Baltic
Dry Index. 2124 -24
Brent Crude 65.95
Spot Gold 4841 Spot Silver 83.13
US 2 Year Yield 3.57 +0.07
US Federal Debt. 38.688 trillion US GDP 31.120 trillion.
If a government resorts to inflation, that is, creates money in order to cover its budget deficits or expands credit in order to stimulate business, then no power on earth, no gimmick, device, trick or even indexation can prevent its economic consequences.
Henry Hazlitt
Black Monday turned into buy the dip Monday in stocks and precious metals.
Suspicious dinosaur Graeme suspects Friday’s gold and silver crash was scripted to release the big US banks that were trapped in the short side of silver and gold
But the Fed and US Treasury wouldn’t do that, would they?
Japan stocks jump over 3% to record high as Asia
markets rise on U.S.-India trade deal optimism
Published Mon, Feb 2 2026 6:59 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets rose Tuesday after
U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington and India had struck a trade deal
and would immediately begin cutting tariffs on each other’s goods.
Trump added that Indian Prime Minister
Narendra Modi had agreed to step up purchases of U.S. products, according to a
Truth Social post on Monday following a call between the two leaders.
Under the deal, India will also stop its
purchases of Russian crude oil and instead buy more from the U.S., and
potentially, Venezuela, Trump added.
India’s Nifty 50 rose nearly
5% at the open. It was last up 2.73%, while the Sensex index added 2.66%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose more than 3%
to a record high, while the Topix added 2.34%.
South Korea’s Kospi jumped over 5%,
triggering a buy sidecar, which temporarily halts purchase orders. The Korea
Exchange said the trigger occurred after KOSPI 200 futures
climbed more than 5% for over one minute. On Monday, a sidecar was also
activated on the sell side after the Kospi 200 futures dropped as much as
5%.
Meanwhile, the small-cap Kosdaq rose
2.59%.
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index advanced 0.48%,
while the mainland’s CSI 300 was up 0.75%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed
1.3%. Australia’s central bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to
3.85% on Tuesday, marking the Reserve Bank of Australia’s first rate hike since
November 2023 as inflation stays elevated.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s move
matched Reuters estimates and followed data showing inflation was at its highest
level in six quarters.
Senior RBA officials have repeatedly
pushed back against expectations of rate cuts. Earlier this year, Reserve Bank
of Australia Deputy Gov. Andrew Hauser said the likelihood of near-term rate
cuts was “probably very low,” citing persistently high inflation. The central
bank has an inflation target of 2.5%.
Investors will continue monitoring gold
and silver prices following recent volatility which saw silver prices plunge
around 30% last Friday, marking the metal’s worst one-day performance since
1980. Gold also dropped almost 10%.
Spot gold last gained about 2.22% to
$4,769.33 per ounce, while silver added about 3.81% to $82.39 per ounce.
Overnight in the U.S., equities rose as
Wall Street began a new month of trading, with investors looking past the
recent losses in silver and bitcoin.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced
1.05%, closing at 49,407.66, while the S&P 500 was up 0.54% and
settled at 6,976.44. The Nasdaq
Composite also gained 0.56% and ended at 23,592.11.
Asia-Pacific
markets: Nifty 50, Kospi, Nikkei 225, India trade deal
India’s Nifty 50 skyrockets 5% as U.S.-India trade
deal boosts investor sentiment
Published Mon, Feb 2 2026 11:10 PM EST
India’s benchmark Nifty 50 stock index
rose 5% on open Tuesday, after New Delhi and Washington announced a
long-awaited trade deal that saw a sharp cut in U.S. tariffs on Indian exports.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday
stateside said that U.S. will cut reciprocal tariff on India to 18% from 25%.
He added that India will reduce its tariff and non-tariff barriers against the
U.S. to zero.
The U.S. had levied 50% tariffs on India,
including a 25% duty for purchasing Russian oil, but Trump’s announcement only
mentioned cutting “reciprocal” tariffs causing some confusion. Reuters,
however, reported citing sources that the overall tariff had been reduced to
18%.
Trump said that during his call with
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India agreed to stop buying Russian oil
and instead “buy much more” from U.S.
Modi, in his post on X, said that “made in
India” products will now face reduced tariffs of 18% in the U.S. while
extending support for U.S. president’s efforts to usher global peace, stability
and prosperity.
At the beginning of 2025, India was
expected to be among the first countries to sign an agreement with the U.S. and
the lack of an “explicit deal” created a “rift between India’s robust macros
and the weak performance of different asset classes,” Citi Research said in its
report on Tuesday.
The reduction in tariffs has come in
“materially better than consensus expectations,” said Trideep Bhattacharya,
president, equities, at Edelweiss Asset Management.
“When combined with the recently concluded
India–EU trade agreement, this potentially represents one of the strongest
external growth stimuli for the Indian economy in 2026,” she added.
The Nifty pared some gains and was last
trading about 4% higher, putting it on course for its best day in nearly six
years, if gains hold.
