David
Rose.
In the stock casinos, more churn and burn as stagflation
inches towards the next global recession.
More new gloomy warnings too, from the US Treasury Secretary
and the World Bank.
Despite clear signs of a slowing global economy, the crude
oil price remains at close to double last year’s price, the wheat price close
to its all time record high.
What happens to the northern hemisphere wheat crop and to
the Asian rice crop this year, will determine whether planet Earth merely has a
food price inflation shock or a food availability catastrophe later this year.
Below, more exit rally in the stock casinos as our new bear
market continues to roll up.
Last year we said, 'Things can't go on like this', and
they didn't, they got worse.
Will Rogers.
Asia-Pacific stocks rise; India’s
interest rate decision ahead Published
Tue, Jun 7 2022 7:31 PM EDT
Updated 3 Hours Ago
SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia-Pacific rose in Wednesday
morning trade as investors look ahead to the Reserve Bank of India’s latest
interest rate decision expected later today.
The Nikkei 225
in Japan advanced 0.94% while the Topix index climbed 1.08%.
Japan’s economy shrank an annualized 0.5% in the first
quarter, revised government data showed Wednesday — an improvement over the
initial estimate of a 1% contraction.
In Hong Kong, the Hang
Seng index jumped 1.22% as shares of Alibaba surged
close to 5%. The Shanghai Composite
in mainland China edged 0.19% higher while the Shenzhen Component climbed 0.128%.
South Korea’s Kospi
gained 0.32%. The S&P/ASX 200
in Australia rose 0.78%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
traded 0.88% higher.
The Reserve Bank of India is set to announce its latest
interest rate decision later on Wednesday. That comes on the back of the
Reserve Bank of Australia’s surprise
50 basis points rate hike on Tuesday .
“With inflation accelerating even more sharply than
expected to 7.8% for April ... there is little doubt that the RBI will continue
with further tightening at this scheduled meeting,” Mizuho Bank’s Vishnu
Varathan wrote in a Wednesday note.
He added that the bank’s base case is for a hike of 35
basis points to lift the repo rate to 4.75% — that would take it to a
cumulative 75 basis points hike since May, he said. The repo rate refers to the
interest rate that the central bank lends to commercial banks.
Overnight stateside, the S&P 500 climbed 0.95% to
4,160.68. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 264.36 points, or 0.8%, to
33,180.14. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.94% to 12,175.23.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/08/asia-markets-japan-economy-reserve-bank-of-india-rate-decision-currencies-oil.html
Fed GDP tracker shows the economy
could be on the brink of a recession Published
Tue, Jun 7 2022 2:43 PM EDT
Updated 3 Hours Ago
A widely followed Federal Reserve gauge is indicating that
the U.S. economy could be headed for a second consecutive quarter of negative
growth, meeting a rule-of-thumb definition for a recession.
In an update posted Tuesday, the Atlanta
Fed’s GDPNow tracker is now pointing to an annualized gain of just 0.9% for
the second quarter.
Following a 1.5%
drop in the first three months of the year, the indicator is showing the
economy doesn’t have much further to go before it slides into what many
consider a recession.
GDPNow follows economic data in real time and uses it to
project the way the economy is heading. Tuesday’s data, combined with other
recent releases, resulted in the model downgrading what had been an estimate of
1.3% growth as of June 1 to the new outlook for a 0.9% gain.
Personal consumption expenditures, a measure of consumer
spending that is responsible for nearly 70% of gross domestic product, saw a
cut to a 3.7% gain from a previous 4.4% estimate. Also, real gross private
domestic investment now is expected to shave 8.5% off growth, from the previous
8.3%.
At the same time, an improvement to the trade outlook
resulted in a mild boost to the estimate.
The U.S. trade deficit with its global partners fell to $87.1
billion in April — still a large number by historical standards but down more
than $20 billion from March’s record. On net, trade is expected to subtract
0.13 percentage point from GDP in the second quarter, from a previous estimate
of -0.25 percentage point, according to the Atlanta Fed.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/07/fed-gdp-tracker-shows-the-economy-could-be-on-the-brink-of-a-recession.html
World Bank slashes global growth
forecast to 2.9%, warns of 'stagflation' risk Andrea Shalal Tue, June 7,
2022 at 2:32 PM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The World Bank
on Tuesday slashed its global growth forecast by nearly a third to 2.9% for
2022, warning that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has compounded the damage from
the COVID-19 pandemic, and many countries now faced recession.
The war in Ukraine had magnified the
slowdown in the global economy, which was now entering what could become
"a protracted period of feeble growth and elevated inflation," the
World Bank said in its Global Economic Prospects report, warning that the
outlook could still grow worse.
In a news conference, World Bank
President David Malpass said global growth could fall to 2.1% in 2022 and 1.5%
in 2023, driving per capita growth close to zero, if downside risks materialized.
