Are/Have Stocks And Commodities Become/ing Unstable?

Baltic Dry Index. 2094 +23      Brent Crude 62.31

Spot Gold 4149            US 2 Year Yield 3.45 -0.01

US Federal Debt. 37.926 trillion

US GDP 31.524 trillion.

When the final result is expected to be a compromise, it is often prudent to start from an extreme position.

John Maynard Keynes

Have our stock casinos and commodity markets become unstable? What will it mean for the global economy if they have become unstable?

In whipsaw markets few make money while many make losses. But where are those losses now piling up?

Asia-Pacific markets mostly fall as investors assess Japan trade data; SoftBank drops over 5%

Published Tue, Oct 21 2025 7:47 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell Wednesday as investors assessed trade data from Japan and the country’s new leadership.

Japanese exports in September snapped four months of declines, climbing 4.2% year on year, as shipments to Asia saw robust growth, partially offsetting the drop in exports to the U.S.

Exports, however, missed analysts’ expectations of a 4.6% rise, according to median estimates in a Reuters poll of economists.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her new cabinet were sworn in on Tuesday, with her former rival in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership race, Shinjiro Koizumi, named defense minister and Satsuki Katayama becoming Japan’s first female finance minister.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.48%, leading losses in Asia, while the Topix index gained 0.33%.
Shares of SoftBank plunged over 10% before paring losses to about 5%. Shares had gained 8.5% on Monday.

On Tuesday, the Nikkei briefly set a new intraday record of 49,945.95, before retreating after Takaichi won the parliamentary vote to become Prime Minister.

South Korea’s markets bucked the wider fall in the region, with the Kospi index rising 0.3%, and the small-cap Kosdaq up 0.1%.

Shares of LG Chem soared as much as 10% after Palliser Capital urged the chemicals company to revamp its board and buy back shares, according to a Reuters report.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.87%, pulling back from earlier gains on Tuesday after rare earth stocks briefly rallied on news of a U.S.-Australia critical minerals agreement.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped 0.83%. Shares of Labubu doll maker Pop Mart surged about 6% on the index after posting strong third-quarter results.

The CSI 300 on mainland China opened 0.69% lower.

Indian markets are closed for a holiday.

Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new closing record, boosted by strong earnings reports from companies such as Coca-Cola and 3M, while the S&P 500 was relatively unchanged.

The 30-stock index gained 0.47% to close at 46,924.74, and briefly topped 47,000 during the session.

The broad market S&P 500 closed just above the flatline at 6,735.35, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lagged, falling 0.16% to 22,953.67.

Asia-Pacific stocks live updates: Japan trade data, new government

Gold is getting knocked on Tuesday – it’s still the hottest trade of the year

Published Tue, Oct 21 20251:10 PM EDT

While gold was taking a hit on Tuesday, the metals trade has outshined artificial intelligence on Wall Street this year, even the latter has propelled the broader stock market to record levels.

Gold crossed the $4,000-per-ounce threshold earlier in October, and just this week, it hit a record above $4,300. It’s currently up more than 50% this year. Not only that, silver is trading near record levels and has soared more than 60%. That’s despite easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China leading to a slight pullback in both metals – President Donald Trump said Monday he expects to reach a “really fair and really great” deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month.

Precious metals have gained in 2025 thanks to concerns around global trade, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a drop in the U.S. dollar. But the size of those returns is unusual for gold and silver, especially when the stock market is doing well. The Nasdaq-100 is up more than 19% this year, while the the S&P 500 has climbed more than 14%, with both hitting records this year as a result of the AI investing boom. The commodity has even beaten out AI giant Nvidia’s jump of more than 34%.

“The market is somewhat changing its view on gold as an asset class right now,” David Wagner, head of equity at Aptus Capital Advisors, said in an interview with CNBC. “It’s no longer just being utilized as kind of a simplistic way to hedge your currency or hedge your portfolio.”

Instead, investors are seeing it as a scarce asset as the “currency debasement” trade gains momentum on Wall Street. This trade refers to investors hedging against government borrowing and money printing, lessening the U.S. dollar’s value by moving into gold and other assets.

“People want to own risk assets,” Wagner said. “People want to own hard assets, given where we stand in our current debt and the debasement of currency that does occur on an annualized basis from inflation.”

