Baltic
Dry Index. 2112 +69 Brent Crude 71.99
Spot Gold 5194 Spot Silver 87.98
US 2 Year Yield 3.43 -0.05
US Federal Debt. 38.725 trillion
US GDP 31.182 trillion.
The budget was unlimited, but I exceeded it.
Donald Trump
After first rallying on Trump’s tariffs getting struck down by the US Supreme Court, Monday in the US stock casinos brought in the reality of tariff chaos, the possibility/probability of the US government having to repay (with interest,) about 150 billion of illegal tariffs and a belligerent President Trump threatening the rest of the world’s global trade.
Increasingly, the rest of the world is starting to turn away from a belligerent, increasingly erratic Trump’s America.
Asia markets trade mixed after Trump revives
tariff threat and AI fears hit tech
Published Mon, Feb 23 2026 7:00 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Tuesday
as investors weighed renewed tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump
and concerns that artificial intelligence could disrupt software companies.
Trump posted on Truth Social Monday that
any country that wants to “play games” with the Supreme Court decision “will be
met with a much higher tariff.”
The comments followed a Supreme Court
decision Friday striking
down tariffs enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. In
response, Trump said he would impose a 15% global tariff under Section 122 of
the 1974 Trade Act.
“We expect limited changes to the
agreements already in place and also as we expect President Trump to use these
means to improve his bargaining position with those countries where agreements
are being negotiated,” said Lorraine Tan, director of equity research of
Morningstar, adding that she expects market reactions to remain muted.
Investors in Asia were also assessing
China’s loan prime rate decision. China’s central bank on Tuesday keeping its
benchmark lending rates unchanged at 3% for the one-year LPR and 3.5% for the
five-year LPR.
The one-year LPR serves as a benchmark for
new commercial loans, while the five-year LPR guides property loans.
Markets in mainland China were up 1.33% as
the market reopens after the Lunar New Year holiday.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was down
1.93%, dragged down by healthcare stocks. Labubu maker Pop Mart was the largest
loser on the index, shedding 5.39%, after it released a new toy series Monday.
South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.81%, reaching a
new record high for the third straight session and powered by a chip rally,
while the small-cap Kosdaq added 0.73%.
The Taiwan Weighted index also rode the
chip rally to lead Asian markets, advancing 2.59%. Chip giant Taiwan
Semiconductor Manufacturing Company rose over 3.68%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.94%,
while the Topix was down marginally.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gave up
early gains, falling 0.1%.
Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped
1.66%, while the Nasdaq
Composite declined 1.13%. The S&P 500 shed 1.04%.
Cybersecurity stocks dropped for a second
day on Monday as investors fretted over new artificial intelligence security
tools that threaten to displace the sector’s longstanding
business models.
Anthropic on
Friday debuted a new
security tool to its Claude model in a limited research preview. The
AI lab said the service could scan software code for vulnerabilities and
suggest solutions. Anthropic is scheduled to host an enterprise briefing with
new product announcements on Tuesday.Samantha Subin
Software
stocks such as Microsoft and CrowdStrike were under
pressure once again as AI disruption worries weighed on the market. Microsoft
dropped 3%, while CrowdStrike retreated nearly 10%.
Asia
markets trade mixed after Trump revives tariff threat and AI fears hit tech
Dow drops 800 points as AI disruption fears and
tariff woes weigh on markets: Live updates
Updated Mon, Feb 23 2026 4:14 PM EST
U.S. equities tumbled on Monday as
investors grappled with persistent
fears around artificial intelligence disruptions to various industries
and President Donald Trump’s decision
to raise his
global tariffs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped
821.91 points, or 1.66%, to close at 48,804.06, while the Nasdaq Composite declined
1.13% and ended at 22,627.27. The S&P 500 shed 1.04% and
closed at 6,837.75, putting it into the red once again for 2026.
The 30-stock Dow was dragged down by IBM shares, which declined 13%
on the heels of Anthropic outlining new
programming capabilities for its Claude Code product.
