Baltic Dry Index. 2320 -22 Brent Crude 120.36
Spot Gold 1863
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 13/06/22 World 540,571,467
Deaths 6,331,512
A stock is, for all practical purposes, a piece of paper that sits in a bank vault. Most likely you will never see it. It may or may not have an Intrinsic Value; what it is worth on any given day depends on the confluence of buyers and sellers that day. The most important thing to realize is simplistic: The stock doesn’t know you own it. All those marvelous things, or those terrible things, that you feel about a stock, or a list of stocks, or an amount of money represented by a list of stocks, all of these things are unreciprocated by the stock or the group of stocks. You can be in love if you want to, but that piece of paper doesn’t love you, and unreciprocated love can turn into masochism, narcissism, or, even worse, market losses and unreciprocated hate.
The Money Game, George J. W. Goodman aka “Adam Smith.”
It is US Fed week once again, with the Fed expected to raise its key interest rate by another 50 basis points. Some think that the Fed might go for a 75 point rate hike given last Friday’s terrible inflation number.
The bond market and the stock casinos were rocked by last Friday’s inflation data and must now face rising interest rates out to September at least, with the Fed hopelessly behind the inflation curve.
But both markets face a Fed cutting back on its bond and mortgage support programs from this month, eventually stopping them altogether.
In effect, the Fed will be draining liquidity at the same time as raising interest rates, at the same time as the US stock casinos are entering bear markets.
Well, the next few months in the casinos will be interesting, to say the least. The next Lehman gets closer from here with each passing month. Cryptos anyone?
Asia markets tumble; Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong drop more than 2% as tech stocks fall
SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia tumbled on Monday, as major markets in the region saw sharp losses of more than 2% amid a tech sell-off.
The Nikkei 225 in Japan dropped 2.8%, and shares of conglomerate SoftBank Group fell more than 4%. The Topix index was lower by 2.17%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index also shed 2.46%. Tencent shares fell 2.67% while Alibaba dropped 4.5%, the Hang Seng Tech index traded 2.67% lower.
South Korea’s Kospi fell 2.75%, led by tech shares like Samsung Electronics which declined 2.19% while Kakao dipped 3.87%.
In Taiwan, the Taiex fell 2.4% and TSMC’s stock slipped 2.45%.
The Shanghai Composite in mainland China declined about 0.5%, while the Shenzhen Component was flat.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded close to 2% lower.
The losses in Asia came as U.S. Treasury yields rose in the morning of Asia trading hours. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield climbed to 3.195% while the yield on the 2-year Treasury surged to 3.181%.
Markets in Australia are closed on Monday for a holiday
Later this week, a slew of Chinese economic data including industrial production and retail sales for May will be out on Wednesday.
The U.S. Fed is also expected to announce its interest rate decision later this week. It comes after Friday’s hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation numbers for May.
“For markets, the implication that US inflation has not peaked; and that it seems to playing peek(peak)-a-boo; directly puts the US Fed in a bigger bind, committed to larger magnitude of rate hikes possibly for a longer period,” Lavanya Venkateswaran, an economist at Mizuho Bank, wrote in a Monday note.
“Importantly, it is also still not clear when it will due to numerous factors, including Ukraine-Russia tensions and China digging its heel into a ‘zero covid’ policy, which will continue to put upside pressure on food and energy prices while keeping supply chains constrained.”
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/13/asia-markets-china-economy-us-federal-reserve-currencies-oil.html
Crypto lending firm Celsius pauses withdrawals and transfers, citing market conditions
by Frank Chaparro June 12, 2022, 10:19PM EDT
Crypto lending firm Celsius said Sunday that it would pause withdrawals on its platform, citing market conditions as the price of Ether and other cryptocurrencies tumbled.
The firm, which sources told The Block earlier in the week only had a few more weeks worth of financial resources to support customer withdrawals, took to Twitter to announce the suspension of withdrawals, transfers, and swaps, noting:
"@CelsiusNetwork is pausing all withdrawals, Swap, and transfers between accounts. Acting in the interest of our community is our top priority. Our operations continue and we will continue to share information with the community."
