Baltic Dry Index. 1415 -59 Brent Crude 88.70
Spot Gold 1837
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 24/01/22 World 352,130,696
Deaths 5,614,75
“The most successful war seldom pays for its losses.”
Thomas Jefferson.
Asian stock casinos are mostly lower this morning ahead of this week’s two day Federal Reserve meeting. US stock futures in early trading are slightly higher, betting that the Fed’s recent growling over US inflation, is just that growling, Chairman Powell and his gang won’t dare to bite.
But the casinos focus on the Fed will quickly be replaced by graver concerns if as seems highly likely to me, the USA, UK and Russia are gearing up for war over the Ukraine.
If war happens, at a minimum expect the price of oil, natural gas, wheat and corn [maize] to soar. Russia is a very large exporter of crude, natural gas and wheat. Ukraine is a large exporter of wheat and corn.
Whatever the weather, Europe and the UK will suffer eye watering heating bills this winter. A great scramble to replace the missing grain exports will get underway. Food price inflation for many, will become the dominant feature of 2022.
Asia-Pacific markets mostly lower as investors look ahead to this week’s Fed meeting
SINGAPORE — Asia-Pacific markets mostly traded lower on Monday as investors looked ahead to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting this week.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 0.11% after retracing some of its earlier losses while the Topix index was down 0.18%. In South Korea, the Kospi was down 1.53% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.92% shortly after market open.
Chinese mainland shares reversed earlier losses: The Shanghai composite rose 0.2% and the Shenzhen component added 0.56%.
In Australia, the ASX 200 fell 0.44%. The energy, materials and financial subindexes were down 0.71%, 1.42% and 0.48%, respectively as major banks, miners and oil stocks sold off. Commonwealth Bank shares, however, ticked higher 0.17%.
Indian shares also trended lower, with the Nifty 50 down 0.9% and the Sensex lower by 0.53%.
Last Friday, stocks sold off globally. Stateside, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite posted a 7.6% loss for the week, its worst since October 2020, and also more than 14% below its record close in November.
The Federal Open Market Committee is due to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday to decide on the next steps for U.S. monetary policy.
Rising inflation is a major concern for the U.S. central bank and investors will listen closely to hear how worried the Fed actually is — Chairman Jerome Powell is due to brief the media Wednesday afternoon local time after the FOMC releases its statement.
“Markets have been trading cautiously ahead of this week’s FOMC statement, which is expected to be hawkish and potentially outline the case for interest rate rises starting in March,” ANZ Research analysts wrote in a Monday morning note.
They said they are doubtful that the Fed would end quantitative easing this week as some in the market speculate.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/24/asia-markets-earnings-fed-meeting-dollar-moves.html
Bitcoin Has Lost Half Its Value Since Hitting Record High
Sat, January 22, 2022, 11:39 AM
(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin extended its decline on Saturday, and has shed more than 50% from its record high in November while adding further momentum to the meltdown in cryptocurrencies.
“Margin positions being liquidated caused a wave of additional sell pressure, as assets that had been held as collateral were forcibly sold to pay for margin loans,” said Hayden Hughes, chief executive officer at Alpha Impact in Singapore.
Bitcoin’s decline from its peak has wiped out more than $600 billion in market value, and over $1 trillion has been lost from the aggregate crypto market. While there have been much larger percentage drawdowns for both Bitcoin and the aggregate market, this marks the second-largest ever decline in dollar terms for both, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
Bitcoin fell as low as $34,042.78 Saturday, a drop of 7.2%, before paring most of those losses. Other digital assets also slid, with Ethereum down 12%. Solana and Cardano each fell at least 17%, according to Coinbase.
“I would expect it to take some time for a bottom to form and for confidence to return, before expecting any sort of bullishness,” Hughes said.
With the Federal Reserve’s intentions on reining in inflation rocking both cryptocurrencies and stocks, a dominant theme has emerged in the digital-asset space: cryptos have moved in the same way as equities and many other risk assets.
And the case for further caution was reinforced on Friday. Bloomberg News reported that the Biden administration is preparing to release an initial government-wide strategy for digital assets as soon as next month and will ask federal agencies to assessing the risks and opportunities they pose.
https://www.yahoo.com/now/bitcoin-extends-slide-fallen-more-101904421.html
In the general drift to make 2022 into a modern 1914 but with nuclear weapons, the USA and UK are gearing up to fight a proxy war with Russia.