Software
stocks such as Microsoft and CrowdStrike were under
pressure yet again as AI disruption worries hovered over the market. Microsoft
dropped 3%, while CrowdStrike retreated nearly 10%. Software hasn’t been the
only sector to be hit due to AI fears recently: Stocks linked to trucking
and logistics, commercial
real estate and financial
services have similarly suffered losses this month.
Concerns around what AI could mean for the
economy were fueled this past weekend after Citrini Research put out a piece of
research on how the AI boom could hurt the broader economy, as it would lead to
10% unemployment.
The research paper was cited by Wall
Street trading floors for the weakness seen in software stocks, as well as
financials. American Express lost
7%, weighing down the Dow. Mastercard shares
dropped nearly 6%.
In contrast, defensive areas of the market
such as consumer staples outperformed.
Shares of Walmart and Procter & Gamble led the
way there, rising more than 2% each.
Tariff turmoil continues
Trump continued to assert his ability to
increase tariffs on Monday, warning
of higher duties for countries that want to “play games” after
the Supreme Court struck
down his “reciprocal” tariffs last week.
That comes after the president on Saturday
said he would increase
the global tariff rate to 15%, up from the 10% he announced on Friday.
Trump added that the new duties would go into effect immediately, though it was
unclear whether any official documents had been signed outlining the timing. He
also said that additional levies would be coming in the next few months.
European officials expressed
concern regarding the action, signaling that it could pose a threat
its trade deals with the U.S. In fact, the European Parliament announced Monday
that it has paused
work on ratifying the trade agreement reached between the U.S. and the
European Union.
Stocks such as Wayfair and Nike — two names that popped
in the previous session after the high court’s ruling — declined on Monday.
Gold prices gained Monday, as the new
tariffs heightened market uncertainty about the outlook for inflation and
global growth. Spot gold advanced
more than 2%, while gold
futures rose more than 3%.
Bitcoin slumped, tumbling
to below
$65,000. It remains down more than 4% as the cryptocurrency’s sharp
sell-off continues.
Volatility surrounding Trump’s global
tariff policy — which was invoked under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, a
statute that allows the president to impose the duties for 150 days until
Congressional approval is needed — may not be over anytime soon.
“The big question for the economy is what
happens after this window, and if the tariff policy stays down this path, we
may very well be back at the Supreme Court later this year,” said Michael
Landsberg, chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth
Management. “The push and pull with tariffs is likely to be a distracting theme
for markets for the remainder of the year, albeit with less volatility than the
initial shock last April.”
Stock
market news for Feb. 23, 2026
Europe Hits Pause After Trump Tariff Defeat
February 23, 2026 at 10:57 PM GMT
Donald Trump’s rare defeat last week
before the Supreme Court continued
to resonate Monday as US trading partners stepped back to
reassess compromises and deals they made with the president over the past year.
The European Union froze ratification of
its US accord until the dust settled around a new White House strategy in
the global trade war Trump launched almost a year ago. The EU’s initial read on
Trump’s latest tariff proposals is that they
violate the agreement it made with him last year.
“We want to have clarity about the
situation,” European Parliament trade committee chair Bernd
Lange said Monday. “We want to have clarity from the US that they are
respecting the deal because that’s a crucial element.”
For his part, Trump responded with
fresh threats. But with midterm elections approaching and his approval
rating hitting
new lows, Democrats appear to smell weakness when it comes to his trade
war. Some of the party’s biggest names are seizing on Trump’s loss to
wage a populist election-year campaign to refund
all those billions of dollars in tariffs to taxpayers. —David
E. Rovella
EU
Hits Pause After Trump Tariff Loss: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
FedEx sues for refund of Trump tariffs, days after
Supreme Court ruling
Published Mon, Feb 23 2026 6:02 PM EST
Federal
Express on Monday sued the U.S. government, seeking a “full refund”
of the money the shipping giant paid for tariffs unilaterally
imposed last year by President Donald
Trump, which the Supreme
Court ruled last week were illegal.
