Baltic Dry Index. 2560 -73 Brent Crude 120.29
Spot Gold 1842
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 07/06/22 World 535,924,290
Deaths 6,321,503
The state is the great fictitious entity by which everyone seeks to live at the expense of everyone else.
Frederic Bastiat.
Don’t look now but Elon Musk seems to be running away from buying Twitter at the Twitter Top.
With interest rates rising everywhere, stagflation rolling over into global recession, and it’s anyone’s guess as to how many Twitter accounts are fake or real, it’s probably a wise move.
Below, Asian Casino stock wobbles. A top, is a top, is a top.
Asia-Pacific stocks mixed as Australia announces rate hike that’s larger than forecast
SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia-Pacific struggled for direction in Tuesday trade as the Reserve Bank of Australia announced a larger-than-expected interest rate decision.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 1.61%, leading losses regionally as shares of major banks dropped: Commonwealth Bank of Australia shed 2.22%, Westpac slipped 1.84% and National Australia Bank slid 2.86%.
The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly announced a 50 basis points increase in the cash rate on Tuesday to 0.85%. Analysts had been expecting a rate hike of 25 basis points or 40 basis points, according to Reuters.
----Mainland Chinese stocks were in positive territory, with the Shanghai Composite up about 0.5% and Shenzhen Component gaining 0.181%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped 0.12%.
Over in South Korea, the Kospi fell 1.4%.
The Nikkei 225 in Japan advanced 0.41%, while the Topix index climbed 0.74%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan traded 0.65% lower.
“I think it’s still way too early to say that markets have bottomed,” Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Tuesday. “If you’re looking at the short-term, I’m pretty cautious. I think we could see more downside.”
“We’ve seen bond yields pushing up again overnight or in fact, for the last week or so they’ve been pushing higher again. Yes, there’s signs of a potential peak in U.S. inflation but other parts of the world, it’s more tenuous and I’d rather see the oil price decisively top out before I get more confident about saying inflation has peaked as well,” Oliver said.
Overnight on Wall Street, the S&P 500 climbed 0.31% to 4,121.43. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 16.08 points higher, or less than 0.1%, to 32,915.78. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4% to 12,061.37.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/07/asia-markets-reserve-bank-of-australia-currencies-oil.html
Next, more on that Twitter Top.
Musk threatens to tear up Twitter deal over 'material breach'
June 7, 2022 12:25 AM GMT+1
(Reuters) - Elon Musk warned Twitter Inc (TWTR.N) on Monday that he might walk away from his $44 billion deal to acquire the social media company if it fails to provide the data on spam and fake accounts that he seeks.
This was not the first time Musk had suggested publicly his acquisition of Twitter may not happen. But the warning, delivered in a letter from Musk's lawyers to Twitter's chief legal officer, Vijaya Gadde, marked an escalation. It accused Twitter of being in "material breach" of its deal obligations.
Musk's threats to tear up the deal have coincided with a plunge in many technology stocks - including the electric car maker that he leads, Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) - amid concerns over an economic slowdown and higher interest rates in the face of raging inflation.
Twitter shares ended down 1.5% at $39.57 on Monday, a large discount to the agreed $52.20 deal price, as investors bet Musk will either convince Twitter to agree to a lower deal price or walk away.
In the letter to Twitter, Musk's lawyers reiterated his request for details on bot accounts and said he reserved all rights to terminate the acquisition as the company was in a "clear material breach" of its obligations by not providing him with the information.
Twitter responded that it planned to enforce the completion of the deal on the agreed terms. "Twitter has and will continue to cooperatively share information with Musk to consummate the transaction in accordance with the terms of the merger agreement," the company said in a statement.
A self proclaimed free-speech absolutist, Musk has said one of his priorities will be to remove "spam bots" from the platform.
He tweeted that the Twitter deal was "temporarily on hold" in mid-May, saying he will not move forward with the offer until the company showed proof that spam bots account for less than 5% of its total users. He has said he believes spam bots constitute at least 20% of the user base. read more
Independent researchers have projected that 9% to 15% of the millions of Twitter profiles may be bots. read more
n his letter, Musk said he needs the data to conduct his own analysis of Twitter users because he did not believe in the company's "lax testing methodologies." Twitter has said it stands by its projections and it cannot provide proprietary information on how it produces them.
"He is trying to walk away from the Twitter deal, this is the first shot across the bow," Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said.
More
What is a bot? | Bot definition
A bot is a software program that operates on the Internet and performs repetitive tasks. While some bot traffic is from good bots, bad bots can have a huge negative impact on a website or application.
More
https://www.cloudflare.com/en-gb/learning/bots/what-is-a-bot/
Up next, what no one in Washington, London or NATO Brussels, knew or cared about before encouraging a disastrous proxy war in Ukraine.
