Freeze Havoc. Sign Of A Top? Vitamin C Revisited.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1495 +131 Brent Crude 63.50

Spot Gold 1789

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 17/02/21 World 110,035,725

Deaths 2,429,822

When the operations of capitalism come to resemble those of the casino, ill fortune will be the lot of many.

John Maynard Keynes.

In the stock casinos, signs of a top? Have the central banksters just run out of greater fool buyers?

While it’s to early to know for certain, in stock mania bubbles, getting out early beats getting carried out last.

One big rising uncertainty, just how much damage to the real US economy is the Great Global Warming Freeze doing? (Yes, believe it or not, the global warming fanatics blame increased Polar Vortexes on Global Warming! Well being out of office, they couldn’t blame it on President Trump.) 

We will probably have to wait until next week for reports of winter kill in grains, if any. Damage to other crops, cattle and foodstuffs in general. While unlikely, this big freeze has the potential to kick start inflation.

By forcing a giant section of the US population to seek warmth inside, it also has the potential to kick start another round of Covid-19, especially of the new more transmissible mutant variants.

Rising U.S. yields takes edge off stocks rally

February 16, 2021 11:52 PM By Tom Westbrook, Pete Schroeder

SINGAPORE/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields hit one-year highs on Wednesday, lending support to the dollar but pressuring lofty valuations for stocks, as investors reckoned that a stimulus-fuelled global recovery will eventually bring rising inflation.

Benchmark ten-year U.S. Treasury yields rose as far as 1.3330% in Asia, the highest since February 2020, although they later eased back to 1.2989%. [US/]

The gap over two-year yields also opened to its widest in nearly three years, as traders figure that short-term monetary policy will stay accommodative, even as the world bounces back from the pandemic.

The prospect of better risk-free returns weighed on equities and MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was stalled just shy of Tuesday’s record peak.

Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.7% and S&P 500 futures slipped 0.3% after the index posted a small fall overnight.

“You’re basically taking away a deflation worry,” said Rob Carnell, chief economist in Asia at ING.

“It’s a general sense that things are moving back to normal, and probably the single biggest driver of that is the fall in COVID numbers in U.S., it’s the re-opening that really delivers you the growth,” he said.

New COVID-19 cases in the United States fell for a fifth consecutive week last week.

The bonds selloff, which was jump-started in January when Democrats won control of the U.S. Senate, has now added almost 40 basis points to U.S. 10-year yields this year as investors price in heavy government borrowing for stimulus spending.

Overnight on Wall Street, the Dow Jones was helped to a record closing high by gains from banks, which benefit from higher yields, while the S&P 500 fell 0.06% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.3%. [.N]

Besides a cooling in stock-market exuberance, gold and the Japanese yen, have been other casualties of the rise in U.S. yields. Gold, which pays no income, tends to fall when yields rise and it touched a two-week low on Wednesday. [GOL/]

The yen is sensitive to U.S. rates because Japanese yields are anchored and higher U.S. returns can attract investment flows out of yen and into dollars. The yen hit a five-month low against the dollar on Wednesday and has lost 2.7% this year.

CHILL

A Texas cold snap that has shut down about a fifth of U.S. oil production has also stoked inflation expectations by boosting oil prices to 13-month highs. [O/R]

Front-month gas futures also jumped as much as 10% to a more than three-month high, though a stronger U.S. dollar has since pared some of the rise.

U.S. crude futures slipped 0.6% to $59.71 a barrel on Wednesday after poking above $60 on Tuesday, while Brent crude futures were also down 0.6% at $62.95.

----Ahead on Wednesday investors will be eyeing inflation data releases in Britain and Canada for any signs of a jump. U.S. retail sales data is also due, as are newly published minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting.

“Tonight’s release of the ... minutes is likely to reinforce the notion that the Fed is committed to keeping rates low for a longer period of time,” Sophia Ng, an analyst at MUFG Bank at Singapore, said in a note to clients.

Earnings reports this week from Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc, Hyatt Hotels Corp and Marriott International Inc will also be scrutinized for signs of a pickup in global travel demand.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/rising-u-s-yields-takes-edge-off-stocks-rally-idUSKBN2AG2PV?il=0

Going all-in? Investors' cash levels dip to 2013 pre-taper-tantrum levels

February 16, 20219:07 AM   By Thyagaraju Adinarayan

LONDON (Reuters) - Cash levels in investment portfolios have hit the lowest since just before the so-called taper tantrum of 2013, according to Bank of America’s February fund manager survey, which also showed investors to be overwhelmingly bullish on the economic outlook.

