Baltic Dry Index. 2028 -96 Brent Crude 67.85
Spot Gold 5102 Spot Silver 87.76
US 2 Year Yield 3.57 unch.
US Federal Debt. 38.692 trillion US GDP 31.123 trillion.
The state is the great fictitious entity by which everyone seeks to live at the expense of everyone else.
Frederic Bastiat
Was Friday’s precious metals collapse rigged? It certainly looks that way to me. But by who and why? Don’t expect any answers from the CME or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission nor the London Bullion Marketing Association.
But where are Friday’s precious metals losses hiding? How long can they stay hidden?
In the stock casinos, a tech selloff triggered by a new AI threat. A capital wars warning from Ray Dalio.
As the official US federal debt races towards 40 trillion, our stock and commodity markets have become destabilised.
Gold extends gains, breaking past $5,000; Asia
stocks mostly track Wall Street losses on tech pullback
Published Tue, Feb 3 2026 7:00 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell
Wednesday, tracking Wall Street losses after a sell-off in U.S. technology
stocks weighed on sentiment, while gold extended gains for a second day.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 1.2%,
dragged by tech stocks. Among the biggest losers on the index were chip
equipment maker Lasertec,
which plunged 7%, and game maker Konami Group, which lost
5.8%. Japanese semiconductor equipment powerhouse Tokyo Electron also
declined 3.2%.
The Topix declined 0.39%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 reversed
course and rose 0.45%.
South Korea’s Kospi advanced 0.4%, while
the small-cap Kosdaq added 1.01%.
Nintendo shares dropped more than 9%, despite
maintaining its full-year sales forecast for the Switch 2 console, as
investors assessed several
potential headwinds for the gaming giant, including whether the company will be
impacted by an unprecedented surge in memory prices — a key component in its
consoles.
Hong Kong Hang Seng index declined
0.1%, while the CSI 300 fell 0.28%.
Spot gold prices added more than 1% to
$5,002 per ounce, while spot silver added 0.69% to $85.70 per ounce.
Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 pulled back as
investors dumped technology stocks and moved into shares more broadly linked to
improvements in the economy.
The broad market index fell 0.84% and
closed at 6,917.81. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average dipped 166.67 points, or 0.34%, to end at
49,240.99. Earlier, the 30-stock index rose as much as 0.5% to touch 49,653.13,
a new record. The Nasdaq
Composite shed 1.43%, settling at 23,255.19.
Most tech shares were in the red,
including most of the “Magnificent Seven” names that have reported earnings so
far — Microsoft and Meta Platforms were both down
more than 2%, while Apple was
marginally lower. Nvidia also
slumped, with the artificial intelligence bellwether’s nearly 3% drop adding to
its losses for the year. Meanwhile, software stocks continued their 2026
tumble, with shares of ServiceNow and Salesforce falling by nearly
7% each.
Asia
markets mostly fall, tracking Wall Street losses after a tech-led pullback
Software Stocks Ditched on Fears AI Will Gut
Industry
February 3, 2026 at 11:05 PM GMT
Wall Street sentiment around software
stocks went from bearish to doomsday with traders dumping shares as
fears pile up about the potential destruction coming via artificial
intelligence.
The anxiety was underscored Tuesday after
AI firm Anthropic released a productivity tool for in-house lawyers,
sending legal software and publishing firms tumbling. Selling pressure was
evident across the sector with London Stock Exchange Group falling 13%, while
Thomson Reuters plunged as much as 21%. CS Disco sank as much as 14% and
Legalzoom.com declined 19%.
Concerns around software aren’t new: Last
fall, Apollo Global Management’s John Zito stunned an audience in Toronto when
he said the real threat for private capital markets wasn’t tariffs, inflation
or a prolonged period of elevated interest rates. Rather, he said, “the real
risk is—is software dead?”
Months later, investors are heading for
the exits. “We call it the ‘SaaSpocalypse,’ an apocalypse for
software-as-a-service stocks,” said Jeffrey Favuzza, who works on the equity
trading desk at Jefferies. “Trading is very much ‘get me out’ style selling.”
And here are a few of the alternative investment firms that got hit bad as a result.
