Baltic Dry Index. 2217 Dec 24. Brent Crude 78.35
Spot Gold 1825
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 03/01/22 World 290,642,682
Deaths 5,460,451
John
Kenneth Galbraith.
Well, we are into 2022 with nothing much changed from the end of 2021.
New covid variant omicron continues surging everywhere, hitting the vaccinated and unvaccinated largely alike. Early indications are that it is up to 7 times more transmissible, but up to 4 times less severe, although more scientific data is needed to confirm those early indications.
But the global drag on the economy continues.
In the stock casinos a mixed bag. Several are closed today for New Year bank holidays, while those that are open are mixed.
China Evergrande is back in the bad news section again, with every prospect that 2022 will be its final year in present form.
OPEC+ meets tomorrow, although no change to their intended production regime is expected.
On January 10th, the USA and Russia are to hold “diplomatic” talks over the Ukraine, with the outcome probably deciding whether Russia invades much of the Ukraine to prevent western missiles getting placed there. Shades of the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 but with snow, ice and vodka replacing sun, sand and rum. But does Russia trust the USA enough for any nod and wink deal to work?
Will Ukrainian troops really fight for the oligarchs of the most corrupt country in Europe that "employed" Hunter Biden?
With natural gas still flowing east out of Germany towards Russia, for alleged “technical reasons” related to spot pricing, it looks to be a long cold, expensive winter heating season for most Europeans.
Asia stocks mixed as trading in 2022 kicks off; Evergrande shares halted
SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia were mixed on Monday as trading in 2022 kicked off, with some major markets in the region closed.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index shed earlier gains and fell into negative territory, declining 0.62% by the afternoon.
Trading in the shares and structured products of debt-ridden Chinese developer China Evergrande Group was halted in Hong Kong on Monday, according to an exchange notice. No immediate reason was given for the halt.
Hong Kong-listed shares of Evergrande-related firms were mixed. China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group soared 9.09% while Evergrande Property Services slipped 0.38%.
Other property stocks in Hong Kong also declined, with shares of Country Garden falling 2.02% while Sunac plunged 8.32%. The Hang Seng Properties index traded 0.57% lower.
Meanwhile, shares of Chinese artificial intelligence firm Sensetime soared 27.27%, days after seeing a strong debut in Hong Kong last week.
Elsewhere, South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.21% while the Taiex in Taiwan advanced 0.13%.
Over in Southeast Asia, the Straits Times index climbed 0.27%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 0.13%.
Markets in Australia, mainland China and Japan are closed on Monday for a holiday.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/03/asia-markets-first-trading-day-of-2022-currencies-oil.html
China Evergrande shares halted, set to release 'inside information'
January 3, 2022 5:37 AM GMT
HONG KONG, Jan 3 (Reuters) - China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) shares have been suspended from trading on Monday pending the release of "inside information", the embattled property developer said without elaborating.
Evergrande, the world's most indebted developer, is struggling to repay more than $300 billion in liabilities, including nearly $20 billion of international market bonds that were deemed to be in cross-default by ratings firms last month after it missed payments.
The property developer missed new coupon payments worth $255 million due last Tuesday < VG162759965=>, though both have a 30-day grace period. read more
The firm has set up a risk management committee with many members from state companies, and said it would actively engage with its creditors. read more
Local media reported over the weekend a city government in the Chinese resort island of Hainan had ordered Evergrande on Dec. 30 to demolish its 39 residential buildings within 10 days, due to illegal construction.
The buildings stretched over 435,000 square meters, the reports added, citing an official notice to Evergrande's unit in Hainan.
Evergrande did not respond to request for comment on the Hainan development.
On Friday, Evergrande dialled back plans to repay investors in its wealth management products, saying each investor in its wealth management product could expect to receive 8,000 yuan ($1,257) per month as principal payment for three months irrespective of when the investment matures. read more
The move highlights the deepening liquidity squeeze at the property developer.
More
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/china-evergrande-shares-halt-trading-2022-01-03/
In other news, global omicron disruption continues spreading and likely will all month.
Omicron-related disruptions cause over 4,000 flight cancellations to kick off 2022
January 3, 2022 4:38 AM GMT
Jan 2 (Reuters) - Over 4,000 flights were cancelled around the world on Sunday, more than half of them U.S. flights, adding to the toll of holiday week travel disruptions due to adverse weather and the surge in coronavirus cases caused by the Omicron variant.
The flights cancelled by 8 pm GMT on Sunday included over 2,400 entering, departing from or within the United States, according to tracking website FlightAware.com. Globally, more than 11,200 flights were delayed.
