Baltic
Dry Index. 1936 -19
Brent Crude 68.12
Spot Gold 4875 Spot Silver 73.00
US 2 Year Yield 3.47 -0.10
US Federal Debt. 38.700 trillion US GDP 31.129 trillion.
If socialists understood economics, they wouldn't be socialist.
Friedrich August von Hayek
As the winter Olympics open in Italy today, will it be Black Friday in stocks, crypto and silver? Which of the three will win the gold for the biggest decline or rebound?
By my back of the envelope reckoning, US stocks, silver and cryptocurrencies have destroyed about $20 trillion in notional paper wealth. Globally, probably about double that.
But how much of the notional losses have become realised losses and where are they hiding?
A reverse wealth effect is about to hit America, Europe and Japan, which is holding an iffy General Election tomorrow.
Germany is already leading the rump EU into recession. Canada is flirting with recession as is GB thanks to GB’s incompetent socialist government.
If the US unemployment rate starts rising next week, a reverse wealth effect in the US economy will start showing up in Q1 26.
Dow tumbles nearly 600 points, S&P 500 goes
negative for 2026 in tech sector rout: Live updates
Updated Thu, Feb 5 2026 4:14 PM EST
U.S. equities fell for another session on
Thursday as investors took a risk-off stance, leading popular trades in
technology and bitcoin to unravel.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed about
592.58 points, or 1.20%, ending at 48,908.72. The S&P 500 lost 1.23%,
closing at 6,798.40 and landing in negative territory for the year. The Nasdaq Composite declined
1.59% and settled at 22,540.59. The 30-stock Dow was down nearly 700 points, or
about 1.4%, at session lows, while the broad market S&P 500 and Nasdaq
dropped 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively.
Alphabet was the latest of the
“Magnificent Seven” companies to report earnings results. The company projected
a sharp increase in
artificial intelligence spending that spooked some investors, calling
for 2026 capital expenditures of up to $185 billion. Shares lost 0.5%. However,
shares of Broadcom climbed
almost 1% following news of Alphabet’s spending plans, offering some hope for
the artificial intelligence trade as the market deciphers its winners and
losers.
“The fact that some of these companies do
release and they announce just additional capex spending — and it is
astronomical at this point — we’re actually viewing that as a positive sign for
the market’s health in general, because ... it’s more that the market is
discerning at this point rather than just irrational exuberance,” said Stephen
Tuckwood, director of investments at Modern Wealth Management.
Alongside Alphabet, Qualcomm came under pressure, sliding
more than 8% after posting a weaker-than-expected
forecast because
of a global memory shortage.
Elsewhere, the sell-off in the
cryptocurrency market continued to gain steam, as bitcoin fell below
$64,000 after
earlier sinking under the $70,000 threshold — which is considered a key support
level. In the precious metals space, pressure on silver resumed. The metal’s
prices snapped a two-day
rebound and
dropped as much as 16%. It had plummeted nearly 30% last Friday.
Bad news for the labor market
Adding to the downbeat sentiment, concerns
surrounding labor market weakness grew after outplacement firm Challenger, Gray
& Christmas reported that U.S. employers announced 108,435
layoffs in
January, marking the highest January total since the global financial crisis.
On top of that, initial jobless claims for
the week ended Jan. 31 rose more than
expected,
and job openings in December fell to their lowest level since
September 2020.
This comes ahead of next week’s release of
the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ January jobs
report,
which was pushed back as a result of the partial government shutdown that ended Tuesday.
“It feels like we’re shifting out of this
no-hire, no-fire period that we’ve been in for the past several months,”
Tuckwood said, adding that the upcoming BLS jobs report “could likely confirm
what we’re seeing here with the others, where the firing and layoffs pieces is
starting to turn negative.”
If that turns out to be the case, he
believes that the Federal Reserve will deliver an interest rate cut at the end
of at least one of its March or April meetings.
Wall Street is coming off a turbulent trading
session,
which saw a sell-off software
and chip stocks that
drove the S&P 500 to a second straight day of losses. Those stocks were
pummeled as fears of AI disruption in the industry had investors rotating out
of tech en masse and into other more attractively valued parts of the market.