I have my doubts it will stay proxy for very long. As in 1914, I suspect any war in the Ukraine will drag in others super-fast. As in 1914-1918, all sides will eventually use every weapon available to each side.
That this is madness should be apparent to all. But just like 1914, no one really expects serious war to break out. Austria will win a tiny regional war with Serbia. Germany, Russia, France and Great Britain will make noise and hold peace talks. All’s well that ends well.
Madness is abroad in Washington, London, Moscow and NATO’s Brussels. The other guy is going to blink first.
Finally, Bloomberg tries clutching at Olympic straws.
U.S. tells diplomats' families to leave Ukraine, weighs troop options
January 24, 2022 3:49 AM GMT
WASHINGTON/LONDON, Jan 23 (Reuters) - The U.S. State Department announced Sunday it was ordering diplomats' family members to leave Ukraine, as U.S. President Joe Biden weighed options for boosting America's military assets in Eastern Europe to counter a buildup of Russian troops.
The order, which also allowed U.S. diplomats stationed at the embassy in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv to leave voluntarily, was one of the clearest signs yet that American officials are bracing for an aggressive Russian move in the region.
"Military action by Russia could come at any time," the U.S. Embassy said in a statement. Officials "will not be in a position to evacuate American citizens in such a contingency, so U.S. citizens currently present in Ukraine should plan accordingly," it added.
Don’t Miss: Explainer - How Western economic sanctions might target Russia
Tensions in Ukraine have been increasing for months after the Kremlin massed some 100,000 troops near Ukraine's borders, a dramatic buildup the West says is preparation for a war to prevent Ukraine from ever joining the NATO Western security alliance.
The Kremlin has repeatedly denied planning to invade, but the Russian military already tore off a chunk of Ukrainian territory when it seized Crimea and backed separatist forces who took control of large parts of eastern Ukraine eight years ago.
The State Department's announcement comes a day after British authorities said they had information the Russian government was considering a former Ukrainian lawmaker as a potential candidate to head a pro-Russian leadership in Kyiv.
More
Ukraine receives second batch of U.S. weapons in Russian stand-off
January 23, 2022 8:30 PM GMT
KYIV, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Ukraine's Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said on Sunday the country had received a second consignment of weapons from the United States as part of defensive aid totalling $200 million.
Washington has said it would continue to support Ukraine amid concerns in Kyiv and among its Western allies over tens of thousands of Russian troops amassed on its border. Russia denies planning a military offensive. read more
"The second bird in Kyiv! More than 80 tons of weapons to strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities from our friends in the USA! And this is not the end," Reznikov wrote on Twitter.
About 90 tonnes of "lethal security assistance", including ammunition, from the package approved by the U.S. in December arrived in the Ukrainian capital on Saturday. read more
U.S. rebuffs sanctioning Russia now, wants to preserve deterrence
January 24, 2022 1:07 AM GMT
WASHINGTON, Jan 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday rebuffed calls to immediately impose economic sanctions on Russia, saying that doing so would undercut the West's ability to deter potential Russian aggression against Ukraine.
Russia's massing of troops near its border with Ukraine has sparked Western concerns that it may invade. If Russia does make an incursion, the West has threatened sanctions with profound economic effects. Moscow has said it has no plans to invade.
"When it comes to sanctions, the purpose of those sanctions is to deter Russian aggression. And so if they are triggered now, you lose the deterrent effect," Blinken told CNN in an interview.
Blinken said if one more Russian force entered Ukraine in an aggressive manner, that would trigger a significant response.
The United Kingdom has threatened Russia with sanctions after Britain accused the Kremlin of seeking to install a pro-Russian leader in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told the Washington Post last week he supported imposing sanctions now, a view endorsed by Republican lawmakers on Sunday.
More
Russia rejects UK claim of trying to replace Ukraine leader
MOSCOW (AP) — Russia’s Foreign Ministry on Sunday rejected a British claim that the Kremlin is seeking to replace Ukraine’s government with a pro-Moscow administration, and that former Ukrainian lawmaker Yevheniy Murayev is a potential candidate.
Britain’s Foreign Office on Saturday also named several other Ukrainian politicians it said had links with Russian intelligence services, along with Murayev who is the leader of a small party that has no seats in parliament.
Those politicians include Mykola Azarov, a former prime minister under Viktor Yanukovych, the Ukrainian president ousted in a 2014 uprising, and Yanukovych’s former chief of staff, Andriy Kluyev.
“Some of these have contact with Russian intelligence officers currently involved in the planning for an attack on Ukraine,” the Foreign Office said.