Among the airlines with most cancellations were SkyWest (SKYW.O) and SouthWest (LUV.N), with 510 and 419 cancellations respectively, FlightAware showed.
The Christmas and New Year holidays are typically a peak time for air travel, but the rapid spread of the highly transmissible Omicron variant has led to a sharp increase in COVID-19 infections, forcing airlines to cancel flights as pilots and cabin crew quarantine. read more
Transportation agencies across the United States were also suspending or reducing services due to coronavirus-related staff shortages.
Omicron has brought record case counts and dampened New Year festivities around much of the world. read more
The rise in U.S. COVID cases had caused some companies to change plans to increase the number of employees working from their offices from Monday.
U.S. authorities registered at least 346,869 new coronavirus on Saturday, according to a Reuters tally. The U.S. death toll from COVID-19 rose by at least 377 to 828,562.
More
World's COVID-19 cases rise 59% but deaths down 7%; Australia triples in week
Jan. 2, 2022 / 1:31 PM / Updated Jan. 2, 2022 at 11:29 PM
Jan. 2 (UPI) -- COVID-19 cases have surged to record levels throughout the world, including many nations in Europe as well as the United States and Canada, fueled by the highly contagious Omicron variant despite restrictions and vaccines. Even Australia, which had controlled the virus with only a few thousand cases daily, has endured a huge spike, tripling in one week.
Infections exploded before Christmas and through New Year's, forcing Atlanta, Athens, Berlin, London, New Delhi, Paris, Rome to scrap plans on New Year's Eve. New York's festivities went on but there were restrictions, including required vaccines and mask wearing.
The strain, which was first detected by scientists in South Africa on Nov. 24, has surpassed the Delta variant in many parts of the world.
In one week, infections rose 59% with 9,417,922 for a total of 290,589,607 on Sunday with many nations not releasing data on New Year's Day, according to tracking by Worldometers.info. One week earlier the rise was 13%.
Deaths went down 7% or 40,583 for a toll of 5,460,222.
Nations' cases more than doubling were Greece 350%, Argentina 234%, Colombia 225%, Israel 218%, Australia 214%, Saudi Arabia 172%, Italy 164%, Portugal 164%, Canada 141%, India 167%, France 131% and Brazil at 110%.
Several nations set daily cases records in the past week. Marks broken on Friday were France at 232,200 (population 65.5 million), Britain at 189,846 (population 68.4 million), Italy at 144,243 (population 603 million), Canada at 41,210 (38.2 million population). Spain, which doesn't report data on weekends and holidays, on Thursday reported a record 161,688 (population 46.8 million) along with Greece 40,560 (10.3 million population) and Canada 41,217 (38.2 million population).
More
Note: Italy's population is about 60 million not 603 million as printed.
“I
believe there is something out there watching us. Unfortunately, it's the
government.”
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Oil starts new year on positive note, pandemic worries curb gains
January 3, 2022 4:54 AM GMT
NEW DELHI, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Oil prices firmed on Monday as the market kicked off 2022 on a positive note with suppliers in focus ahead of Tuesday's OPEC+ meeting, although surging COVID-19 cases continued to dent demand sentiment.
Brent crude added 59 cents, or 0.76%, to $78.37 a barrel, as of 0440 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 63 cents, or 0.84%, to $75.84 a barrel.
"Tightened supplies from Libya ahead of an Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) meeting kept the market sentiments positive," said Abhishek Chauhan, head of commodities at Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Libya's state oil firm said on Saturday the country's oil output would be reduced by 200,000 barrels per day for a week due to maintenance on a main pipeline between the Samah and Dahra fields.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ will probably stick to their plan to add 400,000 barrels per day of supply in February, four sources said. read more
Last year, oil prices rose around 50%, spurred by the global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic slump and producer restraint, even as infections reached record highs worldwide. read more
More
U.S. Natural Gas Faces Wild 2022 as Foreign Crises Exert Pull
Gerson Freitas Jr, Sergio Chapa and Natalia Kniazhevich
Sat, January 1, 2022, 3:00 PM
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. natural gas is in for another wild year as the insularity that once shielded North American energy consumers from overseas turmoil disintegrates.
Benchmark American gas futures climbed almost 45% in 2021 for the strongest annual performance in half a decade after a deadly freeze that crippled output was followed by summer heatwaves that lifted demand and hindered efforts to stow away supplies for winter.
As 2022 dawns, traders, explorers and utility operators are facing the prospect of continued volatility amid rising competition from buyers as far away as Poland and the Netherlands who are dealing with a crisis so acute that factories have shut down and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is warning there’s a “clear risk of running out of gas.”
