Baltic Dry Index. 1731 -33 Brent Crude 87.38
Spot Gold 1818
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 18/01/22 World 331,566,137
Deaths 5,563,797
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
H.
L. Mencken.
In the Asian stock casinos, more worry over less stimulus and rising interest rates. Rising crude oil prices too.
An increased global omicron infection rate.
The risk/reward balance continues to swing in favour of risk. Time for all but high risk gamblers to be out of the market awaiting more clarity.
Asia-Pacific markets lose momentum as major indexes across the region decline
SINGAPORE — Asia-Pacific markets lost momentum Tuesday afternoon as major indexes across the region erased earlier gains, but oil prices trended higher.
The session followed a quiet day on Wall Street where the U.S. markets were closed for a public holiday.
In Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 0.27% and the Topix index was down 0.44%.
Japan’s central bank left its short-term interest rate target unchanged at -0.1%, in line with market expectations, and said it will purchase a necessary amount of Japanese government bonds such that the 10-year JGB yields will remain at around 0%.
The Bank of Japan also raised its near-term inflation expectations: for the fiscal year starting in April, inflation forecast was raised from an earlier estimate of 0.9% to 1.1%. For fiscal 2023, inflation expectation was raised from 1% to 1.1%.
Still, those figures remain below the central bank’s inflation target of 2%. Unlike global peers such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, BOJ said it will continue with its quantitative and qualitative monetary easing with yield curve control for “as long as it is necessary” to achieve and maintain the 2% inflation target.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lost 0.14%, but the tech-focused Hang Seng Tech index rose 0.44% despite trimming most of its earlier gains.
Australia’s ASX 200 fell 0.16% as the heavily weighted financials subindex faltered 0.36%.
South Korea’s Kospi index dropped 1.01% and the Kosdaq was down 1.49%. In India, the Nifty 50 slipped 0.39% and the Sensex was down 0.13%.
Chinese mainland shares bucked the broadly downward trend: The Shanghai composite was up 0.94% while the Shenzhen component added 0.3%.
Global interest rates continue to climb on expectations of faster central bank tightening, according to Tapas Strickland, director for economics and markets at the National Australia Bank.
“As for central bank pricing, markets now fully price four rate hikes from the US Fed in 2022, and the timing of the first ECB rate hike has been brought forward to September. The exception is China with the [People’s Bank of China] cutting rates by 10bps yesterday amid an uncertain growth outlook,” he wrote in a Tuesday morning note.
Chinese President Xi Jinping cautioned against a rapid rise in interest rates on Monday that could derail the global recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.
“If major economies slam on the brakes or take a U-turn in their monetary policies, there would be serious negative spillovers,” Xi said via videoconference at The Davos Agenda virtual event.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/18/asia-markets-interest-rates-opec-report-dollar-moves.html
Japan ready to expand COVID restrictions as infections surge
TOKYO (AP) — Japan’s government is preparing social restrictions in Tokyo and other regions as the omicron variant of the coronavirus infects more people.
Japan has never had a lockdown during the pandemic but has focused instead on asking restaurants and bars to close early. Crowds are back in many parts of Japan, with people packing stores and events, while COVID-19 cases jump.
The order will be finalized this week and is likely to take effect Friday for Tokyo and nine other regions, including Chiba, Kanagawa, Aichi and Kumamoto, the government spokesman said Tuesday.
An order was issued earlier this month for Okinawa, Yamaguchi and Hiroshima prefectures. Other areas seeing surging infections, such as Osaka, may be added later.
He acknowledged additional action may be needed if the numbers of people shoot up, required to undergo quarantine or hospitalization.
About 80% of the Japanese population have received two vaccine shots, but only 1% the booster. The government has promised to speed up boosters, but most people won’t be getting them until after March or later, under the current schedule.
“The infections are rising at an unprecedented speed,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno told reporters.
Worries are growing about infections spreading so quickly that hospital systems may get stretched thin, he said.
More
Australia suffers deadliest day of pandemic as Omicron drives up hospital cases
January 18, 2022 4:43 AM GMT
SYDNEY, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Australia suffered its deadliest day of the pandemic on Tuesday as a fast-moving Omicron outbreak continued to push up hospitalisation rates to record levels, even as daily infections eased slightly.
Australia is dealing with its worst COVID-19 outbreak, fuelled by the Omicron variant of the coronavirus that has put more people in hospitals and intensive care than at any time during the pandemic.
A total of 77 deaths was recorded, exceeding the previous national high of 57 last Thursday, official data showed.