FedEx’s suit appears to be the first filed
by a major American company seeking a refund for tariffs after Friday’s Supreme
Court decision.
Other companies filed lawsuits staking
claims to their refunds before the high court ruled that the tariffs Trump
imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are illegal.
Those suits, whose plaintiffs include
retail warehouse club giant Costco,
remain pending at the U.S. Court of International Trade in New York, the
same court where FedEx filed its lawsuit.
The Supreme Court, in its ruling on
Friday, said the Court of International Trade has “exclusive jurisdiction” over
the IEEPA tariffs.
“Plaintiffs seek for themselves a full
refund from Defendants of all IEEPA duties Plaintiffs have paid to the United
States,” Federal Express Corp, and its associated company, FedEx Logistics,
said in the new lawsuit.
The 11-page complaint names as defendants
U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which collects tariffs, its commissioner,
Rodney Scott, and the U.S. government.
CNBC has requested comment on the suit
from CBP and the White House.
The suit does not say how much FedEx has
paid in IEEPA tariffs since Trump imposed them on most U.S. trading partners
last year.
But in September, FedEx had said that it
expected it would take a $1 billion hit to its earnings for the fiscal year
because of U.S. trade policies, not all of which involved IEEPA duties. That
dollar amount represents 16% of total earnings for the prior fiscal year.
More
FedEx
sues for refund of Trump tariffs after Supreme Court ruling
In other news, the world turns to China.
The World.
February 23, 2026
Good morning, world! The
procession of Western leaders flocking to Beijing in recent weeks has been
impressive. Last month, Mark Carney went, the first Canadian leader to visit in
almost a decade. He signed a strategic partnership with a country that has
imprisoned Canadian nationals and was accused of meddling in Canada’s
elections.
Next up was Keir Starmer, reversing years
of frosty relations in the first visit by a British leader since 2018. This
week, it’s the German chancellor’s turn. More than a million German jobs depend
on exports to China.
Not so long ago, Western countries talked
about diversifying away from China. Now the opposite is happening. I called my
colleague David Pierson, who covers China, to understand why.
No longer distancing from China
David, Western leaders have always flocked
to China with their C.E.O.s. What’s different about the current stream of
visitors?
It’s the context, right? You’ve seen
tensions grow between the United States and Europe. Not long ago, Western
leaders were looking for ways to “de-risk,” or distance themselves from China
to reduce their countries’ reliance on its supply chains and market. Now, they
are moving back toward China again — because they’re de-risking from a more
unreliable United States.
But how reliable a partner is China?
There’s a reason people wanted to diversify away from China, right?
That’s the thing. As I wrote
recently,
China hasn’t changed. It still threatens to close its markets to imports or
restrict the sale of valuable exports like critical minerals when it’s unhappy
with another country. And China has done nothing to pull back its economic and
diplomatic support for Russia and its war in Ukraine despite all the
protestations from Europe.
The bottom line is, China doesn’t actually
need to offer incentives to these Western leaders. It’s just an alternative to
the U.S. at a time when countries are scrambling to rebalance.
What leverage do Western countries have
left on things they care about? Like China dumping huge amounts of products on
global markets?
Honestly, not a lot. Britain and Canada do
not export many valuable things to China. They just don’t have the same
leverage that they used to over China. Germany is in a very, very tough spot.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz is going over there to preserve the business that
still exists for German companies, but the reality is, there is very little he
can do to slow Chinese firms from replacing German ones in the global market
Meanwhile, China has shown that it can go
toe to toe with the most powerful country in the world. President Trump took
the fight to China, and President Xi Jinping stood up to him and turned it
around by using its trump card (no pun intended!): its monopoly over the supply
and processing of rare earth
minerals that
are used in everything from computer chips and batteries to wind turbines and
missiles. So China is emboldened on the world stage. Say what you will about Xi
Jinping, he never underestimates his leverage. Many analysts think that he’s
played this quite well.
