Monday, 12 July 2021

And A Great Time Was Had By All.

Baltic Dry Index. 3300 +19   Brent Crude 75.43

Spot Gold 1804

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 12/07/21 World 187,645,253

Deaths 4,049,317

Everybody is ignorant, only on different subjects.

Will Rogers.

In weekend trivia news, Pakistan beat Zimbabwe at cricket, Italy beat England in Euro football, someone won the men’s final at Wimbledon, Richard Branson and 5 others almost got into space, and the great north-western American heatwave showed no sign of breaking, as did rising global inflation.

And according to mainstream media, a great time was had by all. Or was all had by a great time?

Back in the real world, while space tourism arrives and half the world lives on two dollars a day, it is too dry in the western half of north America, to wet in the UK and Ireland and much of western Europe, and unseasonably hot in Moscow and much of Siberia. 

What all that means for global food production is an open question, but experience tells me that it’s not good.

In our global stock casinos, too much newly created global fiat money continues to pursue too few stocks. 

In commodities, the top down switch to a “green” electric and hydrogen economy, is in its infancy and just setting off the greatest new commodity Supercycle of all time.

But do they all live happily ever after? Well, we are about to find out.

Asia shares bounce as mood shifts, sentiment fickle

July 12, 2021

TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES, N.M.—Richard Branson reached the edge of space and safely returned to Earth, a trip that marks a turning point in the billionaire entrepreneur’s multidecade effort to help create a space-tourism industry.

The space trip that Mr. Branson and five other crew members completed Sunday morning on a Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. rocket plane lends credence to the company’s ability to safely take passengers to and from space.

Virgin Galactic, the company Mr. Branson founded, plans to initiate commercial service next year, charging passengers hundreds of thousands of dollars each for such flights. The test flight was aimed at evaluating systems and the passenger experience, as well as providing additional validation of its safety. Vehicles developed by private space companies have been tested a fraction of the number of times compared with the planes used by airlines.

The British entrepreneur and five crew members crossed one threshold of space, climbing 53.5 miles above the Earth’s surface.

More

https://www.wsj.com/articles/richard-bransons-virgin-galactic-set-for-travel-to-space-in-sunday-flight-11626002209?mod=hp_lead_pos1

California and other parts of the West broil and burn

Firefighters working in searing heat struggled to contain the largest wildfire in California this year while state power operators urged people to conserve energy after a huge wildfire in neighboring Oregon disrupted the flow of electricity from three major transmission lines.

A large swath of the West baked during the weekend in triple-digit temperatures that were expected to continue into the start of the work week. The California Independent System Operator that manages the state’s power grid issued a five-hour ”flex alert” starting at 4 p.m. Monday and asked consumers to “conserve as much electricity as possible” to avoid any outages.

California and other parts of the West are sinking deeper into drought and that has sent fire danger sky high in many areas. In Arizona, a small plane crashed Saturday during a survey of a wildfire in rural Mohave County, killing both crew members.

The Beech C-90 aircraft was helping perform reconnaissance over the lightning-caused Cedar Basin Fire, near the tiny community of Wikieup northwest of Phoenix.

---- A wildfire in southeast Washington grew to almost 60 square miles (155 square kilometers) as it blackened grass and timber while it moved into the Umatilla National Forest.

In Idaho, Gov. Brad Little declared a wildfire emergency Friday and mobilized the state’s National Guard to help fight fires sparked after lightning storms swept across the drought-stricken region.

https://apnews.com/article/fires-environment-and-nature-heat-waves-6b4bd2147d7185049405c176979e0615

In global tax news, the Biden led G-20 is preparing to tax itself into prosperity. Good luck getting that past the very bipartisan, bribable US Senate, when it comes to taxation.   

Janet Yellen says tax changes for large firms may not be ready until 2022

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that a new mechanism to allow more countries to tax large, highly profitable multinational firms may not be ready for consideration by lawmakers until the spring of 2022.

Yellen told a news conference after a G20 finance leaders meeting in Venice in Italy that the OECD “Pillar 1” re-allocation of taxing rights was on a “slightly slower track” than a global corporate minimum tax of at least 15% as part of a major tax deal among 132 countries.

G20 finance ministers and central bank governors endorsed the deal over the weekend, but questions remain over the ability of U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration to persuade a deeply divided Congress to ratify the changes.

Yellen said she hoped to include provisions to implement the so-called “Pillar 2” global minimum tax into a budget “reconciliation” bill this year that Congress could approve with a simple majority.

The “Pillar 1” portion of the agreement would end unilateral taxes on digital services in exchange for a new mechanism that would allow large profitable companies to be taxed in part based on where they sell products and services, rather than where their headquarters and intellectual property reside.

This will require a multilateral tax agreement that will take time to negotiate, a Treasury official said.

“Pillar 1 will be on a slightly slower track. We’ll work with Congress,” Yellen said, when asked whether a two-thirds majority would be needed in the U.S. Senate, which is normally the requirement for international treaties.

