Baltic Dry Index. 1644 -87 Brent Crude 88.38
Spot Gold 1814
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 19/01/22 World 335,366,984
Deaths 5,573,545
“Any
fool can know. The point is to understand.”
In the stock casinos, more fear and panic.
Rising interest rates, rising oil prices, the threat of a new European war, soaring global omicron cases, increasing China lockdowns, more supply chain disruption, are hardly reasons to want to be long stocks let alone buying more.
Plus there are reasons to doubt China’s preliminary economic figures released on Monday,
In better news, the USA and Russia are to hold high level talks in Geneva on Friday in a last ditch attempt to avoid a new European war, presumably that means no European war before Saturday.
Did the Biden team just blink? That’s probably the impression in Moscow following last year’s Afghan rout.
Asia-Pacific markets fall after overnight sell-off on Wall Street; Sony shares tumble 10%
SINGAPORE — Asia-Pacific markets fell on Wednesday following an overnight sell-off on Wall Street.
The Nikkei 225 in Japan dropped 2.22% while the Topix index was lower by 2.33%. South Korean shares also tumbled: the Kospi gave up earlier gains and fell 0.65% and the Kosdaq was down 0.83%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index traded near flat while the tech-focused Hang Seng Tech index fell 0.14%.
Chinese mainland shares struggled for gains: The Shenzhen component was down 1.16% while the Shanghai composite fell 0.29%.
In Australia, the ASX 200 dropped 0.9% as most sectors traded lower. The heavily weighted financials subindex declined 1.37% as the country’s major bank names sold off.
Elsewhere, India’s Nifty 50 was down 0.35% while the Sensex sold off 0.42%.
“Equity markets declined while oil stocks gained overnight, as markets expect central banks will need to lift rates more quickly to control inflation,” ANZ Research analysts wrote in a Wednesday morning note.
Stateside, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 540 points after Goldman Sachs shares sold off as the investment bank missed analysts’ expectations for earnings. The S&P 500 as well as the Nasdaq Composite, which comprises technology stocks sensitive to interest rates, also declined sharply.
Shares of Japanese conglomerate Sony tumbled 10.22% after Microsoft on Tuesday said it is buying video game publisher Activision Blizzard for almost $69 billion — it is set to be the biggest U.S. tech deal ever, eclipsing the 2016 Dell-EMC merger.
Sony, which makes the PlayStation gaming consoles, competes with Microsoft’s Xbox consoles. Last year, Microsoft completed a $7.5 billion acquisition of game maker Bethesda.
Some of Activision’s marquee franchises include Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, and the highly popular mobile game Candy Crush.
Elsewhere, shares of embattled cruise operator Genting Hong Kong was suspended until further notice. In a regulatory filing, Genting said it was filing to wind up the company and apply for the appointment of provisional liquidators as it was unable to secure funds needed to stay afloat.
Genting said its available cash balances are expected to run out on or around end of January.
Earlier this month, the company warned it may not be able to pay its debts and other obligations after its German shipbuilding subsidiary MV Werften filed for insolvency.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/19/asia-markets-interest-rates-oil-prices-and-dollar.html
'We want peace': Blinken to meet Russian, Ukrainian officials, U.S. says
January 19, 2022 2:31 AM GMT
WASHINGTON, Jan 18 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden's top diplomat will seek to defuse a crisis with Moscow over Ukraine when he meets the Russian foreign minister in Geneva this week following visits with Ukrainian leaders in Kyiv and European officials in Berlin.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel amid concerns voiced by Ukraine and its Western allies over the tens of thousands of Russian troops amassed in and near Ukraine.
"The United States does not want conflict. We want peace," a senior U.S. State Department official said on Tuesday.
"(Russian) President (Vladimir) Putin has it in his power to take steps to de-escalate this crisis so the United States and Russia can pursue a relationship that is not based on hostility or crisis," the official told reporters.
Russia denies planning a new military offensive but has made several demands and said it could take unspecified military action unless the West agrees to them. read more .
Blinken will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Wednesday.
Then in Berlin he will meet German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and later the Transatlantic Quad, referring to a format that involves the United States, Britain, France and Germany.
A State Department statement said the discussions would focus in part on a readiness among allies to impose "massive consequences and severe economic costs on Russia."
Blinken will meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Geneva on Friday to seek a diplomatic off-ramp with Moscow, the senior official said.
Blinken spoke with Lavrov on Tuesday and the senior official said the two decided in the call that it would be useful to meet in person.
Lavrov separately said Moscow would welcome U.S. diplomatic efforts and reiterated Russian accusations that Ukraine was "sabotaging" agreements aimed at ending the conflict between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.