Led by Alex Mashinsky, the firm reportedly had about $12 billion in customer assets as of May across 1.7 million users, as reported by the Financial Times.
In a note to clients, Celsius added:
Due to extreme market conditions, today we are announcing that Celsius is pausing all withdrawals...We are taking this action today to put Celsius in a better position to honor, over time, its withdrawal obligations."
The price of Celsius's native token Celsius token fell sharply on the news, falling 45% to $0.21 per coin.
The development represents the latest sign of market stress in the crypto sector. The price of ether tumbled below $1,400 a coin Sunday evening.
Last week, The Block reported that BlockFi, another lending firm, was raising a round at a valuation of $1 billion—well below the $5 billion valuation it was reportedly raising at in 2021.
Now back to Asia.
In 'miracle' city Shenzhen, fears for China's economic future
June 12, 2022 11:31 PM GMT+1 Last Updated 7 hours ago
SHENZHEN, China, June 13 (Reuters) - David Fong made his way from a poor village in central China to the southern boomtown of Shenzhen as a young man in 1997. Over the next 25 years he worked for a succession of overseas manufacturers before building his own multi-million dollar business making everything from schoolbags to toothbrushes.
Now 47, he has plans to branch out internationally by building internet-connected consumer devices. But after two years of coronavirus lockdowns that have pushed up the price of shipping and battered consumers' confidence, he worries if his business will survive at all.
----Fong's story of rags to riches, now threatened by a wider slowdown worsened by the coronavirus, mirrors that of his adopted city.
Created in 1979 in the first wave of China's economic reforms, which allowed private enterprise to play a role in the state-controlled system, Shenzhen transformed itself from a collection of agricultural villages into a major world port that is home to some of China's leading technology, finance, real estate and manufacturing companies.
For the last four decades, the city posted at least 20% annual economic growth. As recently as October, forecasting firm Oxford Economics predicted that Shenzhen would be the world's fastest-growing city between 2020 and 2022.
But it has since lost that crown to San Jose in California's Silicon Valley. Shenzhen posted overall economic growth of only 2% in the first quarter of this year, the lowest-ever figure for the city, aside from the first quarter of 2020 when the first wave of coronavirus infections brought the country to a standstill.
Shenzhen remains China's biggest goods exporter, but its overseas shipments fell nearly 14% in March, hampered by a COVID lockdown that caused bottlenecks at its port.
----If Shenzhen is in trouble, that is a warning sign for the world's second-largest economy. The city is "the canary in the mine shaft," said Richard Holt, director of global cities research at Oxford Economics, adding that his team is keeping a close eye on Shenzhen.
More
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/miracle-city-shenzhen-fears-chinas-economic-future-2022-06-12/
Mass COVID testing announced for Beijing district amid 'ferocious' outbreak
June 12, 2022 11:58 AM GMT+1
BEIJING, June 12 (Reuters) - Beijing's most populous district Chaoyang announced three rounds of mass testing to quell a "ferocious" COVID-19 outbreak that emerged at a bar in a nightlife and shopping area last week, shortly after the city relaxed curbs imposed during an outbreak in April.
City health officials said that so far there have been 166 confirmed cases linked to the outbreak that began at the Heaven Supermarket bar in the Sanlitun area on Thursday, 145 of them bar patrons.
Mass testing would take place between Monday and Wednesday in Chaoyang district, where the bar is located, officials told a press briefing.
The overall numbers of cases and deaths from the pandemic remain extremely low in China compared with many countries around the world.
But even as much of the world has relaxed curbs, Chinese authorities maintain their zero-COVID policy, trying to stamp out outbreaks early with measures including heavy restrictions on movement and mass testing.
Xu Hejian, Beijing city government spokesman, told Sunday's briefing that the current outbreak in the capital is "ferocious".
"At present, the risk of a further spread still exists. The most urgent task at the moment is to trace the source of the cluster and also manage and control the risks," he said, adding Beijing must prevent the emergence of "epidemic amplifiers".
Two buildings housing hundreds of residents in one Chaoyang compound were put under strict lockdown on Sunday after a single positive case, a residential committee worker told Reuters.