More
India's
Nifty 50 skyrockets 5% as U.S.-India trade deal boosts investor sentiment
Gold and silver rebound after historic wipeout as
analysts say thematic drivers stay intact
Published Mon, Feb 2 2026 10:01 PM EST
Gold and silver prices rebounded on
Tuesday after suffering a historic sell-off, with analysts suggesting that the
recent corrections were more a positioning reset than a sustained downturn.
Gold prices clawed back ground after
falling on Monday and plunging nearly 10% on Friday — steepest single-day
declines in decades. Silver also recovered modestly after a roughly 30%
collapse that marked its worst one-day performance since 1980.
Spot
gold jumped as much as 4% on Tuesday, and was last trading over 2%
higher at $4,771.76 per ounce. Gold
futures in New York were last up 3%, hovering at around $4,791.
Spot
silver advanced as much as 7.8%, and was last trading 2.6% higher at
$81.3 per ounce on Tuesday. Silver
futures in New York were up 7% at $82.67 per ounce.
The rebound came as investors reassessed
whether the rout signaled a structural turning point or an exaggerated reaction
to short-term catalysts.
Strategists at Deutsche Bank said history
suggests it is short-term catalysts, even as the scale of the sell-off has
raised fresh questions about market positioning. The bank said that while signs
of elevated speculative activity have been building for months, they are
insufficient on their own to explain the magnitude of last week’s move.
“The adjustment in precious metal prices
overshot the significance of its ostensible catalysts. Moreover, investor
intentions in precious (official, institutional, individual) have not likely
changed for the worse.”
The sell-off was triggered by a
combination of factors, including a rebound in the U.S. dollar, shifts in
expectations around Federal Reserve leadership following President Donald
Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, and position-trimming
ahead of the weekend.
Deutsche Bank said the broader investment
case for gold and silver remains intact.
“Gold’s thematic drivers remain positive
and we believe investors’ rationale for gold (and precious) allocations will
not have changed. The conditions do not appear primed for a sustained reversal
in gold prices, and we draw some contrasts between today’s circumstance and the
context for gold’s weakness in the 1980s and 2013.”
Barclays struck a similar tone,
acknowledging overheated technicals and stretched positioning, but said that
the broader “bid” for gold can remain resilient amid geopolitical and policy
uncertainties and reserve-diversification themes.
Silver’s whipsaw has been more dramatic,
reflecting its smaller market, higher volatility and heavier retail
participation. However, some analysts still maintain a bullish case for the
white metal.
“Speculative positioning has definitely
played a role in the short term. Silver has attracted more retail participation
than gold and that makes it that much more sensitive to fast-moving sentiment
and short-term trading,” said Zavier Wong, market analyst at eToro.
Wong, however, added it may be “too
simplistic” to attribute the entire move to speculation. Silver has genuine
industrial demand, particularly tied to areas linked to data centers and AI
infrastructure.
A study published in January projected that global
silver demand will surge this decade, driven largely by solar photovoltaics and
the shift to more silver-intensive cell technologies. Total demand is forecast
to reach 48,000 tonnes to 54,000 tonnes a year by 2030, while supply is
expected to rise only to about 34,000 tonnes, meaning just 62%-70% of demand
would be met.
The solar sector alone is seen consuming
10,000-14,000 tonnes annually, or up to 41% of global supply.
“That demand hasn’t gone away. What we’re
seeing here is silver running ahead of itself, which is something it has always
done during strong phases,” said Wong.
Gold
and silver rebound after historic wipeout as analysts say thematic drivers stay
intact
In other news.
India and US Make a Deal on Trump’s Tariffs
February 2, 2026 at 11:10 PM GMT
Prime Minister Narendra Modi confirmed
part of an agreement posted on social media by Donald Trump in which the US
president said
he will lower US tariffs on Indian goods to 18%.
The new figure—which mean tariffs for
many Indian goods will drop from 50%—offers significant relief for New
Delhi, which has sought for months to negotiate a lower rate with Washington.
Trump said India agreed to stop buying Russian oil as part of the accord, but
Modi didn’t confirm that term. Trump made a similar
claim in October, but Indian refiners continued to buy crude from
Moscow.
India ships almost a fifth of
its total exports to the US and Trump’s tariffs amounted to the highest rate on
products from any major trading partner. The bulk of Trump’s global tariffs,
however, have been ruled illegal by a US federal appeals court, which stayed
its ruling pending a decision by the US Supreme Court. That ruling could
come as soon as this month. —Natasha
Solo-Lyons and David
E. Rovella
What You Need to Know Today
China banned concealed door handles on electric vehicles, the first
country in the world to outlaw a design popularized by Tesla that is now facing
global regulatory scrutiny due to a spate of deadly incidents.
Cars sold in China will be required to
have mechanical release both on the inside and outside, according to new safety
rules issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on Monday.
The ruling will take effect on Jan. 1, 2027, the ministry said. Models that
have already been approved by the regulator and are in the final stages of
launching in China have until January 2029 to change their designs.
The news follows several high-profile
incidents, including two fiery Xiaomi Corp. EV crashes in China where power failures were suspected
to have prevented doors from opening, leaving people—unable to escape or be
rescued–to die.
While the new regulations will only impact
EVs sold in China, the country’s influence on the global automotive industry
means it could resonate elsewhere. Tesla’s doors are already the target of a safety probe in the US, while
European regulators are looking to impose rules of their own.