“The gold mentality has somewhat changed over the last few years,” he added.

The run-up

While gold has outpaced the broader market since the tech bubble peak in 2000, its move really became apparent in 2022, when the U.S. alongside others such as the European Union froze Russia’s central bank reserves in the wake of that country’s invasion of Ukraine.

“That event woke up the rest of the world to say, ‘Hey, let me double check how much of U.S. dollar reserves I have, and maybe this is a good catalyst to reduce that exposure,’” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners.

The move set off significant amounts of central bank gold buying in not only 2022 but also 2023 and 2024. That pace has since only quickened this year following Trump’s decision to impose “reciprocal” tariffs on a number of countries months ago.

More

Gold is getting knocked on Tuesday – it’s still the hottest trade of the year

In other news.

China says U.S. and Australia ‘should play a proactive role’ to bolster rare earths supply chains

Published Tue, Oct 21 2025 5:01 AM EDT Updated Tue, Oct 21 2025 8:37 AM EDT

China on Tuesday responded to the U.S.-Australia critical minerals deal by saying resource-rich rare earth countries should take “a proactive role” in stabilizing their critical minerals supply chains.

A spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs was asked about the U.S. and Australia critical minerals deal which has been framed as an effort to counter Beijing’s dominance.

“The formation of global production and supply chains is the result of market and corporate choices,” Guo Jiakun said, according to NBC.

“Resource-rich nations with critical minerals should play a proactive role in safeguarding the security and stability of the industrial and supply chains, and ensure normal economic and trade cooperation,” he added.

Rare earths are a category of minerals that are critical for a swath of products from cars to semiconductors.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Monday signed an agreement at the White House intended to boost the supplies of rare earths and other critical minerals.

The framework agreement, which was described as an $8.5 billion deal between the allies, comes shortly after China imposed more stringent export controls on rare earths.

China’s Commerce Ministry earlier this month announced expanded curbs on the export of rare earths and related technologies, seeking to prevent the “misuse” of minerals in the military and other sensitive sectors.

Western automotive industry groups have been among those to raise the alarm over the new export controls, saying the measures could pave the way to a period of supply chain chaos.

Demand for rare earths and critical minerals is expected to grow exponentially in the coming years as the clean energy transition picks up pace.

China is the undisputed leader of the critical minerals supply chain, accounting for roughly 60% of the world’s production of rare earth minerals and materials. U.S. officials have previously warned that this poses a strategic challenge amid the pivot to more sustainable energy sources.

More

Rare earths: China responds to U.S.-Australia critical minerals deal

China-U.S. 

Cover Story: Trade War Deepens as U.S. and China Open New Fronts at Sea and in Silicon

21 October 2025

In the weeks leading up to the APEC summit in South Korea, a new chapter has opened up in U.S.–China rivalry — this time far from the negotiating tables but deep inside the ports, shipyards and customs offices that keep global trade moving.

What began in early autumn as a cautious thaw between Washington and Beijing — marked by cordial trade talks in Madrid and a phone call between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump — has quickly unraveled. Within weeks, both sides have cast aside diplomatic restraint, rolling out a barrage of targeted trade restrictions that signal a sharp return to confrontation.

• China-U.S. Shipping Rates Spike as Exporters Rush to Beat Potential Trump Tariffs
   
• U.S. Trade Tensions to Overshadow APEC Summit in South Korea
   
• Commentary: Trump’s Tariffs Are Remapping U.S. Imports From Asia

CX Daily: Trade War Deepens as U.S. and China Open New Fronts at Sea and in Silicon

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

UK government borrowing soars in September to highest in five years

Tuesday 21 October 2025 7:09 am  |  Updated:  Tuesday 21 October 2025 7:30 am

UK government borrowing soared to £20.2bn in September, official data has revealed, in another Blow for Rachel Reeves as she gears up for a painful tax-raising Budget next month.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said government borrowing over the month was the highest in the month seen for five years and an increase of £1.6bn compared to the previous month. 

Economist had forecast the government to borrow £20.5bn over the month. 

Over the first six months of the current financial year, government borrowing was the second-highest ever recorded at £99.8bn. The current budget deficit stood at £71.8bn.

