Baltic Dry Index. 1158 +02
LIR Gold Target by 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
“The
boom can last only as long as the credit expansion progresses at an
ever-accelerated pace. The boom comes to an end as soon as additional
quantities of fiduciary media are no longer thrown upon the loan market.”
Ludwig von Mises.
Today, loose lips in Washington sink countries.
Ever since Benny first leaked to the Wall Street Journal of his master plan to
start ending quantitative easing and with it the Fed’s zero interest rate
policy, it’s been rising mayhem in the emerging markets, with a continuing rout
taking place in India. Already there have been riots in Brazil and Turkey. If
the Great Deceiver Bernocchio actually starts tapering, I suspect that all hell
lets loose in the rest of the world. The Great Nixonian Error of fiat money is
coming to its end, and with it 200+ years of Anglo-American reserve currency hegemony.
If Benny and the boys crash the rest of the world by tapering, most of the
other G-20 will want a pound of flesh in retribution. Stay long physical
precious metals. As the 2013 sleepy summer silly season draws to an end, what
comes next will be far from sleepy. The
end is nigh.
Emerging market rout threatens wider global economy
The $9 trillion (£5.8 trillion) accumulation of foreign bonds by the rising powers of Asia, Latin America and the emerging world risks going into reverse as one country after another is forced to liquidate holdings to shore up its currency, threatening to inflict a credit shock on the global economy.
India’s
rupee and Turkey’s lira both crashed to record lows on Thursday following the
US Federal Reserve releasing minutes which signalled a wind-down of
quantitative easing as soon as next month.
Dilma
Rousseff, Brazil’s president, held an emergency meeting on Thursday with her
top economic officials to halt the real’s slide after it hit a five-year low
against the dollar. The central bank chief, Alexandre Tombini, cancelled his
trip to the Fed’s Jackson Hole conclave in order “to monitor market activity”
amid reports Brazil is preparing direct intervention to stem capital flight.
The
country has so far relied on futures contracts to defend the real – disguising
the erosion of Brazil’s $374bn reserves – but this has failed to deter
speculators. “They are moving currency intervention off balance sheet, but the
net position is deteriorating all the time,” said Danske Bank’s Lars
Christensen.
A string
of countries have been burning foreign reserves to defend exchange rates, with
holdings down 8pc in Ecuador, 6pc in Kazakhstan and Kuwait, and 5.5pc in
Indonesia in July alone. Turkey’s reserves have dropped 15pc this year
It was
Fed tightening and a rising dollar that set off Latin America’s crisis in the
early 1980s and East Asia’s crisis in the mid-1990s. Both episodes were
contained, though not easily.
Emerging
markets have stronger shock absorbers today and largely borrow in their own
currencies, making them less vulnerable to a dollar squeeze. However, they now
make up half the world economy and are big enough to set off a crisis in the
West.
Fears of
Fed tightening have pushed borrowing costs worldwide to levels that could
threaten global recovery. Yields on 10-year bonds jumped 47 basis points to
12.29pc in Brazil on Thursday, 33 points to 9.72pc in Turkey, and 12 points to
8.4pc in South Africa.
More
The financial crisis that refuses to go away
Emerging markets such as Brazil, India and Turkey have an outbreak of the jitters, and it’s hard to see a happy outcome
Oh what a
tangled web central bankers weave, when first they practice to deceive. As was
always predictable, exiting the “quantitative easing” the US Federal Reserve,
the Bank of England and others launched in the wake of the credit crunch to
support failing banking systems and collapsing demand is proving an
exceptionally tricky business. It threatens almost as many problems for the
world economy as the original money-printing was trying to solve. There is no
mess quite so bad, it might be said, that central bank intervention doesn’t
make worse.
The
latest example of this old truism is the renewed turmoil in emerging economy
currency, debt and equity markets. This has become so intense over the past
week that it invites parallels with the emerging markets crisis of the late
Nineties, an event that arguably lit the fuse on the all-encompassing Western
banking crisis that occurred a decade later. Thus does the policy response to
one bubble-induced crisis merely re-infect and lead inexorably to the next one.
This
week’s outbreak of instability is also symptomatic of the way the wider crisis
in the world economy refuses to go away. There is always some wretched fly in
the ointment. Just as the eurozone debt storm seems to be abating, up pops the
developing world to cast another pall over reviving business confidence. With
the Fed sticking to its guns over ending QE, many emerging markets yesterday went
into meltdown. Yet the threatened withdrawal of QE is only really the trigger.
The present outbreak of jitters finds its origins as far back as the turn of
the century when, in response to a series of economic shocks – first the
emerging markets crisis, then the deflating dotcom bubble, and finally the war
on terror – the US and others began the present phase of highly accommodative
monetary policy.
More.
