Thursday 20 January 2022

Talking Ourselves Into War.

Baltic Dry Index. 1570 -74   Brent Crude 88.27

Spot Gold 1839

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 20/01/22 World 339,486,325

Deaths 5,583,850

Milton Friedman once put it, if you’re spending your own money on yourself, you care about price and quality. If you’re spending someone else’s money on yourself, you only care about quality. If you’re spending your own money on someone else, you care only about price. And if you’re spending someone else’s money on someone else, you don’t care about either.

Did the USA just talk itself into war with Russia?

It’s hard to say given President Biden’s speech yesterday. Surprisingly, President Biden put a “do nothing much” option on the table, though team Biden later desperately tried to row back from that option. 

Needless to say, that option completely blindsided his NATO allies.  Shades of Afghanistan August 2021 again.

How that speech will be interpreted in Moscow is now crucial. A green light for a modest punitive raid?  A toothless tiger growling far bigger than its bite? A go for broke full invasion sending the price of oil, natural gas and gold soaring, bankrupting many European firms and pensioners?

Given how team Biden has just talked the USA into a no win, put up or shut up corner, is there any point to Friday’s USA – Russia talks in Geneva on Friday? Any US concessions will now be seen as a cave in by allies and enemies alike.

But without concessions on Russia’s red lines, war now seems almost inevitable. Look away from the gold price now.

Biden sees Russia moving on Ukraine, sows doubt on Western response

WASHINGTON/KYIV, Jan 20 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden predicted on Wednesday that Russia will make a move on Ukraine, saying Russia would pay dearly for a full-scale invasion but suggesting there could be a lower cost for a "minor incursion."

Biden's comments at a White House news conference injected uncertainty into how the West would respond should Russian President Vladimir Putin order an invasion of Ukraine, prompting the White House later to seek to clarify what Biden meant.

"My guess is he will move in," Biden said of Putin at a news conference. "He has to do something."

"Russia will be held accountable if it invades - and it depends on what it does. It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and we end up having to fight about what to do and what to not do, et cetera," Biden said. "But if they actually do what they're capable of doing ... it is going to be a disaster for Russia if they further invade Ukraine."

Russian officials have repeatedly denied planning to invade, but the Kremlin has massed some 100,000 troops near Ukraine's borders, a buildup the West says is preparation for a war to prevent Ukraine from ever joining the NATO Western security alliance.

Shortly after the nearly two-hour news conference ended, the White House stressed any Russian military move into Ukraine would elicit a tough response.

"If any Russian military forces move across the Ukrainian border, that's a renewed invasion, and it will be met with a swift, severe, and united response from the United States and our allies," said White House press secretary Jen Psaki.

But cyberattacks and paramilitary tactics by Russia "will be met with "a decisive, reciprocal, and united response," she said.

The U.S. State Department has cleared Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia to send U.S.-made missiles and other weapons to Ukraine, three sources familiar with the decision said. read more

The third-party transfer agreements will allow Estonia to transfer Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, while Lithuania will be permitted to send Stinger missiles, said one of the sources.

Republicans expressed concern about Biden's remarks.

"Any incursion by the Russian military into Ukraine should be viewed as a major incursion because it will destabilize Ukraine and freedom-loving countries in Eastern Europe," said Republican Senator Rob Portman.

Biden said a third summit with Putin "is still a possibility" after the two leaders met twice last year. He said he was concerned that a Ukraine conflict could have broader implications and "could get out of hand."

More

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/blinken-says-russian-attack-ukraine-could-come-very-short-notice-2022-01-19/

Back in the stock casinos, still no one expects a new European war. But, it might be time to buy a few March index put options, just in case.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumps 2% as China cuts key lending rates; property, tech stocks soar

SINGAPORE — Markets in Asia-Pacific were mixed on Thursday as China cut its key lending rates. Meanwhile, Wall Street fell with the Nasdaq closing in correction territory and U.S. yields retreating from their recent gains.

