Baltic Dry Index. 3053 -06 Brent Crude 68.21
Spot Gold 1808
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 21/07/21 World 192,275,631
Deaths 4,133,962
Life is a constant oscillation between the sharp horns of dilemmas.
H.
L. Mencken.
In the great global stock casinos, more of the same. If Monday’s down Tuesday must be up, with a little help from their friends at the central banks and their cronies.
After all, our fragile central bankster scripted stock casinos are now so fragile and price over extended, we can’t allow anything more than a one day selloff. Gone are the pre-2020 days of the 3 day selloff.
Below, a summary of Tuesday’s casino action plus this morning’s action from Asia.
As I write, there are more catastrophic flooding reports coming in from central China.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1% as Asia-Pacific stocks rise following Wall Street rebound
SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia-Pacific rose in Wednesday morning trade, following an overnight bounce stateside that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising more than 500 points.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 led gains among the region’s major markets as it rose 1.3% while the Topix index advanced 1.42%.
Japan’s exports rose 48.6% in June as compared with a year earlier, according to data released Wednesday by the country’s Ministry of Finance. That was higher than a 46.2% increase expected by economists in a Reuters poll.
Mainland Chinese stocks were also higher as the Shanghai composite gained 0.75% while the Shenzhen component rose 0.995%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index advanced 0.19%.
Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 in Australia climbed 1.22%.
Australia’s retail sales fell 1.8% in June as compared with the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis, preliminary retail trade data from the country’s Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday.
Following that data release, the Australian dollar changed hands at $0.7319, still off levels above $0.742 seen last week.
South Korea’s Kospi lagged as it slipped 0.17%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded 0.37% higher.
Overnight stateside, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 549.95 points to 34,511.99. The S&P 500 jumped 1.52% to 4,323.06 while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.57% to 14,498.88.
Those gains were a comeback from Monday’s losses, which saw the Dow plunging more than 700 points amid fears that a Covid resurgence could slow the economic recovery.
More
Dow rebounds more than 500 points, recovering most of Monday’s losses
Major averages rebounded Tuesday as investors stepped in to buy the dip from the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s worst day in eight months.
The comeback rally gained steam steadily through the session as a bounce in Treasury yields soothed some concerns that a Covid resurgence would slow down the economic recovery. As the 10-year yield climbed back above 1.20%, the run in stocks increased.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 549.95 points, or 1.6%, to 34,511.99, following its 725 point-decline Monday. It was the biggest jump for the Dow in more than a month. The S&P 500 climbed 1.52% to 4,323.06 and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.57% to 14,498.88. The small-cap benchmark Russell 2000 index saw the biggest rebound with a 3% gain.
Many of the stocks that were hit the hardest on Monday, on concerns about Covid-19′s delta variant, regained their losses Tuesday. Airlines and cruise companies led the rebound. American Airlines and Delta Air Lines, which lost 4% in the sell-off, added 8% and 5%, respectively, on Tuesday. Royal Caribbean gained more than 7%, after falling 4% on Monday.
----“We remain constructive on equities and see the latest round of growth and slowdown fears premature and overblown,” wrote Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, head of U.S. equity strategy at JPMorgan, in a note Tuesday. The strategist raised his year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 4,600 from 4,400, representing a gain of 8% from Monday’s close.
With Tuesday’s rebound, the S&P 500 sits 1.6% below its record hit last week. During Monday’s losses, the equity benchmark traded below its 50-day moving average at one point. However, the index managed to close above that key technical level Monday, an optimistic sign for traders that foreshadowed Tuesday’s rebound.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/19/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html?recirc=taboolainternal
Recession from COVID-19 was shortest in U.S. history, record-keeper says
July 20, 2021 / 8:03 AM
July 20 (UPI) -- The economic recession in the United States brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic last year was the shortest in American history -- lasting for about two months, according to the official record-keeper.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, a private nonprofit research organization that tracks the beginnings and endings of U.S. recessions, said the coronavirus-induced contraction began in February 2020 and ended in April 2020.
