Baltic Dry Index. 1058 -07
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for
so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is
part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not
have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.
J. K. Galbraith
Run do not walk to the bond market exit. It’s
over! No, not the great disconnect
between global stock markets and the underlying economic reality, although the
case could be made that reality is setting back in in Asian stock markets. No
it’s not over either for the dying Eurozone, where if it wasn’t for Germany, a
French led catastrophe would be unfolding. According to the latest figures
released yesterday the American consumer is back and ready to party like it’s
2002-2005 again. Even the Eurozone, ex France and Club Med is going to end its
Great Recession this quarter. Forget old dinosaurs like me who’ve been around trading
markets since mid-1968, and who doesn’t think sentiment indicators indicate
anything more that the delusion of crowds, our spin meisters of idiot business
TV are out busy marshalling the Muppets for the next paper bull market.
Bernocchio has pulled off the “Davos Spring.”
Run do not walk to the physical gold and silver
markets. If I’m wrong and the Davos Spring is right, Bernocchio and the sorcerer’s
apprentice in London Mark Carney, can’t now drop the QE drugs, without blowing
up their dangerously constructed Davos Spring. My guess is that QE forever
really is forever. We are about to move
on from deflation into the beginnings of the Great Inflation.
"Gold would have value if for no other reason than that it enables a citizen to fashion his financial escape from the state."
William F. Rickenbacker
Americans With Best Credit in Decades Drive U.S. Economy
By Shobhana Chandra & Steve Matthews - Aug 6, 2013 12:55 AM GMT
Americans have made progress putting their finances in order and are ready
to borrow again -- giving the world’s largest economy another driver of
spending and growth. Household net worth soared to a record high in the first quarter, Federal Reserve data show, and the financial-obligations ratio relating consumer debt to income matched the lowest in 33 years. Consumer loans are rising, and the American Bankers Association reports the share of delinquencies on bank cards is the smallest since 1990.
“Household finances are in the best shape in decades,” said Joseph Carson, director of global economic research at AllianceBernstein LP in New York, with $435 billion in assets under management. “We now have a creditworthy borrower. It’s a powerful ingredient” for the U.S. expansion and “definitely a step up from where we have been.”
Credit is thawing gradually for residential mortgages, one reason new-home purchases in June reached the highest since 2008. Lenders also are easing standards for auto loans to expand the pool of buyers and drum up more business. That has put car sales on track for the best pace since 2007, helping companies including General Motors Co. (GM), Ford Motor Co. (F) and parts maker Lear Corp. (LEA) to report better-than-estimated earnings.
More
Eurozone recession will end this quarter as businesses return to growth
The eurozone’s recession could end in the third quarter, according to analysts, after official data showed that the region’s businesses had returned to growth for the first time in 18 months.
The
Markit eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - a combination of
the services and manufacturing sectors - recorded growth of 50.5 in July, up
from an initial estimate of 50.4 and above the 50 mark which signals the
difference between contraction and growth.
For
Europe, the strong figures offer a glimmer of hope that the six consecutive
quarters of economic contraction may be coming to an end. The sentiment survey
of thousands of purchasing managers is widely seen as a reliable gauge of
economic expansion.
“The
final output index reading of 50.5 confirms a welcome return to growth for the
eurozone economy at the start of the third quarter, raising hopes that the
region can finally claw its way out of its longest-running recession,” said Rob
Dobson, senior economist at Markit.
----The good came on a day that saw a glut of worldwide data on the services sector. In the US, the Institute for Supply Management’s July non-manufacturing index - comparable to services PMI readings - came in at 56, above expectations of 53 and ahead of the previous month’s 52.2. Business activity, which includes current sales, rose to 60.4, the highest since December, driven in part by faster home construction. A gauge of new orders increased to five-month high of 57.7.
Meanwhile,
China’s services sector recorded 51.3 in July, unchanged from June and just
above a 20-month low of 51.1 hit in April.
More
Asian Stocks Drop on Concern Fed Will Reduce Stimulus
By Adam Haigh - Aug 6, 2013 4:04 AM GMT
Asian
stocks fell for a second day as stronger growth in U.S.
service industries fueled speculation the Federal
Reserve will soon be able to reduce economic stimulus.
----“The
ramp-up in the U.S. economy is not only gaining momentum, but is
accelerating,” Evan Lucas, a Melbourne-based market strategist at IG Markets
Ltd., a provider of trading services for equities, currencies and commodities,
said by e-mail. “This is increasing the hawkish view of the Fed. This is why
the September taper talk will continue. The blueprint for monetary stimulus
tapering will be laid out in September with the first wind-back in October.”
More
China’s Stocks Fall Most in Week as Property, Coal Shares Slump
By Weiyi Lim - Aug 6, 2013 5:02 AM GMT
China’s
stocks fell for the first time in six days after the nation’s
economic planning agency signaled the government would maintain real-estate
curbs and coal companies slumped on concern about the earnings outlook.
----National Development and Reform Commission Chairman Xu Shaoshi said yesterday macro-control policies for real estate will continue. Investors are getting mixed signals on the property market after a Politburo report last week didn’t mention any curbs, said Zeng Xianzhao, an analyst at Everbright Securities Co. in Chongqing.
“Last week, we thought authorities had relaxed their stance on property,” Zeng said by phone. “Today we read the NDRC chairman said policies for real estate will continue. The uncertainty over property policies is dragging the industry lower which in turn is pulling the main index down. There’s no volume after the rally yesterday and confidence is low.”
More
We end for today with poor France. What did the
great nation of France ever do to deserve twin calamities like this?