Mainland China markets rose, with the Shanghai composite near the flatline, and the Shenzhen component up 0.35%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index jumped 2.18%.

China on Thursday cut its one-year loan prime rate by 10 basis points, while its five-year LPR, which influences the pricing of home mortgages, was cut by 5 basis points, the first time since April 2020.

Stocks of Chinese property firms, which have been reeling under a debt crisis in the country, responded. The Hang Seng Properties index jumped 1.84%, as Sunac surged more than 10%, while Shimao also jumped more than 10% and Country Garden topped 7%.

The rate cuts continue the PBOC’s efforts to push down borrowing costs, according to Capital Economics.

“Mortgages will now be slightly cheaper which should help shore up housing demand. The PBOC has already pushed banks to increase the volume of mortgage lending,” Sheana Yue, China economist at the firm, said in a note after the announcement.

“Targeted support for property buyers does appear to be limiting one of the more severe downside risks facing the economy,” Yue added.

Tech stocks in Hong Kong also jumped, with the Hang Seng Tech index rising more than 3%. Tencent surged 4.25%, Alibaba jumped 4.35%, and Meituan soared 6%.

Other Asia-Pacific markets

Japan’s Nikkei 225 also jumped, climbing 1%, while the Topix was also up nearly 1%. Sony rose nearly 4%, after tumbling over 12% the day before after Microsoft on Tuesday said it was buying video game publisher Activision Blizzard for almost $69 billion.

Trade data on Thursday showed that Japan’s exports rose 17.5% in December compared to the year before — higher than the 16% expected in a Reuters poll, according to Reuters.

Elsewhere, South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.35%, while Australia’s ASX 200 was down 0.24%.

Bond yields retreat from highs

On Wall Street overnight, the Nasdaq Composite fell again Wednesday, dipping 1.15% to 14,340.26. That brought its decline from its November high to more than 10% as investors continue to dump tech shares as interest rates spike.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 339.82 points to 35,028.65, dragged down by a 3.1% decline in Caterpillar’s stock. The S&P 500 slid nearly 1% to 4,532.76.

More

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/20/asia-pacific-stocks-china-loan-prime-rate-nasdaq-oil.html

Next oil news. With the global economy still dependent on oil and far from a green electric economy, this can’t be good news for stable oil prices.

Oil refining capacity fell for first time in 30 years in 2021, IEA says

Reuters 

LONDON, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Global oil refining capacity fell for the first time in 30 years last year, as new capacity was outweighed by closures, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil market report on Wednesday.

Refining capacity was down by 730,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, the IEA said, but net additions were expected to amount to 1.2 million bpd in 2022.

Global runs are forecast to rise by 3.7 million bpd in 2022, the IEA added. Refinery throughput averaged 79.8 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2021, it added.

Over the last two years, about 900,000 bpd of refining capacity in Asia (excluding China) has been either shut or scheduled to permanently close before the end of 2022, the IEA said.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-refining-capacity-fell-first-time-30-years-2021-iea-says-2022-01-19/

IEA Sees Tighter Oil Market as Demand Withstands Omicron Wave

Wed, January 19, 2022, 9:00 AM

(Bloomberg) -- Global oil markets look tighter than previously thought as demand suffers surprisingly little impact from the latest coronavirus strain while supplies are curbed by disruptions, the International Energy Agency said.

The surplus facing world markets this year is shrinking, with oil demand -- slightly upgraded from last month -- on track to hit pre-pandemic levels of 99.7 million barrels a day, the IEA said in its monthly report. At the same time, supplies have been restricted as the OPEC+ coalition struggles to revive halted output and producers elsewhere suffer a range of disruptions, thinning the margin of spare capacity.

The more bullish outlook from the Paris-based agency comes just hours after crude prices climbed to a seven-year high above $89 a barrel in London. The rally is proving a challenge for consuming nations and central banks as they try to stimulate the economic recovery while fending off an inflationary spike and cost-of-living crisis.