Murayev told The Associated Press via Skype that the British claim “looks ridiculous and funny” and that he has been denied entry to Russia since 2018 on the grounds of being a threat to Russian security. He said that sanction was imposed in the wake of a conflict with Viktor Medvedchuk, Ukraine’s most prominent pro-Russia politician and a friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
More
Putin would burst Xi's Olympic dream with a war in Ukraine
Published 22 Jan 2022, 2:26 pm SGT
NEW YORK (BLOOMBERG) - As the US and Europe mount increasingly frantic efforts to deter Russia from any invasion of Ukraine, it's Chinese President Xi Jinping who may have the biggest influence on Mr Vladimir Putin's timetable.
The Russian President has said he will join Mr Xi at the opening ceremony on Feb 4 of the Beijing Winter Olympics, where the Chinese leader has lavished billions of dollars to showcase his nation's superpower status to the world.
The last thing Mr Xi needs is for Mr Putin to overshadow China's big moment by triggering a global security crisis with the US and Europe.
That's especially the case given Mr Xi is looking to bolster his prestige at home as he seeks endorsement for an unprecedented third term later this year.
The nations have often had each other's backs on the global stage. They've worked in concert to block United Nations Security Council resolutions critical of either, and aligned on collective issues like North Korea.
They revelled in the messy US withdrawal from Afghanistan. And they've largely stayed neutral on actions declared to be in the other's national interest - such as Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014.
More
Finally, in the joke of the week, China blames Canada for its omicron outbreak. Well, it’s as likely as I win the Euromillions lottery on Tuesday.
Did Omicron arrive in China’s capital Beijing by mail from Canada?
· City’s first case of the Covid-19 variant received a letter from Toronto with traces of the virus, health authorities say
· Canada’s public health agency and other experts around the world say there is low risk of spreading through goods or packages
Published: 3:19pm, 17 Jan, 2022
The Omicron variant of the coronavirus could have entered the Chinese capital Beijing via contaminated mail from Canada, the city’s centre for disease control said on Monday.
Pang Xinghuo, deputy director of the Beijing Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, said the city’s first Covid-19 patient to be diagnosed with the variant had received a letter mailed from Canada on January 7.
“We do not rule out the possibility that the person was infected through contacting an object from overseas,” she said.
Chinese authorities have repeatedly said they are finding the coronavirus on contaminated imports, usually frozen goods. Some researchers and health authorities overseas have raised doubts about this method of transmission, arguing that the virus does not survive long enough on surfaces.
Pang Xinghuo, deputy director of the Beijing Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, said the city’s first Covid-19 patient to be diagnosed with the variant had received a letter mailed from Canada on January 7.
“We do not rule out the possibility that the person was infected through contacting an object from overseas,” she said.
More
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
The Fertilizer Crisis Is Getting Real for Europe Food Prices
Fri, January 21, 2022, 12:51 PM
(Bloomberg) -- As Europe’s farmers prepare to spread fertilizers on fields after winter, sky-high nutrient prices are leaving them little choice but to use less and try to pass on the cost down the food chain.
For growers of staples like corn and wheat, it’s the first time they’ve really been exposed to a fertilizer crisis fueled by an energy crunch, export curbs and trade sanctions. It now costs much more to buy chemicals needed for winter crops coming out of dormancy, and the extra expense could prompt smaller spring plantings that make up roughly a third of European grain.
Europe has been hardest hit by fertilizer-plant cutbacks on soaring costs of natural gas used to run them -- and nutrient prices there remain at a record even as the pressure eased in North America. Europe could face a deficit of about 9% of its annual nitrogen-fertilizer needs in the first half, VTB Capital estimates. Food may get even pricier if harvests suffer or crop prices rise.
Many farmers yet to secure chemicals are either waiting until the last minute in case prices ease, or may spread them more thinly.
In Hungary, nitrogen fertilizer usage will drop around 30% to 40% this season, hurting crop yields, said Gyorgy Rasko, an agricultural economist who has farms in the country.
“If there’s a drought around the end of April and May, the effect could be even more devastating, since nitrogen helps plants survive dry days,” he said.
Nitrogen nutrients are crucial for spring growth in Europe and are used again from February. They’re also the type most affected by Europe’s energy crisis because they’re produced using gas. A first-half shortage of those types may reach as much as 7 million tons, VTB said.
----The fertilizer market also faces wider threats, from export restrictions by Russia and China to sanctions on Belarusian potash output that’s affecting trade routes.