World stocks have been notching successive record highs in 2021, with central banks remaining supportive and governments injecting money into the system to get economies up to speed after the damage caused by COVID-19.

“The only reason to be bearish is ... there is no reason to be bearish,” Michael Hartnett, BofA’s chief investment strategist, told clients, who have the highest equity and commodity allocations in a decade.

A net 91% of them expect a stronger economy, the best ever reading in BofA’s survey published on Tuesday, which covered 225 fund managers with $645 billion in assets under management.

Investors showed they had the capacity to increase risk, taking their cash levels down to 3.8%, the lowest since March 2013, just before the U.S. Federal Reserve sparked a market tantrum by signalling its intent to wind down, or taper, the bond-buying programme it launched during the 2008 crisis.

However, investors hear echoes of the 2013 situation, and see another taper tantrum as the second biggest “tail risk” after delays in the rollout of coronavirus vaccines.

Despite these issues simmering in the background, and the huge gains across markets, BofA’s survey, conducted between Feb. 5 and 11, found only 13% of its participants concerned about a U.S. equity market bubble. About 53% said U.S. equity markets were in a late-stage bull market while 27% saw it in the early stages.

Notably, a net 25% of the investors surveyed said they were taking “higher-than-normal” risks -- the highest percentage ever. “Long tech” was the “most crowded trade”, followed by “long bitcoin” and “short U.S. dollar”.

More

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-markets-survey-bofa/going-all-in-investors-cash-levels-dip-to-2013-pre-taper-tantrum-levels-idUSKBN2AG0QJ?il=0

 

David Rosenberg: The 'jobless recovery' after the financial crisis is going to look like a labour bonanza compared with what's coming next

Of the near 10 million U.S. workers still out of a job in the pandemic, half will be replaced by machines

Feb 16, 2021  

The pandemic’s impact in all aspects, from the government-mandated shutdowns, the infections themselves and the impact on economic behavior, as well as the seemingly permanent loss of employment, have led to a massive reorganization of the labour force. Companies have learned to adapt and in so doing have shifted their production inputs from labour to capital. We anticipate this trend will not only continue in the near term, but accelerate through the post-pandemic recovery phase.

Increased automation and declining labour power (manifesting themselves in a steadily declining labour share of income) have been the hallmarks of the past 30 years, and while new U.S. President Joe Biden will try to curb this move with the tax system, he will not be able to reverse it — which will come with obvious social implications because permanent labour displacement has become a defining feature of this crisis.

This pattern is set to accelerate as companies look to further automate business processes, taking advantage of new technologies to boost margins and to mitigate future pandemic risks (robots don’t get infectious diseases). This process is already in motion, with the most recent example coming from the Pennsylvania Turnpike moving up its mass automation campaign.

Short bursts of rising output per worker are quite common after recessions. This phenomenon is a byproduct of the fact that the more productive firms tend to be the ones that survive downturns and more productive workers are those who remain employed. But what’s important here is all of these short-term productivity boosts have happened in the context of a broader trend of less labour compensation.

Over the past 40 years, labour’s share of income (a measure of how much is paid out to workers as a share of everything that is produced) has been on a secular decline. However, what started out as a gradual drawdown from the 1960s through the 1990s turned into a complete collapse after the tech-induced productivity boom of the 1990s. Since the internet revolution, companies have adopted business strategies and technologies that have allowed them to capture record shares of the value-add generated by the economy.

More

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/david-rosenberg-of-the-millions-of-workers-still-out-of-a-job-in-the-pandemic-half-will-be-replaced-by-machines

In global warming news, the USA Big Freeze continues to linger and wreak havoc.

Update 07:00 

Texas Livestock Industry Reels From Storm, Outages

Exposure and frozen pipes threaten cattle; dairy farmers are forced to dump milk after plant shutdowns 

Feb. 16, 2021 3:40 pm ET 

 

Bitter cold and power outages have created a crisis for some Texan farms and ranches, leaving livestock dead from exposure and raising fears that herds could run short of food and water.

Forced shutdowns of plants that process milk and make animal feed are disrupting the state’s agricultural supply chains, industry executives said. Some farmers are being forced to dump tankers of milk on fields because it can’t be processed, and state agriculture officials feared livestock may have to be euthanized if they cannot be watered and fed.