Thai Baht Set for Worst Week Since 2007 on Outflows; Bonds Drop
By Yumi Teso - Aug 23, 2013 5:28 AM GMT
Thailand’s baht was set for its worst week since 2007 on speculation
outflows from emerging markets will intensify as the Federal
Reserve prepares to cut monetary stimulus. Government
bonds dropped. The currency touched a three-year low of 32.17 yesterday as official data showed global funds sold $917 million more of Thai bonds than they bought this month through yesterday, and pulled a net $903 million from equities. Thailand’s National Economic and Social Development Board cut its 2013 growth forecast on Aug. 19 as the nation entered recession for the first time since 2009
More
Philippine Peso Falls to 19-Month Low on Taper Risk; Bonds Drop
By Clarissa Batino & Max Estayo - Aug 23, 2013 5:19 AM GMT
The Philippine peso fell to a 19-month low and bonds dropped after U.S.
economic data bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to start tapering
stimulus that has inflated asset prices in emerging
markets. The index of U.S. leading indicators climbed in July by the most in three months, according to a report released yesterday, signaling improvement in housing and labor markets will help foster faster economic growth through year-end. Asian currencies fell this week as minutes of the Fed’s July meeting showed officials were “broadly comfortable” with reducing bond buying this year if the economy improves.
More
Rupiah Set for Worst Week Since 2008 on Current-Account Deficit
By Yudith Ho - Aug 23, 2013 4:24 AM GMT
Indonesia’s rupiah
headed for its worst week since 2008 and government
bonds dropped after the country posted a record current-account deficit
amid speculation the Federal Reserve will soon start tapering stimulus. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will unveil policies today to address the situation after global funds pulled $516 million from local stocks this week through yesterday and the Jakarta Composite index of shares fell more than 7 percent. Fed officials said they were “comfortable” with starting to reduce bond buying later this year, according to minutes of their July meeting released this week.
More
Brazil Steps Up Currency Intervention to $60 Billion
By Matthew Malinowski & Arnaldo Galvao - Aug 23, 2013 5:12 AM GMT
Brazil stepped up efforts
to arrest the world’s worst currency decline, announcing a $60 billion
intervention program involving currency swaps and loans. Starting today, the central bank will auction $1 billion of dollar loans every Friday and offer the equivalent of $500 million worth of foreign-exchange swaps a day on Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays, according to a statement late yesterday. The program will run through Dec. 31.
Investors are exiting emerging markets as the Federal Reserve prepares to reduce the amount of money it pumps into the world economy. The real is losing the most as investors question President Dilma Rousseff’s ability to attract investment and cut government spending that has kept inflation above the mid-point of policy makers’ target for 35 months.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-22/brazil-offers-60-bln-in-auctions-to-stem-real-s-plunge.html
Meanwhile in dying continental Europe, it was more
of the same old story. If it wasn’t for Germania, sick Europe would already
have left its death bed. But the good news was partly undone by the news from
old socialist led France. Old socialism in 2013 is producing the result
socialism always achieves, the poor get poorer while the rich hide away their
money.
I suspect that this is as good as it gets for
continental Europe. The economic bounce from summer’s better weather and the
boost to consumer confidence, is likely to quickly subside as autumn and winter
return, and the Grinch in America starts tapering the Fed’s QE program and
ending the heroin of ZIRP for everyone. Even though Bernocchio suggests that
the Fed will only end Zirp with baby steps, the moment the Fed tries there will
be a mass rush for the door marked exit in bonds.
German data buoys eurozone as France falters
Strong German data cemented the country’s status as the eurozone’s powerhouse on Thursday, while France faltered, leaving a “big question mark” over the country’s ability to return to sustained growth.
Business
activity in Germany’s private sector picked up in August, according to Markit,
with manufacturing output climbing at the fastest rate since June 2011, and
activity in the services sector jumping by the most in six months.
The
robust German data helped broader eurozone business activity increase at the
fastest rate in two years. Markit’s eurozone PMI composite index rose to 51.7
in August, from 50.5 in July, the highest level since June 2011 and well above
the 50 level that divides growth from contraction.
However,
the downturn in France, Europe’s second largest economy, deepened in August.
Private sector employment fell further, Markit said, extending the current
period of contraction to 18 months.
“A big
question mark still hangs over France’ ability to return to sustained growth,”
said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.
Spain and
Italy saw an improvement in growth as exports to neighbouring nations picked
up. “The economic picture from the surveys is therefore coming into line with
policymakers’ expectations of a modest yet still fragile return to growth,”
said Mr Williamson
More
Italian Job Sneaks Factory to Poland Under Cover of Darkness
By Lorenzo Totaro - Aug 23, 2013 12:01 AM GMT
Earlier this month, Fabrizio Pedroni wished his employees a happy summer
holiday and told them to return to work in three weeks. That night, he began
dismantling his electric component factory in northern Italy and packing
its machinery off to Poland. “Had I told them earlier about any plans to shift the production abroad, they would have occupied my factory and seized all my stuff,” Pedroni said in an Aug. 21 telephone interview from Poland. “The plain truth is that I wanted my business to survive and there weren’t the right conditions for me to operate in Italy any longer.”
