whatever it takes was all just cosmetic dressing intended to
get Germany past Chancellor Merkel’s re-election, now just six weeks away.
Ominously, the Baltic Dry Index has just fallen below 1000 again, signalling
slowing global trade. Japan’s vast monetisation and export trade war seems to
be going awry. America’s “boom” is so healthy it just forced the Fed into the
central bank U-turns of all U-turns. QE forever really is forever.
Below, you make
the European call.
“Would
you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?"
"That depends a good deal on where you want to get to."
"I don't much care where –"
"Then it doesn't matter which way you go.”
"That depends a good deal on where you want to get to."
"I don't much care where –"
"Then it doesn't matter which way you go.”
Lewis
Carroll and Europe in Wonderland.
Global Economy: Seeking European signs of sturdier global rebound
LONDON |(Reuters) - A tentative view that the global economy is emerging from its lull could harden into conventional wisdom by the end of this week if, as expected, data show the euro zone's lengthy recession has ended.
While Europe is still the world's biggest trading region, some of its recent major exports - financial market panic, banking scares and political uncertainty - have dragged on the world economy over the last three years.
There are now signs of a nascent recovery, led by Germany and perhaps Britain.
Wednesday's data are expected to show the euro zone economy grew 0.2 percent in the second quarter, according to a Reuters poll. That would mark an end to the recession that took hold in late 2011.
That won't change the U.S. position as the main engine of economic growth in the world, at least until next year, with Chinese growth still slowing and India wracked by a currency in free-fall.
But even the smallest sign of a recovery in Europe augurs well for the rest of the year.
"Add it all up, and it's a more positive picture for the global economy late this year and next," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said.
"It feels like the global economy is stabilizing, and by year's end, certainly as we move into next year, growth will be accelerating, led by the U.S."
More
So you think Europe's debt crisis is finally over? Time to think again
One of the factors underpinning renewed confidence in the UK economy is the belief that the crisis in Europe is now essentially over.
----Among eurozone policymakers, the relief is palpable. Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, has waved his magic wand and apparently succeeded in calming the economic maelstrom. This is small thanks to the German core, which fought his actions tooth and nail but now seems more than happy to take credit. In any case, with the fear of financial Armageddon removed, European economies can begin the long march back to health. For Britain too, a key uncertainty for the banking and business sectors has been answered.
Or has
it? For though it is true that some form of equilibrium seems slowly to be
re-establishing itself in the European economy, it is at such a deeply impaired
level that it can scarcely be regarded as cause for celebration. Unemployment,
already at intolerable levels in some eurozone countries, is still rising and
money growth remains exceptionally depressed (see charts).
Nor is
there any end in sight to credit destruction, with deeply negative implications
for SMEs and future jobs creation. According to a new report by Royal Bank of
Scotland, Europe's banks need to shed a further €3.2 trillion (£2.7 trillion)
of assets (roughly equal to annual German GDP) to comply with new international
capital standards.
IMF
research cited last week by the European Central Bank puts the eurozone's
"structural unemployment" rate – that is the unemployment that won't
go away even after the economy returns to normal – at a staggering 10.1pc, up
from 7.4pc before the crisis. If correct, it means that any European recovery
will be a largely jobless one.
----Worse, barely a start has been made on
the political, institutional and structural reform necessary to bring about a
sustainable monetary union. The best that can be said for the eurozone crisis
is that it is merely dormant. At any moment, it could re-erupt.
More
Greece stuck in recession, bailout targets at risk
ATHENS |(Reuters) - Greece's recession eased slightly in the second quarter but not nearly enough to boost tax revenues to levels the government needs to meet its bailout targets, figures showed on Monday.
The data follows a magazine report saying Germany's central bank saw risks to the rescue package aimed at keeping Greece afloat and expects the euro member to need more aid in 2014 after it scraped through the last aid review.
As Europe's largest economy Germany has funded a chunk of the bailout but there has been resistance from German voters who are also facing tight budgets. The subject of Greek aid has played into the campaign for elections next month.
The Greek
data showed the economy shrank at an annual pace of 4.6 percent in the second
quarter, according to the country's statistics agency ELSTAT.
The
economy has slumped 23 percent in real terms since 2008, hurting tax revenues
and making it hard to meet targets agreed with international lenders who backed
the 2010 bailout.