International food crisis stemming from Ukraine war has no quick fixes, experts say
Food shortage stemming from Russia's invasion of Ukraine could leave 50 million more people risking famine, experts say
Published June 5, 2022 9:00am EDT
A food crisis putting nearly 50 million additional people around the world at risk of famine has no quick solutions, officials with the World Food Programme and its U.S. counterpart told Fox News.
The war in Ukraine is fueling the food shortage, but supply chain complications stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, rising costs and climate issues, has compounded the crisis, according to the officials.
"We have more threats to food insecurity than I think we've ever had in humanity," Food Program USA CEO Barron Segar told Fox News. "Today, there are 48.9 million people that are on the brink of famine."
"We know that people are dying today because there's a lack of food," he continued.
Russia and Ukraine, together considered the breadbasket of the world, accounted for nearly 30% of global wheat exports before the war, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute. But Russia has attacked Ukraine’s ports and has formed a blockade against it in the Black Sea.
"The war in Ukraine has destabilized the world as it relates to food," Segar said. "It is not just a war against Ukraine. It is a war against humanity."
"Many countries are suffering, and millions of people are going to suffer even more because of this war," he added.
The World Food Programme, a branch of the United Nations, serves about 140 million people, according to Segar. But he said the group is having to cut food rations.
"Imagine telling your child that they're going to go from two meals a day down to one," Segar told Fox News.
---- "The global economy coming into this was already a bit of a stressed situation because of COVID and the impact of the past couple of years on shipping and on production," World Food Programme’s deputy director of emergencies, Brian Lander, told Fox News.
The number of severely food insecure people has doubled to 135 million since the pandemic began, according to the World Food Programme. More than 800 million people face chronic hunger.
More
https://www.foxnews.com/world/international-food-crisis-ukraine-war-no-quick-fixes-experts-say
Finally, Russia sanctions back, in that totally unnecessary war in the Ukraine.
Germany faces €5bn bill after Russia sanctions Gazprom division
Monday 06 June 2022 6:45 am
Russian sanctions against Gazprom Germania could cost Germany an extra €5bn a year to pay for replacement gas supplies, after Russia decided to stop supplying the energy division.
Gazprom Germania was previously a subsidiary of state-backed Gazprom before it was ditched by its parent company.
This followed the German government putting the company under trustee management after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Since then, the German energy regulator, acting as trustee, has had to buy replacement gas on the market to fulfil supply contracts with German municipal utilities and regional suppliers.
The economy ministry estimates an extra 10m cubic meters per day are required.
A spokesperson told news agency Reuters: “The quantities are procured on the market and at market prices. No information can be given on the exact amounts due to commercial confidentiality.”
German newspaper Welt am Sonntag has estimated the current cost would be around €3.5bn, while further costs could arise from the filling of the Rehden natural gas storage facility – which Economy Minister Robert Habeck ordered last week.
The paper revealed the additional costs would be passed on to energy suppliers and end customers in the form of a gas levy from October.
While Germany dropped its opposition to a ban on Russian oil imports, the country remains dependent on Russia for around half of its gas imports.
This is above the European Union (EU) average, with the trading bloc reliant for approximately 40 per cent of the oil it buys.
It has not joined calls for a potential ban on Russian gas supplies, with only Lithuania unilaterally bringing in an embargo earlier this year.
Germany has brought in early-phase emergency plans, which could lead to the government taking control of the country’s gas supplies, following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to sign into law requirements for ‘unfriendly’ buyers to pay in roubles for its gas supplies.
This includes German energy giant Uniper, which has bowed to the request and utilised a murky currency conversion system that technically does not breach sanctions.
More
Everyone wants to live at the expense of the state. They forget that the state wants to live at the expense of everyone.
Frederic Bastiat.
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
94% of corn in the ground with soybeans at 78%, USDA says
By Laurie Bedord 6/6/2022
The USDA released its 10th Crop Progress report Monday afternoon. These reports run weekly through the end of November and look at the progress and condition of various crops on a national and state-by-state scale.
CORN
As of Sunday, the report pegged corn planted at 94%, compared with 92% for the previous five-year average; 78% has emerged compared with 81% for the previous five-year average.
The condition of the corn crop was rated 73% good/excellent and 4% poor/very poor. This compares with the previous-year average of 72% good/excellent and 5% poor/very poor
SOYBEANS
As of Sunday, the report has 78% of soybeans planted, compared with 79% for the previous five-year average; 56% has emerged compared with 59% for the previous five-year average.
WHEAT
Spring wheat planted was reported at 82% compared with 97% for the prior five-year average; 55% has emerged compared with 83% for the previous five-year average.