Software
Stocks Gutted Over AI Fears: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
Private credit stocks plummet on concern about
exposure to software industry disrupted by AI
Published Tue, Feb 3 2026 3:15 PM EST Updated
Tue, Feb 3 2026 3:32 PM EST
Shares of stocks with significant private
credit market holdings were diving on fears about exposure to the industries
being disrupted by artificial intelligence, most notably, software.
Shares of Blue Owl, TPG, Ares Management and KKR were all down by double
digit percentages on Tuesday. Apollo
Global was off by 7%. BlackRock shed
5%.
Publicly traded software stocks have been
slammed this year as investors grew increasingly concerned about AI eating into
their future growth and profit margins as companies use programs like
Anthropic’s Claude Code to build their own software. The iShares Software ETF is down
20% this year, including another 5% decline on Tuesday.
UBS analysts estimate 25% to 35% of the
private-credit market is exposed to the risk of AI disruption (other sources
say that software, specifically, accounts for about 20 percent of outstanding loans for private-direct
lenders). By comparison, the high yield corporate bond market (Using the iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate bond
ETF as a proxy) has only 8 percent exposure to technology, reflecting a broader
diversification among the syndicated market than the private-credit market.
The publicly traded alternative asset
managers are impacted in two ways – their private-equity side could be hit
because software is rerated lower, which may mean less carry for tech-exposed
or tech-adjacent investments. And then on the private credit side, there’s a
risk of redemptions and, worst case, defaults. UBS estimates default rates
could rise to 13% for private credit firms in the U.S. if AI triggers a big
disruption. Comparatively, the default rate would be 4%for HY, UBS said.
“VC confidence in legacy enterprise SaaS
business models has weakened materially over the last year with rapid change
expected this year,” stated the UBS research. “Rather than an ‘AI Bust’
scenario, we think an ‘AI Disruption’ scenario is more likely with
differentiated risks at an individual subsector and credit level.”
The “cockroaches” being talked about late
last year (See
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s comment) were specific situations, mostly
alleged fraud. This software rerating is a big test for private credit because
of sector concentration and the ubiquity of exposure.
Private
credit stocks plummet on concern about exposure to software industry disrupted
by AI
Ray Dalio warns the world is ‘on the brink’ of a
capital war
Published Tue, Feb 3 2026 8:13 AM EST
Legendary investor Ray Dalio warned on
Tuesday that the world is “on the brink” of a capital war, amid simmering
geopolitical tensions and volatile capital markets.
Speaking to CNBC’s Dan Murphy on stage at
the World Governments Summit in Dubai, Dalio said we are close to teetering
into capital war territory — when money is weaponized using measures like trade
embargoes, blocking access to capital markets, or using ownership of debt as
leverage.
“We are on the brink,” Dalio said. “That
means not in, but it means we are quite close to [capital war], and it would be
very easy to go over the brink into a capital war, because there are mutual
fears.”
He pointed to recent escalating tensions
over the Trump administration’s push to bring
Greenland — a Danish territory — under Washington’s control.
He warned of a “fear” among European
holders of U.S.-denominated assets that they could be sanctioned, and that
“there could be a reciprocal fear on the part of the United States that it
could not get the capital, or not get the buy [from Europe],” he said.
European investors accounted for 80% of
foreign purchases of U.S. Treasurys between April and November, according to
Citi research cited by Reuters.
“Capital, money, matters,” Dalio said on
Tuesday. “We’re seeing capital controls … taking place all over the world
today, and who will experience that is questionable. So, we are on the brink —
that doesn’t mean we are in [a capital war now], but it means that it’s a
logical concern.”
Since returning to the White House last
year, U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed — and walked back from — a swathe
of punitive tariffs on trading partners and political adversaries. Those
decisions have sparked volatility in financial markets.
Dalio added that historically, capital
wars have seen measures such as foreign exchange and capital controls being
implemented — and said that institutions like sovereign wealth funds and
central banks were already making “provisions” to prepare for such controls.
Historically, Dalio noted, capital wars
have developed around “great conflicts.” In the run-up to the U.S. entering the
Second World War, he said, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Japan in an escalation
of the two countries’ “contentious relationship.”