“No feed, no water, and no heat doesn’t make for a good situation,” said Sid Miller, Texas agriculture commissioner. Mr. Miller on Tuesday said he was urging state utilities to restore electricity to rural areas—some of which he said had gone without power for more than 30 hours straight—while fielding calls from cattlemen losing calves to the cold and poultry farmers struggling with frozen water pipes.

more

https://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-livestock-industry-reels-from-storm-outages-11613508000

Texas deep freeze leaves millions without power, 21 dead

February 16, 2021 5:06 PM  By Brad Brooks, Barbara Goldberg

LUBBOCK, Texas (Reuters) - A historic winter storm has killed at least 21 people, left millions of Texans without power and spun killer tornadoes into the U.S. Southeast on Tuesday.

The brutal cold has engulfed vast swaths of the United States, shuttering COVID-19 inoculation centers and hindering vaccine supplies. It is not expected to relent until the weekend.

Officials in Texas drew criticism as the state energy grid repeatedly failed, forcing rolling blackouts. Freezing weather stilled giant wind turbines that dot the West Texas landscape, making it impossible for energy companies to meet escalating demand.

---- At least 21 people have died in Texas, Louisiana, Kentucky and Missouri including four killed in a house fire in Sugar Land, Texas, where the power was out, according to police and local media.

President Joe Biden assured the governors of hard-hit states that the federal government stands ready to offer any emergency resources needed, the White House said in a statement.

Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner said at a midday news conference that 1.3 million people in his city remain without power. The city is looking for businesses that still have power to open their doors as warming centers.

---- Officials in south Texas warned citizens to not bring grills or propane heaters indoors. Hospitals have treated people for carbon monoxide poisoning as they tried to heat icy homes using those items.

Turner said vaccination centers in Houston would remain closed on Wednesday and probably Thursday. The Texas Department of State Health Services said vaccine shipments around the state would be delayed.

“No one wants to put vaccine at risk by attempting to deliver it in dangerous conditions,” department spokesman Douglas Loveday said by email, adding “it is not safe for people to be out across much of Texas.”

---- Storms dumped snow and ice from Ohio to the Rio Grande through the long Presidents Day holiday weekend, and treacherous weather was expected to grip much of the United States through Friday. Forecasters predicted up to 4 inches of snow and freezing rain from the southern Plains into the Northeast.

An Arctic air mass descended over much of the country, pushing temperatures to historic lows on Tuesday, Pagano said. In Lincoln, Nebraska, a reading of minus 31 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 35 degrees Celsius) on Tuesday shattered a record set in 1978 of minus 18F (minus 27C).

In typically toasty Dallas-Fort Worth, minus 1F (minus 17C) broke a record set in 1903 of 12F (minus 11C).

More

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather/texas-deep-freeze-leaves-millions-without-power-21-dead-idUSKBN2AG257

From FedEx to GM, firms halt operations as freeze grips parts of United States

February 16, 2021 2:54 PM

(Reuters) - Many U.S companies, including FedEx and General Motors, were forced to temporarily shut operations on Tuesday as a bone-chilling winter storm caused power outages and gas shortages in parts of the country.

The rare deep freeze swept the southern North America over the three-day Presidents Day holiday weekend, leaving millions without power and sending front-month gas futures to an over three-month high.

General Motors canceled the first shift at its plants in Spring Hill, Tennessee, Bowling Green in Kentucky, Fort Wayne in Indiana and Arlington in Texas, factories that make some of its most profitable pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles including Chevrolet Silverado and Escalade.

“We will be making decisions at the respective plants later this morning regarding their production status for 2nd shift today,” a GM spokesman said.

Japan’s Toyota Motor and Nissan Motor also scrapped the first shift at some of their U.S. plants. Jeep maker Stellantis said it suspended production at its Toledo assembly complex in Ohio.

GM’s smaller rival Ford Motor said it had stopped production of best-selling F-150 pickup trucks at its Kansas City assembly plant until Feb. 21 to conserve its supply of natural gas.

Some other Ford facilities that suspended operations included Hermosillo assembly plant in Mexico, Flat Rock factory in Michigan and Ohio assembly plant in Avon Lake, Ohio.

Package delivery company United Parcel Service said operations at its Dallas hub in Texas and Worldport air hub at Louisville International Airport were back to normal.

The company said it did not have any coronavirus vaccine shipments in its network on Monday night.

UPS rival FedEx said severe weather was affecting its ability to deliver packages in certain cities.

Poultry producer Sanderson Farms said it suspended operations at its Texas, Mississippi and Louisiana (Hammond) processing plants Monday and Tuesday.

A spokeswoman for Tyson Foods Inc, the biggest U.S. meat company by sales, said the firm had suspended or scaled back operations at some facilities.