It also said debt interest payments over last month was £9.7bn while debt as a share of GDP stood at 95.3 per cent a percentage point higher than levels a year ago. 

Fresh data adds to woes in public finances as Labour ministers struggle to restrict government borrowing to cover expenditure on services such as the NHS and security. 

It is also one of the last sets of ONS publications the Chancellor will see before the Budget on 26 November. 

Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot, said: “Without a shift in the fiscal rules once again, the UK economy is in somewhat of a straitjacket.

“Fiscal headroom is all but non-existent, and the growth that is required to create it is being hampered by a high tax burden and uncertainty of more revenue raising measures from the government to come.

“The economic winds are refusing to blow in the UK’s direction, but the recent fall in gilt yields have bought some breathing room. What the government does with that will be watched very closely at the despatch box next month.”

Chief secretary to the Treasury James Murray said: “This government will never play fast and loose with the public finances. We know that when you lose control of the public purse it’s working people who pay the price.

“That’s why we plan to bring down borrowing, and according to IMF data, are set to deliver the largest primary deficit reduction in both the G7 and G20 over the next five years.”

Shadow Chancellor accused the Reeves of making “the next generation…saddled with Labour’s debts”.

“If Rachel Reeves had a plan – or a backbone – she would stand up to her backbenchers, get spending under control and cut the deficit. Instead she is plotting to hike taxes yet again to pay for her failures,” Stride said.

Government borrowing data sets up for difficult Budget

Reeves is widely expected to face a fiscal hole valued at around £30bn if she wishes to keep to her fiscal rule stating that day-to-day spending should match receipts by 2030. 

City economists believe her headroom of some £9.9bn left at the Spring Statement has been washed out by higher borrowing costs than forecast and policy U-turns on welfare savings in the middle of a year. 

An expected productivity downgrade by the fiscal watchdog is also set to widen the shortfall. 

But in the run-up to the Budget, the Treasury is rushing to announce growth-inducing policies that can lessen the impact of expected Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) downgrades to forecasts. 

Policies announced include sweeping planning reforms and a move unveiled today to accelerate the process of reducing the extent of red tape for businesses. 

More

UK government borrowing soars in September to highest in five years

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Tesla dominates UK mega battery market

Group led by Elon Musk, criticised by energy secretary Ed Miliband, supplies units and trades power from them

20 October 2025

Tesla has quietly built a leading position in the UK’s mega battery market, deepening its role in Britain’s efforts to shift away from fossil fuels.

The group led by Elon Musk not only supplies large-scale batteries to plant developers but also trades the power generated by them. Tesla’s batteries perform the best in terms of revenue in an increasingly competitive market that has also lured the likes of Goldman Sachs, data from battery market specialists Modo Energy indicates. 

The data comes two weeks after Ed Miliband, the energy secretary who is leading Britain’s clean-energy transition, gave a speech in which he told Musk, to “get the hell out of our politics and our country”, after the tech billionaire criticised the UK via his social media site X. 

Tesla has long sold batteries to British homeowners as part of its electric car offering. But mega batteries are able to store power when there is a lot being generated by power stations around the country — and prices are low — and then discharge it across the grid when supplies are scarcer and prices higher. This ability to smooth out supply means so-called grid-scale batteries are a key part of countries’ efforts to move away from fossil fuels.

Tesla’s success is down to the sophisticated approach of the company’s Autobidder trading software as well as its batteries’ larger storage capacity and location, experts said.

“The [Autobidder] platform is constantly repricing bids and trying to outcompete the competition in a more dynamic, data-driven way than some of the more classic manual dispatch,” said Joe Bush, market analyst at Modo Energy.

More

Tesla dominates UK mega battery market

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

There is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world.

John Maynard Keynes

Stocks, To Infinity And Beyond. Are Trump’s Tariffs Legal?

Baltic Dry Index. 2071 +02      Brent Crude 60.85

Spot Gold 4357            US 2 Year Yield 3.46  unch.

US Federal Debt. 37.921 trillion

US GDP 31.521 trillion.

"The London Banker Henry Fauntleroy forged to keep his bank solvent. He was executed for it in 1824."

Charles P. Kindleberger, author Manias, Panics and Crashes.