The sell-off on software stocks,
which entered a bear
market last
week, could be getting ahead of itself, Tuckwood told CNBC. He said, “We’re not
quite there yet in terms of wanting to avoid catching a falling knife, but at
some point for that particular subsector, there’s going to be an opportunity
once things do get a bit too overdone there on the sell side.”
Stock market news
for Feb. 5, 2026
Silver’s volatility has exceeded 100%. Where
exactly is the bottom?
Published Thu, Feb 5 2026 11:42 PM EST
Silver’s recent dizzying plunge and
erratic trading this week have left investors wondering: Where and when is the
bottom?
Spot
silver prices slid as much as 10% on Thursday before paring losses to
rise above 2% to $73 per ounce as of 11.30 p.m. ET. Silver futures in New York
were down over 5% at $72.34 per ounce.
Prices of the white metal surged to a
record high this year before plunging almost 30% last Friday. Since then, it
has struggled to regain footing, rebounding on Tuesday and Wednesday before
plunging 19% again on Thursday.
Strategists at UBS noted the recent plunge
appeared driven more by a broader risk-off move than a collapse in
fundamentals, but warned that extreme volatility makes near-term positioning
risky.
“Since one-month volatility in silver now
exceeds 100%, significant price swings are likely in the near term,” the bank
said in a note published late Thursday. UBS added that silver could struggle to
remain above $85 an ounce without sustained investment demand.
Since the start of the year, silver has
recorded 11 moves of 5% or more in either direction, data from LSEG showed.
“In light of these factors and the current
extreme volatility, we do not find long-term exposure to silver at present
levels attractive,” the bank’s strategists said.
However, UBS believes that longer-term
fundamentals remain intact.
“Lower nominal and real interest rates,
global debt concerns and USD debasement considerations, and our expectation for
global economic growth to recover in 2026 should drive up prices.”
The bank continues to estimate a market
deficit of nearly 300 million ounces this year, with investment demand expected
to surpass 400 million ounces, while warning that elevated prices could curb
industrial usage.
The sharp rise in option prices has
created opportunities for investors to generate income by positioning for a
price floor, rather than betting on further gains.
With one-month volatility near 80%, UBS
said strategies that benefit from silver staying above about $65 an
ounce appear more appealing in the near term, effectively
reflecting a view that, while prices may remain choppy, a deep collapse below
that level is unlikely in the immediate future.
Nicky Shiels, head of research at MKS
Pamp, said silver’s recent behavior bears little resemblance to past bull
markets driven by physical supply constraints.
“Silver is certainly being labeled as
a meme
stock or commodity given its outsized volatility,” Shiels said, adding
that while silver is not cheap in absolute terms, expanded retail access has
amplified speculative flows.
She expects silver to spend the coming
weeks digesting the excesses of the rally rather than staging an immediate
rebound, and could go as low as $60 per ounce.
More
Silver's
volatility has exceeded 100%. Where exactly is the bottom?
Bitcoin drops 15%, briefly breaking below $61,000
as sell-off intensifies, doubts about crypto grow
Published Thu, Feb 5 2026 6:43 AM EST
Bitcoin briefly sank below $61,000 on
Thursday evening as investor confidence continued to falter in the asset once
hailed as “digital gold” and a unique store of value.
At one point, the token slid to
$60,062.00, as the crypto sell-off intensified in overnight trading. Bitcoin
was last down about 15% at 7:37 p.m. ET, trading at $62,448.00.
Digital assets, including bitcoin, have
fallen deeper into the red as investors re-assess the practical utility of a
token that has been championed not only as a hedge against inflation and
macroeconomic uncertainties but also as an alternative to fiat currencies and
traditional safe-havens such as gold.
That hasn’t panned out lately, since
bitcoin peaked just north of $126,000 in early October.
The cryptocurrency broke below the key
level of $70,000 earlier in the session Thursday and then the selling
increased, bringing the asset closer in line with its pre-election level. The
cryptocurrency is down almost 30% this week alone.
“This steady selling in our view signals
that traditional investors are losing interest, and overall pessimism about
crypto is growing,” Deutsche Bank analyst Marion Laboure said Wednesday in a
note to clients.
