By Hideyuki
Sano
TOKYO (Reuters) - - Global shares
closed in on their record peak on Friday, with Asian shares taking their lead
from Wall Street, as progress in vaccine distribution prompted bets on further
normalisation in the global economy and earnings recovery.
MSCI’s gauge of Asian shares outside
Japan rose 0.4% while Japan’s Nikkei rallied 1%.
An index of the world’s major 50
markets, MSCI ACWI, extended its gains into a fifth straight day to come within
reach of a record high touched about two weeks ago.
On Wall Street, each of major
indexes rose more than 1% on Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite Index and
S&P 500 setting record highs.
“What’s driving the market is
corporate earnings are posting a strong recovery,” said Jumpei Tanaka,
strategist at Pictet.
“And there are piles of money saved
in MMF (money market funds) and elsewhere that are likely to be invested in
stocks once the economy normalises as vaccination programmes progress.”
Expectations of a large stimulus by
the Biden administration also supported risk sentiment while
better-than-expected data on U.S. job markets published in the past two days is
fanning a bullish mood on the upcoming payroll report due later in the day.
Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields
rose in anticipation of a large pandemic relief bill from Washington as well as
on heightening inflation expectations.
The benchmark 10-year yield stood at
1.136%, having risen to a three-week high of 1.162% the previous day while the
30-year bonds yielded 1.929%, near its 10 1/2-month high of 1.951% touched on
Thursday.
Bond yields rose in Europe as well,
with Germany’s 30-year government bond yield climbing back in positive
territory for the first time since September.
A market gauge of future U.S.
inflation was at its highest since October 2018 while that for the euro zone
hit its highest since May 2019.
In the currency market, the dollar
strengthened against most of its peers as traders’ focus appeared to shift to
the relative strength of the U.S. growth.
Until recent weeks, the dollar had
been sold on expectations that global economic recovery will promote outflows
of funds to riskier currencies from the safe-haven dollar.
“It seems markets are now trying to
trade on economic normalisation based on progress in vaccination,” said Arihiro
Nagata, general manager of global investment at Sumitomo Mitsui Bank.
“The fact that the only currencies
that are doing better than the dollar over the past two days are the British
pound and the Israeli shekel, the two countries that are going further ahead in
vaccination, seems to support that.”
The British pound stood at $1.3678
not far from its 2 1/2-year peak of $1.3759 hit late last month.
More
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/world-shares-close-in-on-record-peak-as-vaccines-fuel-normalisation-hopes-idUSKBN2A501F
Robinhood lifts trading
restrictions on all stocks, including GameStop February 5, 2021 3:35 AM
(Reuters) - Online brokerage app Robinhood
said on Thursday it has removed temporary trading restrictions on all stocks,
including GameStop Corp and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc, according to an
update on its website.
Earlier in the day, Robinhood's website
showed that the trading limit on GameStop's shares was set at 500, while for
AMC the limit was set at 5,500 shares. (bit.ly/3cJzNmm )
Trading restrictions on a few other stocks
had been lifted on Wednesday.
The online broker, one of the hottest venues
in last week’s retail-trading frenzy, had put temporary buying restrictions on
a number of securities including Nokia, Express Inc , as clearing
house-mandated deposit requirements for equities increased ten-fold.
GameStop’s shares and others favored
recently by retail investors fell further on Thursday, while U.S. Treasury
Secretary Janet Yellen vowed to protect investors, but also said financial
market regulators needed to fully understand the recent trading frenzy before
taking any action.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-retail-trading-robinhood/robinhood-lifts-trading-restrictions-on-all-stocks-including-gamestop-idUSKBN2A50AB
Oil prices rise to highest in a
year on U.S. growth optimism, crude supply restraint
February
5, 2021 4:47 AM By Roslan
Khasawneh
Singapore
(Reuters) - Oil prices climbed on Friday to their highest levels in a year,
extending a run of strong gains on signs of economic growth in the United
States and a continued commitment by producers to hold back crude supply.
“Rising confidence in an upturn in
economic and oil demand recovery around the corner is a major impetus for
crude,” said Vandana Hari, energy analyst at Vanda Insights.
“Right now, the concurrent
tightening of supply due to the additional Saudi cuts is adding to the
tailwinds,” Hari said. “Brent may be well on its way to the $60 milestone.”
Brent crude futures climbed 40
cents, or 0.7%, to $59.24 a barrel by 0428 GMT, after hitting a high of $59.41,
its highest since Feb. 20 last year. Brent is on track to rise 6% this week.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
crude futures jumped 42 cents, or 0.8%, to $56.65 a barrel, after touching a
high of $56.84, its top since Jan. 22 last year. The benchmark contract is on
track for a weekly gain of nearly 9%, which would be its biggest weekly gain
since October.