Another day, week and month, more great stock casino disconnect from reality.

In the UK, in a sign of rising hardship among the consuming public, Pizza Hut Uk just went into administration.

Dinosaur Graeme thinks bad times lie directly ahead.

South Korea’s Kospi hits sixth straight record high on U.S. trade deal optimism

Published Mon, Oct 20 2025 7:53 PM EDT

South Korea’s Kospi index jumped more than 2% Tuesday to hit a sixth consecutive record high, building on a rally spurred by optimism around an impending trade deal with the U.S.

South Korean stocks have been on a roll since U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC in an exclusive interview Wednesday stateside that Washington was “about to finish up” trade negotiations with the Asian country.

“The devil’s in the details, but we are ironing out the details,” he added.

The Kospi index has risen about 61% year to date.

Auto stocks helped boost the index, with shares of Hyundai Motor climbing 6.45%, while Kia Corp added 4.28%. Heavyweight Samsung Electronics was also up 1.73%.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 rose 1.5% to a fresh record, after closing at an all-time high Monday. The Topix also added 0.73% to hit a record high.

Broader Asia-Pacific markets also opened higher, tracking Wall Street gains, led by a rally in Apple shares.

Investors await Japan’s parliamentary vote, which is likely to see Sanae Takaichi become the country’s next prime minister, after the right-wing opposition Japan Innovation Party said Monday it was ready to back her premiership.

Australia’s ASX/S&P 200 rose 0.50%. Shares of the country’s rare earth companies rose after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and U.S. President Donald Trump signed a critical minerals agreement Tuesday, aimed at countering China’s dominance.

Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths added 3.8%, Iluka Resources jumped nearly 6%, Pilbara Minerals rose 4.7%. VHM skyrocketed over 30%, while Northern Minerals soared nearly 15%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1.17% in early trading, while the Hang Seng Tech index was up 1.84%. Mainland’s CSI 300 was 0.3% higher.

Hong Kong-listed shares of CATL gained 4.73% after the battery manufacturer posted strong third-quarter earnings late Monday. The Tesla battery supplier’s net profit for the July-September period rose 41% to 18.5 billion yuan ($2.6 billion).

Indian markets are closed for a holiday.

U.S. equity futures were little changed in early Asian hours, ahead of a busy earnings week from big-name companies and inflation data.

Overnight, the three key benchmarks in the U.S. rose on a rally in Apple shares after Loop Capital upgraded it to buy from hold.

 The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 515.97 points, or 1.12%, higher at 46,706.58. The S&P 500 also climbed 1.07% to settle at 6,735.13, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.37% to settle at 22,990.54.

Asia markets live: Japan parliamentary vote, Australia rare earth shares rise

U.S. and Australia sign critical minerals agreement with $8.5 billion project pipeline

Published Mon, Oct 20 2025 1:17 PM EDT Updated Mon, Oct 20 2025 4:04 PM EDT

President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Monday signed an agreement on critical minerals and rare earths that Albanese said includes plans for projects worth a total of up to $8.5 billion.

Albanese, during a meeting with Trump at the White House, said, “There will be $1 billion contributed from Australia and the United States over the next six months with projects that are immediately available.”

But the White House subsequently issued a fact sheet that said the countries would invest more than $3 billion in critical mineral projects over the next six months. It described the agreement as a “framework.”

The White House also said that the Export-Import Bank of the United States will issue seven letters of interest for more than $2.2 billion in financing, unlocking up to $5 billion in total investment.

CNBC has asked the White House and the Australian prime minister’s office for clarification on the discrepancy between what Albanese said and what the fact sheet said.

The framework agreement between Australia and the U.S. comes as the Trump administration is seeking to establish a critical mineral and rare earths supply chain that is not dependent on China.

Rare earths are a subset of critical minerals. They are used to produce magnets that are crucial inputs in U.S. weapons platforms, semiconductor manufacturing, robotics and electric vehicles among other applications.

China dominates the global rare earths supply chain, particularly refining and processing. The U.S. is dependent on Beijing for rare earths imports. Australia, a close U.S. ally, is one of the few countries in the world other than China that processes rare earths.