"Today, is a very difficult day for our state," New South Wales (NSW) Premier Dominic Perrottet said during a media briefing as the state reported 36 deaths, a new pandemic high.
Only four of those who died in NSW had received their booster shot, prompting the state's health officials to urge people to avoid delays and get their third dose soon. Thirty-three were double-dosed.
"There needs to be a sense of urgency in embracing the booster doses," NSW Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant said. "For Omicron, we know that the protection is lower and we need that next boosting to get that higher level of protection."
The surge in case numbers battered consumer confidence last week, an ANZ survey on Tuesday showed, triggering self-imposed lockdowns and stifling spending even as states looked to avoid lockdowns and keep businesses open.
----Amid rising hospitalisations, Victoria on Tuesday declared a "code brown" in hospitals, usually reserved for shorter-term emergencies, that would give hospitals the power to cancel non-urgent health services and cancel staff leave.
More
In oil news, demand is exceeding supply. More inflation is highly likely. Stagflation?
Oil climbs as supplies expected to remain tight
January 17, 20227:03 PM GMT
Jan 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Monday with investors betting that global supply will remain tight, although restraint by major producers was partially offset by a rise in Libyan output.
Brent crude settled up 42 cents, or 0.5%, to $86.48 a barrel. Earlier in the session, the contract touched its highest price since Oct. 3, 2018, at $86.71.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 53 cents, or 0.6%, at $84.35 after touching its highest price since Nov. 10 at $84.78. Trade was subdued due to the U.S. holiday honoring slain civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr.
Frantic oil buying, driven by supply outages and signs the Omicron coronavirus variant will not be as disruptive to fuel demand as previously feared, has pushed some crude grades to multi-year highs, suggesting the rally in Brent futures could be sustained for a while longer, traders said. read more
"The bullish sentiment is continuing as (producer group) OPEC+ is not providing enough supply to meet strong global demand," said Fujitomi Securities analyst Toshitaka Tazawa.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+, are gradually relaxing output cuts implemented when demand collapsed in 2020.
But many smaller producers cannot increase supply and others have been wary of pumping too much oil in case of renewed COVID-19 setbacks. read more
Meanwhile, Libya's total oil output is back to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), according to National Oil Corp. Libyan output was about 900,000 bpd last week owing to a blockade of western oilfields. read more
"Libya’s oil production had dropped to a good 700,000 bpd at the start of the year, which had played its part in the price rise," said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch.
Concerns over supply constraints outweighed the news of China's possible oil release from reserves, said Fujitomi's Tazawa.
Sources told Reuters that China plans to release oil reserves around the Lunar New Year holidays between Jan. 31 and Feb. 6 as part of a plan coordinated by the United States to reduce global prices. read more
More
Finally, Project Fear Covid Edition. How the UK Sage “experts” got omicron so wrong. With fear mongering experts like these, who needs amateurs? Garbage in – garbage out.
Sage scenarios vs actual: an update
16 January 2022, 7:00am
Deaths could hit 6,000 a day,’ reported the newspapers on 17 December. A day later documents for the 99th meeting of Sage were released which said that, without restrictions over and above ‘Plan B’, deaths would range from 600 to 6,000 a day. A summary of Sage advice, prepared for the Cabinet, gave three models of what could happen next:
· Do nothing (ie, stick with 'Plan B') and face "a minimum peak" of 3,000 hospitalisations a day and 600 to 6,000 deaths a day
· Implement ‘Stage 2’ restrictions (household bubbles, etc) and cut daily deaths to a lower range: 500 to 3,000.
· Implement ‘Stage 1’ restrictions (stay-at-home mandates) and cut deaths even further: to a range of 200 to 2,000 a day
After a long and fractious cabinet debate, the decision was to do nothing and wait for more data. 'Government ignores scientists’ advice,' fumed the BMJ. But the decision not to act meant that the quality of Sage advice can now be tested, its 'scenarios' compared to actual.
Sage/Warwick hospitalisations
Let’s start with the Warwick model. It published various Covid scenarios depending on Omicron’s possible ‘severity’: 100 per cent as severe as Delta, 50 per cent, 20 per cent and 10 per cent. A UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) document released on New Year’s Eve said: 'the risk of presentation to emergency care or hospital admission with Omicron was approximately half of that for Delta’. That's still its best estimate. So we open with the 50 per cent severity scenario. Here’s how Warwick’s model is performing for hospital admissions:
---- The Spectator’s data team has been using new techniques to follow Sage graphs: scanning software that lets us interpolate the hidden values (the figures are, oddly, not released) and an API Covid data feed that lets us compare Sage scenarios to the eventual reality. But it’s surely time for a proper public inquiry to look into how these Sage ‘scenarios’ were put together and presented to policymakers and the public.