The IEA, which advises most major economies, raised projections for global oil demand by 200,000 barrels a day for both 2021 and 2022. Consumption will increase by 5.5 million barrels a day and 3.3 barrels million a day, respectively.

“Covid-19 is once again causing record infections. But this time around, the surge is having a more muted impact on oil use,” the IEA said.

As demand recovers, the supply situation grows more tenuous. The 23-nation OPEC+ coalition led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, which has been restoring production halted during the pandemic, managed only 60% of its planned increase in December, the agency said. Nigeria, Angola, Malaysia and even Russia are struggling with capacity constraints.

As OPEC+ tries to restore its remaining offline output, the coalition’s spare production capacity -- a shock absorber in case of disruptions -- could diminish to 3 million barrels a day, from about 5 million a day currently, the IEA said. That could leave the market vulnerable to price volatility, even as output grows sharply in the U.S., Canada and Brazil, it said.

The cartel’s outages intensified on Tuesday, as a crucial pipeline from Iraq to Turkey was briefly halted by an explosion -- a reminder of how critical spare production capacity can be to maintaining steady oil flows.

Other sources of cover in emergencies are also reduced, with fuel inventories in developed nations sinking by 6.1 million barrels in November to a seven-year low, the agency said.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/iea-sees-tighter-oil-market-090000067.html

Oil prices hover around 2014 highs, supported by supply concerns

SINGAPORE, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Oil steadied on Thursday, clawing back losses earlier in the session, as strong demand and short-term supply disruptions continue to support prices close to their highest levels since late 2014.

Brent crude futures fell 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $88.27 a barrel, as of 0418 GMT, having dropped more than $1 earlier in the session. The global benchmark touched $89.17 a barrel on Wednesday, its highest since October 2014.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 7 cents, or 0.1%, to stand at $87.03 a barrel, having also shed nearly $1 earlier. WTI climbed to as much as $87.91 on Wednesday, the highest since October 2014.

"The International Energy Agency said global oil demand is on track to hit pre-pandemic levels," analysts at ANZ bank said in a note.

"Shorter-term supply disruptions are also helping tighten markets. Brent crude rallied sharply after reports a key oil pipeline running from Iraq to Turkey was knocked out by an explosion."

However, the flow of crude oil through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline has resumed, after it was halted on Tuesday due to a blast near the pipeline in the southeastern Turkish province of Kahramanmaras, officials said on Wednesday. read more

Supply concerns have mounted this week after Yemen's Houthi group attacked the United Arab Emirates, the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Meanwhile Russia, the world's second-largest oil producer, has built up a large troop presence near Ukraine's border, stoking fears of invasion and subsequent supply uncertainties.

Underpinning oil prices is the broad post-coronavirus pandemic recovery in demand for fuel.

OPEC officials and analysts say that an oil rally may continue in the next few months, and prices could top $100 a barrel as demand shrugs of the spread of the Omicron COVID-19 variant.

More

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-ease-2014-high-supply-concerns-limit-losses-2022-01-20/

Finally, China. China is about to give its financially distressed property developers access to spend client escrow funds!  Presumably, Chinese authorities think this is wise. I have serious doubts this is wise. Remind me again of why we escrow client funds.

EXCLUSIVE China drafts rules to give property developers more access to escrow funds - sources

HONG KONG, Jan 19 (Reuters) - China is drafting nationwide rules to make it easier for property developers to access funds from sales still held in escrow accounts in its latest move to ease a severe cash crunch in the sector, four people with knowledge of the matter said.

Regulatory curbs on borrowing have driven the sector into crisis, highlighted by China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) which was once China's top-selling developer but is now the world's most indebted property firm with liabilities of $300 billion.

The new rules would help developers meet debt obligations, pay suppliers and finance operations by letting them use the funds in escrow that are currently controlled by municipal governments with no central oversight, the people said on condition of anonymity due to sensitivity of the matter.

