Baltic Dry Index. 3228 -72 Brent Crude 76.23
Spot Gold 1813
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 14/07/21 World 188,616,093
Deaths 4,065,804
George Goodman, aka Adam Smith, The Money Game. 1968. (Until March 2020)
US consumer price inflation is soaring, but don’t worry it’s only temporary says Fed Chairman Powell and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Anyway, just keep paying more for the same goods and services.
Well maybe their right, but what if their wrong about inflation being temporary? Keep in mind the Fed and the US Treasury has never seen a recession nor inflation coming. All they’ve ever forecast is a Goldilocks economy forever.
Still not to worry, President “build back better” is on the case, promising at least another 4 trillion of new fiat dollars for “infrastructure” projects, with “infrastructure” now including child welfare payments and bribes to Democrat voters to promote minority inclusion.
Bread and Circuses, and the decline and fall of the Roman Empire comes to mind.
Still this time it’s different, right?
We’re smarter, more powerful, richer, more arrogant than anything the Roman’s ever thought up as they tried debasing the currency in a futile attempt at appeasing the masses.
We have cryptocurrency and digital currencies coming to bailout the now failing Great Nixonian Error of fiat money. I mean, what could possibly go wrong?
George Orwell.
Asia-Pacific stocks mostly fall after hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation report; New Zealand dollar jumps
SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia-Pacific mostly slipped in Wednesday trade following a hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation report released overnight.
The Shanghai composite in mainland China declined 0.82% by the afternoon while the Shenzhen component fell 0.379%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index shed 0.58%.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 slipped 0.27% while the Topix index sat on the flatline. The Kospi in South Korea dipped 0.35%.
Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 edged 0.12% higher.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.28%.
In other developments, Singapore’s economy grew 14.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, official advanced estimates showed Wednesday. It was slightly above economist expectations for a 14.2% year-on-year jump, according to a Reuters poll.
Still, the economy contracted by 2% as compared with the previous quarter, Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry said.
The Straits Times index in Singapore shed 0.18% in Wednesday trade.
Overnight on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 107.39 points to 34,888.79 while the S&P 500 slipped 0.35% to 4,369.21. The Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.38% to 14,677.65.
The losses stateside came after the U.S. Labor Department reported Tuesday that in June inflation surged at its fastest pace in nearly 13 years. Consumer prices increase 5.4% in June as compared with a year earlier — the largest monthly gain since August 2008.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/14/asia-markets-us-inflation-singapore-gdp-data-currencies-oil.html
Inflation climbs higher than expected in June as price index rises 5.4%
Inflation surged in June at its fastest pace in nearly 13 years amid a burst in used vehicle costs and price increases in food and energy, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.
The consumer price index increased 5.4% from a year earlier, the largest jump since August 2008, just before the worst of the financial crisis. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a 5% gain.
Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 4.5%, the sharpest move for that measure since September 1991 and well above the estimate of 3.8%.
On a monthly basis, headline and core prices rose 0.9% against 0.5% estimates.
Stock market futures fell following the report, while government bond yields, which have been down precipitously, were mixed.
“What this really shows is inflation pressures remain more acute than appreciated and are going to be with us for a longer period,” said Sarah House, senior economist for Wells Fargo’s corporate and investment bank. “We are seeing areas where there’s going to be ongoing inflation pressure even after we get past some of those acute price hikes in a handful of sectors.”
A separate report from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that the big monthly hike in consumer prices translated into negative real wages for workers. Real average hourly earnings fell 0.5% for the month, as a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings was more than negated by the CPI increase.
Inflation has been escalating due to several factors, including supply-chain bottlenecks, extraordinarily high demand as the Covid-19 pandemic eases and year-over-year comparisons to a time when the economy was struggling to reopen in the early months of the crisis.
Policymakers at the Federal Reserve and the White House expect the current pressures to begin to ease, though central bank officials have acknowledged that inflation is stronger and perhaps more durable than they had anticipated.
----Fed Chairman Jerome Powell likely will be asked for his views on inflation when he speaks Wednesday and Thursday to separate House and Senate panels. Powell has been steadfast that inflationary pressures are primarily transitory, though a Fed report Friday indicated that upside risks are increasing.
“This does increase some of the jitters among some [Fed] members,” Wells Fargo’s House said. “We already saw they were getting more worried about inflation at the June meeting. If you parse through this, there are a number of areas where inflation is picking up and likely has staying power. That’s going to make some folks nervous.”
