Baltic Dry Index. 3214 +60 Brent Crude 75.65
Spot Gold 1828
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 30/07/21 World 197,381,922
Deaths 4,214,877
July 29, 1914 - Britain calls for international mediation to resolve the worsening crisis. Russia urges German restraint, but the Russians begin partial troop mobilization as a precaution. The Germans then warn Russia on its mobilization and begin to mobilize themselves.
July 30, 1914 - Austrian warships bombard Belgrade, capital of Serbia.
July 31, 1914 - Reacting to the Austrian attack on Serbia, Russia begins full mobilization of its troops. Germany demands that it stop.
It is the final trading day of the month in the stock casinos, and far from the usual dress up the stock indexes to boost money manager bonuses, in the early news from Asia and US overnight futures trading it’s looking more like a case of dress down Friday.
Surely not! Won’t Chairman Powell’s Fed ride in to rescue their friends and cronies in the one percent?
If not, oh the inhumanity of it.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng tumbles more than 2% as tech shares decline; Asia-Pacific markets dip
SINGAPORE — Volatile trading continued for Chinese stocks on Friday, as losses were seen again — a day after they clawed back some gains following a dive early this week.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index tumbled more than 2% by the afternoon. Declines were seen in tech stocks after they had jumped on Thursday. Alibaba tumbled 5.5%, Tencent was down 4%, and Meituan dived more than 8%. The Hang Seng Tech index overall lost more than 4%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index plunged more than 8% in two days early this week, and bounced back by 3% in Thursday’s session.
Mainland-listed stocks were also subdued, with the CSI 300 tumbling 1%, Shanghai composite declining 0.53%, and the Shenzhen component down 0.48%.
The yuan, however, recovered strongly, after selling off earlier this week, tracking the stock losses. The offshore yuan was at 6.4599 on Friday morning, after weakening to around 6.52 levels earlier this week.
Japan leads losses in other Asia-Pacific markets
Japan’s Nikkei 225 dipped 1.54% by the afternoon, while the Topix lost more than 1%.
Reuters reported the country’s industrial output jumped 6.2% in June, sharply rising from a 6.5% drop in May. June retail sales rose 0.1% from a year earlier, less than forecasts for a 0.2% gain.
South Korea’s Kospi was down around 1%.
----Stocks rallied stateside during Thursday’s regular session even though data showed U.S. second-quarter GDP rose 6.5% on an annualized basis, considerably less than the 8.4% Dow Jones estimate.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained about 150 points on Thursday after reaching a new intraday high. The S&P 500, which also briefly touched an all-time high, finished the day up 0.4% at 4,419.15.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/asia-pacific-stocks.html
Nasdaq futures fall more than 1% as stocks try to round out strong July
Futures contracts tied to the major U.S. stock indexes fell in the overnight session as a soft earnings report from Amazon threatened to dampen an otherwise strong month ahead of July’s final day of trading.
S&P 500 futures shed 0.77%, while those tied to the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.33%. Dow futures dipped 112 points.
The week’s deluge of earnings reports continued after the closing bell Thursday, with e-commerce giant Amazon and social media platform Pinterest providing profit updates to investors.
Amazon equity sank 7.4% in extended trading after it reported its first quarterly revenue miss in three years and gave weaker guidance. The move in Amazon’s stock helped weigh on Nasdaq 100 futures. Pinterest fell even further, down 19%, after saying it lost monthly users during the three months ended June 30.
Shares of online brokerage Robinhood started trading on the Nasdaq at $38 per share on Thursday, but the stock eventually closed its debut session more than 8% lower $34.82 per share.
Equities rallied during Thursday’s regular session even after the Commerce Department said economic growth in the U.S. decelerated somewhat in the second quarter.
-----The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite underperformed with a 0.1% gain, kept in check by a 4% drop in Facebook shares after the social media company’s earnings report.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/29/nasdaq-futures-fall-as-stocks-try-to-round-out-strong-july.html
Ratings agencies downgrade China Evergrande as concerns over junk bonds rise
Major credit ratings agencies this week downgraded China’s most indebted property developer Evergrande, as concerns over Asia’s junk bond sector rise.
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday downgraded China Evergrande one notch from B to CCC, saying that the negative developments surrounding Evergrande may weaken investor confidence, further pressuring its liquidity.
A rating of CCC means there’s a “real possibility” of a default, from the previous B rating — which means there is material default risk, but a limited margin of safety remains.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday took the property developer down two notches, from B+ to B-, citing its inability to reduce debt “in an orderly manner.” It added that the firm’s credit rating was dragged down by what S&P believed to be a “severe” decline in profitability at the firm.