Harvest Risk
Farmers in crop giants France and Germany probably booked about 70% of their nitrogen fertilizer needs for the growing season by year-end, a time when purchases are typically wrapping up, adviser Agritel said. Coverage in Black Sea nations like Ukraine and Romania may be even lower.
It’s still attractive to grow wheat and corn, but using less fertilizer increases risk. Curbing application on wheat by roughly 15% from normal could cut yields about 5% and may also hurt protein content, Agritel analyst Isaure Perrot said.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/fertilizer-crisis-getting-real-european-070000275.html
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
S.Korea reports second-highest COVID count ahead of holiday
Reuters January 23, 2022 5:20 AM GMT
SEOUL, Jan 23 (Reuters) - South Korea posted its second-highest daily number of coronavirus cases on Sunday, despite extended COVID-19 curbs and a high vaccination rate, raising concerns of further spread during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday.
The country recorded 7,630 new cases on Saturday, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) said, above the 7,009 cases reported a day earlier and near the mid-December record of 7,848 logged.
South Korea in mid-January extended tougher social distancing rules for three weeks, including a 9 p.m. curfew for restaurants, cafes and bars, and limits on private gatherings, ahead of the holiday that starts on Saturday. read more
Tens of millions of Koreans across the country typically travel during Lunar New Year for family gatherings during one of the country's main holidays.
South Korea has recorded 733,902 COVID-19 infections and 6,540 deaths, KDCA data showed, although nearly 95% of adults have been fully vaccinated and more than half having received a booster shot.
More
India's COVID-19 cases rise by 333,533 in last 24 hours - govt
January 23, 2022 5:02 AM GMT
NEW DELHI, Jan 23 (Reuters) - India reported over 300,000 new COVID-19 infections for the fourth straight day even though the caseload over the last 24 hours was slightly lower than a day before, data released by the government on Sunday showed.
India reported 333,533 new COVID-19 infections over the past 24 hours with 525 dead, according to the figures released by the government.
India's total death toll due to COVID-19 now stands at 489,409, the health ministry said. On Saturday, India had reported 337,704 new cases of COVID-19 and 488 dead.
The government in the statement said the recovery rate for infected people currently stands at 93.18%.
Since the start of this year, different parts of the country are under varying degrees of restrictions to contain infections caused by highly transmissible Omicron variant.
India's capital Delhi has imposed a weekend curfew and even though it was widely expected that Delhi will ease some restrictions, the local government decided on Friday to continue with the curfew. read more
The federal government said it tested 1.87 million people in the last 24 hours and it planned to continue to expand its testing through the country.
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-covid-cases-rise-by-333533-last-24-hours-govt-2022-01-23/
Pfizer CEO sees annual COVID vaccine rather than frequent boosters
Reuters January 23, 20221 2:46 AM GMT
JERUSALEM, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Pfizer Inc (PFE.N) Chief Executive Albert Bourla said on Saturday that an annual COVID-19 vaccine would be preferable to more frequent booster shots in fighting the coronavirus pandemic.
Pfizer/BioNtech's (22UAy.DE) COVID-19 vaccine has shown to be effective against severe disease and death caused by the heavily-mutated Omicron variant but less effective in preventing transmission.
With cases soaring, some countries have expanded COVID-19 vaccine booster programmes or shortened the gap between shots as governments scramble to shore up protection. read more
In an interview with Israel's N12 News, Bourla was asked whether he sees booster shots being administered every four to five months on a regular basis.
"This will not be a good scenario. What I'm hoping (is) that we will have a vaccine that you will have to do once a year," Bourla said.
"Once a year - it is easier to convince people to do it. It is easier for people to remember.
"So from a public health perspective, it is an ideal situation. We are looking to see if we can create a vaccine that covers Omicron and doesn't forget the other variants and that could be a solution," Bourla said.
Bourla has said Pfizer could be ready to file for approval for a redesigned vaccine to fight Omicron, and mass produce it, as soon as March.
More
High number of Omicron mutations render antibodies ineffective - study
New research indicates the 46 mutations found in the COVID-19 Omicron variant have rendered antibodies ineffective, accounting for the high number of re-infections and breakthrough cases.
By SHIRA SILKOFF Published: JANUARY 22, 2022 17:34 Updated: JANUARY 22, 2022 18:43
The highly contagious COVID-19 Omicron variant has a large number of uniquely specific mutations that allow it to evade pre-existing antibodies in the human body, accounting for its high rate of infection, new research carried out by the University of Minnesota has found.