Pentagon investment in Australia

Albanese said there will be three groups of joint projects between the two countries, which will include companies such as Alcoa. The U.S. will invest in rare earths processing in Australia, the prime minister said. One project is a joint venture between Australia, the U.S. and Japan, he said.

“What we’re trying to do here is to take the opportunities which are there,” Albanese told reporters.

The Pentagon will invest in building a gallium refinery in western Australia with a capacity of 100 metric tons per year, according to the White House. Alcoa announced in August that it is exploring the feasability of a gallium project with Japan at one of the company’s alumina refineries in western Australia.

“In about a year from now, we’ll have so much critical mineral and rare earths that you won’t know what to do with them,” Trump told reporters. The U.S. is also working with other nations to build a supply chain that isn’t dependent on China, the president said.

China-U.S. tensions

China announced strict export controls on rare earths earlier this month, pushing Beijing and Washington to the brink of a renewed trade war. Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese goods starting Nov. 1 or sooner if Beijing does not back down.

“They threatened us with rare earths, and I threatened them with tariffs, but I could also threaten them with many other things, like airplanes,” Trump said Monday.

Trump confirmed he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month. The U.S. president said he will visit China early next year.

“We had presidents that allowed China and other countries get away with murder,” Trump said. “We’re not going to allow that, but we’re going to have a fair deal. I want to be good to China. I love my relationship with President Xi. We have a great relationship.”

U.S. and Australia sign critical minerals agreement

Supreme Court Is Told Trump Tariffs Are Illegal $3 Trillion Tax

October 20, 2025

(Bloomberg) -- Small businesses challenging many of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs urged the US Supreme Court to affirm lower court rulings that the import levies amount to a massive illegal tax on American companies.

Trump usurped the power of Congress to tax when he issued levies in February and April under an emergency law that was never intended to be used to impose duties, one of the companies, Learning Resources Inc., said in a brief Monday. The justices are set to hear arguments Nov. 5 in the high-stakes case.

“In the months since, he has raised and lowered, paused and resumed, and threatened and unthreatened tariffs at will, for a grab bag of reasons,” Learning Resources said. “By the government’s own account, those actions amount to an over $3 trillion tax increase on Americans over the next decade.”

The justices are set to determine if Trump legally issued the tariffs under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a law that gives the president a panoply of financial tools to address national security, foreign policy and economic emergencies. The US trade court ruled against Trump in a decision that was upheld by a federal appeals court.

Trump says his tariffs are authorized legally under the law, known as IEEPA, because a key provision of the statute says the president can “regulate” the “importation” of property to address an emergency.

The justices on Sept. 9 agreed to hear the case on an unusually aggressive schedule that suggests the court will try to resolve the case quickly. The tariffs remain in place for now, even though the federal appeals court ruled that the president exceeded his authority by imposing them.

The challenged taxes include Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs, which impose levies of 10%-50% on most US imports depending on the country they come from. Trump justified the levies under IEEPA by declaring US trade deficits to be a national emergency.

The White House didn’t immediately respond to a message seeking comment.

The appeal also covers tariffs Trump imposed on Canada, Mexico and China for allegedly failing to stem the flow of migrants and fentanyl trafficking. Trump said the situation at the borders also constituted a national emergency under IEEPA.

Trump administration officials have downplayed the impact of the litigation by saying that most of the tariffs can be imposed by other legal avenues. Trump’s tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles were imposed under a different law, so are not directly affected by the appeal.

In a second brief filed on Monday, lawyers for a separate group of small businesses led by wine and liquor distributor V.O.S. Selections Inc. said Trump’s tariffs contradict what the nation’s founders intended when they gave Congress the power to levy taxes.

“The government contends that the president may impose tariffs on the American people whenever he wants, at any rate he wants, for any countries and products he wants, for as long as he wants — simply by declaring longstanding US trade deficits a national emergency and an unusual and extraordinary threat,” the company said. “The president can even change his mind tomorrow and back again the day after that.”

A group of Democratic-led states is also challenging the tariffs.

The cases are Learning Resources v. Trump, 24-1287, and Trump v. V.O.S., 25-250, US Supreme Court.

Supreme Court Is Told Trump Tariffs Are Illegal $3 Trillion Tax

In other news.