A recession occurs when there's a decline in gross domestic product over consecutive months.
The NBER said that although U.S. GDP declined by a dramatic 31% in the second quarter of 2020, government stimulus policies helped stabilize the economy.
"The recession lasted two months, which makes it the shortest U.S. recession on record," the bureau said in a statement.
"The previous shortest recession occurred in the first half of 1980 and lasted six months."
Normally, a recession is defined by a decline in economic activity that lasts for more than a few months. But the NBER said last year's two-month decline was deep enough to qualify as a recession.
"The recent downturn had different characteristics and dynamics than prior recessions," it said. "Nonetheless, the committee concluded that the unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warranted the designation of this episode as a recession, even though the downturn was briefer than earlier contractions."
More
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2021/07/20/covid-recession-nber-economy/3891626778237/
Elsewhere, Taiwan’s boom goes on.
Taiwan June export orders surge again, outlook bullish
July 20, 2021 9:39 AM By Reuters Staff
TAIPEI (Reuters) - Taiwan’s export orders grew by more than expected in June and the government said the outlook for the island’s tech goods remains strong on demand for high-end chips and ahead of the year-end holiday shopping season.
Taiwan’s export orders, a bellwether of global technology demand, jumped 31.1% from a year earlier to $53.73 billion in June, data from the Ministry of Economic Affairs showed on Tuesday.
That was the 16th month of expansion and the pace was faster than the median forecast of a rise of 29.45% in a Reuters poll.
The ministry attributed the strong performance to demand for 5G and semiconductors, especially from auto makers, as the world grapples with chip shortages.
Demand for home electronics like laptops to support the “home economy”, with the COVID-19 pandemic still restricting the movement of millions around the world, also remained strong, the ministry added.
In May, export orders surged 34.5% from a year earlier to$52.29 billion.
---- Looking ahead, the ministry warned of uncertainly over the spread of COVID-10 variants around the world, but saw an upside in climbing vaccination rates and the recovery of the global economy.
The start of the second half of the year is when companies start preparing new products for the year-end holiday season, while demand for 5G and other high end applications, as well as auto electronics, will also help Taiwan’s orders, the ministry added.
More
Finally, more on that developing China flooding news. At a minimum, more supply chain disruption.
China flooding kills a dozen people in industrial centre Zhengzhou
City that is home to world’s largest iPhone assembly plant suffers ‘once in a millennium’ event
21 July, 2021
Severe flooding has killed at least a dozen people in Zhengzhou, the central
Chinese city that is home to the world’s largest iPhone assembly plant, as
record rainfall threatened to burst through nearby dams.
The torrential rain was described by the local weather authorities as being a “once in a millennium” event that surpassed anything recorded since 1951, submerging streets and stranding passengers in subway cars. From Saturday evening to Tuesday, 671.1mm of rain fell on Zhengzhou, more than the annual average volume of 604.8mm.
On Tuesday afternoon, 201.9mm fell in a single hour. Zhengzhou, the capital of Henan province, is an important industrial hub. Its iPhone assembly plant is operated by Taiwan-based Apple supplier Hon Hai Precision Industry, better known as Foxconn. The company said that there was “no direct impact on our facility in that location to date”, adding it was closely monitoring the situation and had activated an emergency response plan for flood control.
The city’s metro system was shut on Tuesday evening after part of a wall to keep water out of the tunnels collapsed. Videos on social media showed subway cars full of people standing in waist-high water waiting to be rescued. Twelve people died and five were injured on the subway alone, according to an initial count released by Chinese state media on Wednesday.
A series of dams on the city’s outskirts were at risk of bursting, forcing authorities to alleviate pressure by discharging water. Zhengzhou ground to a standstill as flights and trains were cancelled and power outages struck large sections of the city.
