Baltic Dry Index. 2633 Wed. Brent Crude 119.72
Spot Gold 1851
"People never lie so much as after a hunt, during a war, or before an election."
Count Otto Von Bismarck.
Look away from the oil price now.
Investors, speculators, gamblers, but I repeat myself, have to face the Great Inflation Puzzle. Has inflation become entrenched? Stuctural?
Have the massed ranks of lying central banksters blown it?
Have they debased the fiat currencies by all the trillions of new fiat money poured into the global economy since the discovery of the Magic Money Tree forests in March 2020?
More and more, with each passing month it looks like they have.
Have we turned the global economy into Zimbabwe lite?
If we
have, get used to a world traveling along with annual inflation rates of 5 to 10
percent, if we’re lucky. 10 to 20 percent if we’re unlucky. Interest rates several percent higher,
Time to add to fully paid up gold and silver holdings, held outside of the larcenous reach of the politicians and bent banksters.
In mid 2022, suddenly this new bout of inflation seems to be settling in.
Wall St Week Ahead: U.S. stock market rebound faces key inflation test
June 3, 2022 11:02 PM GMT+1
NEW YORK, June 3 (Reuters) - A rally that lifted U.S. stocks from the brink of a bear market faces an important test next week, when consumer price data offers insight on how much more the Federal Reserve will need to do in its battle against the worst inflation in decades.
Despite a rocky week, the S&P 500 (.SPX) is still up over 5% from last month's lows, which saw the benchmark index extend its decline to nearly 20% from its all-time high. The index was recently down about 14% from its Jan. 3 record after losing 1% in the past week.
More upside could depend on whether investors believe policymakers are making progress against surging prices. Signs that inflation remains strong may bolster the case for even more aggressive monetary tightening, potentially spooking a market already battered by worries that a hawkish Fed could deal a serious blow to U.S. growth. read more
----The consumer price index (CPI) for the 12 months through April rose 8.3%, down from an 8.5% annual rate reported in the prior month, which was the largest year-on-year gain in 40 years. Friday's inflation report for May is one of the last key pieces of data before the Fed's June 14-15 meeting, at which the central bank is widely expected to raise rates by another 50 basis points.
If inflation is "continuing to be a problem, the Fed may not have the option of coasting later this year," said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management, adding, "The higher the interest rates, the more the struggle for the market."
Nolte has lightened positions in equities broadly in the portfolios he manages, especially in growth stocks, and raised cash levels, pointing to factors such as still-lofty stock valuations.
The CPI report comes as investors gauge how the 75 basis points of monetary tightening already delivered by the Fed this year is affecting growth. Employment data released Friday showed that U.S. employers hired more workers than expected in May and maintained a strong pace of wage increases, signs of strength that could keep the Fed on an aggressive monetary policy tightening path. read more
Meanwhile, gloomy views from several top business leaders, including JPMorgan Chase's (JPM.N) Jamie Dimon and Tesla's (TSLA.O) Elon Musk, have weighed on hopes that the central bank can cool inflation without hurting the economy. Musk said in an email to executives that he has a “super bad feeling” about the economy and needs to cut about 10% of jobs at the electric carmaker, Reuters reported Friday. L1N2XQ0PI read more
Investors' view of inflation is critical to how they value equities, as higher prices have typically spurred the Fed to raise interest rates, with higher bond yields in turn reducing the value of future corporate profits. Rising prices also raise costs for businesses and consumers.
The S&P 500 trades at around 18.7 times its trailing 12 month earnings, a rich valuation compared to other inflationary periods that suggests investors believe the current level of price increases may not last, according to Jeff Buchbinder, equity strategist at LPL Financial.
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European stocks close lower after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data; Faurecia slides 6%
LONDON — European markets closed lower on Friday, with traders digesting fresh economic data from the U.S.
The German DAX closed down 0.2%, the French CAC fell 0.3% and the Italian FTSE MIB was down 1.1%. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was closed on Friday for the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee celebrations.
New data out Friday showed the U.S. economy added 390,000 jobs in May, better than expected despite fears of an economic slowdown and with a roaring pace of inflation.
U.S. stocks slid Friday as investors digested the report and the potential for rising interest rates. European markets also dipped after the data, hitting lows for the session.
Russia’s onslaught in Ukraine was also front and center, as well as the recent EU announcement of a partial ban on Russian oil imports. OPEC and its oil-producing allies agreed on Thursday to hike output in July and August by a larger-than-expected amount as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine wreaks havoc on global energy markets.