China Evergrande has been struggling with liquidity issues since last year. However, last week’s news of an asset freeze refocused attention on the company’s debt troubles. That brought its share price down to a four-year low. Year-to-date, Evergrande’s share price has tumbled more than 60%.
While China’s technology crackdown has triggered shockwaves through stock markets this week, it’s actually real estate that’s sparking concerns in Asia’s credit markets, BlackRock told CNBC on Thursday.
“Tech is a smaller part of the credit markets in Asia,” Neeraj Seth, head of Asian credit at BlackRock told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.” “One of the key sectors that has gotten impacted in the credit markets is actually real estate.”
Asian bond markets have underperformed in the last few months, compared to those markets in the U.S. and Europe, he said.
More
Next, haven’t we been here before? How well did this do in 2007-2009?
Hot Housing Market Lets Banks Sell Mortgage Risk
Banks are now bundling and selling default risk on mortgage loans to yield-hungry investors
July 28, 2021 5:30 am ET
A red-hot housing market is enabling banks to sell a new kind of bond that shares the risk of mortgage and loan defaults with institutional investors.
Texas Capital Bank recently sold $275 million of securities to investors looking to cash in on the pandemic-fueled boom in home prices. The bonds are backed by short-term loans the bank makes to mortgage lenders. When those lenders’ borrowers default, the investors in the bonds effectively cover the loss.
The transfers are a product of the effort to shield Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from the risk of a mortgage-market reversal. Banks are now using them to raise capital and otherwise shore up their balance sheets, a process that ultimately adds to their lending capacity, analysts said.
Banks including JPMorgan Chase JPM -0.13% & Co. and Citigroup Inc. have recently increased sales of risk-transfer securities tied to mortgages, auto loans and corporate debt. However, the entry of regional banks marks a new phase in the market’s expansion, said Simon Boughey, an analyst at Structured Credit Investor.
“The addition of Texas Capital Bank to the roster in March this year shows there is potential for this mechanism to grow,” said Mr. Boughey.
While the risk transfers revive memories of the financial products that boomed before the financial crisis, investors said they remain a niche product, supported by a surging housing market and a recovery that has improved borrowers’ credit quality.
More
https://www.wsj.com/articles/hot-housing-market-lets-banks-sell-mortgage-risk-11627464600?mod=mhp
What now for international stock gambling? Is our future really this bleak?
Shake-up in Chinese stocks raises questions over the future of international investing
Published Wed, Jul 28 2021 7:02 AM EDT
The latest volatility in China — with regulators in Beijing attempting to rein in several sectors of the Chinese economy — is only the latest blow for international investors.
“The invest-in-China mantra has always been based on the idea that China was going to be the next big global power, so that’s where I need to be,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. “That’s being rethought. How can you discount risk when it’s not clear what China will do?”
Even before this latest issue with China, international investing has been a difficult game. Now, international fund managers say it’s getting even harder.
“A lot of investors have given up on international investing,” said Brendan Ahern, who runs KraneShares ETFs, which focuses on investing in China. “If you are an international advisor, and you have had 10 years of underperformance, you are constantly defending why you are invested overseas.”
Indeed, international fund managers have been on the defensive for some time. China has been underperforming the U.S. for more than a decade, but because China is such a heavy weighting in emerging markets funds, those emerging markets have also underperformed:
Still, the rest of the developed world, including Europe, Japan, and even countries that are often considered “developed” such as Korea, have also underperformed the U.S.
More
Finally, Rotterdam’s ship finally steams in. The end of a long, long, mostly, but not entirely, uneventful voyage. Hopefully, nothing perishable was onboard. I wonder what the demurrage bill will be?
Container vessel that blocked Suez Canal reaches Rotterdam
July 29, 2021
THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — The huge container ship that blocked the Suez Canal for nearly a week earlier this year finally reached the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands on Thursday to begin unloading its cargo.
As dawn broke over the sprawling port, the Ever Given eased into the Amazonehaven container terminal months later than originally planned.
The Panama-flagged vessel was heading for Rotterdam when it plowed into the sandy bank of a single-lane stretch of the canal about 6 kilometers (3.7 miles) north of the southern entrance, near the city of Suez on March 23.
A massive salvage effort freed the skyscraper-sized vessel six days later, allowing a traffic jam of hundreds of waiting ships to pass through the canal.