More
The World:
Courting China again
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
From
Dimon’s ‘cockroaches’ to the Blue Owl freeze: How stress is spreading in
private credit
Published
Mon, Feb 23 2026 11:52 PM EST
Private
credit’s $3 trillion boom is facing its most serious test yet.
A string of bankruptcies, fraud indictments and redemption freezes is exposing
vulnerabilities in the fast-growing corner of finance that flourished in the
post-2008 era of low rates and loose liquidity.
“The
‘Golden Era’ of private credit just hit a wall. Blue
Owl Capital’s decision to permanently halt redemptions for its $1.6B OBDC
II fund isn’t just a corporate hiccup,” said Jian Liu, Founder and Managing
Partner at Lionhill Wealth Management.
“It’s
a systemic warning sign for the entire non-bank financial ecosystem,” he added.
Here’s
a timeline of the industry’s recent stress points:
More
Private
credit's golden era over? Timeline of the industry's cracks
Trump’s tariff defeat: India and China big winners; US allies pay the
price
TOI Business Desk /
TIMESOFINDIA.COM / Feb 23, 2026, 11:52 IST
The US Supreme Court on
Friday upended President Donald Trump’s tariff playbook - and temporarily
flipped the winners-and-losers board for major exporters, with India and China
among the clearest beneficiaries.
Strategy | Here’s How
What happened: The court struck down Trump’s emergency tariffs
imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as
illegal.What changes now: Trump is replacing that framework with a
15% global tariff under Section 122, which lasts 150 days unless Congress
extends it.Immediate operational shift: US Customs and Border
Protection said it will halt collections of IEEPA-related tariffs at 12:00am
EST Tuesday, and deactivate associated tariff codes, Reuters reported.
Why it matters
·
his is less a tariff “rollback” than a tariff
system reboot - and it reshapes bargaining power for India and others precisely
when Trump is trying to convert tariff pressure into broader trade and
geopolitical wins.
·
Morgan Stanley’s economists argued that uncertainty
is easing even amid the chaos, writing: “the peak level of uncertainty on
tariffs and trade tensions has passed,” per Bloomberg.
·
But the court ruling also narrows Trump’s ability
to rapidly dial tariffs up or down at will - potentially strengthening
counterparties at the negotiating table, especially China ahead of Trump’s
planned Beijing trip.
Winners
India
The US SC ruling injects leverage - and uncertainty
- into a fast-moving trade negotiation with Washington.* New Delhi has
postponed its trade delegation trip to Washington to finalize the legal text of
an interim framework as officials assess whether the ruling creates “elbow
room” to seek better terms.* India delayed the trip “chiefly because of fresh
tariff uncertainty out of the US,” a sign Delhi sees both risk and opportunity
in the legal reset.
China
Beijing gains negotiating
space right before a high-stakes leader-level meeting.* Bloomberg framed the
court decision as a direct hit to one of Trump’s fastest levers over China:
sweeping emergency tariffs. With those struck down, China is left facing the
same 15% global fee applied to US allies, rather than punitive, fast-escalating
emergency rates.* China’s commerce ministry struck a measured tone Monday,
saying it is making a "full assessment" and urging Washington to lift
"relevant unilateral tariff measures". It also warned, "US
unilateral tariffs ... violate international trade rules and US domestic law,
and are not in the interests of any party," adding "Cooperation
between China and the United States is beneficial to both sides, but fighting
is harmful," per Reuters.* Markets reacted quickly: Reuters and Bloomberg
both noted Chinese stocks in Hong Kong rose as investors priced in near-term
relief.