Winter wheat headed came in at 79% vs. the 84% five-year average. Winter wheat condition was 30% good/excellent and 40% poor/very poor. This compares with the previous-year average of 50% good/excellent and 18% poor/very poor.
More
Businesses warn inflation and supply chain crisis could be worse than impact of Covid-19
Sunday 05 June 2022 10:00 pm
THE BUSINESSES at the backbone of the UK economy are increasingly worried inflation and supply chain issues will be more damaging to their prospects than the Covid-19 pandemic was, according to a closely watched sentiment tracker.
Accountants BDO’s survey of medium-sized businesses suggests economic headwinds are squeezing both margins and wages – with tax hikes causing additional frustration.
A third say they have paused or reduced hiring as a direct result of the increase in national insurance contributions required as part of the social care and health levy.
More than a quarter are raising prices as a result of the additional pressures on their bottom line, a move which risks entrenching inflation into the economy for longer. Most economists expect inflation to come close to or top 10 per cent in October, when energy prices increase for consumers as a result of a higher price cap brought in by Ofgem.
A fifth have paused investment decisions due to economic fears.
“This is a deeply troubling picture for the UK’s mid-sized businesses, who have spent over two years since the start of the pandemic operating in survival mode. Now, mounting inflation and the cost of living crisis is once again preventing them from prioritising long-term recovery, especially by putting a pause on much-needed investment,” said Ed Dwan, a partner at BDO, yesterday.
“For many, the rise in National Insurance contributions has been a tipping point – resulting in an increase in salaries that could well exacerbate inflation and the pressures facing businesses right now.”
Gwyn Morgan: Hard facts puncture anti-fossil fuel fantasies
The belief that 84% of global energy supplied by oil and gas can be replaced by so-called 'green energy' is a fantasy
Author of the article: Special to Financial PostPublishing date: Jun 03, 2022
The marvellous Christmas movie Polar Express, starring the inimitable Tom Hanks, ends with the words “anything is possible, if you only believe.” Except, as adults understand, many things aren’t possible, not even if some people do believe them. An obvious example is the fantasy that the 84 per cent of global energy supplied by oil and gas can be replaced by so-called “green energy.”
Since the first UN COP (“Conference of the Parties”) meeting in 1995, world oil demand has increased from 64 to 100 million barrels per day. But even as demand increased, the “environmental, social and governance” (ESG) movement encouraged investors to unload their oil industry holdings. Faced with share valuations reflecting their perceived status as a “sunset Industry,” the rational course for oil company leaders was to pay out large dividends rather than reinvest in production growth. As demand grew, supply therefore stagnated. The Ukraine crisis revealed just how narrow the supply margin has become. Regrettably, most of that margin is in the hands of Vladimir Putin, leaving European countries that depend on Russian oil no choice but to continue to provide the funds with which he ravages the Ukrainian people. This is the tragedy sanctimonious ESG zealots have wrought.
Meanwhile, back in the world capital of “if you only believe” fantasies, the prime minister of a country endowed with one of the world’s largest reserves of oil has presided over a seven-year long anti-oil industry scourge, thwarting multiple proposed export pipelines that could now have been supplying those captive market countries.
Sharing his anti-oil zealotry seems to be a necessary qualification for Mr. Trudeau’s cabinet. Alberta Premier Jason Kenney recently went to Washington to present the Senate Energy Committee with plans to increase Canadian oil exports, thereby freeing-up more U.S. oil to help Europe reduce Russian oil purchases. The idea received a warm reception. Unfortunately, Kenney’s message was promptly contradicted by Federal Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson, who told the same committee that shifting to renewables and hydrogen “will provide true energy and national security to Europe.” In other words, don’t count on Canada to help de-fund Putin’s murderous war unless it lasts five or ten more years.
It’s incomprehensible that during a global oil and gas shortage brought on by the wanton destruction of a civilized democracy, our prime minister thinks all will be well if only Canada rids itself of fossil-fueled vehicles. Deep in delusion, he considers this a perfect time to announce a plan to have 60 per cent of new cars and light duty trucks be “zero emission” by 2030.
When you live in a perennial state of fantasy, facts don’t matter. But here are facts that do matter to Canadians forced to face the real-world impact.
More
https://financialpost.com/opinion/gwyn-morgan-hard-facts-puncture-anti-fossil-fuel-fantasies
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
June 6, 2022, 7:23 a.m.
The Chinese capital relaxed pandemic rules at midnight on Monday, including a ban on dining in, after a partial lockdown that lasted more than a month.
The Chinese capital relaxed pandemic rules at midnight on Monday, including a ban on dining in, after a partial lockdown that lasted more than a month. Although the closures were not as strict as in Shanghai, the authorities in Beijing had suspended some public transportation, forced some people to quarantine, and enforced work-from-home in much of the city.