"An abrupt clampdown on escrow accounts by local authorities after Evergrande's crash choked liquidity for some good quality names. A correction by the central government is much needed," said Nan Li, associate professor of finance at Shanghai Jiao Tong University.

Chinese developers are allowed to sell residential projects before completing them but are required to put those funds in escrow accounts. The cash held in escrow typically accounts for 50% to 70% of developers' pre-sale funds, one of the people said, without giving an estimate on the amount held.

Guided by the cabinet-level Financial stability and Development Committee, the sector's main regulator the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other authorities are drafting the new rules, three of the people said.

Beijing aims to roll them out as early as end of January in a push to prevent a wider crisis, the people said.

More

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/exclusive-china-drafts-rules-ease-property-developers-use-escrow-funds-sources-2022-01-19/

In any great organization it is far, far safer to be wrong with the majority than to be right alone.

John Kenneth Galbraith.

 

Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

UK inflation rate soars to 30-year high as cost pressures continue

Published Wed, Jan 19 2022 2:07 AM EST

LONDON — The U.K. inflation rate soared to a 30-year high in December as higher energy costs, resurgent demand and supply chain issues continued to drive up consumer prices.

Inflation hit an annual 5.4%, its highest since March 1992 and up from 5.1% in November, itself a decade high. Economists polled by Reuters had expected an increase of 5.2%.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.5%, outstripping economist projections for a 0.3% climb.

The surging cost of living is raising expectations that the Bank of England will look to hike interest rates again. In December, the BOE became the first major central bank to begin lifting borrowing costs from their pandemic-era lows.

Markets will be closely watching the Monetary Policy Committee’s next meeting on Feb. 3, with policymakers considering another rate increase following the 15-basis-point hike to 0.25% in December.

The Bank is also operating against the backdrop of a remarkably tight labor market, with vacancies tracking at a record high and employment remaining below its pre-pandemic level.

Paul Craig, portfolio manager at Quilter Investors, said December’s print vindicated the Bank of England’s decision to hike rates, but February’s meeting could still go either way.

“The MPC will be faced with a difficult trade-off between ensuring financial stability or helping households cope with a cost of living crisis that is set to squeeze household finances over a difficult winter period,” he said.

“It’s not just the cost of living that is increasing, so is the cost of going to work, and wage increases may not be enough to cover the cost of returning to normality.”

The Office for National Statistics also published figures on Tuesday which showed annual wage growth at 3.8% in December, indicating that workers are facing a real-terms pay decline, and Craig suggested there is now a “very real concern” that in-work poverty is growing.

More

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/19/uk-inflation-rate-soars-to-30-year-high-as-cost-pressures-continue.html

German 10-year bond yield trades in positive territory for the first time since May 2019

Published Wed, Jan 19 2022 2:20 AM EST

Borrowing costs for the German government continued their push higher on Wednesday, with the benchmark 10-year bund yield trading in positive territory for the first time in nearly three years.

May 2019 was the last time that German 10-year yields were above zero, when accommodative policy from the European Central Bank started to pressure interest rates lower. Negative yields meant that investors were effectively paying the German government to lend it money.

The ECB is currently behind on its normalization path, compared to the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, but surging inflation and wider moves in the global bond market have now helped to push yields above zero.

Euro zone inflation hit a new record high in December, raising more questions about the ECB’s monetary policy. The central bank said last month that it would be cutting its monthly asset purchases, but vowed to continue its unprecedented level of stimulus in 2022.

Central bank policy in times of financial stress usually focuses on the bond market. The central banks buy up sovereign bonds, reducing their yields, which then lowers the cost of borrowing for the government and also lowers interest rates for all sorts of loans and mortgages.

But the bounceback from the coronavirus pandemic has seen consumer prices soar amid this easy policy. And now central banks are looking to unwind their stimulus to try to cool down inflation. The Bank of England has already hiked rates by 15 basis points.