L&G: FTSE 100 giant reveals £2bn plan to create 24,000 jobs

Monday 20 October 2025 12:01 am  |  Updated:  Friday 17 October 2025 12:48 pm

FTSE 100 giant Legal & General (L&G) has revealed plans to invest £2bn in regeneration projects across the UK in a move which it said will create around 24,000 jobs.

The group said it would invest into ‘productive assets’ such as infrastructure, affordable housing and urban regeneration between now and 2030.

L&G added that it would help deliver around 10,000 new social and affordable homes across the country.

Funds are to be allocated based on ‘local needs and demand’, the group also said. L&G already has investments live in the likes of Oxford, Glasgow, Cardiff, Newcastle, Salford and Sheffield.

The plans come as the UK government redoubles its efforts to encourage regional growth by using investment from pension funds alongside public funding to deliver housing and infrastructure projects at scale.

António Simões, group chief executive at L&G, said: “As a long-term investor in the UK economy, L&G has a proud history of using pension capital to develop assets that deliver strong financial returns and lasting social impact.

“Our £2bn commitment will help unlock the investment needed in productive assets across the country – creating jobs, strengthening communities, and driving both regional and national growth.”

Reeves targets pension funds’ investment

L&G’s announcement comes ahead of the first-ever Regional Investment Summit in Birmingham on Tuesday, 21 October.

There, Sterling 20 – a new investor-led partnership of 20 of Britain’s largest pension providers and insurers – will meet to identify and fund key infrastructure projects across the UK.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves added: “This is about getting Britain building again – bringing our savings, our investors and our regions together to deliver the homes, infrastructure and industries that will drive growth and create good jobs in every corner of the country.  

“Our country’s pension funds are some of the biggest in the world. When they invest in Britain, everyone benefits – from the construction worker on site, to the small business on the high street, to the saver seeing their pension grow.

“Sterling 20 shows what can be achieved when we all pull in the same direction to build a stronger economy that works for, and rewards, working people.” 

L&G’s previous regional investments have included a £50m partnership with Newcastle City Council and Newcastle University which helped transform the former Scottish and Newcastle Brewery site into the 24-acre Newcastle Helix.

The £1bn City Square development in Cardiff was also supposed by L&G alongside the city council.

The scheme helped to create new transport links, offices and homes, helping to generate 13,000 jobs.

L&G’s claim that it will create around 24,000 direct, indirect and induced jobs was calculated using National Housing Federation – Local Economic Impact Calculator and RICS UK commercial real estate impact report.

L&G: FTSE 100 giant reveals £2bn plan to create 24,000 jobs

Fall in China's exports of rare earth magnets stokes supply chain fears

20 October 2025

BEIJING (Reuters) -China's exports of rare earth magnets fell in September, reigniting fears that the world's top supplier could wield its dominance over a component key for U.S. defence firms and makers of items from cars to smartphones as leverage in trade talks.

In April and May, Beijing squeezed global automakers with export curbs on a range of rare earths items and related magnets, while negotiators faced off over triple-digit U.S. tariffs on goods from the world's second-largest economy.

Four months on, after Washington and Beijing unexpectedly reprised threats of fresh tariffs and rare earth export curbs, worry is growing that China could return to the same playbook.

That would mean it reneges on a June deal with the United States to ease the flow of critical minerals.

China's shipments of rare earth magnets fell 6.1% in September from August, customs data showed on Monday, ending three months of gains, and dropping even before Beijing unveiled a dramatic expansion of its export licensing regime this month.

"The sharp swings in rare earth magnet exports show that China knows it holds a key card in international trade talks," said Chim Lee, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

EXPORTS FALL FROM AUGUST'S SEVEN-MONTH HIGH

The September fall to 5,774 tons from a seven-month high of 6,146 tons in August aligns with reports that China is already making it harder for firms to secure licences for exports of rare earth magnets.

Its commerce ministry is applying scrutiny similar to that seen in April, at the height of the trade war.

On an annual basis, September shipments rose 17.5%.

Last week, China's commerce ministry accused the United States of stoking global panic over its rare earth controls by deliberately misunderstanding the curbs, and said it would approve export licences intended for civilian use.