Yet even as schools and offices are opening in waves and public transportation is being restored, other measures remained in place to prevent the spread of the highly transmissible Omicron variant of the virus. Everyone must wear a mask, have their temperature check, and take P.C.R. tests for everyday activities like riding the subway or going to work.
The measures underscore the commitment of Chinese authorities to stamp out the virus completely, despite curbing economic growth and fueling anger among citizens. The steps have triggered limited and small protests. Still, some cities plan to carry out regular mass testing even in the absence of a local outbreak.
---- The latest virus wave shows signs of abating in the Northeast
The latest coronavirus wave that has affected most of the United States is showing signs of improvement in the Northeast.
More than 29,000 people are hospitalized with Covid-19 across the country, an increase of 16 percent over the past two weeks, and more than 3,000 of those patients are in intensive care.
But in northeastern states, hospitalizations have been declining. In Vermont, numbers have dropped by more than 40 percent over the past two weeks. They declined over 20 percent in Massachusetts and roughly 10 percent in Maine, Connecticut and New York.
Every other region is seeing a rise in hospitalizations, particularly so in the southern states of Alabama and Louisiana, where hospitalizations have risen by at least 70 percent.
Hospitalizations tend to be a more reliable indicator than caseloads, which could be significantly undercounted as Americans turn more to at-home tests that go unreported to county health officials. Case counts may also have been affected by reporting delays over the Memorial Day weekend.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/06/world/covid-19-mandates-vaccine-cases
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, a crewless, floating liquefied natural gas bomb, run entirely by a programmed computer!
Despite the PR release by Hyundai, I’ll bet that there was a crew onboard, at least until it left US waters and for crossing the Panama canal.
Still run by a human programmed computer! What could possibly go wrong?
Massive LNG tanker sails itself across the Pacific in shipping world first
David Szondy June 05, 2022
HD Hyundai has announced that the Prism Courage, a 122,000 tonne ultra-large natural gas tanker operated by its subsidiary Avikus, has become the first large ship to make an ocean passage of over 10,000 km (6,210 miles) under autonomous control.
A ship that is capable of sailing itself isn't new. Even the smallest vessel can be equipped with an automatic pilot and it isn't uncommon to come across stories of freighters steaming into harbor without a soul aboard after being prematurely abandoned by their crews. In fact, even a sailing craft without a single bit of electronics aboard can keep a steady course if the sails are set properly and the tiller secured.
However, that is a very different thing from an autonomous ship making a passage. An automatic pilot simply allows a craft to maintain a heading and maybe it can be programmed to respond to things like GPS waypoints and currents, but an autonomous ship must be able to handle many different kinds of sensor readings and to not only make decisions about how to respond to them, but to do so in accordance with the rules of the road and maritime law.
Which brings us to the Panama-flagged Prism Courage. The ship left Freeport, Texas on May 1, 2022, then passed through the Panama Canal and crossed the Pacific Ocean to arrive at the Boryeong LNG Terminal in South Chungcheong Province, Korea, after a voyage of 33 days.
During the latter half of the journey, the ship was under the control of the autonomous navigation system HiNAS 2.0, which not only steered it, but sought out the optimal routes and best speeds based on Hyundai Global Service’s Integrated Smartship Solution (ISS) artificial intelligence. This provided navigation as well as compensation for weather and wave heights and legally avoiding passing ships by steering in real-time.
The HiNAS 2.0 system provided an increase in fuel efficiency of 7 percent and a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of 5 percent. In addition, it was able to locate and avoid other ships over 100 times. During the voyage, the Prism Courage was monitored by the American Bureau of Shipping (ABS) and the Korea Register of Shipping (KR) to confirm its performance and stability.
The goal is to prepare the HiNAS 2.0 for marketing by next year, after official certification.
"Avikus’ autonomous navigation technology was greatly helpful in this ocean-crossing test especially for maintaining navigating routes, autonomously changing directions, and avoiding nearby ships, which were all increasing ship crews’ work conveniences," said Captain Young-hoon Koh of the Prism Courage.
The Laws of Computer Programming
- Any given program, when running, is obsolete.
- Any given program costs more and takes longer.
- If a program is useful, it will have to be changed.
- If a program is useless, it will have to be documented.
- Any program will expand to fill available memory.
- The value of a program is proportional to the weight of its output.
- Program complexity grows until it exceeds the capabilities of the programmer who must maintain it.
- Any non-trivial program contains at least one bug.
- Undetectable errors are infinite in variety, in contrast to detectable errors, which by definition are limited.
- Adding manpower to a late software project makes it later.
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