By Marc
Jones , Thyagaraju Adinarayan
LONDON (Reuters) - The $6.2
billion-an-hour rise in the value of world stocks since March was dubbed the
“mother of all asset bubbles” by BofA analysts last week - and all of a sudden
there is a high-pitched hissing sound.
Electric car doyen Tesla, which
raced up 750% in last year’s frenzy, skidded into the red for 2021 on Tuesday,
hit by a selloff of tech stocks and a plunge in Bitcoin, in which the carmaker
recently invested $1.5 billion.
Both are technically in bear
markets, defined as down 20% from their latest peaks, although for
ultra-volatile Bitcoin which has surged well over 1,000% since March, that was
admittedly only a few days ago.
More broadly, Tesla and the
bellwether FAAMG quintet - Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Google - have
seen half a trillion dollars, or around the equivalent of Austria’s economy,
topsliced off their combined value this year.
Meanwhile ten-year U.S. Treasury
yields, a key driver of global borrowing costs, have gone up from just under
0.9% to just shy of 1.4% which, while barely visible in a historical context,
is nevertheless a 50% increase.
For UniCredit’s Co-Head of Strategy
Research Elia Lattuga, the quick rise in benchmark yields represents “a
significant risk for equities in general but especially for the parts of market
like growth and tech stocks that have seen the sharpest expansion in
valuations.”
He added that the 80% rise in world
stocks since last March’s COVID-19 meltdown - at a pace almost 10 times faster
than that seen after the 2008 global financial crisis - had been driven by the
well over $20 trillion worth of aid provided by governments and central banks.
More
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-bubbles-analysis/analysis-bubbles-bubbles-bound-for-trouble-idUSKBN2AN27E
Below, yet more
fallout from that easy to win trade war along with other complications. Steel
inflation about to hit?
U.S. manufacturers grapple with
steel shortages, soaring prices February
23, 2021 11:05 AM By Rajesh Kumar Singh
CHICAGO (Reuters) - An aerospace
parts maker in California is struggling to procure cold-rolled steel, while an
auto and appliance parts manufacturer in Indiana is unable to secure additional
supplies of hot-rolled steel from mills.
Both companies and more are getting
hit by a fresh round of disruption in the U.S. steel industry. Steel is in
short supply in the United States and prices are surging. Unfilled orders for
steel in the last quarter were at the highest level in five years, while
inventories were near a 3-1/2-year low, according to data from the Census
Bureau. The benchmark price for hot-rolled steel hit $1,176/ton this month, its
highest level in at least 13 years.
Soaring prices are driving up costs
and squeezing profits at steel-consuming manufacturers, provoking a new round
of calls to end former President Donald Trump’s steel tariffs.
“Our members have been reporting
that they have never seen such chaos in the steel market,” said Paul Nathanson,
executive director at Coalition of American Metal Manufacturers and Users.
The group, which represents more
than 30,000 companies in the manufacturing sector and downstream supply chains,
this month asked President Joe Biden to terminate Trump’s metal tariffs.
Domestic steel mills that idled
furnaces last year amid fears of a prolonged pandemic-induced economic downturn
have been slow in ramping up production, despite a recovery in demand for cars
and trucks, appliances, and other steel products. Capacity utilization rates at
steel mills - a measure of how fully production capacity is being used – has moved
up to 75% after falling to 56% in the second quarter of 2020 but is still way
below 82% in last February.
Steel shipments are up, but still
below last year’s levels.
---- Domestic steel prices have risen more
than 160% since last August, leaving steel consumers in a quandary - whether to
absorb or pass along the increased cost.
“We’ll be lucky if we break even at
this price,” said Stuart Speyer, president at Tennessee-based Tennsco. Steel
costs for the manufacturer of lockers, bookcases and cabinets are up 98% in the
past six months.
Whirlpool last month said increased
steel costs would shave 150 basis points from its profit this year. Farm
equipment maker AGCO and crane maker Terex have announced price increases to
offset material costs.