Still, analysts worry China could once again entangle civilian commercial users in curbs aimed at choking U.S. defence firms' access to critical materials.

"China's ability to throttle rare earth exports is an exceptionally powerful tool," said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group.

Apart from disrupting production, such measures would fuel insecurity over access to critical industrial inputs and growing reliance on China, she added.

"The world has to adjust to its management style," she said, adding that Western countries are not used to complying with a monopolistic control of critical resources from countries on 'the other side'.

By country, Germany, South Korea, Vietnam, the United States and Mexico were the top five export destinations for Chinese rare earth magnets by volume last month.

Over the nine months of the year, exports of such magnets totalled 39,817 tons, a fall of 7.5% from the corresponding 2024 period.

NO SIGN OF BEIJING BACKING DOWN

Shipments to the United States fell 28.7% in September on the month, the data showed, while exports to Vietnam rose 57.5% over the same period.

The Netherlands processed 109% more rare earth magnets than in August, though the figure is skewed by the huge Rotterdam port, a major transit hub for Europe-bound trade.

Just before the release of the data, President Donald Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he did not want China to "play the rare earth game with us".

He suggested he might hold off on raising tariffs back to levels in excess of 100% if the world's top agricultural buyer committed to purchasing U.S. soybeans.

But Beijing shows no sign of backing down, adamant that its new wider curbs, set to take effect just days before the November 10 expiry of the latest 90-day tariff truce with the United States, are consistent with measures in other major economies.

President Xi Jinping is set to meet Trump in South Korea later this month, but economists warn that trade friction between the two biggest economies may be the new normal.

"The surge in exports during the third quarter came after it (China) eased export controls earlier in the year, but that's likely to drop again following the tighter restrictions introduced recently," added EIU analyst Chim Lee.

Fall in China's exports of rare earth magnets stokes supply chain fears

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Americans more worried about finding jobs as inflation persists under Trump

Chris Williams  Mon, October 20, 2025 at 1:59 AM GMT+1

WASHINGTON - An Associated Press–NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll finds that Americans are becoming increasingly worried about their job prospects under President Donald Trump — a potential warning sign for Republicans as the once-promised economic boom has shifted toward hiring freezes and persistent inflation.

High prices for groceries, housing and health care persist as a fear for many households, while rising electricity bills and the cost of gas at the pump are also sources of anxiety, according to the survey.

By the numbers

Some 47% of U.S. adults are "not very" or "not at all confident" they could find a good job if they wanted to, an increase from 37% when the question was last asked in October 2023.

Electricity bills are a "major" source of stress for 36% of U.S. adults at a time when the expected build-out of data centers for artificial intelligence could further tax the power grid. Just more than one-half said the cost of groceries are a "major" source of financial stress, about 4 in 10 said the cost of housing and health care were a serious strain and about one-third said they were feeling high stress about gasoline prices.

The survey suggests an ongoing vulnerability for Trump, who returned to the White House in January with claims he could quickly tame the inflation that surged after the pandemic during Democratic President Joe Biden's term. Instead, Trump's popularity on the economy has remained low amid a mix of tariffs, federal worker layoffs and partisan sniping that has culminated in a government shutdown.

Local perspective

Linda Weavil, 76, voted for Trump last year because he "seems like a smart businessman." But she said in an interview that the Republican's tariffs have worsened inflation, citing the chocolate-covered pecans sold for her church group fundraiser that now cost more.

"I think he’s doing a great job on a lot of things, but I’m afraid our coffee and chocolate prices have gone up because of tariffs," the retiree from Greensboro, North Carolina, said. "That’s a kick in the back of the American people."

More

Americans more worried about finding jobs as inflation persists under Trump

This vital ingredient suggests the U.S. economy is still faring OK — with no recession brewing

October 20, 2025

When the U.S. economy shows sign of stress, one of the first things Americans strike from their budgets are takeout dinners and going out to restaurants. It’s one of the best early warning signs of recession.

Well, people are not cutting back much right now, especially wealthier ones. And that’s a good sign for the economy amid a turbulent year marked by the return of Donald Trump to the White House, the biggest trade wars since the Great Depression and the latest shutdown of the federal government.

Sales at U.S. bars and restaurants rose 6.5% in the 12 months ended in August, government data showed, up from 4.3% a year earlier. Americans also spent generously on food outside of their homes in the spring and summer.