“One could imagine an analogous situation
here, in this world today, between China and the United States, or even it’s
been conjectured and talked about by leaders in different countries about U.S.
and European dependency — because the reverse of a trade deficit … is capital,
that there’s a capital imbalance, and capital could be used as war.”
Gold remains a top hedge
Amid these tensions, gold is still the best place to
store money, Dalio said — after a historic sell-off that dragged
precious metals lower across the board. By Tuesday, gold and silver
were showing tentative signs of recovery.
“It doesn’t change by the day,” he said,
when asked if recent price action should raise questions about gold being the
safest place to park capital.
“Gold is up about 65% from a year ago, and
down about 16% from its high, and I think people make the mistake of thinking,
is it going to go up and down, and should I buy it?” Dalio said.
“Instead, … perhaps central banks or
governments or sovereign wealth funds should say, what percentage of my
portfolio should I have in gold [and] keep a certain percentage, because it’s a
very effective diversifier to other poor parts of the portfolio.”
“Because gold is a diversifier, when the
bad times come along it does uniquely well, and when the good times are
prosperous, less so, [but] it’s an effective diversifier,” Dalio added. “I’d
say the most important thing is have a well-diversified portfolio.”
Ray Dalio warns
the world is ‘on the brink’ of a capital war
In other news, how long before China leads
the world in semiconductors?.
China narrows semiconductor equipment gap
By Ma Si (China Daily) 09:50, February 03, 2026
In a milestone for China's semiconductor
industry, three Chinese equipment manufacturers have ranked among the world's
top 20 by sales for the first time in 2025, according to data from Japanese
research firm Global Net.
This marks an increase from just one
company in the pre-stricter United States-government-restriction era of 2022,
underscoring China's accelerated progress in bolstering the domestic supply
chain.
The progress is an outcome of Chinese
companies' hard work and big investment in beefing up technological prowess,
but a gap still exists in core equipment such as lithography machines, and more
efforts are needed to achieve breakthroughs, experts said.
The sales ranking reveals a climb for
Naura Technology Group, which jumped from eighth place in 2022 to fifth in
2025. It now only trails global giants ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research
and Tokyo Electron.
Founded in 2001, Naura has not yet
disclosed its annual revenue for 2025, and Global Net based the ranking
partially on estimated data. Financial services provider Suntime compiled
forecasts from multiple securities companies to estimate Naura's revenue to
stand between 46.8 and 52 billion yuan ($6.74 billion-$7.49 billion) in 2025.
New to the list at 13th place is Advanced
Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc China, or AMEC, whose etching equipment comes
close to the cutting edge.
In chipmaking, etching is the key process
of selectively removing unwanted material layers from a silicon wafer to
engrave precise 3D patterns, circuits and transistor structures.
Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment,
which specializes in lithography machines that "print" circuit
patterns onto silicon wafers, secured the 20th position. While acknowledging
generational gaps with market leader ASML, the Shanghai-based company's
presence highlights China's domestic capability in this most critical and
challenging segment.
Expanding the list to the top 30 would
include two more Chinese firms — ACM Research and Hwatsing Technology.
This collective ascent is widely viewed as
a direct response to US-led export controls on advanced semiconductor
technologies, which catalyzed China's drive for greater self-sufficiency in
chipmaking tools.
Roger Sheng, vice-president of research at
US market research company Gartner, said: "It's fair to say that Chinese
companies' technological gap with international industry leaders is
continuously narrowing. This progress has provided strong support for domestic
chip manufacturers in their technological upgrades and production expansion
efforts, even amid restrictions on access to US technology and equipment."
The manufacturing of advanced chips
involves over 1,000 process steps, each requiring specialized equipment.
Chinese suppliers can now cover equipment for almost every stage, including
deposition, etching and cleaning. This burgeoning ecosystem includes a wave of
emerging startups, experts said.
Yin Zhiyao, chairman and general manager
of AMEC, said at a meeting in May 2025 that the company's product portfolios
include 30 percent of all the integrated circuit equipment categories, and it
aims to collaborate with partners to offer 60 percent of all high-end IC
equipment categories over the next five to 10 years.