Brazil, Canada, Mexico
Countries previously hammered by special
executive orders get the biggest mathematical “relief” - for now.* The
Financial Times cited analysis by Global Trade Alert showing Brazil enjoys the
largest average tariff reduction (down 13.6 percentage points), followed by
China (down 7.1 percentage points).* Bloomberg and FT also flagged Canada and
Mexico as winners because fentanyl-related levies were knocked out with the
IEEPA tariffs - and Bloomberg noted that if USMCA exemptions remain, they’re in
a “very favorable position.”
more
Trump's Tariff Overhaul: Winners and Losers in Global Trade | Business -
The Times of India
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Mercedes recalls EQB EVs over battery fire risk that could ignite
parked cars
February 22, 2026
Mercedes-Benz is recalling EQB electric
SUVs in the United States after recall documents filed with the National
Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) warn of a high-voltage battery
defect that can increase the risk of a fire, including when vehicles are parked
and powered off. The recall, filed with the National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration, follows an earlier campaign that attempted to address the same
underlying flaw with software fixes and charging restrictions. That initial
remedy reached only about 74% of affected owners, and the persistence of the
defect now forces a more aggressive response: full battery replacement.
A Defect That Burns While You Sleep
The core problem described in the recall
documents is the potential for an internal electrical short circuit inside the
high-voltage battery pack. Unlike many automotive recalls that involve risks
during driving, the recall documents warn the defect could lead to thermal
events and a fire even when the vehicle is off and unattended. For EQB owners
who park in attached garages or shared underground structures, a vehicle fire
can pose risks beyond the vehicle itself, including potential damage to nearby
property and other vehicles.
NHTSA cataloged the original defect
under Campaign 25V050000, which confirmed that the EQB high-voltage battery may fail internally.
The agency’s staged remedy history shows that Mercedes initially responded with
interim guidance, a charging limit, and a battery management system software
update. Those measures were designed to reduce the likelihood of a short
circuit but did not eliminate the root cause. The later move to a
battery-replacement remedy indicates Mercedes is now addressing the issue with
a hardware fix rather than relying only on software and charging guidance.
Second Recall Escalates the Fix
The follow-up recall, documented
in Part 573 Safety Recall Report 26V073, was filed on February 13, 2026. It calls for
authorized Mercedes dealers to replace the defective battery packs at no cost
to owners. The report noted that the completion rate for the original recall
stood at approximately 74% at the time of filing, meaning roughly one in four
affected vehicles had not yet received even the earlier, less aggressive fix.
That gap leaves a significant number of EQBs on the road or in garages with
batteries that have received no mitigation at all.
A 74% completion rate is not unusual for
automotive recalls in general, but the stakes here are higher than a typical
component failure. Vehicle fires involving high-voltage batteries can be
difficult to extinguish, and safety agencies often advise caution when dealing
with battery-related fire risks. For the quarter of owners who never brought
their vehicles in for the software update and charging limit, the risk profile
has remained unchanged since the defect was first identified. The transition
from a software-based remedy to a battery replacement underscores that the
updated campaign is intended to address the underlying defect rather than only
mitigate risk through charging limits and software changes.
European Regulators Flag the Same Risk
The concern is not limited to the U.S.
market. European authorities have also published safety alerts through
the EU Safety Gate system describing fire risk concerns tied to
high-voltage batteries on certain Mercedes models, including EQA and EQB
listings. The inclusion of the EQA in the European alert suggests the battery
defect may affect a broader range of Mercedes electric vehicles than the U.S.
recall currently covers, though NHTSA’s published campaigns to date have
focused specifically on the EQB.
The parallel notices on both sides of
the Atlantic suggest the concern is tied to the high-voltage battery component
rather than a market-specific issue. However, the public-facing notices do not,
by themselves, establish the precise root cause or where in the supply chain
the defect originated. Neither NHTSA nor the EU Safety Gate notices have
published direct statements or testing results from the battery supplier, which
limits public understanding of what specifically went wrong at the cell level
and whether corrective action has been taken at the factory.
More
Mercedes recalls EQB EVs over battery fire risk that could ignite parked
cars
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
If credit expansion, protectionism, and government spending were
a path to prosperity, mankind would have long ago created heaven on earth.
Llewellyn Rockwell
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