More
S.Korea union truckers continue strike, talks at a standstill
June 12, 2022 5:17 AM GMT+1
SEOUL, June 12 (Reuters) - South Korean truckers were on strike for a sixth day on Sunday after talks with the government failed to make progress over their demands for higher pay, crippling cargo transport at the country's industrial hubs and major ports.
Transport ministry officials met for more than 10 hours with union leaders on Saturday for a third round of negotiations, urging them to return to work, but the two sides failed to narrow their differences, the ministry said.
A union official said he did not know whether talks would continue. The ministry said it will continue to hold talks with the union, without elaborating.
One senior union official from the Busan region said local heads of unions across the country's 16 regions were gathering on Sunday to discuss their next steps.
South Korea is a major supplier of semiconductors, smartphones, autos, batteries and electronics goods. The strike has deepened uncertainty over global supply chains already disrupted by China's strict COVID-19 curbs and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
As ports worldwide struggle with supply bottlenecks, slowdowns in chips, petrochemicals and autos threaten South Korea's mainstay exports, and consumer inflation in Asia's fourth-biggest economy is at a 14-year high. read more
Protesting against soaring fuel prices and demanding minimum pay guarantees, some 100 unionised truckers gathered on Sunday at the main gate of an enormous Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) factory complex in the southern city of Ulsan, a union official said. Hundreds more were expected to join on Monday, he said. read more
----Some 6,600 truckers, or 30% of the Cargo Truckers Solidarity union members, were on strike on Saturday, the ministry said, halting trucking activities at petrochemical complexes in Ulsan and slowing steel product deliveries for steelmaking giant POSCO (005490.KS).
The union says the number of strikers was higher, without specifying a number, and that non-union truckers were also choosing not to work.
More
Finally, Ukraine grain exports trickle out but at what cost? With another crop in the ground, albeit much smaller than last years, a harvest and storage crisis is fast approaching from August.
Ukraine grain exports via Poland, Romania face bottlenecks, deputy foreign minister says
June 12, 202212:16 PM GMT+1
SINGAPORE, June 12 (Reuters) - Ukraine has established two routes through Poland and Romania to export grain and avert a global food crisis although bottlenecks have slowed the supply chain, Kyiv's deputy foreign minister said on Sunday.
Dmytro Senik said global food security was at risk because Russia's invasion of Ukraine had halted Kyiv's Black Sea grain exports, causing widespread shortages and soaring prices.
Ukraine is the world's fourth-largest grain exporter and it says there are some 30 million tonnes of grain stored in Ukrainian-held territory which it is trying to export via road, river and rail. read more
Ukraine was in talks with Baltic states to add a third corridor for food exports, Senik said.
He did not give details on how much grain has already moved or would be moved through these routes.
"Those routes are not perfect because it creates certain bottlenecks, but we are doing our best to develop those routes in the meantime," he told Reuters on the sidelines of an Asian security summit in Singapore.
The Ukrainian rail system operates on a different gauge from European neighbours such as Poland, so the grain has to be transferred to different trains at the border where there are not many transfer or storage facilities.
Re-routing grain to Romania involves transport by rail to ports on the Danube river and loading cargoes onto barges for sailing towards the port of Constanta, a complex and costly process. read more
More
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Why Marriott, Hilton and Hyatt say hotel prices are only going up
Published Sat, Jun 11 2022 10:32 AM EDT
Despite high inflation, a softening economy, and fears of a recession, the hotel industry is not seeing any slowdown.
It’s the exact opposite, with Hilton CEO Chris Nassetta predicting that the hotel chain will “have the biggest summer we’ve ever seen in our 103-year history this summer.”
Few industries were hit as hard as travel by the Covid-19 pandemic, which curbed nearly all leisure and business travel plans. But as vaccination rates and loosened restrictions have spread across the country, travelers have returned. In May, global leisure and business flights topped 2019 levels for the first time since the pandemic started.
But while that has come with a cost, driven by both the high level of demand from fellow travelers as well as other inflationary pressures, hotel operators still believe there is room to further increase prices.
“The price has gone up for everything, so we’re not different than when you go to a gas pump or the grocery store or any other aspect of life; it’s discretionary,” Nassetta said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Monday.