Growing investor caution comes as many of
the sensationalized claims about bitcoin have failed to materialize. The token
has largely traded in the same direction as other risk-on assets, such as
stocks, particularly during recent geopolitical and macroeconomic flare ups in
Venezuela, the Middle East and Europe, and its adoption as a form of payment
for goods and services has been minimal.
Bitcoin underperforming gold
Bitcoin is down nearly 40% over the past
year, while gold futures have gained 61% in the same period.
Other cryptocurrencies are cratering, too.
Ether has pulled back 33% this week. Solana hit $88.42 on Thursday, about a
two-year low. That cryptocurrency is off nearly 40% on the week.
Some traders have suggested $70,000 is a key
level to
watch for bitcoin, and a break below that could trigger further declines.
James Butterfill, head of research at
Coinshares, said $70,000 is shaping up as a “key psychological level,” adding
that “if we fail to hold it, a move toward” the $60,000 to $65,000 range
“becomes quite likely.”
The latest move in bitcoin comes amid
a worsening sell-off
in U.S. tech stocks.
The State Street
Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) dropped 1.8% on Thursday, marking
its third straight losing day.
Meanwhile, precious metals continue to be
volatile too, with
silver plunging again on Thursday and gold under pressure.
Forced liquidations — when traders’
positions are automatically sold as bitcoin hits a set price — continue to
weigh on markets. As of Thursday, more than $2 billion in long and short
positions in cryptocurrencies have been liquidated this week, according to data
from Coinglass.
More
Bitcoin briefly
breaks below $61,000 as sell-off intensifies
Sweden’s Volvo Cars fell over 22% in its worst
trading day ever. Here’s why
Published Thu, Feb 5 2026 3:33 AM EST Updated
Thu, Feb 5 2026 12:05 PM EST
Shares of Sweden’s Volvo Cars tumbled more
than 22.5% on Thursday, with the company recording its worst trading day ever.
The automaker, which is owned by China’s
Geely Holding, posted a
substantial drop in fourth-quarter operating profit, citing the impact of U.S.
tariffs, negative currency effects and weak demand, before Thursday’s opening
bell.
Volvo Cars said fourth-quarter operating
income excluding items affecting comparability came in at 1.8 billion Swedish
krona ($200.46 million), reflecting a 68% drop compared to the same period a
year prior.
“We have a very challenging market,
especially in China, very tough competition. All of our European colleagues
have the same problem,” Volvo Cars CEO Hakan Samuelsson told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on Thursday.
He added the discontinuation of EV
incentives in the U.S. and China were also contributing to “a very challenging
external environment.”
More
Volvo Cars suffers
worst trading day ever as Q4 profit falls
Peloton shares plunge 26% on weak holiday quarter,
sluggish demand for splashy new products
Published Thu, Feb 5 2026 7:10 AM EST
Peloton posted a worse-than-expected
holiday quarter on Thursday after shoppers failed to shell out for its new AI-driven
product line and
turned away from higher subscription prices, sending shares down 26%.
The connected fitness company missed Wall
Street’s estimates on the top and bottom lines and fell short of its own
internal sales targets in the three months ended Dec. 31 – typically the
strongest for Peloton’s hardware revenue.
The company said it expects sluggish sales
to continue in the current quarter. Peloton forecasts revenue between $605
million and $625 million, below expectations of $638 million, according to
LSEG.
The weak results, coupled with soft
guidance, are the first clues investors have that Peloton’s product overhaul
may not be the sales driver the company hoped it would be.
The revamped assortment, which came with
artificial intelligence-powered tracking cameras, speakers, 360-degree swivel
screens and hands-free control, was designed to grow sales and bring in new
customers. But Peloton’s results show demand has been sluggish.
More
Peloton (PTON)
earnings Q2 2026
Oil giant Shell misses fourth-quarter profit
estimates as crude prices slide
Published Thu, Feb 5 2026 2:05 AM EST
British oil major Shell on Thursday reported
weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter profit amid lower crude prices.
Shell posted adjusted earnings of $3.26
billion for the quarter, missing analyst expectations of $3.53 billion,
according to an LSEG-compiled consensus. A separate, company-provided analyst
forecast had
put Shell’s expected fourth-quarter profit at $3.51 billion.
The London-headquartered firm reported
profit of $3.66 billion over the
same period last year and $5.4 billion in the
July-September period.