Earlier this month, the Ever Given left the canal’s Great Bitter Lake, where it had been held for over three months amid a financial dispute. It was freed to continue its voyage after the ship’s Japanese owner, Shoei Kisen Kaisha Ltd., reached a compensation settlement with canal authorities following weeks of negotiations and a court standoff.
The Dutch port said the vessel is expected to remain in Rotterdam until Aug. 5, when it will head for the English port of Felixstowe.
https://apnews.com/article/europe-business-rotterdam-suez-canal-e46d572cadbd1afd77e348e2dfe8926e
Demurrage
---- Demurrage is a result of a failure to abide by the rules agreed to in a charter agreement. Specifically, it is when a charge is payable to the owner of a chartered ship on the failure to load or discharge the ship within an agreed time period.
When a ship is chartered, there is usually an allotted time for delivery to be taken and for receipt by the warehouse. This time specified is usually no longer than 3 days.
To understand who is responsible for delay; a penalty is assessed against a consignor, consignee, or other party who is deemed to be responsible for any delay in loading or unloading a shipping vessel. Delays may also stem from any undue detention (usually over 48 hours) of the transportation equipment. This is also called a detention charge.
More
https://www.tradefinanceglobal.com/freight-forwarding/demurrage/
Global Inflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
U.S. economy grew almost 7% from April-July, tops prepandemic size
July 29, 2021 / 10:58 AM
July 29 (UPI) -- The U.S. economy expanded by nearly 7% between April and July, official government figures showed on Thursday -- surpassing its size before the COVID-19 pandemic began.
The Commerce Department released the growth figures in a report that detailed overall economic growth in the second quarter. It expanded by 6.5% over the first quarter of 2021, the department said.
While the growth figure missed most analysts' expectations, it signaled sustained growth of the domestic economy after months of turmoil last year due to the coronavirus outbreak.
The increase was slightly better than the 6.3% growth in the January-April period.
Most economists expected the report to show growth of 8.4% in the second quarter.
"The increase in second-quarter GDP reflected the continued economic recovery, reopening of establishments and continued government response related to the COVID-19 pandemic," the Commerce Department report said.
"In the second quarter, government assistance payments in the form of loans to businesses and grants to state and local governments increased, while social benefits to households, such as the direct economic impact payments, declined."
---- With Thursday's report, the economy has now seen better growth in three straight quarters after the record 33% expansion in the third quarter of 2020.
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2021/07/29/economy-growth-second-quarter/6971627566493/
German inflation spikes in July, state figures show
July 29, 2021 11:28 AM By Reuters Staff
BERLIN, July 29 (Reuters) - German consumer price increases accelerated in July, pushing inflation further away from the European Central Bank’s target of close to or below 2%, data from six states showed on Thursday.
German states of Baden-Wuerttemberg, Bavaria, Brandenburg, Hesse, North-Rhine Westphalia and Saxony reported annual inflation rates of 3.4% to 4.3%, suggesting the national estimate, due at 1200 GMT, would far exceed 2.3% recorded in June.
Economists polled by Reuters have forecast the national headline rate at 3.3% and the harmonized rate, comparable with data from other European Union countries, at 2.9%.
“Inflation is marching towards a 4% mark,” Berenberg Bank chief economist Holger Schmieding said, attributing the spike primarily to the value added tax effect. The government cut the tax temporarily in the second half of 2020 as part of pandemic-related economic support, which reduced inflation back then and now was playing out in annual price comparisons.
German central bank chief Jens Weidmann last week voiced concern that the ECB might keep interest rates low for too long, noting that his experts saw German inflation approaching 5% later this year.
Analysis: Tesla hikes electric car prices in U.S.; holds line in China
July 28, 2021 9:24 PM BST
July 28 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) showed signs of divergent strategies in the world's two biggest automotive markets, raising prices to boost profit margins in the United States while keeping prices steady in China and hoping to grow sales there.
Freight-Broker CEO Sees Supply Snarls at Least Through February
By Thomas Black28 July 2021, 18:41 BST
A worsening traffic jam clogging global cargo arteries won’t ease up until after the 2022 Chinese New Year in February, said the head of one of the world’s largest freight brokers.
The supply chain is suffering from a “dramatic lack of capacity” for ships, trucks, trains, containers and warehouse workers, said Bob Biesterfeld, chief executive officer of C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. said. Labor shortages are keeping trucks idle and containers stuck at distribution centers, which is capping capacity.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Officials in Tokyo alarmed as cases hit record highs
TOKYO (AP) — Japanese officials sounded the alarm Thursday after Tokyo reported record-breaking coronavirus cases for two straight days with the Olympics well underway.