Commenting on yields, James Athey, senior investment manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments, told CNBC Wednesday that the market currently had the “bit between it’s teeth.”

“Bonds yields everywhere are in the crosshairs. It’s very much not being led by Europe ... I don’t think we are looking at a Eurocentric repricing here. It’s more of just the usual correlation we see between government bond markets and the big move higher we’re seeing in Treasury yields,” he said.

More

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/19/bunds-german-10-year-bind-yield-trades-in-positive-territory-.html

Big U.S. banks see higher expenses from workers' rising wages

By Elizabeth Dilts Marshall

NEW YORK, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Big U.S. banks will spend more on salaries and benefits this year, as inflationary pressures, pandemic risks and the tight labor market force them to raise wages to get and keep workers.

The nation's six biggest banks - JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), Bank of America (BAC.N), Citigroup (C.N), Wells Fargo & Co , Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) - have taken steps to raise some workers' wages in 2021 and several raised expense projections for the coming year.

"We are seeing certainly fierce competition in the war for talent, and that's playing out in wage inflation," Emily Portney, chief financial officer for Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK.N), told Reuters in an interview after reporting fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday. read more

Portney said wages are rising even at the lower pay scales.

The cut-throat competition has forced investment banks and wealth managers like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of New York Mellon and Goldman Sachs to pay more to recruit and keep talent in some of its most lucrative jobs. read more

Goldman on Tuesday reported a 23% increase in fourth-quarter operating expenses, mainly due to higher compensation and benefits costs. In August, Goldman followed rival banks in raising pay for second-year analysts and first-year associates to $125,000 and $150,000.

"There is real wage inflation everywhere in the economy, everywhere," said Goldman's Chief Executive David Solomon.

More

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/big-us-banks-see-higher-expenses-workers-rising-wages-2022-01-19/

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Today, the W.H.O.’s mixed messages.

The modeller’s takeover Covid Project Fear. Cui bono?

WHO says no evidence healthy children, adolescents need COVID-19 boosters

Jan 18 (Reuters) - There is no evidence at present that healthy children and adolescents need booster doses of COVID-19 vaccine, the World Health Organization's chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan said on Tuesday.

Speaking at a news briefing, she said that while there seems to be some waning of vaccine immunity over time against the rapidly spreading Omicron variant of the coronavirus, more research needs to be done to ascertain who needs booster doses.

"There is no evidence right now that healthy children or healthy adolescents need boosters. No evidence at all," she said.

Israel has begun offering boosters to children as young as 12, and the U.S. States Food and Drug Administration earlier this month authorized the use of a third dose of the Pfizer (PFE.N) and BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 12 to 15.

Last week Germany became the latest country to recommend that all children between ages of 12 and 17 receive a COVID-19 booster shot. Hungary has also done so.

Swaminathan said the WHO's top group of experts would meet later this week to consider the specific question of how countries should consider giving boosters to their populations.

"The aim is to protect the most vulnerable, to protect those at highest risk of severe disease and dying. Those are our elderly populations, immuno-compromised people with underlying conditions, but also healthcare workers," she said.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/who-says-no-evidence-healthy-children-adolecents-need-covid-19-boosters-2022-01-18/

WHO says omicron won’t be last Covid variant as global cases surge by 20% in a week

Published Tue, Jan 18 2022 2:08 PM EST Updated Tue, Jan 18 20228 :29 PM EST

The World Health Organization on Tuesday said the pandemic will not end as the omicron variant subsides in some countries, warning the high levels of infection around the world will likely lead to new variants as the virus mutates.

“We’re hearing a lot of people suggest that omicron is the last variant, that it’s over after this. And that is not the case because this virus is circulating at a very intense level around the world,” Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s Covid-19 technical lead, said during a coronavirus update in Geneva.

New infections have increased by 20% globally over the past week with nearly 19 million total reported cases, according to the WHO. But Van Kerkhove noted that new infections that go unreported would make the real number much higher.