In individual stocks news, Danish bank Ringkjoebing Landbobank saw its shares climb 4.2% after raising its expectations for this year.
Car parts maker Faurecia fell 6.7% after announcing it had launched a capital increase to pay for its acquisition of rival Hella.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/03/european-markets-us-jobs-data-in-focus.html
Gasoline futures end at a record as oil shakes off OPEC+ output increase
Last Updated: June 3, 2022 at 3:06 p.m. ET
Gasoline futures extended a run into record territory Friday, while oil futures logged strong weekly gains a day after traders shook off a decision by OPEC+ to raise output by larger increments in July and August.
Price action
- West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery CL.1, +2.90% CL00, +2.90% CLN22, +2.90% finished $2 higher, up 1.7%, at $118.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rising 3.3% for the week.
- August Brent crude BRN00, +1.14% BRNQ22, +1.14%, the global benchmark, gained $2.11, or 1.8%, to settle at $119.72 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, leaving it with a 3.6% weekly advance.
- Back on Nymex, July gasoline RBN22, +2.80% rose 1.5% to end at a record $4.2522 a gallon, contributing to an 8.7% weekly gain. July heating oil HON22, +2.97% jumped 1.7% to $4.2803 a gallon, for a weekly rise of 9.6%.
- July natural gas NGN22, +0.64% gained 0.5% to end at $8.523 per million British thermal units, but fell 2.3% for the week.
Market drivers
Oil has been supported this week by China’s moves to ease a weekslong lockdown in Shanghai, a positive for crude demand. Meanwhile, government data on Thursday showed U.S. oil and product inventories fell sharply last week, reflecting in part strong implied demand for gasoline as summer driving season got under way.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, agreed Thursday to raise output by 638,000 barrels a day in July and August, exceeding the 432,000 barrel-a-day increments previously penciled in by the group.
While the move could help fill the gap left by Russian crude exports targeted by embargoes and sanctions in response to the country’s invasion of Ukraine, it isn’t seen as enough to fully offset the expected lost barrels, analysts noted. Moreover, they noted that OPEC+ has already fallen short on previous, smaller production boosts.
Oil wasn’t pressured in the aftermath of the move “because OPEC+ merely packed the production hikes intended for the coming three months into the next two. In other words, more oil will be available to the market only in the short term, if at all,” said Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, in a note.
Also, Russia remains a fully fledged OPEC+ member, despite media reports ahead of the meeting that said some members were contemplating suspending the country’s participation in the pact.
More
Russia limits exports of noble gases, a key ingredient for making chips
June 3, 2022 3:36 PM GMT+1
Sanctions-hit Russia has limited exports of noble gases such as neon, a key ingredient for making chips, until the end of 2022 to strengthen its market position, its trade ministry said on Thursday.
Russia's export curbs could worsen the supply crunch in the global chips market. Ukraine was one of the world's largest suppliers of noble gases until it suspended production at its plants in the cities of Mariupol and Odesa in March.
Exports of noble gases, which Russia used to supply to Japan and other countries, will be allowed only with special state permission until Dec. 31, the Russian government said on May 30.
The move will provide an opportunity to "rearrange those chains that have now been broken and build new ones," Deputy Trade Minister Vasily Shpak told Reuters via the ministry's press service on Thursday.
Russia accounts for 30% of the global supply of three noble gases - neon, krypton and xenon, according to the ministry's estimate.
Taiwan, the world's leading producer of chips, imposed curbs on exports of this product to Russia after Moscow sent thousands of troops to Ukraine on Feb. 24.
"We plan to increase our production capacity (of noble gases) in the near future. We believe that we will have an opportunity to be heard in this global chain, and this will give us some competitive advantage if it is necessary to build mutually beneficial negotiations with our colleagues," Shpak said.
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
"What we learn from History is that no one learns from History."
Count Otto Von Bismarck.
Price of a pint exceeds £8 for the first time
The Ukraine war has put a strain on the cost of barley — a key ingredient in beer
The price of a pint has surpassed £8 for the first time with the average cost of a tipple jumping by more than 70pc since the 2008 financial crisis.
Spiralling inflation has pushed the average price of a pint of beer in the UK to £3.95, according to data from research agency CGA, up from £2.30 in 2008.
The data from CGA, which tracks prices by frequently surveying more than 5,550 random bars and pubs, also showed that, for the first time, the average price of a pint at one London pub breached £8.