More
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uss-blinken-visit-ukraine-following-russia-talks-2022-01-18/
China’s Economic Numbers Once Again Have the Skeptics Suspicious
By Tanner Brown Jan. 18, 2022 10:30 am ET
China isn’t particularly known for the reliability or transparency of its economic data. From overall economic growth to more specific metrics such as employment, many experts—particularly Western economists—have long distrusted Beijing’s numbers.
A 2020 Yale study done in collaboration with China’s prestigious Fudan University compared GDP data to the eventual numbers local officials submitted, and concluded that “the evidence is very clear that the numbers have been manipulated,” wrote lead author Frank Zhang.
So it isn’t surprising that Monday’s preliminary release of economic data for 2021 was viewed skeptically by many.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said that the economy grew 8.1% for all of 2021. On the surface that sounds extremely robust— Goldman Sachs Group ’s latest estimate for 2021 growth in the U.S. is 3.8%. China’s number comes off a very low baseline comparison from 2020, when its economy was plagued by the coronavirus and officially grew at 2.2%.
Last year ended with strong exports and factory production for China, with value-added industrial output rising 4.3% year-over-year in December, and weak consumption, with retail sales expanding only 1.7%.
Low baseline or not, however, 8.1% is the best performance the Chinese economy has seen in a decade.
“I’ve been trying to ferret through China’s data to see why the quarterly change in GDP was revised up significantly in the third quarter and estimated at an extraordinary 1.6%—nearly 6.5% annualized—in the final quarter,” said George Magnus, an associate at the University of Oxford China Centre.
“It beggars belief that this reflects an economy in which the property sector elephant started to contract, consumption weakened, and Covid-related shutdowns began” at the end of the year, he told Barron’s Tuesday.
Indeed, contraction in China’s real estate sector shrank nearly twice as fast in the fourth quarter than it did in the previous quarter, contracting 2.9% after a 1.6% fall in the third quarter. That was also the first consecutive quarterly fall in 13 years, according to official data.
That hits a country like China especially hard, where the property sector is estimated to account for a whopping 30% of overall GDP.
For instance, if things in the already bad real estate industry were to truly collapse, the impact on overall growth would be devastating, many analysts say. “A 20% fall in real estate activity could lead to a 5-10% fall in GDP, Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff previously told Barron’s.
More
Finally, more on that continuing USA v China trade war.
China to Curb Purchases of U.S. Farm Goods, Fitch Solutions Says
Tue, January 18, 2022, 3:54 AM
(Bloomberg) -- Relations between the U.S. and China are set to remain strained, which could prompt Beijing to continue diversifying its imports of agricultural goods and keep America’s share low, according to Fitch Solutions.
China may continue to limit soybean and other agricultural purchases from the U.S. as geopolitical tensions persist, the research company said in a note. Brazil will be a winner, with its share in the Chinese market poised to stay elevated and could rise further for some commodities such as meat and cotton.
Even though China has bought record amounts of U.S. farm goods in recent years -- partly due to a trade deal signed in January 2020 and mainly because of a massive expansion in its hog herd -- relations between the world’s two biggest economies have deteriorated. Tensions flared over Hong Kong, Taiwan, human rights, the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic and many other flashpoints.
Fitch Solutions highlighted other key agribusiness themes in 2022, including soaring input costs and strained supply chains. It said U.S.-China relationship poses a risk to logistics as escalating tensions could disrupt trade routes.
Other details from the note:
· Freight and shipping costs peaked last year but are likely to remain elevated in 2022 as economic growth picks up, port capacity remains constrained and the ongoing omicron wave worsens a labor crunch.
· Soaring fertilizer and energy prices are seen as the greatest risk to grain prices this year, according to a poll by Fitch Solutions.
· Higher crude oil prices will boost demand for biofuel feedstocks, including sugarcane, beet, corn and vegetable oils.
· Higher gas and coal prices will increase the cost of fertilizers, which will weigh on application, harvesting yields and agriculture production. It may also spur a shift away from fertilizer-intensive grains such as corn, toward soybeans and other crops.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-curb-purchases-u-farm-035456590.html
“Knowledge comes, but wisdom lingers.”
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
PIONEER ON "IS CORN OR SOYBEANS THE
MORE PROFITABLE OPTION FOR 2022?"
Jan. 18, 2022
Rising fertilizer
and input costs are making the decision to plant corn vs. soybeans especially
difficult for growers seeking maximum profit potential this season. While some
growers are considering a switch to soybeans as a way to avoid costly
fertilizer expenses, that may just shift nutrient focus.