More
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-did-sage-scenarios-compare-to-reality-an-update
The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.
H.
L. Mencken.
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Nampa cheese factory boosts pay, benefits to attract workers. Here’s how much
Mon, January 17, 2022, 11:00 AM
Facing expanded production at its Nampa cheese plant and an increasingly competitive labor market, Lactalis American Group is investing $30 million in increased wages for workers and upgrading equipment.
Workers at the Lactalis cheese factory in Nampa will see up to a 13% increase in wages and an average 10% across all positions, the company says. The factory, which employs 820 people, has 42 job openings and hopes to attract applicants with the higher pay.
The equipment upgrade means the plant likely will need even more workers.
“We are growing and continuing to hire more people, and with the situation in the Treasure Valley job market, we want to attract people who want a career,” said Olivier Delobbe, Nampa deputy site director for Lactalis, by phone. “We can provide a good career path from entry level positions and higher.”
The factory, at 4912 E. Franklin Road, makes mozzarella and string cheese. The company says it uses mostly local ingredients from 40 small dairies in the Treasure Valley.
Delobbe said Lactalis is also opening up its medical insurance for new hires the first month they start. Until now, workers have had to wait three or four months before they are eligible.
He also said the Nampa plant is offering higher premium pay for less-desirable shifts, like weekends and nights.
The entry level starting wage is increasing from between $15.50 and $23.30 per hour to between $17 and $26.50 per hour, based on skills and experience, Lactalis said in a news release.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/nampa-cheese-factory-boosts-pay-110000340.html
Orange-Juice Prices Climb After Forecasts for the Smallest Crop Since 1945
Jan. 17, 2022 5:30 am ET
Government agricultural forecasters said they expect the smallest Florida orange crop since World War II, touching off a rally in juice futures that were already at their highest level in years because of the pandemic.
The U.S. Agriculture Department said last week that it expects Florida to produce 44.5 million 90-pound boxes of oranges this year, trimming its already low expectations and predicting that the crop will wind up smaller than the one that was ruined by 2017’s Hurricane Irma. If the forecast is accurate, it will be the smallest harvest since 1945.
More
China’s zero-Covid policy could deal another blow to global supply chains, Moody’s says
Published Sun, Jan 16 2022 7:45 PM EST
Supply chain disruptions are being prolonged driven largely by China’s strict zero-Covid policy, according to an economist from Moody’s Analytics.
The bottlenecks have lasted for about a year now but are expected to “materially ease in the early months of this year,” said Katrina Ell, a senior economist for Asia-Pacific at Moody’s Analytics.
“So we would start to see material downward pressure on things like producer prices, input prices that kind of thing. But given China’s zero-Covid policy and how they tend to shut down important ports and factories — that really increases disruption,” she told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Friday, adding it amplifies ongoing supply chain pressures.
Beijing has imposed a strict zero-Covid policy since the pandemic began in early 2020. It entails strict quarantines and travel restrictions — whether within a city or with other countries — to control outbreaks.
Restrictions aimed at containing Covid-19 have impacted manufacturing and shipping operations globally, exacerbating the supply chain crisis. There have been renewed concerns that the highly infections omicron variant could also deal another blow to the shipping industry.
China’s zero-Covid policy “really does increase the downside risks for material improvement in supply chains,” Ell noted, saying there will be “important ramifications for inflation and also central bank policy-making in the next couple of months.”
This is especially true given Beijing’s economic weight and importance on the global stage.
More
Rising costs add to pandemic pain for small businesses
NEW YORK (AP) — In just two weeks, the cost of pecans for the pies at Peggy Jean’s Pies in Columbia, Missouri, has surged nearly 40%, perplexing co-owner Rebecca Miller and adding to the cost of doing business. Miller will soon have to bump up the price of her Southern Pecan, Chocolate Bourbon Pecan, and German Chocolate pies by $2 to $24.
While pecans have risen the most, Miller is seeing price increases across the board, from blackberries to condensed milk and eggs. She consults with three food brokers weekly to source the lowest prices for ingredients. But she still needs to charge more for the nut pies.
“We can’t absorb that cost and still meet wage demands, increased cost of goods in our tins and boxes, and afford to live as a family,” she said.
Sharply higher costs are yet another challenge thrown at business owners by the global pandemic. The unpredictability of shipping, labor and the coronavirus itself have created an environment where owners are often left guessing about when products might arrive and how much they’ll cost. The Labor Department said Thursday that prices at the wholesale level rose a record 9.7% in December from a year ago.