The restaurant business has shown “surprising resilience despite all the headwinds,” said Chad Moutray, chief economist at the National Restaurant Association. “The good news is I don’t see a recession — consumers are hanging in there.”

Sales and deals

What’s keeping restaurants busy?

The economy is still growing, for one thing, and that’s kept layoffs and unemployment surprisingly low. Companies see little reason to cut staff when sales are stable and good help is already hard to find.

Americans tend to spend more freely when they feel secure in their jobs, economists point out. Not only that, but incomes are rising faster than inflation.

What’s more, the record boom in the stock market has added a gale-force tailwind to consumer spending, particularly for wealthier households.

“The stock market’s recent strength has been a significant driver,” said Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

Consider the strength of online restaurant reservations.

The site OpenTable reported that reservations last week were up 12% from a year earlier. Most of the restaurants that partner with OpenTable are higher-end establishments catering to upper-income Americans.

Fast-food and limited-service restaurants that cater to middle- and lower-income people, for their part, have been able to boost sales by introducing new specials to price-conscious customers.

Take Domino’s The national pizza chain saw improved sales in the spring after it introduced new value meals, such as a $9.99 pizza special.

“The winners here are the brands that have done a great job of conveying value,” Moutray said.

Changing tastes

That’s not to say all is well in the food world — it isn’t. Restaurants have struggled this year with rising costs for ingredients such as beef, scarce labor and more finicky customers.

Restaurant owners say customers have adopted all kinds of new habits to try to keep their bills down. They choose smaller portions, split more entrees or even order kids’ meals.

In Atlanta, “diners continued to pull back by skipping desserts and alcoholic beverages,” the Federal Reserve said in its latest survey of the economy.

All this penny-pinching has reduced the appetite of restaurants and food preparers to hire more workers. The industry employs some 15 million people — or nearly 1 in 10 workers — but new jobs have hardly grown this year.

In the first eight months of this year, bars and restaurants added a mere 13,000 jobs, Bureau of Labor Statistics data show.

By contrast, the industry created 40,000 jobs in the first eight months of 2024 and a much larger 173,000 in the same eight-month period in 2023.

Moutray said foot traffic at restaurants has been flat to negative overall in the early fall, prompting business owners to become more conservative, like their customers.

“More than 70% of owners say they expect to hold hiring flat over the next six months,” he said.

Still, sales are holding up pretty well.

Bank of America said credit-card spending at bars and restaurants was up 3.2% in early October compared with a year earlier. That’s in line with the trend over the past few years, when the economy was even stronger.

The path forward

So what could go wrong?

Lower-income households are feeling more stress due to rising inflation and a more uncertain economy. They are cutting out trips to fast-food restaurants and buying cheaper foods at supermarkets — so much so that the 1970s stable Hamburger Helper is making a comeback.

The cost of food has risen so much that even value chains such as McDonald’s have suffered a decline in traffic among certain segments of the population.

In the second quarter, for instance, McDonald’s reported a decline in visits from lower-income customers who have long been critical to its business. The company said it would focus more on promotions to try to lure them back.

“Re-engaging the low-income consumer is critical, as they typically visit our restaurants more frequently than middle- and high-income consumers,” McDonald’s Chief Executive Chris Kempczinski said last month.

A stock-market meltdown could pose an even bigger threat, since wealthier Americans are the biggest spenders on takeout and fine dining.

Families with annual incomes of $100,000 or more only represent 43% of all households — but they account for nearly 60% of all restaurant spending, research shows.

This vital ingredient suggests the U.S. economy is still faring OK — with no recession brewing

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Today, the Air India flight 171 crash explained. Pilots exonerated. Approx. 32 minutes.

Air India Crash - Cause of AI 171 Crash #airindiacrash

Air India Crash - Cause of AI 171 Crash #airindiacrash

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

FIAT

Noun. Decree, command, edict, mandate, permission. A cheap Italian car.

FIAT CURRENCY

A currency whose value is whatever it is decreed to be, undetermined by market forces.

One US Dollar.

WAMPUM

Noun. Beads used as money by extinct N. American Indians. Had a value of whatever the Chief said.