Malpass said global growth was being
hammered by the war, fresh COVID lockdowns in China, supply-chain disruptions
and the rising risk of stagflation -- a period of weak growth and high
inflation last seen in the 1970s.
The danger of stagflation is
considerable today," Malpass wrote in the foreword to the report.
"Subdued growth will likely persist throughout the decade because of weak
investment in most of the world. With inflation now running at multi-decade
highs in many countries and supply expected to grow slowly, there is a risk
that inflation will remain higher for longer."
Between 2021 and 2024, the pace of
global growth is projected to slow by 2.7 percentage points, Malpass said, more
than twice the deceleration seen between 1976 and 1979.
The report warned that interest rate
increases required to control inflation at the end of the 1970s were so steep
that they touched off a global recession in 1982, and a string of financial
crises in emerging market and developing economies.
Ayhan Kose, director of the World
Bank unit that prepares the forecast, told reporters there was "a real
threat" that faster than expected tightening of financial conditions could
push some countries into the kind of debt crisis seen in the 1980s.
More
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/world-bank-slashes-global-growth-133254463.html
Stagflation
is probably the worst word of vocabulary for financial markets because it's the
worst of both worlds. Inflation stays high and the economy slows, I think we're
getting a whiff of stagflation now.
Leo Grohowski
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our
spendthrift politicians, inflation now
needs an entire section of its own.
Yellen says inflation to stay
high, Biden likely to up forecast David Lawder and Andrea Shalal Tue, June 7,
2022 at 2:41 PM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury
Secretary Janet Yellen told senators on Tuesday that she expected inflation to
remain high and the Biden administration would likely increase the 4.7%
inflation forecast for this year in its budget proposal.
During a Senate Finance Committee
hearing, Yellen said that the United States was dealing with "unacceptable
levels of inflation," but that she hoped price hikes would soon begin to
subside.
U.S. Consumer Price Index inflation
has been tracking above 8% in recent months, the highest readings in over 40
years and well above President Joe Biden's administration's forecast for its
fiscal 2023 budget.
But another metric, the core
Personal Consumption Expenditures price index excluding volatile food and
energy costs, has begun to cool, edging down to 4.9% in April
"I do expect inflation to
remain high although I very much hope that it will be coming down now,"
she said.
Yellen repeatedly rejected
Republican assertions that inflation was being fueled by Biden's $1.9 trillion American
Rescue Plan (ARP) COVID-19 spending legislation last year.
"We're seeing high inflation in
almost all of the developed countries around the world. And they have very
different fiscal policies," Yellen said. "So it can't be the case
that the bulk of the inflation that we're experiencing reflects the impact of
the ARP."
More
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-faces-unacceptable-levels-inflation-134146225.html
FARMERS
NATIONAL CO. REPORTS LAND PRICES ARE UP 20% FOR THE YEAR Jun.
7, 2022
"Farmers, landowners and
the agricultural industry are facing more uncertainty at this moment than
almost any other time. The Ukrainian invasion has thrown in a multitude of
short and long-term unknowns in the food and ag world," Dickhut said. Inputs like fuel and fertilizer are vastly more
expensive, raising the cost to produce a crop while feed costs are much higher
for livestock producers. Grain prices are at historic levels, but will these go
higher or lower? Will farmer buyers become more cautious in their outlook to
bid up land if input costs and supply chain issues escalate?
More
https://www.agrimarketing.com/s/141181
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible,
and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a
new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A
Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery
Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 -
08:40 PM
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
COVID-19 cases are rising in many
states. What experts say makes this summer different. Adrianna
Rodriguez, USA TODAY Mon, June 6, 2022 at 6:30
PM
Shortly before the start of the third summer of the
pandemic, the USA is undergoing a sixth wave of COVID-19 cases.
Compared with previous surges, this one looks more like a
swell, health experts said.
The rise in cases reported in the Northeast in recent weeks
appears to have peaked, but upward trends continue in at least 21 states,
according to a USA TODAY analysis of Johns Hopkins University data. Health
experts said cases are likely higher because of underreported home tests.
Although cases are rising, health experts said
hospitalizations remain in check. There are about 350 deaths reported per day
based on a seven-day average, which is more than a hundred deaths less than
this time last year, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
“We’re only about 10 to 15 cases higher than what we were a
year ago as far as hospitalizations, and there are fewer patients requiring ICU
care, which is encouraging,” said Dr. Adia Ross, chief medical officer of Duke
Regional Hospital. “Even though cases are up, the hospitalizations are not as
high as they have been.”
Here's what else is different going into the third pandemic
summer:
Compared with previous surges, this one looks more like a
swell, health experts said.