More
https://www.ft.com/content/ca6f8716-9a5a-4d7a-9cc7-808a6c5203d1
A newspaper is a device for making the ignorant more ignorant and the crazy crazier.
H.
L. Mencken.
Global Inflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
China shipping backlog leaves factory owners with nowhere to put goods, and prices are rising
· A month after Shenzhen’s Yantian Port shut down for three weeks, a massive backlog of appliances, commodities and toys sit in storage, waiting to be exported
· Manufacturers are looking to ship from other Chinese ports, while consumers may inevitably face higher prices in the end
Published: 4:31am, 20 Jul, 2021
A month after container shipping operations returned to normal at China’s Yantian Port, factory owners are still feeling the pinch from a debilitating three-week shutdown, with warehouses chock-full of goods awaiting export.
“While we can see the cargo is moving through the port again, this event is shaping up to be one of the most disruptive of the year,” said Josh Brazil, vice-president of marketing at logistics service provider Project44, in a note earlier this month.
In Guangdong, a major manufacturing province that houses the Yantian International Container Terminal, manufacturers and exporters across various sectors – including large household appliances, commodities and toys – are still facing choke points in the supply chain as they vie for space on the freighters to get their cargo out of the country.
More
Floods close rail lines in Europe for months or longer
By Keith Fender | July 19, 2021
Germany worst hit; lines along rivers prove to be vulnerable
Portions of the rail network in Western Europe could be out of service for months or years after massive flooding that has left hundreds dead across a swath of western Germany and Belgium. Rail service has been suspended after the floods that saw rivers running 3 yards higher than previous records in some cases and destroyed homes and businesses.
Flooding was caused by a slow-moving, low-pressure weather system that sat over the region from 15 July, releasing two months’ worth of rain in two days. Over 10 inches of rain fell continuously in some places in the hilly Ardennes, Eifel, and Ruhr regions; in many cases, this was then channeled down steep-sided river valleys, unleashing massive destructive power in towns and villages in the water’s path.
In Belgium, most rail lines south of Brussels saw disruption, with many in the hilly Ardennes region seriously damaged. The high-speed rail line connecting Brussels with Cologne in Germany was briefly closed, but as this goes through hills and over valleys, it was not seriously damaged. Services restarted over the weekend. The older rail lines that follow river valleys, often no more than a few yards above the river, fared much less well. Several routes are so badly damaged that reconstruction is expected to take until late August; less damaged routes reopened July 19.
Situation worse in Germany
In neighboring Germany, where the scale of destruction and loss of life has been greater, some rail lines, again built following river valleys, have been completely washed out. In total, German national railroad Deutsche Bahn has reported 600 kilometers (more than 370 miles) of tracks and 80 stations are impassable.
The worst affected route along the valley of the river Ahr from Remagen to Ahrbrück has seen around 12.5 miles of its 18-mile length destroyed by flood water, with all seven bridges destroyed where the line crossed from one side of the river to the other.
---- The German government has promised emergency funding for flood damaged areas but has already said it is likely to take years to rebuild the worst damaged areas and their road and rail infrastructure.
In the Ruhr region, the main station in the city of Hagen was flooded and closed, along with rail lines through the city, as were those in the nearby city of Wuppertal. The flood waters knocked out power and telecoms services in many areas. In the city of Bonn, the electronic signaling center controlling the main rail lines along the Rhine valley was unable to function due to flood damage.
More
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible anyway, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Research: India’s deaths during pandemic 10X official toll
NEW DELHI (AP) — India’s excess deaths during the pandemic could be a staggering 10 times the official COVID-19 toll, likely making it modern India’s worst human tragedy, according to the most comprehensive research yet on the ravages of the virus in the south Asian country.
Most experts believe India’s official toll of more than 414,000 dead is a vast undercount, but the government has dismissed those concerns as exaggerated and misleading.