“We have never experienced the expansion of the infections of this magnitude,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato told reporters. He said the new cases were soaring not only in the Tokyo area but across the country.
Tokyo reported 3,177 new cases on Wednesday, up from 2,848 on Tuesday, setting an all-time high and exceeding 3,000 for the first time.
Japan has kept its cases and deaths lower than many other countries, but its seven-day rolling average is growing and now stands at 28 per 100,000 people nationwide and 88 in Tokyo, according to the Health Ministry. This compares to 18.5 in the United States, 48 in Britain and 2.8 in India, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
“While almost nothing is helping to slow the infections, there are many factors that can accelerate them,” said Dr. Shigeru Omi, a top government medical adviser, noting the Olympics and summer vacation. “The biggest risk is the lack of a sense of crisis and without it, the infections will further expand and put medical systems under severe strain.”
Tokyo has been under its fourth state of emergency since July 12, ahead of the Olympics, which began last Friday despite widespread public opposition and concern that they Games could worsen the outbreak.
People are still roaming the streets despite stay-at-home requests, making the measures largely ineffective at a time the more infectious delta strain is spreading, he said. “We have never seen the infections spread so rapidly.”
More
Pfizer’s CEO says Covid vaccine effectiveness drops to 84% after six months
Published Wed, Jul 28 2021 3:36 PM EDT Updated Wed, Jul 28 2021 3:47 PM EDT
The effectiveness of Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine steadily declines over time, dropping to about 84% for vaccinated people about four to six months after getting their second dose, according to CEO Albert Bourla.
The comments, made on Wednesday on CNBC’s “The Exchange,” are based on the findings of a new company-funded study that has yet to be peer reviewed. It comes as the drugmaker clashes with U.S. health officials over the need for a third Covid vaccine dose to boost immunity protection.
The study found the vaccine’s effectiveness was strongest, at 96.2%, between one week and two months after receiving the second dose. It declined an average of 6% every two months, according to the study, which signed up more than 44,000 people across the U.S. and other countries. The efficacy after “four to six months was approximately 84%,” Bourla said.
“We have seen also data from Israel that there is a waning of immunity and that starts impacting what used to be what was 100% against hospitalization. Now, after the six month period, is becoming low 90s and mid-to-high 80s,” Bourla said.
“The good news is that we are very, very confident that a third dose, a booster, will take up the immune response to levels that will be enough to protect against the delta variant,” the executive added, referring to the highly contagious virus strain that’s dominant in the U.S. and other countries around the globe. It’s not uncommon for vaccines to decline in effectiveness over time, Bourla stressed, adding there’s precedent for three-dose vaccines for other diseases.
More
Health Ministry Experts Panel Recommends 3rd COVID Shot for Older Israelis
Most experts on the committee argue for a COVID booster shot for Israelis 60 and above as the delta variant spreads
Jul. 29, 2021 12:38 AM
Experts advising the Health Ministry have recommended that older people receive a third dose of the coronavirus vaccine, though they disagree on whether the cohort should start at 60 years old, 65 or 70.
Some of the data presented at a discussion Wednesday suggested that the vaccine's effectiveness in preventing severe symptoms among 60-year-olds and above has dropped to 81 percent from 97 percent in January.
While most panel members favored a booster shot for anyone 60 or older, others suggested that the bar be raised to 65 or 70. The Health Ministry's director general, Nachman Ash, will make the final decision.
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett will meet the health minister and other experts on Thursday to discuss the health or economic implications of the said move, a statement by the prime minister's office reads.
Earlier Wednesday, experts told Haaretz that there is still not enough data on the effectiveness and safety of a third dose, but they also expressed concerns about delaying the decision.
Prof. Galia Rahav, head of the infectious disease unit at Sheba Medical Center near Tel Aviv, will head a research team looking into the move. Rahav told Haaretz that she hopes to begin testing a third dose next week.
“We're seeing a dramatic drop in the level of immunity and we know the elderly respond less to vaccines than the young, but we don’t have this data for COVID-19,” she said.
More
Israel's two-week window to halt the 4th COVID-19 wave - analysis
The number of new daily cases has surpassed 2,000 for two days in a row and hospital heads say they are starting to feel the results.
By MAAYAN JAFFE-HOFFMAN JULY 29, 2021 08:19
If Israel does not take the necessary steps to stop the spread of COVID-19, the pandemic could spiral out of control again and put Israel right where it was last September – a step before lockdown, senior health officials told The Jerusalem Post.