The freeze also wreaked havoc on the U.S. energy sector, bringing operations to a halt at the Houston Ship channel, while several oil refineries remained offline.

https://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSKBN2AG1RI

Finally, in Tokyo Bay an electric boat. Let’s hope they don’t short circuit. I wonder if it’s safe to touch the railings when it’s raining? We will shortly find out. Seems to me to be inventing the square wheel.

Electric tanker set to enter use in Tokyo Bay

By Ben Coxworth  February 15, 2021

We've already seen electric motorboats and even ferries, but a considerably larger battery-electric vessel should soon be in operation. It's called the e5 tanker and interestingly enough, it will be used to deliver conventional fuel to other ships.

The 62 meter-long (203-ft) vessel is being developed via the Japanese e5 Project, which is a consortium of shipping and maritime technology companies. Project partner Asahi Tanker has placed an order for the first two tankers, which will be used for fuel delivery in Tokyo Bay. Kawasaki Heavy Industries is designing the propulsion system.

Each 499-ton (453-tonne) ship will incorporate two 1,740-kWh Orca ESS lithium-ion battery packages made by Corvus Energy, for a combined capacity of 3,480 kWh – or 3.5 megawatt-hours. Those packs will power the motors of two 300-kW azimuth thrusters, delivering a cruising speed of about 10 knots (19 km/h or 12 mph). Battery range per charge is presently described simply as "many hours."

Not only will the e5 produce no exhaust emissions, but its smooth-running electric motors should reportedly create fewer vibrations and less noise than traditional engines, making onboard conditions more comfortable for the crew. Additionally, in the event of a natural disaster in the Tokyo Bay region, the ship can provide electricity to emergency services.

The two tankers are currently in the process of being constructed by KOA Industry Co. Ltd. and Imura Shipyard. Plans call for the first vessel to enter service sometime next year, with the second to follow in 2023.

Sources: Corvus Energy, e5 Lab, Kawasaki, Asahi Tanker via IEEE Spectrum

https://newatlas.com/marine/e5-electric-tanker-ship/

All is change; all yields its place and goes.

 

Euripides.

Covid-19 Corner                       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

More on that dubious “finding” last week against Vitamin C and zinc. It was not all it seemed. Is a hidden agenda in play? Approx.  8 minutes.

COVID19 Update - Vitamin C and Zinc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gi1MC8BG1dA

Ivermectin – time for action

by Christine Clark

Published on 4 February 2021

A plan to eradicate SARS-CoV-2 in Belgium in six weeks using ivermectin was recently put forward by a Belgian virologist. As the number people testing positive grows and hospitals struggle to cope, this approach deserves serious consideration in other countries too

In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was much talk of drug repurposing and the search for suitable candidate drugs began. It was not long before the majority of research effort and money was being poured into existing antiviral drugs and a sprinkling of others.¹ In more than 500 trials registered in the first six months, the majority focused on a small number of drugs including hydroxychloroquine, ritonavir, azithromycin, tocilizumab, lopinavir, chloroquine and ivermectin. By late 2020, there was a wave of published results from therapeutic trials of medicines reporting a lack of impact on mortality with use of remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir/ritonavir, interferon, convalescent plasma, tocilizumab, and monoclonal antibody therapy. One year into the pandemic, the only drug with proven benefits was dexamethasone (for patients who were already hypoxaemic). One drug that had received relatively little attention until recently was ivermectin.

Ivermectin has been widely used to treat a variety of human parasites since its introduction in 1981. It is estimated that four billion doses have been taken over the past 40 years. Such was its impact that the two scientists who discovered and developed ivermectin subsequently received the 2015 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine. Ivermectin is on the WHO’s model list of essential medicines. 

A number of clinical trials with ivermectin have been running since early in the pandemic and it has become clear that ivermectin has activity against SARS-CoV-2 and that it is effective both for prophylaxis and treatment of COVID-19. A rigorous meta-analysis of the 15 randomised controlled trials and observational controlled trials that have so far reported their results has been carried out by Lawrie, in the UK.² The results show that ivermectin treatment reduces deaths by an average 83% (95% CI 65%–92%). It also reduces the risk of deterioration by 53% (95% CI 23%–71%). Prophylactic ivermectin given to health care workers or relatives of infected persons reduces the risk of infection by 88% (95% CI 82%–92%). 

A group of intensivists in the USA – the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care (FLCCC) Alliance has called for the rapid introduction of ivermectin to stem the tide of infections.³ Furthermore, Marc Wathelet, a Belgian virologist has argued that SARS-CoV-2 could be eradicated in Belgium in the space of six weeks if ivermectin were used.⁴ Similar results could be expected in other countries if the same protocol was followed.