In a sign of tightening crude oil
supplies, the six-month backwardation in Brent and WTI futures - when the price
for prompt delivery is higher than the price for future delivery - jumped to
13-month highs for both contracts at $2.41 and $2.30 a barrel, respectively.
Markets were encouraged by
stronger-than-expected orders for U.S. goods in December, pointing to strength
in manufacturing, and hopes for swift approval by lawmakers of President Joe
Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid plan.
“OPEC+ discipline has been a real
positive,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets,
referring to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies
led by Russia. The alliance this week reaffirmed its support for deep supply
cuts which have helped to bring down swollen global crude stockpiles.
“And then when we have signs of
better economic growth, then it’s up and away (for prices),” said McCarthy.
Chinese demand for crude oil is also
helping support the market, as shown by industry tracking that reports two
tankers of North Sea crude oil heading to China for March 22 and March 24, said
Axi global market strategist Stephen Innes.
More
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-prices-rise-to-highest-in-a-year-on-u-s-growth-optimism-crude-supply-restraint-idUSKBN2A508I?il=0
Silver
certificate (United States)
Silver certificates are a type of representative money issued between 1878 and
1964 in the United States as part of its circulation of paper
currency .[1] silver
agitation by citizens who were angered by the Fourth Coinage Act , which had effectively placed
the United States on a gold standard .[2] silver dollar coins and later (for one year –
June 24, 1967 to June 24, 1968) in raw silver bullion.[1] Federal Reserve Notes and are thus obsolete,
but still valid legal tender at their face value and thus are still an
accepted form of currency.[1]
Large-size silver certificates (1878 to 1923)[nb
1] [4] [5] [5] [6] [7] [8] National Numismatic Collection at
the Smithsonian's National Museum of American History .
The Coinage Act of 1873 [9] [10] [2] [11] bimetallic [12] Alexander Hamilton [13] [nb
2] Revised Statutes legal tender [15] Crime
of '73 [16] [17] [18] [19] [11] Bland–Allison Act veto [20] [21] [22] [n
More
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_certificate_(United_States)
How the Great Inflation of the
1970s Happened By Leslie Kramer Updated Oct 1, 2020
It's the 1970s, and the stock market is a mess. It has lost
nearly 50% over a 20-month period, and for close to a decade few people want
anything to do with stocks.1
Economic growth is weak, which results in rising
unemployment that eventually reaches double-digits.2
3
The easy-money policies of the American central bank—designed
to generate full employment by the early 1970s—also resulted in high inflation .4 5
The central bank (once under different leadership) would later reverse its
policies, raising interest rates to some 20%—a number once considered usurious.6 For interest-sensitive
industries, such as housing and cars, rising interest rates cause a calamity.
With interest rates skyrocketing, many people are priced out of new cars and
homes.7
Periods of
rapid inflation occur when the prices of goods and services in an economy
suddenly rise, eroding the purchasing power of savings. The 1970s
saw some of the highest rates of inflation in the United States in recent
history, with interest rates rising in turn to nearly 20%. Central
bank policy, the abandonment of the gold window, Keynesian economic
policy, and market psychology all contributed to this decade of high
inflation. Interest Rate Casualties This is the gruesome story of the great
inflation of the 1970s, which began in late 1972 and didn't end until the early
1980s.8 In his book, "Stocks for the Long Run: A Guide for
Long-Term Growth " (1994), Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel, called it
"the greatest failure of American macroeconomic policy in the postwar
period."9
The great inflation was blamed on oil prices, currency speculators, greedy
businessmen, and avaricious union leaders. However, it is clear that monetary policies , which financed massive budget deficits
and were supported by political leaders, were the cause. This mess was proof of
what Milton Friedman said in his book, Money Mischief: Episodes in Monetary
History : Inflation is always "a monetary phenomenon."10
The great inflation and the recession that
followed wrecked many businesses and hurt countless individuals.11
5 Interestingly, John Connally,
the Nixon-installed Treasury Secretary who did not have formal economics
training, later declared personal bankruptcy.
More
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/1970s-great-inflation.asp
Finally, off topic
but interesting, plus interesting graphic.
Giant iceberg misses South
Georgia Island and breaks up rapidly By David Szondy February 03, 2021
An environmental disaster may have been averted as images
from ESA's Copernicus fleet of satellites show the giant
iceberg A-68a turning away from South Georgia Island and starting to break
up into smaller bergs.