It may be in ready in the spring of 2022 and we’ll try to determine at that point what’s necessary for its implementation,” Yellen said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/11/yellen-says-tax-changes-for-large-firms-may-not-be-ready-until-2022.html

In overture to U.S., EU's Gentiloni says G20 deal is priority on corporate tax

VENICE, July 10 (Reuters) - The priority in corporate tax reform is to go ahead with a global G20 deal, European Economics Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said on Saturday when asked about whether European Union's digital services levy plan may be postponed.

The remark followed intense pressure on the EU executive commission from the U.S. administration to drop the EU's plan for its separate levy, while some European officials also questioned its value.

"We will assess everything, but the key issue from my point of view is that what we decided today is the number 1 priority," he told reporters after a meeting of G20 finance ministers in Venice endorsed a global agreement on corporate tax backed by 132 countries read more .

Gentiloni was asked whether the EU was considering to postpone until after October its proposal on a new European levy on digital services, which has so far been expected later in July.

He added that G20 countries had agreed to coordinate on national measures keeping the global tax deal as the main objective.

The U.S. administration is wary of the EU's initiative as it wants existing national digital service tax to be repealed as part of the global overhaul of cross-border corporate taxation under a long-sought deal taking shape at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

One European official said that the new levy risked undermining the broader OECD deal, which G20 finance ministers formally endorsed on Saturday.

"The Commission is going to have to figure this one out," another European official said.

More

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/overture-us-eus-gentiloni-says-g20-deal-is-priority-corporate-tax-2021-07-10/

Finally, gold. It may be a barbarous relic to some, but when fiat currency fails, as fiat currencies are prone to do, it always pays to have plenty around. 

Still by suggesting that banks clearing gold trades in London might need an exemption from the new rules, it does suggest that the gold clearing banks in London are short of gold to meet all their contractual commitments.

They wouldn’t do that, would they?

Britain carves out exemption for gold clearing banks

Saturday 10 July 2021 1:52 pm

Banks clearing gold trades in London can apply for an exemption from tighter capital rules due in January 2022, the Bank of England’s Prudential Regulatory Authority said, removing what some said was a threat to the functioning of the market.

London is the world’s biggest physical precious metals trading hub. Its clearing system, operated by a handful of large banks with access to metal in vaults – JPMorgan, HSBC , ICBC Standard and UBS – settles gold transactions worth around $30 billion a day.

The upcoming rules, known as the net stable funding ratio (NSFR), are part of Basel III regulations designed to make banks more stable and prevent a repeat of the financial crisis of 2008-09.

The rules treat physically traded gold like any other commodity, requiring banks to hold more cash to match their gold exposure as a buffer against adverse price moves.

The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), an industry body, has lobbied against them, saying they are unnecessary and could force some banks – including clearing banks – to stop trading.

Following a consultation, the Prudential Regulatory Authority (PRA) said on Friday it had “decided to amend its approach to precious metal holdings related to deposit-taking and clearing activities.”

It said it had introduced an “interdependent precious metals permission” which would reduce the size of the required capital buffer.

“This is one of the key points that what we’ve been asking for all these years,” said Sakhila Mirza, the LBMA’s chief counsel. “Clearing will be exempt.”

The PRA said it would not classify gold as a high-quality liquid asset, which would have freed other trades such as precious metals loans and leases from the high capital requirement.

The LBMA says gold is liquid enough not to need an additional liquidity buffer for clearing and settlement and short-term transactions.

JPMorgan and HSBC declined to comment. ICBC Standard did not immediately respond late on Friday.

A spokesperson for UBS said: “UBS welcomes the PRA’s decision, which supports stability in bullion cleaning and avoids disruption to the London market.”

https://www.cityam.com/britain-carves-out-exemption-for-gold-clearing-banks/ 

Global Inflation Watch.          

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Higher Inflation Is Here to Stay for Years, Economists Forecast

Strong economic rebound and lingering pandemic disruptions fuel inflation forecasts above 2% through 2023, survey finds

July 11, 2021 9:00 am ET

Americans should brace themselves for several years of higher inflation than they’ve seen in decades, according to economists who expect the robust post-pandemic economic recovery to fuel brisk price increases for a while.

Economists surveyed this month by The Wall Street Journal raised their forecasts of how high inflation would go and for how long, compared with their previous expectations in April.

The respondents on average now expect a widely followed measure of inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, to be up 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2021 from a year before. They forecast the annual rise to recede to slightly less than 2.3% a year in 2022 and 2023.

That would mean an average annual increase of 2.58% from 2021 through 2023, putting inflation at levels last seen in 1993.

“We’re in a transitional phase right now,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economics LLC. “We are transitioning to a higher period of inflation and interest rates than we’ve had over the last 20 years.”

The inflation measure—the Commerce Department’s core price index of personal-consumption expenditures—jumped 3.4% in May from a year earlier, the biggest increase since the early 1990s.

What Mr. Naroff and the other survey respondents describe is a generational shift from the lower inflation of the past two decades, a shift that could create new challenges for households, policy makers and investors who came to expect inflation closer to or below 2%.

If the economists prove correct, Federal Reserve officials might have to raise rates sooner or more than they expect to keep inflation under control.

More

https://www.wsj.com/articles/higher-inflation-is-here-to-stay-for-years-economists-forecast-11626008400?mod=mhp

Don't rely on markets to see inflation threat, says Summers

July 11, 2021

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