The
figure was slightly better than economists' average forecast for a 5 percent
contraction, but that will be cold comfort for Greeks, who are facing a sixth
consecutive year of recession in 2013, as austerity measures have crippled
private consumption, the main engine of its economy.
The
slump, one of the biggest peace-time recessions recorded in history, is
undermining the ability of firms and households to pay taxes, separate budget
figures showed on Monday.
More
Greece in Need: New Bailout Expected after German Election
Germany's central bank
expects Greece to get a new bailout after the German election in September. In
a report seen by SPIEGEL, it says the last aid payment was driven by 'political
pressures' and calls Greece's progress on reforms 'hardly satisfactory.'
The
German central bank, the Bundesbank, predicts that Greece will get a new rescue
package shortly after the German general election on September 22. According to
an internal report by the Bundesbank obtained by SPIEGEL, Europe will
"most likely agree to a new credit program with Greece" by early 2014
at the latest.
In the
report, compiled for the German Finance Ministry and the International Monetary
Fund (IMF), the Bundesbank is critical of the latest loan tranche payout and of
the analysis conducted prior to the payment by the troika consisting of the
European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF.
The
Bundesbank said the tranche was likely to have been paid as a result of
"political pressures." The bank denies this is a reference to the German
government, which has been at pains to stifle public debate during the election
campaign about a possible Greek debt cut.
Chancellor
Angela Merkel's government has been stressing Greece's progress in imposing
reforms in return for international financial aid.
But in
its report, the Bundesbank sounds very cool about this progress. It says the
risks entailed in the rescue program remain "exceptionally high." The
performance of the Greek government, it adds, is "hardly
satisfactory," and there are "major doubts" about Greece's
ability to implement essential reforms.
In July,
Greece's international lenders approved the payment of €5.7 billion ($7.6
billion), the latest tranche of its bailout money. In total, Greece has so far
received more than €200 billion in financial assistance.
More
“The
rule is, jam tomorrow and jam yesterday-but never jam today
It must come sometime to jam today, Greece objected
No it can't said Barrosso It's jam every other day. Today isn't any other day, you know”
It must come sometime to jam today, Greece objected
No it can't said Barrosso It's jam every other day. Today isn't any other day, you know”
With
apologies to Lewis Carroll and Alice.
At the Comex silver depositories Monday final figures were: Registered 40.50 Moz,
Eligible 123.99 Moz, Total 164.49 Moz.
Crooks and
Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Today, more on our lawless age. When Wall Street
calls hang up.
“I
can't go back to yesterday because I was a different person then.”
Angela
Merkel, with apologies to Lewis Carroll.
Trading volume dries up around UMich report following disclosure of early release
August 12, 2013, 11:40 AM
Typically
no more than 400 shares trade these days in the big S&P 500 Exchange Traded
Fund Trust SPY in the first 10 milliseconds of the 2
seconds before the University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters consumer survey
report is released.
That stands in stark contrast to the roughly 200,000 shares in the ETF that typically traded during that 10 millisecond window at the beginning of those 2 seconds in recent years.
Why the dramatic reduction in trading? Eric Hunsader, at Nanex, a market research firm which provided the data, notes that Thomson Reuters recently suspended offering early access for a hefty fee to the University of Michigan’s survey results, responding to an investigation by New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman launched last month.
Prior to the suspension, the news and data firm charged large fees, over $5,000 a month, to grant high-speed-traders access to the data at 9:54:58 a.m. Eastern time.
But Hunsader also pointed out that trading after 9:55 a.m. dried up after press reports revealed the advantage in June. Other investors felt they were getting taken advantage of and stopped trading upon receiving the data at 9:55 a.m. That had the effect of driving the high-frequency traders to stop trading at 9:54:58 because there was no one to front run, he said. The next University of Michigan consumer sentiment report comes out Friday.
“It’s not getting the news early, it’s secretly getting the news early.” Hunsader said.
“This
piece of rudeness was more than John Bull could bear: he got up in great disgust,
and walked off; Barroso fell asleep instantly, and neither of the others took
the least notice of his going, though he looked back once or twice, half hoping
that they would call after him: the last time he saw them, they were trying to
put the Barroso into the teapot.
With apologies to Lewis Carroll and
Alice.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished July:
DJIA: +164 Up. NASDAQ: +167 Up. SP500: +195 Up. The
Fed’s final bubble still inflates.
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