More
Dow falls 107 points after record inflation report
July 13, 2021 / 5:04 PM
July 13 (UPI) -- U.S. markets fell Tuesday, reversing gains from the start of the week, following a report detailing surging consumer prices.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 107.39 points, or 0.31%, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.46%.
Tuesday's losses came as the Department of Labor issued a report Tuesday stating that consumer prices in the United States increased 5.4% between June 2020 and June 2021, the steepest 12-month increase in more than a decade.
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly told CNBC she believes the recent inflation will be temporary and that strong economic recovery could potentially allow the central bank to taper asset purchases by the end of 2021 or early 2022.
The 10-year U.S. treasury yield jumped about 0.5% above the 1.4% level in response to the inflation numbers.
"A white-hot June CPI print has the markets jittery," Cliff Hodge, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Wealth, said. "Moving forward we expect these inflation numbers to begin to cool. June 2020 was the absolute low for Core CPI during the pandemic shutdown, so the comparisons get tougher from here."
Tuesday also marked the start of second-quarter earnings reports, with JPMorgan Chase falling 1.72% after posting earnings of $11.9 billion, or $3.78 per share, while Goldman Sachs stock dipped 1.19% reporting earnings of $15.02 per share.
More
Finally, unicorn trading loses much of its shine. But the EUSSR gets closer.
And let’s not get started on the tether tither. Is tether a fraud and Ponzi scheme? I don’t know, but if not they go far out of their way to act like one, Bernie Madoff style.
Cryptocurrency trading volume plunges as interest wanes following bitcoin price drop
Published Mon, Jul 12 2021 4:14 PM EDT Updated Mon, Jul 12 2021 7:06 PM EDT
Cryptocurrencies are in a summer slump as they navigate a two-month correction period following a string of negative stories.
Trading volumes at the largest exchanges, including Coinbase, Kraken, Binance and Bitstamp, fell more than 40% in June, according to data from crypto market data provider CryptoCompare, which cited lower prices and lower volatility as the reason for the drop.
In June the price of bitcoin hit a monthly low of $28,908, according to the report, and ended the month down 6%. A daily volume maximum of $138.2 billion on June 22 was down 42.3% from the intra-month high in May.
The report pointed to China as a major catalyst, according to Reuters, which reported on it earlier Monday. China’s latest of many efforts over the years to crack down on the industry have had a greater impact than ever before. Investors and experts in the cryptocurrency ecosystem still see a long-term positive trend for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, however.
“The Chinese crackdown has caused a lot of fear, which is showing up in markets,” said Teddy Vallee, chief investment officer at Pervalle Global. “The digital asset ecosystem got punched in the face, so it’s currently up against the ropes versus fighting in the middle of the ring. Typically when you have large sell-offs, participants are quite fearful and pull back their chips.”
Vallee added that he still isn’t seeing large flows back off exchanges, funding rates are still negative, the number of new wallets is lower.
---- Additionally, the emerging ESG narrative around bitcoin’s proof-of-work consensus mechanism and negative regulatory undertones from the Financial Action Task Force, the intergovernmental anti-money laundering watchdog, have dragged the mood down even further in the markets, Ben Forman, managing partner at alternative investment firm ParaFi Capital, told CNBC. ESG stands for environmental, social and governance factors.
More
British police seize record $408 million haul of cryptocurrency
July 13, 20218:06 AM BST
LONDON, July 13 (Reuters) - British police have seized record hauls of cryptocurrency totalling 294 million pounds ($408 million) as part of an investigation into money laundering after organised crime groups moved into cyptocurrencies to wash their dirty money.
More
ECB inches closer to 'digital euro'
Issued on:
The European Central Bank is expected to take the next step towards a "digital euro" Wednesday by launching the project's exploration phase, but questions remain about potential pitfalls and benefits for eurozone citizens.
The move comes as the coronavirus pandemic has hastened a shift away from cash, and as central bankers around the world nervously track the rise of private cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.
Here's a look at what a digital euro would mean for the 19-nation club.
- What is a digital euro? –
A digital euro, sometimes dubbed "e-euro", would be an electronic version of euro notes and coins.
It would for the first time allow individuals (and companies) to have deposits directly with the ECB. This could be safer than with commercial banks, which could go bust, or than holding cash that could be stolen or lost.
