Baltic Dry Index. 2204 -91 Brent Crude 117.19
Spot Gold 1822 US 2 Year Yield 3.10 +0.02
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 29/06/22 World 550,643,002
Deaths 6,353,680
“It’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose your own.”
It’s starting to feel a lot like the next global recession has already started, even as we continue to suffer from very large inflation, especially in foodstuffs and energy.
It’s also starting to feel like neither the G-7 leaders or central banksters know what they are doing or are in any way on top of events.
I wonder if this is how they felt as Rome declined and ultimately fell.
If we are already in a new global recession, we are in for a world of social unrest, labour unrest, massive debt defaults, massive Magic Money Tree issuance to try to buy off social unrest, and a new age of leftist populist politics.
Asian stocks lose bounce from shorter China quarantine, slip on inflation fears
June 29, 2022 4:14 AM GMT+1
TOKYO, June 29 (Reuters) - Stocks fell across Asia on Wednesday morning, extending overnight losses on Wall Street amid concerns over recession, inflation and high oil prices, which also boosted the safe-haven dollar.
Japan's Nikkei index fell 1.01% in early trading, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 1.1%, dragged lower by Australian shares (.AXJO), off 1.29%, and Korea's KOSPI (.KS11), down 1.57%.
Asian shares had ended the previous session on a positive trajectory after China announced an easing of its quarantine requirements for inbound passengers, in what some observes saw as the biggest relaxation so far of its "zero COVID" strategy. read more
But the impact was petering out on Wednesday.
"Inevitably, markets tend to overreact to these sorts of news," said Carlos Casanova, senior economist at UBP in Hong Kong. "In order for that to be sustainable, we really want to see these measures materialise into actual reopening."
Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) which hit a four week high the day before, lost 0.6% while the Hong Kong benchmark (.HSI) fell 1.3%.
The losses in Asia followed a turbulent day on U.S. markets, with the S&P 500 index down more than 2% after data showed U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a 16-month low in June due to fears high inflation could cause the economy to slow significantly in the second half of the year. read more
More
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-wrapup-1-2022-06-29/
European markets set to slide at the open as investors weigh up the economic outlook
LONDON — European stocks are expected to slide at the open on Wednesday as global sentiment remains volatile and investors monitor the economic outlook.
The U.K.’s FTSE index is seen opening 51 points lower at 7,276, Germany’s DAX 87 points lower at 13,141, France’s CAC 40 down 47 points at 6,039 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 132 points lower at 21,806, according to data from IG.
The lower open anticipated for European markets comes amid declines elsewhere overnight. In Asia-Pacific markets, Hong Kong shares led losses on Wednesday, with stocks there taking the negative lead from Wall Street. U.S. stock futures were flat early on Wednesday after the major averages made a failed attempt at a bounce in the previous session.
Asia-Pacific markets had been buoyed Tuesday after China’s decision to halve the Covid quarantine period to seven days, with a further three days spent at home, which gave markets a signal that Beijing is relaxing its strict approach to eradicating Covid-19.
In other news, investors will continue to watch for news out of the NATO summit in Spain on Wednesday as well as the European Central Bank’s forum in Sintra, Portugal.
There was momentous news from the NATO summit in Madrid on Tuesday as NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced that a deal had been reached to admit Sweden and Finland after objections from NATO member Turkey had been resolved.
Earnings come from H&M and Mulberry on Wednesday. Data releases include euro zone consumer confidence figures for June and Spanish inflation data also for June.
Wall Street layoffs likely ahead as two-year hiring boom turns to bust
Published Mon, Jun 27 2022 8:00 AM EDT Updated Mon, Jun 27 2022 3:06 PM EDT
Less than six months ago, Wall Street bankers were reaping the rewards from a historic boom in mergers and IPOs.
Now, thanks to a confluence of factors that have cast a pall over markets and caused most deal categories to plunge this year, broad-based job cuts loom for the first time since 2019, according to industry sources.
The turnaround illustrates the feast-or-famine nature of Wall Street advisory work. Firms were caught understaffed when central banks unleashed trillions of dollars in support for markets at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. The ensuing surge in capital markets activity such as public listings led to a bull market for Wall Street talent, from 22-year-old college graduates to richly compensated rainmakers.
For the first time in years, bank employees seemed to gain the upper hand. They pushed back against return-to-office mandates. They received record bonuses, multiple rounds of raises, protected time away from work and even Peloton bicycles.
But that’s over, according to those who place bankers and traders at Wall Street firms.
“I can’t see a situation where banks don’t do RIFs in the second half of the year,” David McCormack, head of recruitment firm DMC Partners, said in a phone interview. The word “RIF” is industry jargon meaning a “reduction in force,” or layoffs.