Overseas buyers purchased 13% of U.S. gas production in December, a seven-fold increase from five years earlier when most of the infrastructure required to ship the fuel out of the country didn’t yet exist. Prior to the advent of the American gas-export business, the U.S.-Canada market was a provincial sphere where prices were dictated by cold snaps in places like Pittsburgh and Chicago, and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. But those days are long gone as brokers in Seoul and Rotterdam shell out record amounts to entice tankers laden with U.S. gas to sail their way.
“We continue to expect more price volatility to be present in these markets relative to recent history, albeit at a more diminished level once exiting the peak demand season of winter weather,” said Natasha Kaneva, head of commodities research and strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “This is particularly true in the U.S., where price volatility has long been absent.”
Volatility in New York-traded gas futures surged to the highest in almost three years in early December as late-autumn concerns that the U.S. was on the verge of its own supply crunch collapsed on the back of milder-than-normal weather and prices tumbled more than 40% from an October peak. Prices also have recently been falling in Europe as the arrival of American cargoes eased fears of an immediate shortage, although buyers in continental Europe still are paying six times as much as U.S. rivals.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-natural-gas-faces-wild-150011844.html
Pricey Chicken Puts Thighs on Restaurant Menus
Jan. 1, 2022 9:00 am ET
Short supplies and escalating costs of chicken breasts and wings are leading restaurants to add thighs and other dark poultry meat to menus and entrees.
Long overshadowed by more-coveted and profitable products like breasts and tenders, less-loved portions like thighs and legs have for years been directed toward export markets and lower-profile venues. Amid a national supply crunch that has doubled breast meat prices in 2021, sent wing markets to record levels and left some suppliers short on both, thighs have fresh appeal for meat companies and restaurant operators.
Poultry producer Perdue Farms Inc. has seen a 15% increase in boneless thigh sales in 2021 and a 20% increase in ground chicken, which is made of mostly dark meat, the company said.
“That demand has been spectacular,” said Mark McKay, president of fresh poultry and meats at the Salisbury, Md., company.
Products like thighs have two advantages for restaurants struggling with the high cost and tight supplies of breasts and tenders: they are cheaper and easier to get, industry officials said. Boneless skinless chicken breast, the poultry industry’s flagship product, was priced at under $1 a pound in late December 2020. Now, it is more than $2 a pound, according to market research firm Urner Barry. Thighs, meanwhile, cost about 54 cents a pound, compared with 26 cents a year earlier, according to the firm.
More
https://www.wsj.com/articles/pricey-chicken-puts-thighs-on-restaurant-menus-11641045602
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Brazil health agency warns against boarding cruise ships amid COVID-19 outbreaks
January 3, 20221:19 AM GMT
SAO PAULO, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Brazilian health agency Anvisa on Sunday warned passengers against boarding cruise ships operating along the Brazilian coast after outbreaks of COVID-19 affecting crew and customers, according to a statement on its website.
The move follows a call for the "immediate temporary interruption of the cruise ship season in Brazil" as they pose a risk to public health.
"In view of recent events, Anvisa does not recommend the embarkation of passengers who have trips scheduled on cruise ships for the next few days," the statement said.
"This recommendation takes into account the rapid change in the epidemiological scenario, the risk to the health of passengers and the unpredictability of operations at this time."
There are five cruise liners operating on the Brazilian coast being monitored by Anvisa, the agency said.
The MSC Splendida, anchored at Santos, was banned from embarking new passengers from late Saturday and the vessel was quarantined from Sunday. The Diadema was ordered to suspend service and all passengers will need to disembark when it arrives at Santos, Anvisa said.
The other three are the MSC Preziosa, Costa Fascinosa, and MSC Seaside, which face a potential boarding ban and service suspension pending further epidemiological investigation, Anvisa said.
Omicron could lead Israel to herd immunity, health official says
January 2, 2022 8:41 AM GMT
JERUSALEM, Jan 2 (Reuters) - A surge of Omicron infections could see Israel reaching herd immunity, the country's top health official said on Sunday as daily cases continued to climb.
The highly transmissible Omicron variant has brought a surge in coronavirus cases across the globe. Worldwide infections have hit a record high, with an average of just over a million cases detected a day between Dec. 24 and 30, according to Reuters data. Deaths, however, have not risen in kind, bringing hope the new variant is less lethal. read more
Until late December, Israel managed to stave off Omicron to some degree but with infection rates now gaining pace, daily cases are expected to reach record highs in the coming three weeks. This could result in herd immunity, said director-general of the health ministry, Nachman Ash.
"The cost will be a great many infections," Ash told 103FM Radio. "The numbers will have to be very high in order to reach herd immunity. This is possible but we don't want to reach it by means of infections, we want it to happen as a result of many people vaccinating," he said.