The ECB has promised that any future digital euro would be "a fast, easy and secure way" to make payments. The service would be free and payments could be made by card or smartphone.
This would allow the Frankfurt-based institution to compete with foreign card companies such as Visa and Mastercard or digital payment services like PayPal, sectors where no strong European players have emerged.
A digital euro would "complement cash, not replace it", the ECB has stressed.
The ECB is still studying which technology is best suited to develop the digital currency.
More
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210714-ecb-inches-closer-to-digital-euro
George Goodman, aka Adam Smith, The Money Game. 1968.
Global Inflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Survey: Consumers expect inflation to jump by nearly 5% in short term
July 12, 2021 / 5:43 PM
July 12 (UPI) -- U.S. households expect inflation will significantly worsen during the next 12 months, according to a survey released Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Consumers responding to the monthly survey by the New York Fed's Center for Microeconomic Data expected inflation to surge by 4.8% at the one-year horizon -- a sharp increase over the 4% level they expected in May.
It is the highest level of inflation expectations recorded since the survey began in 2013.
Medium-term expectations about inflation remained unchanged at 3.6% at the three-year horizon.
"The increase in the short-term measure was driven mostly by respondents who have some college education," the Fed reported.
The inflation worries are coming despite multiple reassurances by the Federal Reserve that increased prices seen as the economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic are temporary.
The core personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index, which examines changes in the cost of goods and services, climbed at its highest rate since 1992 during May, rising 0.5% to 3.4%.
More
Inflation Being Here to Stay Has PPG Preparing More Price Hikes
Sat, July 10, 2021, 7:00 AM
(Bloomberg) -- PPG Industries Inc. is repeatedly raising prices of the paint and coatings it sells to customers across industries as inflation in raw material and logistics costs pressures the $40 billion business.
The Pittsburgh-based company that gives Ford Motor Co. cars their color and sells sealants to the likes of Boeing Co. and Airbus SE anticipated an inflationary environment early this year, Chief Executive Officer Michael McGarry said in an interview. PPG was first to raise prices once, then a second time, he said.
“What we’re obviously studying now is the need to be out with a third set of price increases,” McGarry said. “Inflation is across-the-board, it’s obvious” and customers “don’t have a lot of good ways to counter the argument that we need to have price relief.”
With customers in the construction, consumer product and industrial sectors, plus manufacturing facilities and affiliates in more than 70 countries, PPG has a wide window into how the global economy is functioning. It’s feeling the pinch from the prices of oil, freight and distribution going up and raw materials running scarce. McGarry, 62, quibbles with the idea this is a temporary phenomenon related to reopenings from pandemic lockdowns.
“I’m not seeing this as transitory,” he said. “This work-from-home phenomenon is going to lead to additional wage inflation, because people are going to have the opportunities to figure out where they want to work.”
McGarry is already witnessing this in the U.S. and expects to see the trend spread to other regions. PPG plans to offer employees some flexibility, he said, with some expected to be in the office two or three days a week. Its staff in the U.S. are the most keen to work from home, followed by Europe and Latin America, the CEO said.
The price of paint going up would add to raw-material cost headwinds for automakers including Ford and Stellantis NV, who are among PPG’s biggest customers, according to Bloomberg supply chain analysis. While copper, steel, aluminum and other materials have been getting more expensive, the industry is coping well because the global semiconductor shortage has limited production and boosted their pricing power.
More
https://news.yahoo.com/inflation-being-stay-ppg-preparing-060000544.html
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible anyway, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"Every day, in every way, inflation is getting better and better"
Fed Chairman Powell, with apologies to Emile Coue.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Evaluation of the Effects of Remdesivir and Hydroxychloroquine on Viral Clearance in COVID-19
A Randomized Trial Original Research13 July 2021
Abstract
Background:
New treatment modalities are urgently needed for patients with COVID-19. The World Health Organization (WHO) Solidarity trial showed no effect of remdesivir or hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) on mortality, but the antiviral effects of these drugs are not known.
Objective:
To evaluate the effects of remdesivir and HCQ on all-cause, in-hospital mortality; the degree of respiratory failure and inflammation; and viral clearance in the oropharynx.
---- Setting:
23 hospitals in Norway.