The industry is limping into the traditionally slower summer months, squeezed by steep declines in financial assets, uncertainty caused by the Ukraine war and central banks’ moves to combat inflation.
IPO volumes have dropped a staggering 91% in the U.S. from a year earlier, according to Dealogic data. Companies are unwilling or unable to issue stock or bonds, leading to steep declines in equity and debt capital markets revenues, especially in high yield, where volumes have fallen 75%. They’re also less likely to make acquisitions, leading to a 30% drop in deals volume so far this year.
More
China’s economy didn’t bounce back in the second quarter, China Beige Book survey finds
BEIJING — Chinese businesses ranging from services to manufacturing reported a slowdown in the second quarter from the first, reflecting the prolonged impact of Covid controls.
That’s according to the U.S.-based China Beige Book, which claims to have conducted more than 4,300 interviews in China in late April and the month ended June 15.
“While most high-profile lockdowns were relaxed in May, June data do not show the powerhouse bounce-back most expected,” according to a report released Tuesday. The analysis found few signs that government stimulus was having much of an effect yet.
Shanghai, China’s largest city by gross domestic product, was locked down in April and May. Beijing and other parts of the country also imposed some level of Covid controls to contain mainland China’s worst outbreak of the virus since the pandemic’s initial shock in early 2020.
In late May, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang held an unprecedentedly massive videoconference in which he called on officials to “work hard” — for growth in the second quarter and a drop in unemployment.
Between the first and second quarters, hiring declined across all manufacturing sectors except for food and beverage processing, according to the China Beige Book report.
The employment situation likely won’t start to improve until China stimulates its economy more in the fall, China Beige Book Managing Director Shehzad H. Qazi said Wednesday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
So far, there’s been little sign that stimulus has kicked in, especially in infrastructure, said Qazi who is based in New York.
“Transportation, construction companies aren’t telling you they’re getting new products,” he said. “They’re telling you they’ve slowed investment, their new projects have actually slowed.”
Unsold goods piled up, except in autos. Orders for domestic consumption and overseas export mostly fell in the second quarter from the first. Orders for textiles and chemicals processing were among the hardest-hit.
More
“Suckers
think that you cure greed with money, addiction with substances, expert
problems with experts, banking with bankers, economics with economists, and
debt crises with debt spending”
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
ECB to drain cash in offset to new yield-capping scheme -sources
June 28, 2022 6:06 AM GMT+1
SINTRA, Portugal, June 28 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will likely drain cash from the banking system to offset any bond purchases made to cap borrowing costs for indebted euro zone states, two sources told Reuters.
Bond yields for Italy and other debt-laden countries have surged since the ECB unveiled plans to stop buying debt and raise its interest rates for the first time in over a decade next month to fight runaway inflation.
The market turmoil has forced the ECB to speed up work on a new bond-buying scheme to curb yields. This leaves it in the difficult position of raising borrowing costs for the euro zone as a whole, while at the same time capping them for some of its weaker members.
To avoid this apparent contradiction, the ECB is considering pairing the new bond-purchase scheme with auctions at which banks can park cash at the ECB for a more favourable interest rate than the ordinary rate on deposits, the sources with direct knowledge of the matter said.
This would allow the ECB to 'sterilise' the bond purchases under the new scheme, in a repeat of its weekly "liquidity-absorbing" operations of a decade ago. These offered banks an interest rate up to that of the ECB's refinancing operation, then 0.25%.
An ECB spokeswoman declined to comment.
Unlike a decade ago, the ECB has created 4.48 trillion euros ($4.74 trillion) of excess reserves in the banking system via a plethora of stimulus over the past decade, creating ample room for manoeuvre.
The planned solution would also be more convenient than selling bonds from countries where borrowing costs are lower, such as Germany, as this would likely cause losses for the local central bank.
Bank of Italy governor Ignazio Visco alluded to such a move earlier this month, when he said the ECB did not need to sell bonds to sterilise its purchases and could work with interest rates instead. read more
The new scheme, aimed at fighting financial fragmentation between euro zone countries, will be unveiled at the ECB's Governing Council meeting of July 21.
More
Inflation Hits July 4 Cookouts With Food Prices Up as Much as 36%
Mon, June 27, 2022 at 7:15 PM
(Bloomberg) -- Add Fourth of July cookouts to the list of what Americans will pay more for this year — a lot more.
Ground beef prices are up 36% from a year ago, while chicken breasts gained by a third, according to a survey from the American Farm Bureau Federation. Overall, revelers can expect to spend 17% more on food for a barbecue, marking the biggest increase since the lobbying organization began tracking data a decade ago.