Around 60% of Israel's 9.4 million population are fully vaccinated - almost all with Pfizer (PFE.N) /BioNTech'S (22UAy.DE) vaccine - according to the health ministry, which means they have either received three doses or have had their second dose recently. But hundreds of thousands of those eligible for a third inoculation have so far not taken it.
Around 1.3 million coronavirus cases have been documented in Israel since the start of the pandemic. But between two to four million people may well be infected by the end of January when the Omicron wave could subside, according to Eran Segal, data scientist at the Weizmann Institute of Science and an adviser to the government.
Over the past ten days, daily infections have more than quadrupled. Severe cases have also climbed but at a far lower rate, rising from about 80 to around 100.
Watching severe morbidity closely, Ash is considering allowing a fourth vaccine dose for people over 60, following its approval last week for immune-compromised and elderly people in care homes.
CES to now end sooner than planned as Omicron cases surge
December 31, 2021 8:15 PM GMT
Dec 31 (Reuters) - CES will now end a day earlier than planned, the organizer of the global technology and gadget show said, after companies including Amazon.com Inc and General Motors Co dropped out of attending the Las Vegas event in person due to Omicron concerns.
"The step was taken as an additional safety measure to the current health protocols that have been put in place for CES," the event organizer Consumer Technology Association (CTA) said on Friday, announcing the event will now end on Jan. 7.
The spread of the highly transmissible Omicron variant has led to a sharp jump in COVID-19 infections across the world, making many reconsider their travel plans and leading to thousands of flight cancellations. read more
The number of new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. has doubled in eight days to a record high of 329,000 a day on average, according to a Reuters tally.
As worries over the new variant loom, many companies have withdrawn from presenting in-person at the event, planned both virtually and in-person, that begins on Jan.5 with over 2,200 exhibitors.
Over the last few days, a host of firms including Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O), Proctor & Gamble (PG.N), Alphabet Inc's (GOOGL.O) Google, Facebook parent Meta Platforms (FB.O) have also dropped their in-person plans. read more
More
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Novel semiconductor gives new perspective on anomalous Hall effect
Date: December 22, 2021
Source: Tokyo Institute of Technology
Summary: A large, unconventional anomalous Hall resistance in a new magnetic semiconductor in the absence of large-scale magnetic ordering has been demonstrated, validating a recent theoretical prediction. Their findings provide new insights into the anomalous Hall effect, a quantum phenomenon that has previously been associated with long-range magnetic order.
A large, unconventional anomalous Hall resistance in a new magnetic semiconductor in the absence of large-scale magnetic ordering has been demonstrated by Tokyo Tech materials scientists, validating a recent theoretical prediction. Their findings provide new insights into the anomalous Hall effect, a quantum phenomenon that has previously been associated with long-range magnetic order.
Charged particles such as electrons can behave in interacting ways when moving under the influence of electric and magnetic fields. For instance, when a magnetic field is applied perpendicular to the plane of a current-carrying conductor, the electrons flowing within start to deviate sideways due to magnetic force and soon enough, a voltage difference appears across the conductor. This phenomenon is famously called the "Hall effect." However, the Hall effect does not necessarily require fiddling with magnets. In fact, it can be observed in magnetic materials with long-range magnetic order, such as ferromagnets, for free!
Named "anomalous Hall effect" (AHE), this phenomenon appears to be a close cousin of the Hall effect. However, its mechanism is way more involved. Currently, the most accepted one is that the AHE is produced by a property of the electronic energy bands called "Berry curvature," which results from an interaction between the electron's spin and its motion inside the material, more commonly known as "spin-orbit interaction."
----"It is naturally understood that the CMR observed in EuAs is caused by a coupling between the diluted carriers and localized Eu2+ spins that persist over a wide range of temperatures," comments Dr. Uchida.
What really stole the show, however, was the rise in Hall resistivity with temperature, which peaked at a temperature of 70 K, far above the AFM ordering temperature, demonstrating that large AHE was indeed possible without magnetic order. To understand what caused this unconventionally large AHE, the team performed model calculations, which showed that the effect could be attributed to a skew scattering of electrons by a spin cluster on the triangular lattice in a "hopping regime" where the electrons did not flow but rather "hopped" from atom to atom.
These results bring us one step closer to understanding the strange behavior of electrons inside magnetic solids. "Our findings have helped shed light on triangular-lattice magnetic semiconductors and could potentially lead to a new field of research targeting diluted carriers coupled to unconventional spin orderings and fluctuations," comments an optimistic Dr. Uchida
“More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly.”
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