---- Results:
No significant differences were seen between treatment groups in mortality during hospitalization. There was a marked decrease in SARS-CoV-2 load in the oropharynx during the first week overall, with similar decreases and 10-day viral loads among the remdesivir, HCQ, and SoC groups. Remdesivir and HCQ did not affect the degree of respiratory failure or inflammatory variables in plasma or serum. The lack of antiviral effect was not associated with symptom duration, level of viral load, degree of inflammation, or presence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 at hospital admittance.
More
https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M21-0653
US COVID-19 cases rising again, doubling over three weeks
The COVID-19 curve in the U.S. is rising again after months of decline, with the number of new cases per day doubling over the past three weeks, driven by the fast-spreading delta variant, lagging vaccination rates and Fourth of July gatherings.
Confirmed infections climbed to an average of about 23,600 a day on Monday, up from 11,300 on June 23, according to Johns Hopkins University data. And all but two states — Maine and South Dakota — reported that case numbers have gone up over the past two weeks.
“It is certainly no coincidence that we are looking at exactly the time that we would expect cases to be occurring after the July Fourth weekend,” said Dr. Bill Powderly, co-director of the infectious-disease division at Washington University’s School of Medicine in St. Louis.
At the same time, parts of the country are running up against deep vaccine resistance, while the highly contagious mutant version of the coronavirus that was first detected in India is accounting for an ever-larger share of infections.
More
https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-us-cases-rising-03150d6404004711b80e9bd6ff0d410d
Living with COVID-19: Israel changes strategy as Delta variant hits
Maayan Lubell July 13, 20216:58 AM EDT
JERUSALEM, July 13 (Reuters) - Four weeks ago, Israel was celebrating a return to normal life in its battle with COVID-19.
After a rapid vaccination drive that had driven down coronavirus infections and deaths, Israelis had stopped wearing face masks and abandoned all social-distancing rules.
Then came the more infectious Delta variant, and a surge in cases that has forced Prime Minister Naftali Bennett to reimpose some COVID-19 restrictions and rethink strategy.
Under what he calls a policy of "soft suppression", the government wants Israelis to learn to live with the virus - involving the fewest possible restrictions and avoiding a fourth national lockdown that could do further harm to the economy.
As most Israelis in risk groups have now been vaccinated against COVID-19, Bennett is counting on fewer people than before falling seriously ill when infections rise.
"Implementing the strategy will entail taking certain risks but in the overall consideration, including economic factors, this is the necessary balance," Bennett said last week.
The main indicator guiding the move is the number of severe COVID-19 cases in hospital, currently around 45. Implementation will entail monitoring infections, encouraging vaccinations, rapid testing and information campaigns about face masks.
The strategy has drawn comparisons with the British government's plans to reopen England's economy from lockdown, though Israel is in the process of reinstating some curbs while London is lifting restrictions.
The curbs that have been reinstated include the mandatory wearing of face masks indoors and quarantine for all people arriving in Israel.
More
The Latest: Malaysia shuts virus-stricken vaccination center
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia — Malaysia shut down a mass vaccination center Tuesday after more than 200 medical staff and volunteers tested positive for the coronavirus.
Science Minister Khairy Jamaluddin said it was difficult to determine if the infections occurred at the center, while stressing that swift government action had stopped the cluster.
He urged people who were vaccinated at the center from Friday onward to isolate themselves for 10 days in case they develop symptoms.
Khairy, who is in charge of the national immunization program, said he ordered testing for all 453 workers at the center in central Selangor state after two volunteers contracted the virus. Khairy said the 204 whose results were positive had low viral loads, meaning the amount of virus in their bodies was small.
The center was shut for deep sanitization and all its workers were being isolated. Khairy said the center will reopen Wednesday with a new team of medical workers.
Despite a strict lockdown since June 1, the pandemic had worsened in Malaysia with total confirmed cases breaching 844,000 and more than 6,200 deaths. But vaccination has picked up pace, with nearly 11% of the population inoculated.
No need for third Pfizer coronavirus vaccine shot, FDA says
The FDA announcement came after BioNTech SE announced plans to seek US and European regulatory approval for a third dose of their COVID-19 shot amid the spread of variants and data.
By REUTERS JULY 13, 2021 08:06
COVID-19 vaccine maker Pfizer Inc met with federal health officials on Monday to discuss the need for a booster dose of the coronavirus vaccine as it prepares to seek authorization, the company said on Sunday.