---- U.S. steel prices are 68% higher than
the global market price and almost double China’s, even with prices in both
China and Europe up over 80% from their pandemic-induced lows.
The price gap is so wide that even
with a 25% tariff, it would be cheaper to import than buy from domestic mills.
The United States imported 18% of its steel needs last year.
Logistical challenges, like container
shortages, and thin overseas supply are keeping imports in check. But some
distributors expect imports to pick up by June if the domestic market remains
tight.
More
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-steel-insight/u-s-manufacturers-grapple-with-steel-shortages-soaring-prices-idUSKBN2AN0YQ
Up next it never
rains but it pours for Taiwan’s chipmakers. Who knew a drought in Taiwan could close car
makers from Germany to the USA.
Chipmakers in drought-hit Taiwan
order water trucks to prepare for 'the worst' February
24, 2021 5:41 AM By Reuters Staff
TAIPEI (Reuters) - Taiwan
chipmakers are buying water by the truckload for some of their foundries as the
island widens restrictions on water supply amid a drought that could exacerbate
a chip supply crunch for the global auto industry.
Some auto makers have already been
forced to trim production, and Taiwan had received requests for help to bridge
the shortage of auto chips from countries including the United States and
Germany.
Taiwan, a key hub in the global
technology supply chain for giants such as Apple Inc, will begin on Thursday to
further reduce water supply for factories in central and southern cities where
major science parks are located.
Water levels in several reservoirs
in the island’s central and southern region stand at below 20%, following
months of scant rainfall and a rare typhoon-free summer.
“We have planned for the worst,”
Taiwan Economy Minister Wang Mei-hua told reporters on Tuesday. “We hope
companies can reduce water usage by 7% to 11%.”
With limited rainfall forecast for
the months ahead, Taiwan Water Corporation this week said the island has
entered the “toughest moment”.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Co Ltd (TSMC), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, this week started
ordering small amounts of water by the truckload to supply some of its
facilities across the island.
“We are making preparations for our
future water demand,” TSMC told Reuters, describing the move as a “pressure
test”. The chip giant said it has seen no impact on production. Both Vanguard
International Semiconductor Corporation and United Microelectronics Corp signed
contracts with water trucks and said there was no impact on production.
Vanguard said it has started a drill
to truck water to its facilities in the northern city of Hsinchu.
Taiwanese technology companies have
long complained about a chronic water shortage, which became more acute after
factories expanded production following a Sino-U.S. trade war.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-taiwan-drought-semiconductors/chipmakers-in-drought-hit-taiwan-order-water-trucks-to-prepare-for-the-worst-idUSKBN2AO0G3?il=0
Finally, more on that
Pratt & Whitney jet engine failure over Denver. Given the number of P&W
engine failures in recent years, something somewhere in the manufacturing or
maintenance systems, or both, seems to
have gone badly wrong.
EXPLAINER: Why a plane’s engine
exploded over Denver By
DAVID KOENIG
The investigation into an engine
explosion on a jetliner taking off from Denver is focusing on a fan blade that
appeared to be weakened by wear and tear, a development reminiscent of a fatal
failure on board another plane in 2018.
These and other recent engine failures
raise questions over long-held assumptions about how long fan blades last and
whether they are being inspected often enough.
A Boeing 777 operated by United
Airlines had to make an emergency landing in Denver after one of its engines
blew apart, spewing huge chunks of wreckage that landed in neighborhoods and
sports fields. Passengers captured video of the crippled engine, wobbling and
still on fire, as pilots made a safe return to the airport minutes after the
plane bound for Hawaii took off.
Investigators said late Monday that two fan
blades in the Pratt & Whitney engine broke off and one of them showed signs
of metal fatigue, or hairline cracks from the stress of wear and tear. They
believe the weakened blade broke off first, then chipped off half of an
adjacent blade.