Yin said that AMEC would soon complete the
development of more than 20 types of thin-film equipment that are subject to
international export restrictions to China, and the company aims to finish the
development of nearly 40 thin film equipment by 2029.
Thin film equipment in chipmaking refers
to specialized machinery used to deposit atomic-level layers of conductive,
insulating or semiconducting materials onto silicon wafers.
China's massive domestic market, now the
world's largest for chipmaking equipment, also provides a powerful launchpad.
The global semiconductor industry association SEMI, which has more than 3,000
member companies, estimated that worldwide sales of semiconductor manufacturing
equipment would reach $133 billion in 2025, surpassing the previous record of
$104.3 billion in 2024 and setting an all-time high.
China narrows
semiconductor equipment gap - People's Daily Online
Former Chilean president to run for next UN
secretary-general
Source: Xinhua Editor: huaxia 2026-02-03
01:59:00
UNITED NATIONS, Feb. 2 (Xinhua) -- Former
Chilean President Michelle Bachelet has been recommended as a candidate for the
next UN secretary-general, said the spokeswoman for the president of the UN
General Assembly on Monday.
Bachelet's candidacy was recommended by
her country, Chile, as well as Brazil and Mexico, said La Neice Collins, the
spokeswoman.
The other candidate so far for the top UN
job is Rafael Grossi, director-general of the International Atomic Energy
Agency.
The term for the next UN secretary-general
starts on Jan. 1, 2027.
Former Chilean
president to run for next UN secretary-general-Xinhua
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Sadly and concerningly a rising
trend in early 2026 GB.
UK construction firm plunges into administration - worked for former
Premier League teams
3 February 2026
A construction firm that
has carried out work for former Premier League sides has fallen into administration.
Administrators for Mockba Modular, a family-run business based in Ossett, West
Yorkshire, have now been appointed.
The firm follows a number
of other construction companies to have been placed into administration in
recent weeks amid warnings that Labour tax raids and a slowdown
in building are pushing businesses in the sector to "breaking point". Mockba Modular builds modular buildings that the
company describes as "versatile" and "eco-friendly."
According to its website, it has built facilities for Sheffield Wednesday FC and Huddersfield Town AFC's training grounds.
Wednesday currently play
in the Championship, while Huddersfield are in League One, but both have played
in the Premier League.
Administrators were
appointed for Mockba Modular on Thursday last week, according to a notice
published on the official public record website, The Gazette, on Tuesday.
On its website, Mockba
says it is the "go-to solution for modular buildings".
"We are a family-run
business and pride ourselves on our core values of bringing people together and
have been helping them since 2016 to create efficient, practical spaces that
can be enjoyed."
It adds: "We deliver
you the very best in modular building, helping you to create a versatile,
high-quality and eco-friendly space that suits your unique needs - whether that
be a sporting facility, school classroom or family home."
The Express has contacted
Mockba Modular and the appointed administrators for comment.
UK construction firm plunges into administration - worked for former
Premier League teams
UK high street savaged by 9 brands crashing into administration in
January - full list
2 February 2026
High streets across the
country faced fresh challenges in January, with administrators appointed to
nine brands. Family-run firms and UK-wide chains were pushed to the brink by
soaring energy prices, wage cost increases and the Government's National Insurance
hike.
Footfall continued to be
hit as more of us shop online, leading some well-known brands to exit high streets as owners battle to
keep their businesses afloat. Last month saw retailers, restaurant and pub
chains enter administration, putting hundreds of jobs at risk. This included
Claire's, The Original Factory Shop and Revolution bars owner The Revel Collective.
Here the Express takes a
look at nine of the businesses at risk of disappearing from our towns and cities.
High street chains Claire's and The Original Factory Shop (TOFS) were put into administration after their owner said "last-ditch"
measures had fallen through. About 2,500 UK staff were put at risk of
redundancy.
The two retailers had
already undergone restructuring and were bought by investment firm Modella
Capital last year. Modella said it had made the "tough decision" to
kickstart insolvency proceedings for the businesses.