Wathelet’s proposal hinges on the use of ivermectin at all stages of COVID-19 infection – “a multi-pronged approach”, as advocated by the FLCCC Alliance. Critically, it calls for ivermectin prophylaxis to control the spread of the disease. He suggests two doses of 0.3mg/kg 72 hours apart every month, for health care workers and for family members of those who test positive for SARS-CoV-2. Transmission within households in one of the major drivers of the pandemic and prophylactic ivermectin could cut this dramatically. Contacts of cases should also receive prophylactic treatment. The next step is ivermectin for early treatment of people with symptoms of COVID-19 infection to reduce the severity and duration of the disease.

At present only paracetamol is recommended. The third step is the use of ivermectin in severe COVID-19 infection to reduce mortality.

More

https://hospitalpharmacyeurope.com/views/ivermectin-time-for-action/

 

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Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Rt Covid-19

https://rt.live/

Covid19info.live 

https://wuflu.live/

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

This technology could transform renewable energy. BP and Chevron just invested

Published: Feb. 16, 2021 at 2:00 a.m. ET  

Eavor promises a groundbreaking form of geothermal energy that could be installed in many places around the world.

BP and Chevron have made a landmark expansion into geothermal energy on Tuesday, betting on a new technology that could prove to be the world’s first scalable clean energy derived from a constant source: the natural heat of the earth, 

The two major oil companies have headlined a $40 million funding round into a Canadian geothermal energy firm called Eavor. Based in Calgary, Eavor has pioneered a new form of technology that could feasibly be deployed in many places around the world.

The investment marks a key move into an area otherwise ignored by energy companies, which have largely looked to wind and solar projects in their efforts to diversify away from fossil fields.

It is the first investment into geothermal energy for BP BP, +1.79% and a re-entry into the field for Chevron CVX, +0.58%, which sold its geothermal assets in 2016.

Eavor has previously only accepted angel investment and venture capital. The $40 million injection will be used to further research and development to help scale the power system to be price-competitive.

Also read: Even with $1.1 trillion firepower, this fund is battling rivals to get its hands on green-energy opportunities

“We see Eavor’s potential to be complementary to our growing wind and solar portfolios,” said Felipe Arbelaez, BP’s senior vice president of zero carbon energy. “Technology such as Eavor’s has the potential to deliver geothermal power and heat and help unlock a low carbon future.”

Eavor has developed a new type of geothermal technology that, in very simple terms, creates an underground “radiator.” 

The Eavor “Loop” consists of a closed-loop network of pipes installed typically 3 kilometers to 4 kilometers below the earth’s surface, originating and terminating in the same aboveground facility. The pipes are installed using advanced drilling techniques perfected in the oil patch.

Liquid travels in the pipes from the aboveground facility through the hot ambient underground environment, before naturally circulating back to the top of the loop. The hot liquid is then converted into electricity or transferred to a district heat grid. 

A major advantage to this type of energy is that it is constant, providing a base load of electricity to a grid system without requiring challenging battery solutions of intermittent wind and solar power. 

Unlike hydroelectricity, which relies on large sources of constant water flow, it is designed to be scaled, and Eavor envisions rigs installed under solar panel fields and in space-constrained regions like Singapore.

Geothermal energy has been around for decades, enjoying a boom period in the 1970s and 1980s before largely falling out of the spotlight in the 1990s. Relying on heat below the surface of the earth, it has long been an attractive proposition for oil-and-gas companies, which have core expertise in below-ground exploration and drilling.

The problem is that conventional geothermal technology relies on finding superhot water sources underground, making them expensive, risky, and rare bets. More recent advances have roots in the shale oil boom, and use fracking techniques to actually create the underground reservoirs needed to generate energy. But this can pose a problem from an environmental and sustainability standpoint.

Eavor’s solution doesn’t require the exploratory risk of traditional geothermal energy or disrupt the earth the way that fracking-style geothermal does.

Plus: Tesla and other car makers will be impacted by Boris Johnson’s new plan for electric vehicles. Here’s how

John Redfern, Eavor’s president and chief executive, told MarketWatch that the system’s predictability, established in field trials in partnership with Royal Dutch Shell RDSA, +1.20%, is repeatable and scalable, making it much like wind and solar installations.

“We’re not an exploration game like traditional oil and gas or traditional geothermal. We’re a repeatable manufacturing process, and as such we don’t need the same rate of return,” Redfern said.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-technology-could-transform-renewable-energy-bp-and-chevron-just-invested-11613458808?mod=home-page

Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell.

Frank Borman.