And some experts are warning that Israel has only a two-week window in which to act.
The number of new daily cases has surpassed 2,000 for two days in a row, and hospital heads say they are starting to feel the results.
“If we do not take steps fast, then in the next two weeks we could see 800, 1,000 or even more severe patients in the hospital in the internal and intensive care units,” said Rabin Medical Center-Beilinson Campus Director-General Dr. Eitan Wertheim. “We are going to be right in the same spot that we were exactly one year ago. We are on the same route.”
On July 28, 2020, Israel diagnosed 2,125 new cases of the virus, compared to 2,267 that were diagnosed on Wednesday. However, on July 28 last year, there were 320 serious cases, whereas on Wednesday there were only 149.
More
https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israels-two-week-window-to-halt-the-4th-covid-19-wave-675199
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Energy Dome uses carbon dioxide as a grid-scale battery
Loz Blain July 29, 2021
Carbon dioxide may finally get its chance to become a solution in the climate crisis. Italy's Energy Dome says its CO2 batteries will store energy at less than half the cost of lithium "big batteries," while also being very responsive to load demand.
This is one of a number of solutions being put forward to replace or complement lithium "big battery" installations designed to soak up excess energy when the grid's not using it, and then feed it back in when it's required.
We're going to need insane amounts of energy storage in the coming decades; within 30 years, we need to replace all the world's current 2.045 terawatts (that's 2,045,000 megawatts) of coal-fired electricity generation with clean alternatives, while significantly expanding that capacity to keep up with skyrocketing demand as nearly everything else that runs on fossil fuels – cars, trucks, boats, planes, industrial processes, you name it – gets electrified as well.
There's more than enough clean, renewable energy available; it just doesn't get generated right when it's needed the way coal-fired power can. So until the unlikely goal of a global energy grid is realized, the world's appetite for cheap ways to store and release green electricity is going to ramp up like mad.
While carbon dioxide is one of the world's biggest problems right now, Energy Dome proposes to use it as a solution, taking advantage of a dramatic expansion that it undergoes when shifting between its liquid and gaseous states.
Here's the idea: you start out with a giant, flexible bladder full of CO2 gas stored in a big dome. As energy is fed into the system, electric turbines compress the gas into tighter and tighter volumes, much like a compressed air storage system. Heat from this compression is drawn off into a thermal energy storage system, and the gas is condensed into a liquid, which can be stored under pressure at ambient temperatures. That's the charge cycle.
When it's time to discharge, the liquid CO2 is evaporated with the assistance of the stored heat, and its expansion drives a second set of turbines, generating electricity and feeding it back to the grid from whence it came as the gas goes back into the bladder dome. (Incidentally, if you're looking for a band name, Bladderdome appears to be free and the URL is available for purchase.)
These domes can be run in a number of different sizes and configurations, but a target full-scale plant would make around 25 MW and store between 100-200 MWh of energy.
Importantly, these CO2 batteries can operate very quickly, absorbing and releasing energy nearly instantly in certain configurations. This means they'll be useful for smoothing out demand spikes – typically a lithium speciality – as well as for buffering between renewable generation and demand curves, and building multi-day reserve storage that can kick in to stabilize the grid when bad weather knocks generation on the head for a few days.
Round trip efficiency is over 75 percent, says the company, and while that does mean you're throwing some energy away, this sector will likely play out almost entirely based on economics. Here, the company tells Recharge News, it can offer a levelized cost of storage (LCOS) as low as US$50-60 per MWh within a few years, where lithium batteries are sitting between US$132-245/MWh.
More
Another weekend and my plumbing problem fixed, a great weekend too. I can now flush my toilette without awakening my neighbours, if not the dead. Remember, buy now while stocks last. Buy now for Christmas. Have a great weekend everyone.
August 1, 1914 - Germany declares war on Russia. France and Belgium begin full mobilization.
August 3, 1914 - Germany declares war on France, and invades neutral Belgium. Britain then sends an ultimatum, rejected by the Germans, to withdraw from Belgium.
August 4, 1914 - Great Britain declares war on Germany. The declaration is binding on all Dominions within the British Empire including Canada, Australia, New Zealand, India and South Africa.
August 4, 1914 - The United States declares its neutrality.
And so three Empires crashed and disappeared, two more staggered on bankrupt, Fascism arose in Italy, “perfected” in Germany, and Stalin’s version of communism took on subverting the rest of the world, Japan was emboldened to eventually attack China.
Good architecture and good music died, as did good manners, replaced eventually, with the modern world of today.
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