The news that Firem Srl, based in Formigine near Modena, was shifting to Eastern Europe reached the 40 employees too late. On Aug. 13, 11 days after Pedroni activated his plan, a group of employees suspicious of the movements around the plant rushed to its gates just in time to stop the last of 20 lorries packed with machinery. Firem’s move became a national controversy and the fate of its workers is still unclear.
The loss of the factory highlights the struggle Italy faces to revive manufacturing and its economy, which remained in recession in the second quarter even as the broader euro area returned to growth
----Pedroni, 49, now lives in fear for his life after receiving multiple threats to himself and his family. He says he won’t change his mind about the choice he made for the company first opened by his grandfather after World War II. He’s not alone, with Italian companies from car firm Fiat SpA (FI) to Indesit Co. SpA (IND), the maker of ovens and fridges, moving production lines abroad to cut costs.
More
We end for the week with rising trouble in South
Africa. Our world simply isn’t ready for rising interest rates. After years on the heroin of zero interest rate policies and
central bank money from nothing, no one is prepared to give up voodoo policies.
South Africa Auto Strike May Spread to Gold, Construction
By Paul Burkhardt & Kamlesh Bhuckory - Aug 23, 2013 6:13 AM GMT
Strikes that have shut plants owned by Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) and General Motors Co. (GM) in South Africa
may spread to gold mines and construction companies, threatening more than 10
percent of the economy’s output. Two labor unions representing gold mining workers said yesterday their members may vote to strike after wage talks with producers such as AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (ANG) stalled. A walkout by about 90,000 construction workers from Aug. 26 is set to affect building at Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd.’s two power plants.
South Africa has been wracked by labor turmoil since last year, disrupting production at gold and platinum mines and undermining growth in Africa’s biggest economy.
Workers at carmakers including Toyota, Bayerische Motoren Werke AG and Volkswagen AG (VOW) are on strike for a fifth day to demand a 14 percent increase in wages, more than double the 6.3 percent inflation rate. The stoppages are costing the industry 700 million rand ($68 million) a day in lost output, according to an industry group.
Unions representing gold miners rejected the latest offer from employers to raise the pay of some categories of workers’ wages by 6 percent. The National Union of Mineworkers, which represents 64 percent of workers in the industry, is seeking a 60 percent increase for entry-level jobs. Strikes could cost 349 million rand a day in lost output, according to the Chamber of Mines.
More
There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.
Ludwig von Mises.
At the Comex silver depositories Thursday final figures were: Registered 39.24
Moz, Eligible 124.90 Moz, Total 164.14 Moz.
Crooks and
Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
No crooks today, they’re all out in Wyoming at
Jackson Hole, excepting Bernocchio who’s gone missing.
“Why,
sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”
Bernocchio, with apologies to Lewis
Carroll and Alice.
“Who
in the world am I? Ah, that's the great puzzle.”
Bernocchio, with apologies to Lewis
Carroll and Alice.
“I
don't like the looks of it,' said Bernocchio: 'however, it may kiss my A**e, if
it likes.'
'I'd rather not,' the Dim Un remarked.”
'I'd rather not,' the Dim Un remarked.”
Bernocchio, with apologies to Lewis
Carroll and Alice.
“Only
the insane equate pain with success."
"The uninformed must improve their deficit, or die."
"The uninformed must improve their deficit, or die."
Bernocchio, with apologies to Lewis
Carroll and Alice.
Another weekend,
and anther Bank Holiday Monday in the UK except Scotland too. What the poor
Scots did wrong no one knows, but they’ve got their own set of corrupt
politicians to complain too. The Monday after next, it’s America and Canada’s
turn to stop working for the banksters for a day. And with that 2013s silly
season comes to an end. “Man bites dog” stories cease, and reality returns to
our Fed’s final bubble world. Will the Fed really dare to start tapering their
voodoo QE program? I doubt that they dare, but if I’m wrong, our world of Easy
Street forever will come to an abrupt end. Yet if they don’t, add QE forever to
the six impossible things to believe in before breakfast. Have a great weekend
everyone.
“The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press
(or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S.
dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost…We conclude that under a
paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending
and hence positive inflation.”
Dr.
Ben Bernanke
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished July:
DJIA: +164 Up. NASDAQ: +167 Up. SP500: +195 Up. The
Fed’s final bubble still inflates but for how much longer?
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