Nassetta said that two things were keeping demand high: the leisure consumer’s more than $2.5 trillion in incremental savings, and strong corporate balance sheets paired with “very good” profitability.
“They’ve gone two years both from a leisure point of view and a business point of view with meetings and events without being able to do the things that they need to do,” he said. “They have the availability of discretionary income in both segments to do it and they have the need, and that is being matched with demand.”
Marriott CEO Tony Capuano said that over Memorial Day weekend the company’s revenue per available room, which measures hotel performance, was up about 25% in 2022 compared to 2019. In Marriott’s luxury portfolio, which includes hotels like JW Marriott, Ritz-Carlton, and St. Regis, those hotels saw nearly a 30% increase in rates in the first quarter of 2022 compared to 2019.
“I think as long as we’re delivering on service, which can be challenged in markets where labor is difficult, we continue to see really remarkable pricing,” Capuano said on “Closing Bell” on Monday. He did note that while there was “exceedingly strong rate potential” in places like leisure destinations and coastal destinations, that the “middle of the country, some of the urban markets have not come back as quickly.”
Another possible boost to demand could come as the Biden administration has now dropped Covid-19 testing requirements for air travelers from abroad.
More
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Study: Pfizer Vaccine Increases Myocarditis Threefold
BY Joseph Mercola TIME June 10, 2022
A large study from Israel investigated the effects of the COVID shot on cardiovascular disease risk. The results will surprise you.
STORY AT-A-GLANCE
- A large study from Israel revealed that the Pfizer COVID-19 mRNA jab is associated with a threefold increased risk of myocarditis, leading to the condition at a rate of one to five events per 100,000 persons
- Other elevated risks were also identified following the COVID jab, including lymphadenopathy (swollen lymph nodes), appendicitis and herpes zoster infection
- When myocarditis occurs, it reduces your heart’s ability to pump and can cause rapid or abnormal heart rhythms that can be deadly
- In severe cases, myocarditis can cause permanent damage to the heart muscle and lead to heart failure, heart attack, stroke and sudden cardiac death
- Due to the risk of myocarditis, Britain’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunization (JCVI) recommended against COVID-9 injections for healthy 12- to 15-year-olds
As the mass administration of COVID-19 jabs continues, we’re now seeing some of the more common side effects emerging. Myocarditis, or inflammation of the heart muscle, is among them. This condition can cause symptoms similar to a heart attack, including chest pain, shortness of breath, abnormal heartbeat and fatigue.[1]
A large study from Israel[2] revealed that the Pfizer COVID-19 mRNA jab is associated with a threefold increased risk of myocarditis,[3] leading to the condition at a rate of one to five excess events per 100,000 persons.[4] Other elevated risks were also identified following the COVID jab, including lymphadenopathy (swollen lymph nodes), appendicitis and herpes zoster infection.[5]
More
https://www.theepochtimes.com/study-pfizer-vaccine-increases-myocarditis-threefold_4526616.html
Doctors Suing Food and Drug Administration Over Ivermectin
By June 6, 2022 Updated: June 6, 2022
A Washington law firm has filed a federal lawsuit against the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for interfering with the use of ivermectin as a treatment for COVID-19.
The lawsuit was filed by Boyden Gray & Associates on behalf of three doctors who were disciplined for prescribing human-grade ivermectin to patients.
The firm’s founder, attorney Boyden Gray, is a former legal adviser to the Reagan and Bush administrations.
Gray told The Epoch Times that the FDA had violated well-established law that allows doctors to prescribe an FDA-approved drug as an off-label treatment.
Ivermectin was no different, he said. It was approved by the FDA in 1966.
“Congress recognized the importance of letting doctors be doctors and expressly prohibited the FDA from interfering with the practice of medicine,” Gray said.
“That is exactly what the FDA has done time and time again throughout this pandemic, assuming authority it doesn’t have and trying to insert itself in the medical decisions of Americans everywhere.”
The three plaintiffs in the case are Dr. Paul Marik of Virginia, Dr. Mary Bowden of Texas, and Dr. Robert Apter of Arizona.