One of the largest icebergs ever recorded, A-68a broke away
from Antarctica's Larsen-C ice sheet in July 2017. Though it covered a
remarkable 2,187 square miles (5,664 sq km) and was on average 761 feet (232 m)
thick, it rapidly faded from the public consciousness as it floated north for
three years.
Then, in 2020, satellite images and
military reconnaissance flights showed that, though the iceberg had lost over
30 percent of its original size, it was on a collision course with South Georgia,
which is home to sustainable fishing grounds and one of the world's largest
marine conservation areas.
The fear was that A-68c might ground
in the broad shallows that surround the island and cause large-scale
environmental damage by interfering with the feeding patterns of the resident
seals and penguins, tearing up the seabed, and flooding the sea with cold fresh
water at a rate of 27,000 cubic feet (767 cu m) per second, or 12 times the
output of the River Thames.
That appears to be off the cards as
images from December 2020 on showed that the ocean currents were pushing the
berg to the southeast and it was losing mass as a huge part of the iceberg
calved away. More promising, it recently started falling apart as a new iceberg
measuring 33 miles (53 km) long and 11 miles (18 km) wide, called A-68G, calved
last week. A large crack then appeared and two more bergs, A-6H and A-68I,
calved off.
As a result, A-68A is now
"only" 37 miles (60 km) long and 14 miles (22 km) wide, and is 140
miles (225 km) from South Georgia and drifting south. The other bergs are also
drifting apart, with A-68H 81 miles (130 km) from South Georgia and drifting
north into open water.
According to ESA, the Copernicus satellites will continue
to monitor the icebergs and the ocean currents carrying them along as they
continue to break up and shrink.
Source: ESA
https://newatlas.com/science/giant-iceberg-misses-south-georgia-island-breaks-up/
Does history
repeat?
Covid-19 Corner This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Can you still transmit Covid-19
after vaccination? By Zaria Gorvett
3rd February 2021
There's no evidence that any of the current
Covid-19 vaccines can completely stop people from being infected – and this has
implications for our prospects of achieving herd immunity.
t was 17 June 2009. An 11-year-old boy returned to the US
from the UK – and inadvertently brought something with him. Later that week,
while attending a religious education programme in Sullivan County, New York,
he developed a mysterious swelling of his salivary glands. He had mumps, a
respiratory infection spread by contact with droplets in the air.
Meanwhile, the religious course continued. The 400 children
in attendance spent hours each day engaging in prolonged face-to-face contact –
specifically, a kind of Orthodox Jewish education involving facing a study
partner, a chavrusa, across a narrow table, while analysing and
debating text from the Talmud. By the time the programme ended, 22 others had
been infected, along with three adults.
As the students went back to their homes, the virus spread
to Brooklyn and Rockland County, then on to Ocean County and Orange County. In
all, the outbreak lasted a year, and at least 3,502
people developed the disease .
When scientists analysed what had happened, they suggested
that the chavrusa style of learning might have allowed for "particularly
efficient transmission of mumps virus". What might seem most surprising in
this case is that the accidental super-spreader had received a full course of
the MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) vaccine. It's likely that he did have some
immunity – like the other vaccinated children, he developed relatively mild
symptoms with no complications – but he was still able to carry the virus and
transmit it to others.
In fact, most vaccines don't
fully protect against infection , even if they can block symptoms from
appearing. As a result, vaccinated people can unknowingly carry and spread
pathogens. Occasionally, they can even start epidemics.
"Effective" or
"sterilising" immunity
There are two main types of immunity
you can achieve with vaccines. One is so-called "effective" immunity,
which can prevent a pathogen from causing serious disease, but can't stop it
from entering the body or making more copies of itself. The other is
"sterilising immunity", which can thwart infections entirely, and
even prevent asymptomatic cases. The latter is the aspiration of all vaccine
research, but surprisingly rarely achieved.
More
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210203-why-vaccinated-people-may-still-be-able-to-spread-covid-19
What Will it Take to Make
Covid-19 Vaccines Variant-Proof? As emerging mutations threaten the progress
made against the pandemic, scientists and regulators are racing to figure out a
process for updating shots.
2.03.2021 08:00 AM
Last week, two more
pharmaceutical firms backed by the US federal government’s Operation Warp Speed
program announced preliminary results from large-scale clinical trials of their
Covid-19 vaccines. And both had very welcome results to report. Mostly.
According
to Johnson & Johnson’s press
release , the company’s single shot was 85 percent effective
in preventing severe forms of the disease across the 44,000 people enrolled in
each of three trials in the United States, Latin America, and South Africa. But
when it came to fending off more mild cases of coronavirus infection, the
vaccine worked best in the US, where it was 72 percent protective compared to
just 57 percent in South Africa. (The shot’s efficacy in Latin America was 66
percent.)