It will mean 1,355
employees in the UK and Ireland at 154 Claire's shops will be put at risk, and
1,220 staff across 140 TOFS' stores.
Modella said it worked
intensively to save both businesses, but neither had a realistic possibility of
trading profitably again.
The business said tough
retail conditions, including as a result of government policies, were causing
British businesses to "suffer".
Revolution bars owner The
Revel Collective closed 21 venues with the loss of 591 jobs after appointing administrators, who announced
a sale to secure other parts of the business.
FTI Consulting were
brought in as administrators for the pub and bar operator which said it has
struggled against rising costs and weaker consumer spending, particularly among
its younger clientele.
The venues closing
included 14 Revolution bars, six Revolucion de Cuba bars and one Peach Pub.
However, FTI confirmed a pair of deals which will secure the future of 41 sites
and 1,582 jobs.
The Revolution and
Revolucion de Cuba brands and assets were bought by Neos Hospitality Group,
which runs the Barbara's Bier Haus and Bonnie Rogues brands.
The remaining Peach Pubs
business was bought by newly-formed group Coral Pub Company.
US beauty brand
Malin+Goetz put its UK operations into administration, closing all its London stores and making shop
staff redundant. Its UK online operation was set to return under guidance from
the US.
The administration
affected seven branches, including Seven Dials, Soho, Spitalfields, Islington,
Canary Wharf, Battersea Power Station and Borough Yards.
Malin+Goetz's use of
third-party retailers such as Liberty, John Lewis and Space NK, continues via a
partnership with distributor Discovered Brands.
More
UK high street savaged by 9 brands crashing into administration in
January - full list
Everyone wants to
live at the expense of the state. They forget that the state wants to live at
the expense of everyone.
Frederic Bastiat
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Trump’s attempts to kill offshore wind aren’t working
Ella Nilsen, CNN Mon, 2 February 2026 at 10:24 pm GMT
A federal judge on Monday dealt a fifth
blow to the Trump administration’s attempts to kill the offshore wind farms
under construction up and down the east coast.
In December, Trump suspended all five offshore wind projects under construction in federal waters off the
coast of New England, New York and Virginia — grinding construction to a halt.
But since then, developers have had a string of successive wins in court
challenging the move. Wind developers are now 5-0 in court battles with the
administration.
On Monday, Judge Royce Lamberth of the
U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia became the latest to issue a
preliminary injunction allowing the New York-based Sunrise Wind — owned by
Danish energy company Ørsted — to resume construction.
In December, the Trump Interior
Department cited “national security risks identified by the Department of War
in recently completed classified reports” as a justification for the the
suspensions — but didn’t say specifically what those risks were.
Ruling from the bench after a court
hearing on Monday, Lamberth said that was not “a sufficient explanation for the
bureau’s decision to entirely stop work on the Sunrise Wind project.” The judge
stated that “irreparable harm” would happen if the halt continued.
Sunrise Wind is nearly half complete,
with 44 out of 84 total turbine foundations installed. Like other paused
projects, it was losing substantial amounts of money, more than $1 million
every day of the pause, Ørsted said in court filings. In a statement, Ørsted
said the project would “restart impacted activities immediately.”
Court proceedings are ongoing, but each
project has been allowed to proceed after developers said they were at risk of
losing access to specialized construction ships and other key equipment needed
to complete the job. The US Department of Justice declined to comment on
whether it planned to appeal the five preliminary injunctions.
The other wind projects that have been
allowed to continue include Empire Wind, also off the coast of New York;
Revolution Wind off Rhode Island and Connecticut; the nearly-complete Vineyard
Wind off Massachusetts and the massive Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project.
The delays in these projects will almost
certainly inflate their price tags. The Virginia CVOW project, by far the
largest offshore wind farm in the United States, was losing more than $5
million per day while construction was halted in December and January,
according to court filings.
A recent analysis from the Institute for
Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said the administration’s efforts
“could cost consumers billions of dollars and keep much-needed new electricity
off the grid.”
Trump’s attempts to kill offshore wind aren’t working - Yahoo News UK
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
When
plunder becomes a way of life, men create for themselves a legal system that
authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it.
Frederic Bastiat
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