The report released Tuesday estimated excess deaths — the gap between those recorded and those that would have been expected — to be between 3 million to 4.7 million between January 2020 and June 2021. It said an accurate figure may “prove elusive” but the true death toll “is likely to be an order of magnitude greater than the official count.”
The report, published by Arvind Subramanian, the Indian government’s former chief economic adviser, and two other researchers at the Center for Global Development and Harvard University, said the count could have missed deaths occurring in overwhelmed hospitals or while health care was delayed or disrupted, especially during the devastating peak surge earlier this year.
“True deaths are likely to be in the several millions not hundreds of thousands, making this arguably India’s worst human tragedy since Partition and independence,” the report said.
---- The report on India’s virus toll used three calculation methods: data from the civil registration system that records births and deaths across seven states, blood tests showing the prevalence of the virus in India alongside global COVID-19 fatality rates, and an economic survey of nearly 900,000 people done thrice a year.
Researchers cautioned that each method had weaknesses, such as the economic survey omitting the causes of death.
Instead, researchers looked at deaths from all causes and compared that data to mortality in previous years — a method widely considered an accurate metric.
Researchers also cautioned that virus prevalence and COVID-19 deaths in the seven states they studied may not translate to all of India, since the virus could have spread worse in urban versus rural states and since health care quality varies greatly around India.
More
Singapore tightens restrictions again as Covid cases rise
Published Tue, Jul 20 2021 4:00 AM EDT
SINGAPORE — Singapore’s government on Tuesday said it will again tighten Covid-19 measures as new cases continue to rise, complicating the country’s reopening plans.
The measures include reintroducing a ban on dining-in, and limiting the maximum number of people allowed to gather from 5 to 2.
Covid-19 cases in Singapore have been on the rise in recent weeks. Multiple clusters have emerged around karaoke lounges as well as wet markets and hawker food centers, raising authorities’ concerns. Health ministry data showed last week, there were 480 community cases, a significant jump from the 19 reported in the previous seven days.
Given the current rate of transmission, cases are expected to rise sharply as more people will likely get infected.
“This is very concerning, as it can affect many people in our community all over the island,” Singapore’s Ministry of Health said in a statement.
“As we continue to conduct extensive testing for individuals exposed to the risk of infection, we can expect case numbers to increase in the coming days,” it added.
Between July 12 and July 18, there was an average of 46 community cases detected per day — the highest number of cases detected since April 2020, the health ministry said Tuesday.
The latest restrictions will go into effect from Thursday, July 22 through to Aug. 18.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/20/singapore-tightens-restrictions-again-as-covid-cases-rise.html
L.A. County coronavirus spike hits alarming levels, with 10,000 infected in a week, as Delta variant spreads
Mon, July 19, 2021, 1:00 PM
Los Angeles County is now recording more than 10,000 coronavirus cases a week — a pace not seen since March — an alarming sign of the dangers the Delta variant poses to people who have not been vaccinated and heightening pressure on health officials to reverse the trend.
A Los Angeles Times data analysis found L.A. County was recording 101 weekly coronavirus cases for every 100,000 residents, up from 12 for the seven-day period that ended June 15. That means the county has surpassed the threshold to have "high" community transmission of the disease, the worst tier as defined by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A region must hit 100 or more weekly cases per 100,000 residents to enter the worst tier.
It's still far fewer than during the deadly winter surge, when L.A. County was recording more than 1,000 weekly cases for every 100,000 residents, but it underscores growing concerns that unvaccinated people are at heightened risk.
More
https://news.yahoo.com/l-county-coronavirus-spike-hits-120023795.html
New heat-tolerant COVID-19 vaccine readies for human trials
Rich Haridy July 19, 2021
A new heat-tolerant COVID-19 vaccine has delivered strong preclinical results. The vaccine can remain stable for up to 30 days at around 37 °C (98 °F) and researchers are looking to begin human trials later this year.