Dr. Bruce Aylward, a senior WHO official, warned high levels of transmission give the virus more opportunity to replicate and mutate, raising the risk that a new variant will emerge.

“We don’t fully understand the consequences of letting this thing run,” Aylward said. “Most of what we’ve seen so far in areas of uncontrolled transmission has been we paid a price for the variants that emerge and new uncertainties we have to manage as we go forward.”

More

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/18/who-says-omicron-wont-be-last-covid-variant-as-global-cases-surge-by-20percent-in-a-week.html

We have a chance to end Covid emergency in 2022, WHO official says

Published Tue, Jan 18 2022 10:13 AM EST Updated Tue, Jan 18 2022 8:30 PM EST

Covid-19 will never be eradicated, but society has a chance to end the public health emergency in 2022, a senior WHO official has said.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum’s virtual Davos Agenda event on Tuesday, Michael Ryan, executive director of the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, said.

“We won’t end the virus this year, we won’t ever end the virus — what we can end is the public health emergency,” he told a panel via videoconference.

“It’s the death, it’s the hospitalizations, it’s the disruptions that cause the tragedy, not the virus. The virus is a vehicle.”

However, he expressed some optimism that it was possible for this year to mark a turning point in the pandemic.

“Yes, we have a chance to end the public health emergency this year,” he said, noting that this could only be done by addressing longstanding inequities in various areas of society, such as fair access to vaccines and health care.

----But Ryan warned that Covid would still pose a threat to society even once it shifted from being a pandemic virus to an endemic one.

“Endemic malaria, endemic HIV kill hundreds of thousands of people every year — endemic does not mean ‘good,’ it just means ‘here forever,’” he said. “What we need to do is get to low levels of disease incidence with maximum vaccination of our populations where no one has to die. That’s the end of the emergency in my view, that’s the end of the pandemic.”

More

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/18/we-have-a-chance-to-end-covid-emergency-in-2022-who-official-says.html

UK’s second lockdown was based on ‘wildly incorrect’ Covid-19 modelling, MPs told

Wednesday 19 January 2022 9:50 am

The prime minister imposed the UK’s second lockdown based on “wildly incorrect” Covid-19 modelling which was leaked to the press, MPs have heard.

The model, from Cambridge University and Public Health England (PHE) warned of 4,000 deaths a day by the end of December.

Deputy chairman of the Covid-19 recovery group, Steve Baker advised Boris Johnson to challenge the model at the time.

A number of scientists, including professor Tim Spector of King’s College London and professor Carl Heneghan of Oxford University, were hauled in to assess the data.

“By Monday, Carl Heneghan had taken the wheels of those death projections, by which time the Prime Minister had, disgracefully, been bounced using a leak into a lockdown. This is absolutely no way to conduct public policy,” Baker told a debate at Westminster Hall on the use of models in the pandemic yesterday.

“The reality is the prime minister was shown a terrifying model which was subsequently proven to be widely incorrect but he took away freedoms from tens of millions on that basis.”

Vaccines minister Maggie Throup in response said that an inquiry into modelling should form part of the wider pandemic inquiry to ensure “lessons will be learned”.

However, what was happening in the UK, in hospitals and in other countries at the time also informed decision making in government, Throup added.  

“Modelling is helpful but it must be considered alongside what is happening to real people at home, in schools or in hospitals,” she said.

https://www.cityam.com/uks-second-lockdown-was-based-on-wildly-incorrect-covid-19-modelling-mps-told/

US faces wave of omicron deaths in coming weeks, models say

The fast-moving omicron variant may cause less severe disease on average, but COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. are climbing and modelers forecast 50,000 to 300,000 more Americans could die by the time the wave subsides in mid-March.