Robert Sumwalt, chairman of the National
Transportation Safety Board, said the agency’s investigators will examine
maintenance records for the engine and fan blades. He said fan blade pieces —
including one found on a soccer field in a Denver suburb — will be examined
Tuesday in a Pratt & Whitney laboratory.
Federal Aviation Administration head Stephen
Dickson said inspectors quickly determined that inspections should be done more
frequently for the type of hollow fan blades in certain Pratt & Whitney
engines that are used on some Boeing 777s.
As a result, 69 planes and another 59 in
storage were grounded in the U.S., Japan and South Korea, the only countries
with planes using this particular engine. United, the only U.S. carrier with affected
planes, said it grounded 24 Boeing 777s and 28 others will remain parked.
Japanese regulators ordered Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways to ground 32
planes, and South Korea’s Korean Air and Asiana Airlines said Monday they will
ground their Boeing 777s.
Safety experts said the
investigation will focus on why the fan blades snapped — whether mistakes were
made in manufacturing or maintenance or if problems were missed during
inspections — and whether blade inspections need to be done differently or more
often. They will compare Saturday’s incident with similar ones in December in
Japan and in 2018 on another United flight to Hawaii.
Investigators will also look at why the
cowling, which covers the front of the engine, broke off along with other parts.
Photos showed a large gash in the fairing, a piece of composite material that
makes planes more aerodynamic by smoothing out joints where the body meets the
wings.
“That was a substantial hit,” said John Goglia,
a former member of the National Transportation Safety Board, which is
investigating Saturday’s incident. “If that had hit the wing, things might have
been different because the wing is full of fuel” and the broken engine was
still on fire.
Sumwalt said, however, that “there was no structural
damage” to the plane.
Another concern: The engine remained on fire
even after pilots presumably shut off its fuel supply. That could indicate a
fuel leak, said Todd Curtis, a former Boeing engineer and now a safety
consultant.
---- Other mishaps appear to be closely related
to the Denver incident, however.
In December, a Japan Airlines Boeing
777 with the same series Pratt & Whitney engines suffered fan blade damage
and lost a large panel but was able to land safely.
In 2018, another United Airlines
Boeing 777 suffered an engine failure that caused parts of the housing to break
off and fall into the Pacific Ocean as the plane flew from San Francisco to
Honolulu. In a report last year on the incident, the NTSB said Pratt &
Whitney missed signs of cracking in previous inspections of the fan blade that
broke, and it faulted the company’s training. The company told the NTSB it was
fixing the shortcomings.
More
https://apnews.com/article/plane-engine-exploded-denver-explained-66dcd66fcf81f94233cc42e0132036b9
Chairman
Powell laughed. “There’s no use trying,” he said: “one can’t
“I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said President Biden. “When I was
your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed
as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”
With
apologies to Lewis Carroll and Alice.
Covid-19 Corner This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Cash Vouchers for Hong Kongers;
Vaccine Rollouts: Virus Update Bloomberg News 23
February 2021, 22:54 GMT Updated on 24 February 2021, 05:41 GMT
Hong Kong pledged HK$120 billion ($15.5 billion) to support
Thailand received its first batch of doses from Sinovac
Biotech Ltd., allowing it to start its vaccination campaign within a week. The
country may also waive quarantine for vaccinated visitors recognition
The U.S. may soon issue guidance easing public health
protocols for fully vaccinated people, President Joe Biden’s chief medical
adviser Anthony Fauci suggested availability
Key
Developments: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-23/fauci-hints-at-relaxed-rules-u-k-airlines-soar-virus-update?srnd=coronavirus
French researchers trial more
accurate fast COVID-19 test February
23, 2021 10:10 AM By Reuters Staff
VILLENEUVE-D’ASCQ,
France (Reuters) - - French researchers are using tiny antibody particles
extracted from the family of animals that includes camels and llamas to produce
a test they say can detect if patients have COVID-19 faster and more accurately
than existing methods.