The average brew in the London pub, which CGA did not name, cost a whopping £8.06, while the cheapest average pint was found at a pub in Lancashire and cost £1.79.
It comes as the British economy contends with soaring prices across the board, with Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, warning that inflation will hit a four-decade high this year.
The war in Ukraine has put a particular strain on the cost of barley which is one of the key ingredients in beer.
Ukraine was the world’s fourth largest producer of barley before Vladimir Putin’s invasion, representing nearly one fifth of the global export market last year.
More
Inflation is Inevitably Affecting the Global Supply Chain System: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
by Theo Smid, Senior Economist, Atradius June 2 20022
The prevalence of global inflation, at least over the course of the past year, has been significantly on the rise. In fact, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), inflation rates around the world have recently reached an average of 8.7 percent. In many countries, the rates are even higher and inflation rates are projected to be as high as 68% in Turkey, 58% in Argentina, and remarkably high in other parts of the world.
There are likely many underlying causes of global inflation, including increased government spending throughout the “COVID Era” (which might not even be over, yet), rising energy prices and loose monetary policies by the world’s central banks and several others. Most economists have been forecasting an early 2020s inflation boom for at least the past two years.
Undeniably, the existence of global inflation has directly affected international supply chains and is also partly a result of COVID-related distortions of these supply chains. And almost every individual component of these chains has been affected. Compared to where the global economy stood just two years ago, it now costs quite a bit more to acquire raw materials, manufacture goods, and—perhaps most notably—ship these goods to other parts of the world. Pandemic-related disruptions have also created a misallocation of shipping containers, pushing up the transport price.
As expected, the recent explosion in global inflation has made it much harder for many companies to operate. The prevalence of corporate insolvency has been notably on the rise globally. Firms, in general, are having a much more difficult time paying their previously agreed-upon debts in full and on time. If inflation continues to increase, the widespread existence of firm-specific insolvency will be likely to continue.
Of course, even the very near future of the global economy will always be difficult to forecast—listening to many of the world’s leading economists and flipping a coin will often yield the same results. Nevertheless, any firm that is directly reliant on the global supply chain system (as most are) will need to consider the various possible scenarios that are likely to emerge. Let’s take a look at the best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios that will affect the global economy throughout the rest of 2022.
More
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Behind the high-tech COVID-19 tests you probably haven’t heard about
OTC molecular tests combine PCR accuracy with the convenience of rapid antigen tests
WhenWhen you think about getting tested for COVID-19, you’re most likely picturing two types of tests: the at-home rapid antigen tests you can buy at the drugstore and the PCR test where the results are processed by a lab. What you’re probably less familiar with are at-home molecular tests that you can buy online.
In a nutshell, these at-home molecular tests combine the accuracy of PCR tests with the convenience of antigen tests. It’s a potent combination, as it reduces the chances of a self-test delivering a false negative result. That, in turn, can help people plan with a greater degree of certainty. It’s a big reason why companies like Google provide these tests to their workers as part of return to office plans. Currently, the FDA has authorized three OTC at-home molecular tests: Cue Health, Detect, and Lucira Health. However, when I polled friends, family, and co-workers, none were aware that this was an option — and some weren’t sure about the difference between molecular and antigen tests to begin with. If these tests are so convenient and accurate, why isn’t everyone using them? How come more people haven’t heard about them?
Hint: they’re expensive. The Cue Health tests that Google gives its workers require you to buy a separate hub. That device, plus a three-pack of tests, costs $444. That number doesn’t even include extra fees to verify your results for travel. And yet, Cue, Detect, and Lucira all claim their tests are accessible for the average person. We tried all three to find out how well these tests worked, what their limitations are, and what scenarios these pricey tests might be worth shelling out for.
More
https://www.theverge.com/2022/6/3/23141813/molecular-covid-19-test-otc-pcr-fda
Dogs may be better at detecting Covid-19 than nasal PCR tests, study finds
Trained canines detected Covid in 97% of symptomatic cases and nearly 100% of asymptomatic cases
Thu 2 Jun 2022 16.45 BST
Trained dogs may be able to detect Covid-19 more effectively than nasal swab PCR tests, according to new research.
A study published on Wednesday by the peer-reviewed Plos One journal found that canines were able to better detect the presence of Covid than PCR antigenic tests in both symptomatic and asymptomatic people.
In the study, trained dogs were able to detect Covid in 97% of symptomatic cases and nearly 100% of asymptomatic cases.