The meeting comes days after the drugmaker and its partner BioNTech SE announced plans to seek US and European regulatory approval for a third dose of their COVID-19 shot amid the spread of variants and data they said showed heightened risk of infection six months after initial inoculation.
That push prompted a quick response from the US Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, saying Americans do not need a booster right now.
---- Fauci, in several television interviews on Sunday, said US health officials were not dismissing the possible future need for boosters -- especially as breakthrough infections among those who have been vaccinated have emerged -- but that more data is needed for any formal recommendation.
More
https://www.jpost.com/international/fda-no-need-for-third-pfizer-vaccine-shot-673665
Most fully vaccinated people who get Covid delta infections are asymptomatic, WHO says
Published Mon, Jul 12 2021 3:46 PM EDT Updated Mon, Jul 12 2021 6:26 PM EDT
People who are fully vaccinated against Covid-19 are still getting infected with the delta variant, but global health officials said the shots have protected most people from getting severely sick or dying.
“There are reports coming in that vaccinated populations have cases of infection, particularly with the delta variant,” Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, the World Health Organization’s chief scientist, said at a press briefing Monday. “The majority of these are mild or asymptomatic infections.”
However, hospitalizations are rising in some parts of the world, mostly where vaccination rates are low and the highly contagious delta variant is spreading, she said.
In the U.S., officials have said virtually all recent Covid hospitalizations and deaths were occurring among unvaccinated people. Breakthrough infections are rare, and about 75% of the people who die or are hospitalized with Covid after vaccination are over the age of 65, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“The delta variant is ripping around the world at a scorching pace, driving a new spike in cases and death. Not everywhere is taking the same hit, though,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said. “We are in the midst of a growing two-track pandemic where the haves and have-nots within and between countries are increasingly divergent in places with high vaccination coverage.”
The variant is spreading quickly and infecting unprotected and vulnerable people, he said.
Swaminathan warned that vaccinated people can still get Covid and pass it on to others, which is why WHO officials have been urging people to continue wearing masks and practice social distancing. “But certainly it reduces your chances of severe hospitalization and death significantly,” she added.
Some studies have shown that those infected with Covid after vaccination produce much less virus than those who are unvaccinated, reducing the risk of passing the virus to others.
WHO officials said that more studies are needed to understand the vaccines’ impact on transmissibility.
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
How Big Can Renewable Energy Get in the Next 10 Years?
The Biden administration wants 80% of U.S. power to come from clean sources. Three experts discuss whether that’s doable—and if so, how.
By Dan Weil July 12, 2021 11:00 am ET
Growth in clean energy is accelerating, both in the U.S. and abroad.
Last year, the world added a record of more than 260 gigawatts of renewable-electricity capacity, almost 50% more than in 2019, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency. The U.S. was one of the biggest growth markets, the agency said, adding 29 gigawatts of capacity, almost 80% more than the year before.
The U.S. now generates almost 20% of its electricity from renewable sources such as wind, solar and hydropower, while nuclear accounts for another roughly 20%. The Biden administration, which is targeting at least a 50% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030, wants Congress to pass its clean-electricity standard, which calls for 80% of U.S. power to come from clean sources by the end of the decade. To that end, the White House’s infrastructure proposal included billions of dollars of investment in renewable energy.
Can renewable energy get that big in the U.S. over the next decade? We asked three experts to weigh in: Kevin Book, managing director at Clearview Energy Partners in Washington, D.C.; Jesse Jenkins, assistant professor at Princeton University with a joint appointment in the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering and the Andlinger Center for Energy and Environment; and Leah Stokes, assistant professor of political science at University of California, Santa Barbara.
Here are edited excerpts of the discussion:
WSJ: The Biden administration wants 80% of U.S. power to come from clean energy by 2030. Do you think that is feasible?
MR. JENKINS: Our Princeton University Net-Zero America study charts several pathways to net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050. We see wind and solar playing a major role in all pathways, scaling up rapidly over the next decade.
Under the best scenario, wind and solar would provide about half our electricity by the end of the decade, up from about 12% over the last 12 months.
That would require building about 600 gigawatts of new wind and solar facilities, or about 60 gigawatts a year. That would mean putting the pedal to the metal, as the U.S. deployed a record of about 29 gigawatts last year.
More
https://www.wsj.com/articles/renewable-energy-us-power-11626098450?mod=mhp
But see below for why they just might be wrong.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
Freedom is the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.
George Orwell.
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