For the full-year 2025, Shell posted
weaker-than-expected adjusted earnings of $18.5 billion, compared to annual
profit of $23.72 billion a year
earlier.
“2025 was a year of accelerated momentum,
with strong operational and financial performance across Shell,” Shell CEO Wael
Sawan said in a statement.
The company announced a 4% increase in its
dividend to $0.372 per share and a $3.5 billion share buyback program, a move
that marks the 17th consecutive quarter of $3 billion or more in buybacks.
Net debt came in at $45.7 billion at the
end of last year, with gearing at 20.7%. This reflects an increase from net
debt of $41.2 billion and gearing of 18.8% at the end of the third quarter.
The results come as lower oil prices force
European energy majors to confront some tough choices.
A challenging market environment, along
with expectations for a particularly weak earnings season, had been expected to
put the industry’s shareholder payouts at risk.
Norway’s Equinor was the first mover in this
sense. The state-backed energy company announced hefty cuts
to share buybacks on Wednesday after posting a 22% drop in fourth-quarter
profit.
Equinor said it would reduce share
buybacks to $1.5 billion this year, down from $5 billion last year, while also
trimming investments in its renewables and low-emission energy projects.
Britain’s BP and France’s TotalEnergies are both
scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings next week.
Oil giant Shell
misses profit estimates as crude prices slide
In other news.
U.S. asks American citizens to ‘leave Iran now’
ahead of high-stakes talks with Tehran
Published Thu, Feb 5 2026 10:53 PM EST
The U.S. Virtual Embassy in Iran issued a
security alert early Friday urging American citizens to “leave
Iran now” and prepare departure plans that don’t rely on U.S. government
assistance.
The notice comes ahead of U.S. and Iran’s
scheduled talks in Oman on Friday, with little indication that the two sides
have found common ground over the agenda of the meeting.
U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared
Kushner, U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, were due to take part in the
meeting with a team led by Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, according to
American and Iranian officials.
More
U.S.
asks American citizens to 'leave Iran now' ahead of high-stakes talks with
Tehran
U.S. proposes critical minerals trade bloc aimed at countering China’s grip
Published Thu, Feb 5 2026 12:34 AM EST
The U.S. on Wednesday unveiled new
initiatives to mobilize allies into a preferential trade bloc for critical
minerals, including coordinated price floors as Washington works to counter
China’s dominance in the market vital for technology and defense.
The plans were discussed at a “Critical
Minerals Ministerial” in Washington this week that included representatives
from 54 countries, the European Union and senior Trump administration
officials.
Following the event, Washington announced
that it had signed bilateral critical minerals agreements with 11 countries,
building on 10 similar pacts inked over the past five months. Negotiations were
also completed with an additional 17 nations.
The goals of the agreements are to address
pricing challenges, spur development, create fairer markets, and expand access
to financing in the critical minerals sector.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who hosted
the Ministerial, also announced the
formation of the “Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE),” on
Wednesday, a partnership to coordinate critical mineral policy and projects.
“We have a number of countries that have
signed on to that, and many more that we hope will do so... the purpose of
FORGE is to foster collaboration and to build a network of partners across the
world,” Rubio said.
FORGE will complement an earlier effort
between the U.S. and nine partners, known as “Pax Silica.” While Pax Silica
centers on safeguarding AI-related supply chains, FORGE is designed as a
broader platform to coordinate critical mineral policy, pricing and project
development.
Rubio warned of risks tied to the
concentration of critical minerals in “one country,” in an apparent reference
to China, including geopolitical leverage and potential disruptions from
pandemics or instability.
In recent years, Beijing has wielded its
market dominance in the mining and refining of most critical minerals as a
geopolitical tool, selectively restricting exports.
Rubio also criticized “unfair practices”
such as state subsidies that have undercut competitors, making projects
economically unviable.
In separate remarks, Vice President JD
Vance said the U.S. aims “to eliminate that problem of people flooding into our
markets with cheap critical minerals to undercut our domestic manufacturers.”
“We will establish reference prices for
critical minerals at each stage of production,” Vance said. “For members of the
preferential zone, these reference prices will operate as a floor maintained
through adjustable tariffs to uphold pricing integrity.”
The developments come amid broader efforts
by the Trump Administration to build stronger critical mineral supply
chains.