“There’s a tremendous amount of not just risk — risk you can calculate — but uncertainty. We just don’t know what’s going to happen.” said Ray Keating, chief economist with the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council. “Consumer demand is there, but there are just enormous supply chain constraints. All of this is feeding into price increases.”
In response, owners are raising prices, cutting staff hours, dropping some goods and services and nixing free shipping in a delicate balancing act. But with low visibility into how long the higher inflation will last, some owners are increasingly worried about keeping their doors open in the long run.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Israeli study shows 4th shot of COVID-19 vaccine less effective on Omicron
January 17, 20224:38 PM GMT
JERUSALEM, Jan 17 (Reuters) - A fourth shot of COVID-19 vaccine boosts antibodies to even higher levels than the third jab but it is not enough to prevent Omicron infections, according to a preliminary study in Israel.
Israel's Sheba Medical Center has given second booster shots in a trial among its staff and is studying the effect of the Pfizer booster in 154 people after two weeks and the Moderna booster in 120 people after one week, said Gili Regev-Yochay, director of the Infectious Diseases Unit.
These were compared to a control group that did not receive the fourth shot. Those in the Moderna group had previously received three shots of Pfizer's vaccine, the hospital said.
The vaccines led to a increase in the number of antibodies "even a little bit higher than what we had after the third dose", said Regev-Yochay.
"Yet, this is probably not enough for the Omicron," she told reporters. "We know by now that the level of antibodies needed to protect and not to got infected from Omicron is probably too high for the vaccine, even if it's a good vaccine."
The findings, which the hospital said were the first of its kind in the world, were preliminary and not yet published.
Israel was the fastest country to roll out initial vaccinations against COVID-19 a year ago and last month started offering a fourth shot, or a second booster, to the most vulnerable and high-risk groups.
China says freight train trade with North Korea resumes after two years
Issued on: 17/01/2022 - 09:44
Beijing (AFP) – China said Monday that its border with North Korea has reopened for freight train trade, some two years after it was shuttered by Pyongyang because of the coronavirus pandemic.
A freight train from North Korea arrived at the Chinese border city of Dandong for the first time since early 2020 on Sunday, Japanese and South Korean media reported earlier.
China confirmed those reports on Monday.
"Due to the impact of the pandemic, rail traffic between China and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) had been suspended for some time," said foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian at a routine briefing, referring to North Korea by its official name.
"Now freight trains carrying goods between Dandong and the DPRK have resumed operation. This work will be conducted in accordance with pandemic prevention measures," Zhao added.
Impoverished North Korea sealed off its borders in January 2020 at the start of the pandemic, choking off all land traffic to and from its giant northern neighbour.
China and North Korea share an 1,352 kilometre-long border, while the port city of Dandong -- home to the North Korean customs office -- sits on the Yalu River which forms the border.
A close economic ally, China accounts for more than 90 per cent of the isolated country's bilateral trade.
North Korea has long been subject to sanctions that have mostly crippled its international trade.
The country claims no virus cases inside its borders but it is reportedly struggling with chronic winter food shortages and reeling economically from its self-imposed coronavirus blockade.
China virus cases highest in nearly two years, weeks before Olympics
Issued on: 17/01/2022 - 09:46
Beijing (AFP) – The number of Covid-19 cases in China reached its highest level since March 2020 on Monday, as Beijing races to smother outbreaks just three weeks before hosting the Winter Olympics.
China, where the virus first emerged in late 2019, has stuck to a strict policy of targeting zero Covid cases even as the rest of the world has reopened.
But its approach has come under sustained pressure in recent weeks with multiple clusters across the country just as the Games are about to get under way in Beijing.
On Monday there were 223 more cases reported in China, including another 80 in the virus-hit port city of Tianjin, and nine more -- including cases of the highly transmissible Omicron variant -- in the southern manufacturing hub of Guangdong.
Athletes and officials have already started to land in the capital ahead of the Games, immediately entering a tightly controlled bubble separating them from the rest of the population.
But after a local Omicron case was detected in Beijing over the weekend, authorities have also tightened regulations for those arriving in the capital from elsewhere in China.
The city is now demanding a negative test before travel and a follow-up test after entering the city, with residents urged not to leave the city for the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday.
Some tourist sites in the capital have also been closed.
Strain on economy
The infected woman in Beijing had not travelled or had contact with infected people, authorities said, as they tested some 13,000 people living or working in the same area.
Health official Pang Xinghuo told reporters Monday the virus had been found on the surface of a letter the infected person had received from Canada, as well as inside the unopened letter.