"While soybeans don't typically require a
nitrogen application, they still remove nutrients," said Matt Clover,
Pioneer Agronomy Manager. "A high-yielding soybean crop can remove as much
as 84 pounds of potassium on a per acre basis. Compare that to a high-yielding
corn crop, which only removes about 55 pounds per acre. In the end, soybeans
are still removing a substantial amount of nutrients off that field."
Granular developed a crop rotation return on
investment (ROI) calculator to help growers make their planting decision a
little easier by helping to sort out the most profitable acreage mix. The Corn
vs. Soybean calculator is based on data from more than 42 million acres,
combined with the latest research compiled by Granular Data Scientists.
While agronomic factors are important when making
planting and input decisions, the calculator helps growers make decisions with
financials in mind. Budget costs are calculated using numbers provided by local
state universities and the crop price market closing cost. Additional input
costs incurred from corn-on-corn are also considered in the calculations.
Profit boils down to yield multiplied by price,
minus cost. Granular's calculator allows farmers to run those calculations at
desired price levels and determine where the most profitable acreage mix falls.
https://www.agrimarketing.com/s/139410
Supply Chain Woes Could Worsen as China Imposes New COVID Lockdowns
Mon, January 17, 2022, 7:15 PM
WASHINGTON — Companies are bracing for another round of potentially debilitating supply chain disruptions as China, home to about one-third of global manufacturing, imposes sweeping lockdowns in an attempt to keep the omicron variant at bay.
The measures have already confined tens of millions of people to their homes in several Chinese cities and contributed to a suspension of connecting flights through Hong Kong from much of the world for the next month. At least 20 million people, or about 1.5% of China’s population, are in lockdown, mostly in the city of Xi’an in western China and in Henan province in north-central China.
The country’s zero-tolerance policy has manufacturers — already on edge from spending the past two years dealing with crippling supply chain woes — worried about another round of shutdowns at Chinese factories and ports. Additional disruptions to the global supply chain would come at a particularly fraught moment for companies, which are struggling with rising prices for raw materials and shipping along with extended delivery times and worker shortages.
China used lockdowns, contact tracing and quarantines to halt the spread of the coronavirus nearly two years ago after its initial emergence in Wuhan. These tactics have been highly effective, but the extreme transmissibility of the omicron variant poses the biggest test yet of China’s system.
So far, the effects of the lockdowns on Chinese factory production and deliveries have been limited. Four of China’s largest port cities — Shanghai, Dalian, Tianjin and Shenzhen — have imposed narrowly targeted lockdowns to try to control small outbreaks of the omicron variant. As of this past weekend, these cities had not locked down their docks.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/supply-chain-woes-could-worsen-191538968.html
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Japanese scientists develop special ‘ostrich’ masks that glow if wearer has COVID-19
Mon, January 17, 2022, 7:33 PM
Scientists
in Japan have created special masks that are able to detect and possibly help
prevent the spread of COVID-19 using ostrich antibodies.
The masks, developed by researchers at Kyoto Prefectural University, are coated
with ostrich antibodies to capitalize on the bird’s strong immune system that
makes it resistant to certain diseases, Dezeen reported.
Kyoto Prefectural University President Yasuhiro Tsukamoto, the project’s lead
scientist, is a veterinary professor who has done extensive research on
ostriches for years.
"Ostriches
rarely die from filth, minor injuries or illnesses, and [they] live for 60
years," Tsukamoto was quoted as saying. "I realized that the secret
of longevity is that it is resistant to infectious diseases with its amazing
immunity and resilience, so I started researching ostrich antibodies in
earnest."
According to the researchers, they created coronavirus antibodies by injecting
the ostriches with a spike protein of the coronavirus. Afterward, they
“extracted the ostriches' antibodies from the yolk of the birds' eggs” and then
“bound them to the filters in the mask using polylactic acid.”
While antibodies sourced from other animals can cost millions of dollars per
gram, those from ostrich eggs reportedly cost less than $1,000 per gram.
Ostrich antibodies can also be collected in just about two weeks, making them a
more viable option, according to Tsukamoto.
"If virus infection can be detected by putting a mouth filter carrying an
ostrich antibody in a 'disposable mask' that is used every day in the world,
non-symptomatic infected people such as super spreaders can be voluntarily
treated at an early stage," he pointed out. "It is a handy and
inexpensive device that prevents the invasion of the COVID-19 virus into the
human body.”
Tsukamoto
discovered that he himself was positive for COVID-19 after the mask that he
wore glowed upon testing, reported Reuters. He later
confirmed the diagnosis after taking a standard COVID-19 test.