It was the same story with Novavax, a much smaller, Maryland-based
company. In its 15,000-person United Kingdom trial, the vaccine demonstrated 89
percent efficacy against mild, moderate, and severe cases of Covid-19; in the
company’s smaller study in South Africa, the efficacy rate fell to about 50
percent.
The dramatic difference likely comes down to the
particular versions of the coronavirus circulating in different locations.
Late last year, around the time that both Novavax and Johnson & Johnson
were launching their South African trials, scientists in Durban uncovered a new
cluster of cases, all united by a unique constellation of mutations in the gene
for the
virus’s spike protein . That variant, known as B.1.351, quickly expanded
across the country, becoming the dominant strain in just a few weeks’ time and
fueling a massive surge in new infections.
Since B.1.351’s initial discovery, scientists around the
world have been
sprinting to better understand its mutations . A series of non-peer-reviewed
studies posted
as preprints in recent weeks found that one in particular, called E484K,
made it much harder for antibodies found in the blood of recovered Covid-19
patients and immunized people to recognize version B.1.351 of the virus. Based
on those lab experiments, scientists had a strong suspicion that the current
class of authorized vaccines would still work against that strain—but maybe
just not as well. Data gathered from the Novavax and Johnson & Johnson
trials now seems to be bolstering that hunch.
----B.1.351
is one of at least three variants —including one first found in the UK and
another in Brazil—thought to spread more easily than earlier forms of the
coronavirus, though it’s not yet clear how much more transmissible each one is,
and to what extent they can cause reinfections. What is apparent to
scientists and public health experts is that the US, and indeed the world, is
now in a race to vaccinate as many people as possible before these problematic
mutations gain a foothold. But at the same time, parallel efforts to develop
and distribute multi-variant vaccines to tackle all the existing strains must
also begin. How will that actually work?
Executives from both Pfizer and Moderna, the first
companies to have Covid-19 vaccines authorized by the US Food and Drug
Administration, have said they are retooling their shots to boost protection
against these new mutations, just as a precaution. Moderna has gone so far to
begin preparing for a Phase I study of a B.1.351-specific booster dose that
would be given as a follow-up to people who already received the original
vaccine.
More. Much, much, more.
https://www.wired.com/story/what-will-it-take-to-make-covid-19-vaccines-variant-proof/?bxid=5cc9e09a3f92a477a0e84d6d&bxid=5cc9e09a3f92a477a0e84d6d&cndid=52110326&cndid=52110326&esrc=Wired_etl_load&esrc=Wired_etl_load&hasha=51795d9ef38d316d0a8b791c47d95a9d&hasha=51795d9ef38d316d0a8b791c47d95a9d&hashb=327a6dd0733c699cd325f763961d024592a4e823&hashb=327a6dd0733c699cd325f763961d024592a4e823&hashc=427dabf021c0657f2ce4fe4260f86229ce001b054a4a374ed7059797c19bdfd2&hashc=427dabf021c0657f2ce4fe4260f86229ce001b054a4a374ed7059797c19bdfd2&mbid=mbid%3DCRMWIR012019%0A%0A&mbid=mbid%3DCRMWIR012019%0A%0A&source=EDT_WIR_NEWSLETTER_0_DAILY_ZZ&source=EDT_WIR_NEWSLETTER_0_DAILY_ZZ&utm_brand=wired&utm_brand=wired&utm_campaign=aud-dev&utm_campaign=aud-dev&utm_content=Final&utm_content=Final&utm_mailing=WIR_Daily_020321&utm_mailing=WIR_Daily_020321&utm_medium=email&utm_medium=email&utm_source=nl&utm_source=nl&utm_term=list1_p3&utm_term=list1_p3
The weather has a bigger impact
on COVID spread than social distancing, study concludes February 3, 2021
WASHINGTON — A lot of the blame for COVID-19’s
“second wave” has been pointed at people not following safety guidelines put
out by health experts and government officials. A new report however, says
don’t blame people, blame the weather. Researchers from the University of
Nicosia in Cyprus find hot weather and wind have a bigger impact on virus
transmission rates than social distancing during a pandemic.
Their study concludes that two
outbreaks in one year is a natural phenomenon during a massive outbreak.
Temperature, humidity, and wind can help predict when a second wave will peak,
which the researchers call “inevitable.”
Though face masks, travel restrictions, and
social distancing guidelines may help slow the number of
new infections in the short term, study authors say the lack of climate data
included in epidemiological models has left a glaring hole in the plans to
defend against COVID .