Marik is a founder of the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care 21 Alliance (FLCCC), a national nonprofit that promotes alternative COVID-19 treatments to the government-touted vaccine.
“The FDA has made public statements on ivermectin that have been misleading and have raised unwarranted concern over a critical drug in preventing and treating COVID-19,” Marik told The Epoch Times. “To do this is to ignore both statutory limits on the FDA’s authority and the significant body of scientific evidence from peer-reviewed research.”
According to Marik, more than 80 medical trials conducted since the outbreak of COVID-19 show that ivermectin is a safe and effective treatment for the virus.
Gray said the FDA has engaged in unlawful interference with the use of ivermectin and should be held accountable for that.
The lawsuit included several statements made by the FDA that Gray said show that the administration interfered with the use of ivermectin.
They include an Aug. 21, 2021, Twitter post by the agency: “You are not a horse. You are not a cow. Seriously, y’all. Stop it.”
The post, with an image of a horse and a doctor, has a headline that reads, “Why you should not use ivermectin to treat or prevent COVID-19.”
Marik, Bowden, and Apter are among a number of U.S. doctors across the United States who have been disciplined for prescribing ivermectin.
Marik, a critical care specialist, was suspended by Sentara Norfolk General Hospital for prescribing ivermectin as a COVID-19 treatment. Bowden, an ear, nose, and throat specialist, was suspended from the Houston Medical Hospital. Apter was under investigation by both the Washington Medical Commission and Arizona Medical Board for prescribing ivermectin.
Marik was recently informed that he was under investigation by the medical licensing board in Virginia.
More
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Multi-Gigawatt Solar from the Middle East
By David Waterworth June 10, 2022
Azerbaijan has announced a partnership with UAE-based developer Masdar for 1 gigawatt (GW) each of solar and onshore wind, with 2 GW on integrated offshore wind plus green hydrogen production — marking the first offshore wind in the Caspian Sea. This first 4 GW can potentially scale to 10 GW. This Masdar–Azerbaijan agreement also covers “measures to study and strengthen the network and implement processes for the export of electricity.” This will mean multi-GW solar from the Middle East.
The most interesting aspect of this Azerbaijan deal is the green hydrogen production in a country which is a mid-ranking gas exporter economically and geographically close to gigantic gas exporter Russia — surely one of the last places to finally ditch natural gas in the coming decades. Other fossil fuel exporting countries such as the Gulf States and Russia itself have been slack with their renewables development, but Azerbaijan’s output is smaller, and its rising domestic demand has seen it import gas from Russia in order to maintain its westward exports. One of Masdar’s Azeri partners is the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR), which in 2021 signed a co-operation agreement with Technip Energies concerning a floating offshore wind pilot project.
Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov explained, “These 4,000 MW solar, wind and green hydrogen projects provide ample opportunities for the development of Azerbaijan as a green growth country, green energy producer and exporter, as well as allow for involving multibillion-dollar green investment.” Azerbaijan has received some European finance for its renewables already — $51 million for the 230 MW Garadagh Solar plant from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
The UAE’s Masdar and Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power have played leading roles in agreements throughout the region, stretching as far as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, with Masdar having a target of 50 GW of renewable capacity by 2030. ACWA Power is behind a $300 million wind farm mentioned by President Ilham Aliyev in remarks delivered in February, during which the country’s new hydropower projects also merited mention — including a project which due to location requires Iran’s co-operation.
The green hydrogen segment of the Azerbaijan deal serves as a reminder of the 30 GW of green hydrogen powered by 45 GW of renewables proposed in Kazakhstan by Svevind, which entered an MoU with Kazakh Invest National Company a year ago. Svevind stated it expected a development timeframe of three to five years, and in December it signed a contract with ILF Consulting Engineers and Roland Berger concerning a Concept Design Study for its then 20 GW, 2-million-ton green hydrogen complex vision. Azerbaijan’s offshore wind will take longer than Kazakhstan’s onshore renewables but could surely be built by 2030.
More
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/06/10/multi-gigawatt-solar-from-the-middle-east/
“The problem with fiat money is that it rewards the minority that can handle money, but fools the generation that has worked and saved money.”
“Adam Smith” aka George Goodman. The Money Game.
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