The seven-day rolling average for daily new COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. has been trending upward since mid-November, reaching nearly 1,700 on Jan. 17 — still below the peak of 3,300 in January 2021. COVID-19 deaths among nursing home residents started rising slightly two weeks ago, although still at a rate 10 times less than last year before most residents were vaccinated.

Despite signs omicron causes milder disease on average, the unprecedented level of infection spreading through the country, with cases still soaring in many states, means many vulnerable people will become severely sick. If the higher end of projections comes to pass, that would push total U.S. deaths from COVID-19 over 1 million by early spring.

---- But the notion that a generally less severe variant could still take the lives of thousands of people has been difficult for health experts to convey. The math of it — that a small percentage of a very high number of infections can yield a very high number of deaths — is difficult to visualize.

“Overall, you’re going to see more sick people even if you as an individual have a lower chance of being sick,” said Katriona Shea of Pennsylvania State University, who co-leads a team that pulls together several pandemic models and shares the combined projections with the White House.

The wave of deaths heading for the United States will crest in late January or early February, Shea said. In early February, weekly deaths could equal or exceed the delta peak, and possibly even surpass the previous U.S. peak in deaths last year.

Some unknown portion of these deaths are among people infected with the delta variant, but experts say omicron is also claiming lives.

More

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-omicron-covid-19-deaths-08f8db29985b992d5ef98ccfa1459eb7

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccineshttps://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Rt Covid-19

https://rt.live/

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Solar panel-covered Sun Rock will be a renewable-energy powerhouse

Adam Williams  January 18, 2022

Nobody can accuse high-profile Dutch firm MVRDV of taking a half-hearted approach to ensuring its upcoming project Sun Rock is sustainable. Most of the building will be covered with solar panels and, according to the firm, it's expected to generate around 1 million kWh of green energy annually, which will easily ensure its self-sufficient operation, with the excess sent to the grid.

Sun Rock was commissioned by Taiwan's government-owned power company Taipower and will be used as a visitor center and for the storage and maintenance of renewable energy equipment. Though most of its facade will be covered in solar panels, there will be windows and vents for natural ventilation mixed in too. To put MVRDV's figure of almost 1 million kWh of energy per year into perspective, US government studies have shown that the average US house uses around 11,000 kWh per year. And that figure could be even higher by the time it's completed.

"The site for Taipower's new facility receives a significant amount of solar exposure throughout the year, and so the rounded shape of Sun Rock is designed to maximize how much of that sunlight can be harnessed for energy," explained MVRDV. "The facade maximizes this solar potential with a series of pleats, which support photovoltaic panels (mixed in with windows, where required) on their upper surface. The angle of these pleats is adjusted on all parts of the facade to maximize the energy-generating potential of the solar panels.

"As a result of these measures, the building can support at least 4,000 square meters [roughly 43,000 sq ft] of PV panels that would generate almost 1 million kilowatt-hours of clean energy per year – an amount of energy equivalent to burning 85 tons of crude oil – and making the building completely self-sufficient. Further design options are under consideration that would add an even larger area of PV panels, with calculations showing the building could generate up to 1.7 million kWh annually to contribute energy to the grid."

The building will measure 12,900 sq m (roughly 138,000 sq ft), and contain a maintenance workshop, warehouse, and an office inside. On the first floor, a gallery space will offer the public a view onto the maintenance workshop, allowing them to see solar panels and wind turbine blades being repaired. Another gallery will be included on the top floor, while at roof level will be a tree-filled terrace for visitors and employees.

Additionally, there will also be a "Data Room" inside an atrium that will host real-time displays detailing Taipower's operations and the amount of renewable energy the company generates.

Sun Rock is due to be completed in 2024.

Source: MVRDV

https://newatlas.com/architecture/mvrdv-sun-rock-taiwan/?utm_source=New+Atlas+Subscribers&utm_campaign=a0451cd158-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_01_19_09_09&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65b67362bd-a0451cd158-90625829

“A good politician is quite as unthinkable as an honest burglar.”

H. L. Mencken.

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