The peer-reviewed study titled “Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant: Unique features and their impact on pre-existing antibodies” was first published in the Journal of Autoimmunity and was produced by Kamlendra Singh, a professor in the University of Missouri College of Veterinary Medicine and assistant director of the college’s Molecular Interactions Core and Bond Life Sciences Center investigator.
The research team set out to gather data on the mutations found in the spike protein (S-protein) of the Omicron variant. An S-protein refers to a large structure projecting from the surface of the virus’s outermost layer, and they are most commonly associated with all forms of coronavirus cells.
The research team found an unprecedented number of mutations in the Omicron S-protein. They analyzed the available sequences of the virus along with the structural data on the spike protein in order to understand the possible impact that the high number of mutations could have on the binding of antibodies to the virus.
Antibodies allow the human body to fight off viruses that enter the system, preventing them from entering the immune system. While earlier in the COVID-19 pandemic it was thought that being infected with COVID-19, or being vaccinated against it, would provide enough antibodies to prevent reinfection, the Omicron variant has proved otherwise, as high amounts of people are being re-infected, or infected despite being fully vaccinated
Using complete sequences of the Omicron variant, the research team identified a total of 46 signature mutations within the variant, 23 of which were completely unique and had not been identified in any of the earlier variants of the virus. Two of the mutations had first been recorded in the Delta or Delta Plus variant which preceded Omicron by several months.
Of the 46 mutations found, 30 were identified in the S-protein while the remainder were located elsewhere in the virus cell.
Having identified the unique mutations found in the Omicron variant, the team turned to researching whether or not they were responsible for the lack of antibody response against the variant.
Using a preexisting S-protein structure taken from the Protein Data Bank, one which would theoretically prevent the binding of antibodies to a virus, they worked to assess whether or not the Omicron mutations would similarly affect the COVID-19 S-protein, thus rendering antibodies ineffective.
Through this method, the team discovered that specific mutations create interference in the surface of the virus, preventing antibodies from binding to it, while others result in a complete loss of interaction between the antibodies and the virus, thereby rendering the antibodies ineffective against the highly-mutated variant.
This, the study assessed, suggests that preexisting immunization (whether from vaccination or previous infection) may no longer be able to provide optimal protection against the Omicron variant, allowing it to bypass antibodies and enter into the immune system.
More
https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/article-694237
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Impossible material made possible inside a graphene sandwich
Date: January 20, 2022
Source: University of Vienna
Summary: Atoms bind together by sharing electrons. The way this happens depends on the atom types but also on conditions such as temperature and pressure. In two-dimensional (2D) materials, such as graphene, atoms join along a plane to form structures just one atom thick, which leads to fascinating properties determined by quantum mechanics.
The design of new materials allows for either improved efficiency of known applications or totally new applications that were out of reach with the previously existing materials. Indeed, tens of thousands of conventional materials such as metals and their alloys have been identified over the last hundred years. A similar number of possible 2D materials have been predicted to exist, but as of now, only a fraction of them have been produced in experiments. One reason for this is the instability of many of these materials in laboratory conditions.
In the recent study, the researchers synthesized 2D cuprous iodide that was stabilized in a graphene sandwich, as the first example of a material that does not otherwise exist in normal laboratory conditions. The synthesis utilizes the large interlayer spacing of oxidized graphene multilayers, which allows iodine and copper atoms to diffuse into the gap and to grow the new material. The graphene layers here have an important role imposing a high pressure on the sandwiched material that thus becomes stabilized. The resulting sandwich structure is shown in the illustration.
"As so often, when we first saw the new material in our microscopy images, it was a surprise," says Kimmo Mustonen, the lead author of the study. "It took us quite some time to figure out what the structure precisely was. This enabled us together with Danubia NanoTech company, headed by Viera Skákalová, to design a chemical process for producing it in large scale," he continues. Understanding the structure was a joint effort of scientists from the Universities of Vienna, Tübingen, Antwerp and CY Cergy Paris. "We had to use several electron microscopy techniques to make sure that we were really seeing a monolayer of copper and iodine and to extract the exact atom positions in 3D, including the latest methods we have recently developed," the second lead author Christoph Hofer adds.
Following the 2D copper iodide, the researchers have already expanded the synthesis method to produce other new 2D materials. "The method seems to be truly universal, providing access to dozens of new 2D materials. These are truly exciting times!," Kimmo Mustonen concludes.
“The State thrives on war – unless, of course, it is defeated and crushed – expands on it, glories in it.”
Murray Rothbard.
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