To make masks that glow, Tsukamoto’s team first coats removable mask filters
with ostrich antibodies to target the novel coronavirus. The mask filters are
then sprayed with a chemical liquid after several hours of use. The filters
belonging to anyone infected with COVID-19 glow in the nose and mouth regions
when placed under ultraviolet light.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/japanese-scientists-develop-special-ostrich-193333190.html
COVID-19: Israel says Omicron wave has not yet reached peak
Published: JANUARY 18, 2022 10:45 Updated: JANUARY 18, 2022 11:27
Israel has yet to reach the peak of the Omicron wave, Health Ministry Director-General Prof. Nachman Ash said Tuesday.
“I believe that the peak will occur in another week or so,” he said in an interview to FM103 Radio.
Ash noted that a lower number of official verified cases might not necessarily mean that there is an actual decrease in infections, because it can be caused by fewer people undergoing official tests and reporting that they are positive.
“However, we are also seeing that the number of hospitalizations is still rising, but the increase is slowing down,” he said.
The Health Ministry has not released new data on the pandemic trends in Israel since Sunday night.
Ash also addressed the decision of shortening the quarantine for infected individuals from seven to five days (with a negative antigen test), which will come into effect on Wednesday.
“The large number of verified cases and of isolations is very burdensome on the economy,” he pointed out. “We have taken several precautions that, as far as they are implemented, will reduce the risk – like the test we require, while up until now there has been no need for a test, on the seventh day people could just leave. In addition, according to the guidelines, if you have symptoms you do not go out.”
According to Ash, these rules will help reduce the risk that individuals who are still contagious after the fifth day – around 15% - leave quarantine.
https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/article-693836
COVID-19: 92% of patients treated with Pfizer antiviral improved
By ROSSELLA TERCATIN Published: JANUARY 17, 2022 12:30 Updated: JANUARY 17, 2022 21:15
More than 90% of coronavirus patients treated with Pfizer’s antiviral drug Paxlovid significantly improved within three days, data released by Maccabi Healthcare Services on Monday showed.
“We recommend to anyone who has fallen sick with COVID and is found suitable for the treatment with this drug to take it and get protected against a serious illness that can lead to hospitalization and even death,” Maccabi division head Dr. Miri Mizrahi Reuveni said.
“The results of the survey indicate the quality of the treatment, its effectiveness and importance during the fight against the coronavirus pandemic, and especially in the midst of the current wave,” she said.
Maccabi is the second-largest healthcare provider in Israel with around 2.5 million members. So far, 850 of them have been given the drug.
The treatment involves taking three pills twice a day for five days, starting as soon as possible and no later than five days after the patient shows the first symptoms. It is intended for individuals in mild to moderate condition who are considered at high risk of developing serious illness.
Data from the clinical trial showed that when the treatment was started within three days of the first symptoms, hospitalizations and deaths dropped by 89% compared with a placebo.
Israel started administering the drug on January 3.
Of the individuals who received the treatment, 60% started to feel better within the first day, and 92% within three days, reporting a decrease in fever and general symptoms.
Among the Maccabi members who started the treatment, 6% decided to interrupt it due to side effects. Among the 62% participants who suffered from side effects, one-third experienced a bitter metallic taste, 18% had diarrhea, 11% reported a loss in taste or smell, 7% had muscle aches, and 4% experienced a headache.
So far, no patient who has received Paxlovid has died.
More
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-692757
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Not the usual update today. Today an update on that Tonga volcano eruption. Approx. 8 minutes.
Volcanic Eruption May Be Biggest Ever Seen From Space
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoMRwyNhqJ4
Before and after images show Tonga smothered in ash after volcanic eruption causes tsunami
Tue, January 18, 2022, 4:35 PM
A thick layer of volcanic ash blanketed Tonga after new images showed the aftermath of Saturday's massive undersea volcanic eruption and tsunami that sparked fears of widespread disaster.
Aerial and satellite photos released by New Zealand, Australia and UNOSAT, the United Nations satellite center, show once green, lush islands smothered in dark ash. Water from large waves that crashed ashore after the eruption can also be seen, alongside wrecked buildings.
Thick ash and smoke contaminated the rainwater many residents rely on to drink, prompting local authorities to ask residents to wear masks and drink bottled water. New Zealand's military promised shipments of water and other supplies but announced Tuesday that the ash coating Tonga's runways would delay flights by at least another day.
Stunning satellite images show Saturday's eruption of the Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha’apai volcano, which propelled a 3-mile-wide plume of ash and gas resembling a giant mushroom to about 12 miles above the water. Tsunami waves resulting from the explosion sent people rushing to higher ground, and the eruption disrupted communication with the small island nation over the weekend.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/images-show-tonga-smothered-ash-145207314.html
“I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies but not the madness of people.”
Sir
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