Dozens of letters from the same batch were tested, and five showed positive traces of Covid-19, she said, including samples from inside unopened letters.
The strain was different from Omicron cases in China, and similar to strains identified from North America last month, she said.
"We come to the conclusion that the possibility of virus infection through inbound objects cannot be ruled out," she said.
Beijing's theory the virus did not originate in China but was imported in frozen food was judged "possible" but very unlikely in a report from World Health Organization-appointed international experts last year.
China has linked some virus clusters to products imported from overseas.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the US says on its website that it is "possible" for people to be infected through contact with contaminated surfaces or objects -- but the risk is low.
Within three days, there should be a 99 percent reduction of virus traces left on surfaces.
Analysts have warned that China's ongoing zero-Covid approach -- which includes swift and targeted lockdowns and travel restrictions -- will increasingly weigh on the economy.
More
World's COVID-19 cases rise 14%; India up 113%, Brazil 109%
Jan. 16, 2022 / 2:47 PM / Updated at 12:24 AM
Jan. 16 (UPI) -- COVID-19 cases rose 14% worldwide in one week as India and Brazil, two nations with the most infection behind the United States, are each up around 2.5 times in one week after comparatively low numbers.
The Omicron strain, which was first detected by scientists in South Africa on Nov. 24, has surpassed the Delta variant throughout the world.
In one week, infections rose 19,461,854 for a total of 328,677,616, according to tracking by Worldometers.info. On Thursday, cases hit a daily record of 3,333,946 and it subsided Saturday to 2,427,109. On Dec. 13, it was down to 480,954. During the height of the Dela variant spike, cases reached 904,084 on April 29.
Deaths went up 9% or 48,724 for a toll of 5,557,596. The previous seven days the rise was 1%.
India's cases rose 113%, climbing 271,202 Sunday for a total of 37,122,164, second in the world behind the United States' 66,995,533, which dropped 7%. The United States, with a population of 334 million, also has the most deaths at 873,564, rising 7%.
More
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Proof of concept verifies physics that could enable quantum batteries
Michael Irving January 16, 2022
Quantum batteries could one day revolutionize energy storage through what seems like a paradox – the bigger the battery, the faster it charges. For the first time, a team of scientists has now demonstrated the quantum mechanical principle of superabsorption that underpins quantum batteries in a proof-of-concept device.
The quirky world of quantum physics is full of phenomena that seem impossible to us. Molecules, for instance, can be become so entwined that they begin acting collectively, and this can lead to a range of quantum effects. That includes superabsorption, which boosts a molecule’s ability to absorb light.
“Superabsorption is a quantum collective effect where transitions between the states of the molecules interfere constructively,” James Quach, corresponding author of the study, told New Atlas. “Constructive interference occurs in all kinds of waves (light, sound, waves on water), and occurs when different waves add up to give a larger effect than either wave on its own. Crucially this allows the combined molecules to absorb light more efficiently than if each molecule were acting individually.”
In a quantum battery, this phenomenon would have a very clear benefit. The more energy-storing molecules you have, the more efficiently they’ll be able to absorb that energy – in other words, the bigger you make the battery, the faster it will charge.
At least, that’s how it should work in theory. Superabsorption had yet to be demonstrated on a scale large enough to build quantum batteries, but the new study has now managed just that. To build their test device, the researchers placed an active layer of light-absorbing molecules – a dye known as Lumogen-F Orange – in a microcavity between two mirrors.
“The mirrors in this microcavity were made using a standard method to make high quality mirrors,” explained Quach. “This is to use alternating layers of dielectric materials – silicon dioxide and niobium pentoxide – to create what is known as a ‘distributed Bragg reflector.’ This produces mirrors which reflect much more of the light than a typical metal/glass mirror. This is important as we want light to stay inside the cavity as long as possible.”
The team then used ultrafast transient-absorption spectroscopy to measure how the dye molecules were storing the energy and how fast the whole device was charging. And sure enough, as the size of the microcavity and the number of molecules increased, the charging time decreased, demonstrating superabsorption at work.
More
The whole gospel of Karl Marx can be summed up in a single sentence: Hate the man who is better off than you are. Never under any circumstances admit that his success may be due to his own efforts, to the productive contribution he has made to the whole community. Always attribute his success to the exploitation, the cheating, the more or less open robbery of others. Never under any circumstances admit that your own failure may be owing to your own weakness, or that the failure of anyone else may be due to his own defects - his laziness, incompetence, improvidence, or stupidity.
Henry Hazlitt.
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