On Monday, President Donald Trump unveiled Project
Vault,
a $12 billion reserve backed by $10 billion from the U.S. Export-Import Bank
and $2 billion in private funds, to stabilize prices and support manufacturers.
The stockpile will include critical minerals such as rare earths, lithium and
copper.
U.S. proposes
critical minerals trade bloc aimed at countering China’s grip
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Worst
January for US Jobs Since the Great Recession
February
5, 2026 at 11:12 PM GMT
US
companies announced the largest number of job cuts for any January since the
depths of the Great Recession in 2009, according to data from outplacement
firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Companies
last month announced 108,435 job cuts, a 118% increase from a year earlier. The
report on Thursday also showed hiring intentions slid 13% from a year earlier
to 5,306—marking the weakest total for any January in the firm’s records back
17 years.
“Generally,
we see a high number of job cuts in the first quarter, but this is a high total
for January,” said Andy Challenger, the company’s chief revenue officer. “It
means most of these plans were set at the end of 2025, signaling employers are
less-than-optimistic about the outlook for 2026.”
Almost
half of the job cuts announced in January were tied to three companies—Amazon,
United Parcel Service and Dow. Amazon announced plans to cut 16,000
corporate positions while UPS said it would shed as many as 30,000. Chemical
maker Dow intends to eliminate about 4,500 positions, while Peloton
Interactive and Nike also announced mass dismissals.
Worst
January for US Jobs Since 2009: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
How
a sharp US dollar crash could trigger global recession – here's what BofA is
warning
February
4, 2026
US
Dollar crash global recession risk: Concerns over a weakening US dollar are
growing, with BofA Securities warning that a sharp and sustained decline could
have serious consequences for the global economy outside the United States.
BofA
Warns Sharp US Dollar Fall Could Hit Global Economy
According
to the analysis highlighted in the report, a significantly weaker dollar would
likely weigh on growth across non-US economies. Slower growth abroad could
generate deflationary pressures, prompting central banks in other countries to
respond with monetary policy easing, as per a report. Those policy moves, the
report noted, would ultimately act as a constraint on how far the dollar could
fall, creating a natural limit to further depreciation, as per an ANI report.
Also
read: What
is Anthropic’s new legal AI tool and why investors are dumping software stocks
Weaker
Dollar Seen as Recessionary Shock Outside the US
BofA
cautioned that a large real drop in the dollar against other major currencies
would function as a recessionary shock for the global economy ex-US. While a
few economies with strong momentum might be able to withstand the impact, most
developed economies would face meaningful strain.
Also
read: Word
of the day: Promenade
US
Dollar Slide Poses Risk to Global Financial Stability
The
report also emphasized that an abrupt or disorderly decline in the dollar would
not serve anyone’s interests. Both the US and the rest of the world rely on
stable currency movements, and a sudden loss of confidence in the dollar could
disrupt global trade, investment activity, and financial markets.
Dollar
Weakens Despite Stable US Interest Rates
Another
key observation in the analysis was the recent shift in the relationship
between the dollar and US interest rates. The dollar has weakened even as US
rates have remained broadly stable in the 4.00–4.50% range, while stock markets
have continued to hit new highs despite bouts of volatility. This divergence
suggests the dollar may be losing some of its traditional role as a safe haven
and hedging tool amid US-specific policy risks.
BofA
Pushes Back on Fears of a Dollar Collapse
Despite
these concerns, the report pushed back against claims of an imminent dollar
collapse. BofA said such narratives are overstated, pointing to the US
economy’s strong growth and productivity advantages compared with other
advanced economies, as per the ANI report. Those fundamentals have supported
the dollar for years and enabled the US to finance large fiscal and current
account deficits.
How a sharp US dollar crash could trigger global recession – here's what
BofA is warning
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Approx. 2 minutes.
Sydney's mega-battery rollout to power energy transition | 7NEWS
Sydney's mega-battery rollout to power energy transition | 7NEWS
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Another weekend and with US v Iran talks due today,
will President Trump launch a bombing attack this weekend if today’s talks fail?
Have a great weekend everyone.
The history of
government management of money has, except for a few short happy periods, been
one of incessant fraud and deception.
Friedrich August von Hayek
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