Looking at Paris, New York City, and Rio de
Janeiro, scientists discovered they could accurately predict the timing of the second outbreak in each city. Their research suggests two
outbreaks per year is a natural weather-dependent phenomenon during any
pandemic.
Typical models for predicting the
behavior of an epidemic contain only two basic parameters, transmission and
recovery rates. Professors Talib Dbouk and Dimitris Drikakis say these rates
tend to be treated as constants, but that this is not actually the case.
Since temperature, relative
humidity, and wind speed all play a significant role, the researchers aimed to
modify typical models to account for these climate conditions. They call their
new weather-dependent variable the Airborne Infection Rate (AIR) index.
When applying the AIR index to models of major cities, the
team discovered the behavior of the virus in Rio de Janeiro is markedly
different from the behavior of COVID in Paris and New York. This is due to seasonal variations in the northern and southern
hemispheres, consistent with real data. The authors emphasize the importance of
accounting for these seasonal variations when designing virus safety measures.
“We propose that epidemiological models must incorporate
climate effects through the AIR index,” says Prof. Drikakis in a media release by the American Institute of Physics.
“National lockdowns or large-scale lockdowns should not be based on short-term
prediction models that exclude the effects of weather seasonality.”
“In pandemics, where massive and effective vaccination is
not available, the government planning should be longer-term by considering
weather effects and design the public health and safety guidelines
accordingly,” Prof. Dbouk adds. “This could help avoid reactive responses in
terms of strict lockdowns that adversely affect all aspects of life and the
global economy.”
As temperatures rise and humidity falls, Drikakis and Dbouk
expect another improvement in infection numbers. They note, however, that mask
and distancing guidelines should continue to be followed with the appropriate
weather-based modifications.
The research group’s previous work showed that droplets of
saliva can travel up to 18 feet in just five seconds when unmasked people
cough.
The new findings appear in the journal Physics
of Fluids
https://www.studyfinds.org/weather-impact-covid-19-spread/
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on Sme.sk and Korzar.sk Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most
informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines . https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker . https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford
Website . https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker . https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
https://rt.live/
Covid19info.live
https://wuflu.live/
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
Today, something a
little different.
Hit by shortage, Volkswagen
demands boost to Europe chip sector
February
4, 2021 1:16 PM By Jan
Schwartz , Christoph Steitz
FRANKFURT
(Reuters) - Europe needs to stump up cash to boost its chip industry, a board
member of the continent’s largest carmaker Volkswagen said, pointing to a
global semiconductor shortage that has highlighted dependence on foreign
players.
“We won’t produce chips ourselves,”
Markus Duesmann, Volkswagen’s board member in charge of research &
development and head of luxury unit Audi, told Reuters. “But of course we would
like to have strong chipmakers that are at least on par with Asia and the
United States.”
“Ultimately technology is decisive
for the success of the group,” he said, adding Europe should be leading in
future technologies, such as software and chips.
One way to achieve this, he said,
could be funding programmes modelled after an existing plan to boost Europe’s
battery cell technology under a scheme called Important Project of Common
European Interest (IPCEI).
Germany on Wednesday said European
countries were planning to support the local production of technology hardware,
including processors and semiconductors, via an IPCEI, with targeted aid that
could result in investments of up to 50 billion euros ($60 billion).
However, the exact level of
investment and the question of who will foot the bill have not been specified.
Global automakers have been caught
off guard by a shortage of crucial semiconductors in the wake of a rapid
recovery of the automotive market, highlighting the need to cut dependency on
Asian manufacturers.
Volkswagen has doubled its budget
for software development, a key area to tackle the challenges of autonomous
driving, Duesmann said, adding this was one of the drivers to create the
Car.Software.Org unit with 5,000 employees.
The company also owns a 40% stake in
Pittsburgh-based self-driving startup Argo AI, with Ford owning an equal share,
but Duesmann said pursuing both paths was perfectly in line with the carmaker’s
strategy and product portfolio.
“Those are different strands in
terms of development and we will continue (to develop) them like that.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-chips-audi/hit-by-shortage-volkswagen-demands-boost-to-europe-chip-sector-idUSKBN2A41RS?feedType=mktg&feedName=&WT.mc_id=Newsletter-US&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Workday%20Q1%202021%202018%20Template:%20UK%20TECHNOLOGY%20ROUNDUP%20-%202/4%20-%20UK&utm_term=NEW:%20UK%20Technology%20Roundup
Another weekend and a
weekend to ponder on what all the “free money” is really doing to what little
is left of capitalism. Serfdom or a giant inflation that makes the 1970s look
like a walk in the park? Have a gear weekend everyone.
“The dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem.”
US Treasury Secretary John Connolly.
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