India and US Make a Deal on Trump’s Tariffs: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
China’s factory activity grows at fastest pace
since October, private survey shows, beating official reading
Published Sun, Feb 1 2026 8:56 PM EST
China’s factory activity gathered speed in
January, according to a private survey released Monday, as manufacturers
accelerated production and front-loaded shipments ahead of the extended Lunar
New Year holiday.
The seasonally-adjusted RatingDog China
General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 50.3 in January
from 50.1 the previous month, in line with analysts’ expectations of 50.3 in a
Reuters poll. A reading above the 50 benchmark indicates an expansion, while
one below that suggests contraction.
That marked the strongest level since
October, when the private survey came in at
50.6.
Production accelerated last month as new
orders picked up both at home and abroad, prompting firms to hire additional
staff to cope with rising workloads and clear outstanding orders.
Total new orders expanded for the eighth
straight month while new export orders rebounded, primarily buoyed by increased
demand from overseas buyers, particularly Southeast Asia.
Business confidence, however, slipped to a
nine-month low, as firms worried about rising costs, the private survey showed.
Corporate expenses expanded at the fastest rate in four months, pushing
factory-gate prices up for the first time since November 2024.
Metal prices, in particular, surged during
the latest survey period, sending input cost inflation to its highest level
since last September, the survey showed.
“Looking ahead, if cost pressures persist
while demand recovery is limited, profit margins will remain under pressure,”
said Yao Yu, founder of credit research firm RatingDog.
Subdued confidence among Chinese
manufacturers could further hurt demand in the upcoming months, said Jingyi
Pan, an associate director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noting that
the rise in geopolitical instability at the start of this year may have
prompted firms to front-load their production.
The reading was better than an official
survey released
on Saturday, which showed manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in
January, coming in at 49.3, compared with 50.1 in the previous month, according
to the National Bureau of Statistics.
The RatingDog private survey, which
samples a smaller group of export-oriented manufacturers, has typically painted
a brighter picture than the official polls that cover a broader range of firms.
National Bureau of Statistics officials
attributed the slump to a seasonal slowdown and softer global demand. Local
media reported that some factories
halted production last
month to allow their workers to return home ahead of the upcoming Lunar New
Year.
This year’s Lunar New Year holiday has
been extended to nine days for the first time, stretching from Feb. 15 to Feb.
23, as Beijing aims to boost domestic spending on travel, tourism, dine-out
services and leisure activities during the holiday.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
UK’s first
rapid-charging battery train ready for boarding this weekend
Great
Western Railway service recharges in three and a half minutes between trips on
west London line
Fri 30 Jan 2026 05.00 GMT
The UK’s first superfast-charging train
running only on battery power will come into passenger service this weekend –
operating a five-mile return route in west London.
Great Western Railway (GWR) will send
the converted London Underground train out from 5.30am to cover the full
Saturday timetable on the West Ealing to Greenford branch line, four stops and
12 minutes each way, and now carrying up to 273 passengers, should its
celebrity stoke up the demand.
The battery will recharge in just three
and a half minutes back at West Ealing station between trips, using a 2,000kW
charger connected to a few metres of rail that only becomes live when the train
stops directly overhead.
There are hopes within government and
industry that this technology could one day replace diesel trains on routes
that have proved difficult or expensive to electrify with overhead wires, as
the decarbonisation of rail continues.
The train has proved itself capable of
going more than 200 miles on a single charge – last year setting a world record
for the farthest travelled by a battery-electric train, smashing a German
record set in 2021.
The GWR train and the fast-charge
technology has been trialled on the 2.5-mile line since early 2024, but has not
yet carried paying passengers.
GWR’s engineering director, Simon Green,
said: “This is a significant moment for all those involved in this innovative
project and comes at a crucial time as we focus on plans to replace our ageing
diesel fleet.
“Our fast-charge trial has successfully
demonstrated that battery technology offers a reliable and efficient
alternative to power electric trains, in cases where overhead lines aren’t
possible or desirable.”
Network Rail’s western route director,
Marcus Jones, whose teams installed the fast-charge infrastructure, said the
trial had shown “how promising this technology is and today marks another
important milestone for the industry”.
“Rail is already the greenest form of
public transport, and battery‑powered trains will play a crucial role in our
commitment to a low‑emission railway and ambition to reach net‑zero by 2050,”
he said.
Hybrid battery-electric trains, running
on battery where power lines are not available, are already established in
Japan and elsewhere. Merseyrail also has trains running a short distance on
batteries, but primarily powered and recharging from a third rail.
However, the rapid charging technology
used in the new GWR service means trains can be built using batteries alone,
which are safer for the public than using a high-voltage third rail, and have
less impact on local electricity grids.
The electrification of the Great Western
mainline was ended in 2020, curtailed due to its enormous cost overruns. GWR believes the technology could now allow it to
switch away from diesel on much longer routes in south-west England.
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
When Alexander the Great visited the philosopher Diogenes and
asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied:
‘Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.’ It is what every citizen is
entitled to ask of his government.
Henry Hazlitt
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