In 2021, the cost of an Independence Day cookout declined by less than 1%, according to the group. But much has changed since then. Costs for fuel, labor and key farming inputs like fertilizer have soared. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has worsened the situation by disrupting global agriculture supply chains, according to Roger Cryan, chief economist for the Farm Bureau.
Paying more for burgers and lemonade (up 22%) hits just as one measure of US consumer sentiment fell to an all-time low. How that will impact spending remains to be seen, but the shoppers did pull back in May, and there are more predictions of a looming recession.
More
Inflation Hits July 4 Cookouts With Food Prices Up as Much as 36% (yahoo.com)
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.
Epstein-Barr may play a role in some long COVID; coronavirus can impair blood sugar processing by organs
Mon, June 27, 2022 at 8:23 PM
(Reuters) - The following is a summary of some recent studies on COVID-19. They include research that warrants further study to corroborate the findings and that has yet to be certified by peer review.
Epstein-Barr virus may play role in some long COVID cases
COVID-19 may reactivate a common virus that lurks unseen in most people, and that effect might increase patients' risk of certain long-lasting symptoms, according to preliminary findings from a study. More than 90% of adults have been infected with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV). Most remained asymptomatic, but some developed mononucleosis as adolescents or young adults.
Among 280 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections, including 208 with long COVID, researchers found that at four months after diagnosis, fatigue and problems with thinking and reasoning were more common in study participants with immune cells in their blood showing signs of recent EBV reactivation. These signs of reactivation were not linked with other long COVID findings such as gastrointestinal or heart and lung problems, however. And EBV itself was not found in patients' blood, which suggests any reactivation likely is transient and happens during acute COVID-19, Dr. Timothy Henrich of the University of California, San Francisco and colleagues reported on medRxiv https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.06.21.22276660v1 ahead of peer review.
The findings do not prove that EBV reactivation caused patients' symptoms, Henrich said. And even if it did, "There are likely many other causes of long COVID symptoms such as persistent SARS-CoV-2 virus in tissues over time and a dysregulated immune system that may arise from viral persistence," he said. "Further study of various tissues is urgently needed, as are studies that follow participants from the time of acute infection to months or years thereafter."
SARS-CoV-2 can impair blood sugar processing by organs
Infection with the coronavirus impairs the activity of multiple genes involved in the body's chemical processes, including blood sugar metabolism, and for the first time researchers have seen these effects not just in patients' respiratory tract but elsewhere in the body.
Japanese researchers analyzed blood and tissue samples from patients with mild or severe COVID-19 and from healthy volunteers, evaluating the "expression" - or activity levels - of genes that control the so-called insulin/IGF signaling pathway, which in turn affects many body functions necessary for metabolism, growth, and fertility. "The results were striking," study leader Iichiro Shimomura of Osaka University said in a statement. "Infection with SARS-CoV-2 affected the expression of insulin/IGF signaling pathway components in the lung, liver, adipose tissue, and pancreatic cells." The resulting disruptions in blood sugar metabolism likely contribute to COVID-19's effects on organs, the researchers said.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/epstein-barr-may-play-role-192345610.html
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Well, if they say so, but I have my doubts.
Lightyear 0: The solar-powered car you can 'drive for months without charging'
Updated: 27/06/2022 - 12:51
The Dutch startup Lightyear's futuristic solar-powered car, with its five square metres of solar panels on the roof and bonnet and space-age aerodynamic sleekness, can cover 70 km powered solely from the sun - if the weather is good, that is.
But right now the cost of producing one - €250,000 - means it's not commercially viable. Or not yet, anyway.
"It shows that it is possible, it serves as a technology demonstrator. But our goal is to be able to reach a mass market in three years, with a car at €30,000," said Lex Hoefsloot, the CEO of Lightyear.
In Navarre in northern Spain where it's been tested, the sun is generous with its rays, but the obvious question remains: What happens when it gets cloudy?
That's where the battery comes in.
"You can use the sun whenever the weather is nice to charge the battery. So the downside of power solar actually isn't that bad when you have a battery with the car," says Professor Gregory F. Nemet of the University of Wisconsin.
Lightyear says that in cloudy climates, based on an average daily commute of around 35 km, its car can go for up to two months before it needs to plug in for a charge.
In sunnier countries, that could be up to seven months.
"And for Lightyear 0, range doesn’t start and finish with plugs and sockets. The sun is its source," the company says in its presentation of the model.
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“Recession is when your neighbor loses his job. Depression is when you lose yours. And recovery is when Jimmy Carter loses his.”
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