One particular challenge in effectively distributing COVID-19 vaccines across the world is the need for most vaccines to be kept at cold temperatures. Pfizer and BioNTech’s mRNA vaccine, for example, famously requires ultra-cold storage between -80 ºC and -60 ºC (-112 ºF to ‑76 ºF) making delivery to remote communities profoundly difficult.
Recent research from Pfizer amended those temperature guidelines, finding normal freezer temperatures of between -25 °C to -15 °C (-13 °F to 5 °F) are safe for at least two weeks. But even then, cold storage supply lines still make it challenging to widely distribute the vaccine.
“A thermostable or ‘warm vaccine’ is critical for remote or resource-limited locations with extremely hot climates which lack reliable cold storage supply chains, including regional communities in Australia’s outback and the Indo-Pacific region,” says Rob Grenfell, from Australia’s national science agency, the CSIRO.
The new vaccine was developed by biotech startup Mynvax, in conjunction with the Indian Institute of Science. Reporting in the journal ACS Infectious Diseases, researchers found the vaccine produces robust neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in mouse and guinea pig models.
“Our data shows that all formulations of Mynvax tested result in antibodies capable of consistent and effective neutralization of the Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern,” says S.S Vasan, co-author on the new study.
This heat-tolerant vaccine formulation was found to be impressively stable in warm temperatures. It is effective for a month at 37 °C (98 °F) temperatures and even remained stable for up to 90 minutes at boiling temperatures of 100 °C (212 °F).
These promising preclinical results pave the way for a human trial to kick off later this year. Researchers hope a heat-tolerant COVID-19 vaccine with efficacy against newer SARS-CoV-2 variants will help deliver vaccines to remote communities.
The new study was published in the journal ACS Infectious Diseases.
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
The mathematics of repulsion for new graphene catalysts
Date: July 19, 2021
Source: Tohoku University
Summary: Scientists at Tohoku University and colleagues in Japan have developed a mathematical model that helps predict the tiny changes in carbon-based materials that could yield interesting properties.
A new mathematical model helps predict the tiny changes in carbon-based materials that could yield interesting properties.
Scientists at Tohoku University and colleagues in Japan have developed a mathematical model that abstracts the key effects of changes to the geometries of carbon material and predicts its unique properties.
The details were published in the journal Carbon.
Scientists generally use mathematical models to predict the properties that might emerge when a material is changed in certain ways. Changing the geometry of three-dimensional (3D) graphene, which is made of networks of carbon atoms, by adding chemicals or introducing topological defects, can improve its catalytic properties, for example. But it has been difficult for scientists to understand why this happens exactly.
The new mathematical model, called standard realization with repulsive interaction (SRRI), reveals the relationship between these changes and the properties that arise from them. It does this using less computational power than the typical model employed for this purpose, called density functional theory (DFT), but it is less accurate.
With the SRRI model, the scientists have refined another existing model by showing the attractive and repulsive forces that exist between adjacent atoms in carbon-based materials. The SRRI model also takes into account two types of curvature in such materials: local curvatures and mean curvature.
The researchers, led by Tohoku University mathematician Motoko Kotani, used their model to predict the catalytic properties that would arise when local curvatures and dopants were introduced into 3D graphene. Their results were similar to those produced by the DFT model.
"The accuracy of the SRRI model showed a qualitative agreement with DFT calculations, and is able to screen through potential materials roughly one billion times faster than DFT," says Kotani.
The team next fabricated the material and determined its properties using scanning electrochemical cell microscopy. This method can show a direct link between the material's geometry and its catalytic activity. It revealed that the catalytically active sites are on the local curvatures.
"Our mathematical model can be used as an effective pre-screening tool for exploring new 2D and 3D carbon materials for unique properties before applying DFT modelling," says Kotani. "This shows the importance of mathematics in accelerating material design."
The team next plans to use their model to look for links between the design of a material and its mechanical and electron transport properties.
A man may be a fool and not know it, but not if he is married.
H.
L. Mencken.
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