The rise in cases reported in the Northeast in recent weeks
appears to have peaked, but upward trends continue in at least 21 states,
according to a USA TODAY analysis of Johns Hopkins University data. Health
experts said cases are likely higher because of underreported home tests.
Although cases are rising, health experts said
hospitalizations remain in check. There are about 350 deaths reported per day
based on a seven-day average, which is more than a hundred deaths less than this
time last year, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
“We’re only about 10 to 15 cases higher than what we were a
year ago as far as hospitalizations, and there are fewer patients requiring ICU
care, which is encouraging,” said Dr. Adia Ross, chief medical officer of Duke
Regional Hospital. “Even though cases are up, the hospitalizations are not as
high as they have been.”
Here's what else is different going into the third pandemic
summer:
Those who avoided
COVID-19 are getting it for the first time
If it feels like everyone
in your circle is getting sick, you’re not wrong.
COVID-19 is everywhere, and many who
avoided the virus are getting it for the first time, said Dr. Stuart Ray,
professor of medicine in the division of infectious diseases at Johns Hopkins
University.
After more than two years of
preventive measures, pandemic fatigue has set in, health experts said, and more
people attend social gatherings and travel without wearing a mask.
“When you lower your guard at a time
when the rates are high, you’re pretty likely to encounter someone who is
positive,” Ray said.
Public health officials have warned
of high case rates for months, but experts said people's behavior is partly
responsible for driving cases higher.
“The reason why it doesn’t feel as
urgent to people is because everyone knows someone who has had COVID or has had
it themselves. And in people who are immunized, most cases are relatively
mild,” said Dr. Paul Sax, professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School and
clinical director of the division of infectious diseases at Brigham and Women’s
Hospital.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/covid-19-cases-still-rising-090011348.html
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker . https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker . https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve
added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Powerful platinum catalyst
remains liquid at room temperature By Michael Irving June 07, 2022
Researchers
have created a form of platinum that can remain liquid at room temperature, by
mixing tiny amounts of the precious metal with gallium. This new liquid
platinum performs catalytic reactions more efficiently than a solid platinum
catalyst, using far less of the metal.
Platinum
is a powerful catalyst for many different reactions, most commonly used in fuel cells and in
catalytic
converters to clean up vehicle emissions. The
problem, however, is that it’s one of the rarest and most expensive metals on
Earth, limiting the scale of devices with platinum catalysts. As such,
scientists have been experimenting with new ways to reduce the amount of
platinum needed for these devices or even remove it entirely .
Now, researchers in Australia have
found a novel way to drastically reduce the amount of platinum required for
these reactions. Rather than anchoring platinum atoms onto a solid matrix, the
team found a way to suspend them in a liquid, making it more efficient and
reusable.
First, platinum is dissolved into
gallium at around 300 °C (572 °F) for a couple of hours. Then, once the mixture
cools down, it becomes a catalytic material that remains liquid above gallium’s
low melting point of 29.8 °C (85.6 °F), which is room temperature on a warm
day. That’s far lower than platinum’s usual melting point of 1,768 °C (3,215
°F).
The resulting material had some
amazing properties. It could perform both oxidation and reduction reactions,
where oxygen is added to or removed from a substance. Even with platinum making
up just 0.0001 percent of the atoms in the alloy, the liquid catalyst was over
a thousand times more efficient than a solid catalyst composed of 10 percent
platinum. Better yet, by-products don’t build up on the catalyst and reduce its
effects like they do for solid ones.
On closer inspection of the liquid
catalyst, the team found that no two atoms of platinum ever touch each other –
they remain dispersed throughout the gallium. Strangely, the platinum seems to
be exerting its influence on the surrounding gallium, which does the catalytic
work instead.
“The platinum is actually a little bit below the surface
and it’s activating the gallium atoms around it,” said Dr. Andrew
Christofferson, an author of the study. “So the magic is happening on the
gallium under the influence of platinum. But without the platinum there, it doesn’t
happen. This is completely different from any other catalysis anyone has shown,
that I’m aware of.”
The team says the new technique demonstrates a way to
stretch our thin supplies of platinum further, allowing far smaller amounts to
be used for the same or even stronger catalytic effects. This should also bring
costs down, allowing effective catalysts to be used more widely.
But the benefits go beyond platinum – the team says this
kind of liquid metal catalyst could be combined with over 1,000 other elements,
resulting in just as many different reactions. Investigating these will be a
focus of future work.
The research was published in the journal Nature
Chemistry
Source: Scimex
https://newatlas.com/science/platinum-catalyst-liquid-room-temperature/?utm_source=New+Atlas+Subscribers&utm_campaign=8f2921bd19-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_06_07_08_06&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65b67362bd-8f2921bd19-90625829
The farmer has to be an optimist or he wouldn't still
be a farmer.
Will Rogers.
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