Thursday 18 February 2021

Texas, A Global Problem Now. Food Inflation Next?

Baltic Dry Index. 1756 +261 Brent Crude 65.15

Spot Gold 1784

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 18/02/21 World 110,435,805

Deaths 2,441,044

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has blamed intermittent renewable power sources for the blackouts, while the state’s agriculture commissioner said on Facebook that no wind turbine should ever be built in the state again. Both are Republicans.

The big news this morning is the continuing chaos in Texas. Who’d have thought the USA could be so unprepared. More on that below.

But as usual, up first news from the central bankster funded stock casinos. In the current stock mania, the punters turn to ever higher risk.

China shares rise on return from holiday, profit-taking hits other markets

February 17, 2021
More than 4 million barrels a day of supply has been curtailed

·         Fuel output also curbed following cuts to refinery processing

What began as a power issue for a handful of U.S. states is rippling into a shock for the world’s oil market.

More than 4 million barrels a day of output -- almost 40% of the nation’s crude production -- is now offline, according to traders and executives. One of the world’s biggest oil refining centers has seen output drastically cut back. The waterways that help U.S. oil flow to the rest of the world have been disrupted for much of the week.

“The market is underestimating the amount of oil production lost in Texas due to the bad weather,” said Ben Luckock, co-head of oil trading at commodity giant Trafigura Group.

Brent crude surged to within 25 cents of $65 a barrel on Wednesday, a level not seen since last January. Ten months ago it slumped below $16 because of a demand shock caused by Covid-19.

In the past the weather-related disruption would largely have been a U.S. issue. Now it’s unmistakably global. Crude markets in Europe are rallying as traders replace lost U.S. exports. OPEC and its allies must decide how much longer they keep millions of barrels of their supply off the market.

Estimates for how long the outages may last have gotten progressively longer in recent days as analysts try to figure out the timespan involved in thawing out infrastructure, especially in those areas where freezing weather isn’t the norm.

Higher Estimates

At first, traders and consultants expected a hit to U.S. production that would last between two and three days. Now it’s looking unlikely that things will start to recover much before the weekend.

That means ever more barrels are being removed from the global market. Citigroup Inc. said it expects a production loss of 16 million barrels through early March, but some trader estimates are now almost double that. Vast swaths of production in the Permian -- the heartland of U.S. shale output -- have been shut in.

The result has been a surge in the value of crude barrels in other parts of the world. North Sea traders have been frantically bidding for the region’s cargoes this week as replacements are sought for U.S. crude exports. As Europe’s supplies have gotten more expensive, Asian buyers have been snapping up Middle Eastern shipments at higher premiums.

And though headline crude futures are at their highest level in over a year, they’re yet to rip higher because the loss of refining capacity is equally acute. The country’s largest plant has closed, and at least 3 million barrels a day of processing got taken offline. Traders are rushing to send millions of barrels of diesel across the Atlantic to the U.S., a potential boon for Europe’s downtrodden refining industry.

Gasoline Machine

“The Gulf Coast is a gasoline machine and sends products across the U.S. as well as international markets,” said Kitt Haines, analyst at consultant Energy Aspects. “For a brief period at least, this could help European refining.”

More

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-17/big-freeze-in-texas-is-becoming-a-global-oil-market-crisis?cmpid=BBD021721_BIZ&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=210217&utm_campaign=bloombergdaily

Amid Texas freeze, oil producers still shut; governor bans natural gas exports

February 17, 2021

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