“The dog doesn’t lie,” Dominique Grandjean, a professor at the Alfort National Veterinary School in France and a study author, told Science News, noting that different errors can occur with PCR tests.
The study featured 335 participants from Covid screening centers in Paris. Of the participants, 109 were positive with Covid, including 31 who were asymptomatic.
The detection dogs, provided by French fire stations and the United Arab Emirates, received three to six weeks of training, depending on if a dog was previously trained for odor detection.
The dogs sniffed samples of human sweat placed in an olfaction cone. If a dog detected Covid, it sat down in front of the cone.
Ultimately, the trained dogs were more sensitive to positive cases. Nasal PCR tests were better able to better detect negative cases.
In two false positive cases, dogs falsely identified other coronavirus respiratory illness strains that were not Covid.
While there have been previous studies on the capability of dogs to detect Covid, this is believed to be the first to compare the accuracy of dogs to antigenic tests.
A study published in May by researchers in the UK found that trained dogs could detect Covid with an accuracy of 82% to 94%, NBC News reported.
A 2021 study in Florida found that dogs had a 73% to 93% accuracy rate after a month of training.
The authors of the French study said more dogs could soon be used to detect Covid in mass screening settings including airports.
PCR tests can take days to deliver a result. The trained dogs were able to analyze 20 samples in just 15 seconds, Grandjean told NBC.
More
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/02/dogs-covid-19-detection-better-pcr-tests-study
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Algorithm-aided antibiotic hunt yields powerful new drug candidate
Michael Irving May 27, 2022
Algorithms have helped uncover a new antibiotic candidate that shows promise against some particularly nasty bugs, using a novel mode of attack that should be hard for them to develop resistance to. Most importantly it could unlock a whole new arsenal of antibiotics.
We humans aren’t the only organisms that want to kill bacteria – nature has developed a wide range of antibacterial compounds, many of them used by bacteria themselves to gain the upper hand in the eons-long turf war against other bacteria.
Most of our antibiotics are sourced from this arsenal, originally grown from cultures of bacteria and later synthesized into more potent forms. The problem is, over time bacteria evolve resistance to these drugs, forcing us to make new ones, until they inevitably become resistant to those as well. Progress has slowed drastically in recent decades as we start to run out of the easiest bacteria to work with, leaving antibiotic-resistant bacteria looming as one of the world’s most pressing health threats.
“Many antibiotics come from bacteria, but most bacteria can’t be grown in the lab,” said Sean Brady, corresponding author of the study. “It follows that we’re probably missing out on most antibiotics.”
To help parse through the possibilities much faster, the Rockefeller researchers used algorithms to investigate what are known as biosynthetic gene clusters. These are groups of genes that code for a series of proteins – including some that may have antibacterial properties – but are just too numerous and fiddly for humans to sort through.
“Bacteria are complicated, and just because we can sequence a gene doesn’t mean we know how the bacteria would turn it on to produce proteins,” said Brady. “There are thousands and thousands of uncharacterized gene clusters, and we have only ever figured out how to activate a fraction of them.”
But the algorithms can sort through these gene clusters much faster, and pick out the most promising candidate compounds that could have antibacterial effects. From there, human chemists can then synthesize that much shorter list of compounds and test them.
And sure enough, this process turned out one particularly promising compound, which the team named cilagicin. It originated in a gene cluster called “cil,” which was selected because of its similarity to other antibiotic-producing genes.
In lab tests, cilagicin was able to kill bacteria reliably, including several strains that are resistant to existing antibiotics. Importantly, it didn’t harm human cells, and was able to treat bacterial infections in live mice. Most impressively however is that it even managed to kill bacteria that the researchers specifically engineered to resist the drug.
More
This weekend’s musical diversion. Approx. 10 minutes.
Vivaldi - Concerto for violin, organ and strings in F major (RV 542); Anton Hansch (1813-1876)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1NKnfYAHfE
This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 14 minutes.
Power of the b Pawn || Carlsen vs Rajabov || Norway Chess (2022)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aszOsEeFBX0
This week’s maths update. Approx. 9 minutes.
Genius student solved this in 1 minute - insanely hard geometry problem
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuJQaxZvlYs
Finally. The pineapple. Approx. 10 minutes.
The Bizarre History of Pineapples
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3-uKgiyE3Y
"All treaties between great states cease to be binding when they come in conflict with the struggle for existence."
Count Otto Von Bismarck.
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