“How
can you govern a country which has 246 varieties of cheese?”
Charles
de Gaulle.
IMF sees no end to French jobless crisis this decade
France’s economic reforms do not go deep enough to halt long-term decline and may not cut unemployment from double-digit levels by the end of this decade, the International Monetary Fund has warned.
The IMF
called on president Francois Hollande to slow the pace of fiscal tightening
next year to avoid an economic relapse, pouring cold water on claims that a
fresh cycle of healthy growth is now under way.
“Given
the still hesitant recovery, the government should ease the pace of
adjustment,” it said in its annual healthcheck. It warned of “significant”
contagion for surrounding states if French growth stalls again.
A chorus
of French economists has accused Mr Hollande of wishful thinking in proclaiming
the crisis to be over. Partick Artus from Natixis said recent signs of
stabilisation are largely due to restocking and should be treated with great
caution. “This is not recovery,” he said.
The
Left-leaning Observatoire Economique said the EMU policy regime remains
contractionary and risks pushing France’s economy into outright deflation next
year
More
“The
cemeteries of the world are full of indispensable men.”
Charles
de Gaulle.
Nicolas Sarkozy the most influential political figure in France, poll finds
Nicolas Sarkozy comeback ambitions received a major boost as he was declared the most popular influential political figure in France by a key poll.
The Right-wing former president came 20th in Sunday newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche's bi-annual Top 50 poll, some 24 places ahead of François Hollande, the Socialist who roundly beat him last year but now faces record low popularity ratings.
The two men were the only politicians present in the list, dominated by music, film, TV and sports celebrities.
The poll came a day after Mr Sarkozy reportedly received a rock star's welcome when he turned up to a pop concert in St-Tropez with his wife Carla Bruni-Sarkozy, during which half the audience gave him a standing ovation.
The 58-year-old's ranking is the highest he has ever achieved, including in a poll taken in the "honeymoon period" shortly after his election for a five-year term in 2007.
It will further fire up his supporters, who are increasingly vocal in calling for his return to spare France five more years of Socialist rule in 2017.
More
Just to set the record straight, I doubt that it’s
really over and that the US economy or any other economy has reached escape
velocity. I think that we have merely reached another false dawn in our new
lawless bankster socialism age. My guess is that our herd of Muppets is mistaking the seasonal lift from
summer with true recovery. But if I’m wrong, what comes next is Mises “crack up
boom.” Sometime before the end of 2015
the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money comes to its end in a massive global
inflation, followed by fiat money revulsion.
“When
I am right, I get angry. Churchill gets angry when he is wrong. We are angry at
each other much of the time.”
Charles
de Gaulle.
At the Comex silver depositories Monday final figures were: Registered 41.85 Moz,
Eligible 122.23 Moz, Total 164.08 Moz.
Crooks and
Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
No crooks today, just some global cooling
observations from Old Farmer Graeme’s Almanac.
For whatever it’s worth, here in my part of southern
England, our summer avian migrants from Africa, the Swifts and Housemartins, were
missing on Sunday August fourth, from the pastures and horse farm areas where I
regularly walk Rosie my Border Collie. In my region they arrived late this year,
in May rather than April, and have left at the start of August rather than the
end of August or early September. What do they know that we don’t. Of course it
might just be a lack of enough flying insects on which they feed, due in part
to our long cold winter and late spring. Still having watched them coming and
going for years, this is by far the earliest that they have left from this part
of the gentle south of England.
This morning, August 6th, walking Rosie at 6 am in the park was
distinctly autumnal. The temperature, according to my smartphone was a pleasant
but cool 46F. Slightly below the average of 52F.
Whether
the weather be fine,
Or whether the weather be not,
Whether the weather be cold,
Or whether the weather be hot,
We'll weather the weather
Whatever the weather,
Whether we like it or not!
Or whether the weather be not,
Whether the weather be cold,
Or whether the weather be hot,
We'll weather the weather
Whatever the weather,
Whether we like it or not!
Anon.
Unprecedented July Cold – Arctic Sees Shortest Summer On Record
By Robert
On August 2, 2013
“Normally the high Arctic has about 90 days above freezing. This year there was less than half that,” says Steven Goddard website.
Graph courtesy of COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
Thanks to F. Guimaraes for this link
“Normally the high Arctic has about 90 days above freezing. This year there was less than half that,” says Steven Goddard website.
Graph courtesy of COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
Thanks to F. Guimaraes for this link
“The Arctic ice extent is showing a remarkable recovery from
the great oscillations of 2012,” says Guimaraes. “Compare with the previous
years listed there, you’ll see that 2004 is the year that is closest to 2013 in
terms of average temps during the summer.”
(You can compare by looking at the Archives (Arkiv) on the left side of the page.)
(You can compare by looking at the Archives (Arkiv) on the left side of the page.)
more
http://iceagenow.info/2013/08/unprecedented-july-cold-arctic-sees-shortest-summer-record/
http://iceagenow.info/2013/08/unprecedented-july-cold-arctic-sees-shortest-summer-record/
Farmers’ Almanac Daily
Update
for August 6th, 2013
Today is a Best Day to ...
Cut
Firewood, Mow
to Increase Growth, Dig
Holes, Paint,
Get
Married, Buy
a Home, Entertain
Friends, Host
a Party, Travel
for Pleasure
“The
more I get to know men, the more I love dogs.”
Charles
de Gaulle.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished July:
DJIA: +164 Up. NASDAQ: +167 Up. SP500: +195 Up. The
Fed’s final bubble still inflates.
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