The prototype test, called
CorDial-1, has not been approved for use, but initial trials on 300 samples
showed a 90% accuracy rate compared to a Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test,
the most reliable commonly-used method of detecting COVID-19.
The prototype test can deliver
results within 10 minutes, and can be used outside the laboratory, according to
the team developing it, while PCR testing typically takes hours and needs lab
conditions.
There are other quick and portable
COVID-19 tests available, but scientists have raised doubts about their
reliability.
The CorDial-1 test uses antibody fragments
called nanobodies. They are derived from camelids -- a group that includes
camels, dromedaries, llamas and alpacas -- because they are more stable than
antibodies from other creatures.
For the COVID-19 test, the
nanobodies are grafted onto the surface of an electrode. When those nanobodies
come into contact with the “spike” protein of the COVID-19 virus, they interact
to produce a change in the electrical current across the electrode.
When the testing apparatus -- a
device the size of a large USB stick -- is plugged into a smartphone, the
current shows up as a signal on a graph.
“Depending on the height of the
signal, you can say if you are COVID positive or negative,” said Sabine
Szunerits, of the University of Lille, who is working on the project with
scientists at the University of Marseille and the French National Centre for
Scientific Research.
The next phase of the project is to
run a three-month trial on more than 1,000 people.
Christophe Demaille, lead researcher
in molecular electrochemistry at the University of Paris, who is not involved
in the project, said tests that rely on electrical signals are highly portable.
“I
am confident it will be usable anywhere,” he said of the CorDial-1 project.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-covid-test/french-researchers-trial-more-accurate-fast-covid-19-test-idUSKBN2AN0U2
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on Sme.sk and Korzar.sk Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative
update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines . https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker . https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford
Website . https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker . https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
https://rt.live/
Covid19info.live
https://wuflu.live/
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
Today, a EV battery
reality check. Even without a Great Global Warming Texas Freeze, “green” EVs
still have battery problems.
When the Fantasy of Better
Battery Science Doesn’t Match Reality Car companies are fueling the hype and safety is an ongoing
issue — we’re still a long way from the ideal solution for eco-friendly
vehicles.
By Anjani
Trivedi 23 February 2021, 22:30 GMT
With billions of dollars flowing to electric cars , investors are
eagerly waiting for the next breakthrough in battery technology – one that
will underpin the future adoption of green vehicles.
They may be waiting a while: The technical challenges of
making better batteries (and therefore, electric vehicles) are enormous and the
expectations associated with them are even more fantastical.
Such disproportionate enthusiasm is misplaced. Battery costs , which make up almost half the expense of an
electric car, have come down, while their energy density has gone up, meaning
vehicles can go further. Government subsidies are helping too.
Despite these improvements, we are nowhere near the affordability, guaranteed
safety or optimistic forecasts of years past. In fact, installations of older
battery technologies that are safer and cheaper are rising as
carmakers try to keep up with the hype.
It’s clear the path to better batteries is far tougher and longer than all the rosy estimates.
Technology has been forced to chase investors’
expectations. In China, the world’s largest market for electric cars where
sales are growing steadily, battery installations of so-called lithium iron
phosphate, or LFP, batteries – the technology of the last decade – accounted
for 38% of the market, up from 33% the year before. Such batteries lag behind
newer ones by as much as 30% in terms of energy density.
The reality is, these powertrains are highly complex . Even as some promising
advances are made, commercial viability remains a stumbling block. Chief among
those hurdles is boosting energy density and along with it, safety. The more
energy a battery has, the further a car can go. However, that also hastens the
pace of degradation and shortens battery life. Several higher-density batteries
don’t have stable chemical compositions either, leaving them
dangerously vulnerable to combustion.
To get over such challenges, firms are trying to make
solid-state batteries that will be safer and, eventually, cheaper. Others are
intent on boosting battery density by using more nickel content, and
less cobalt, which is expensive and mired in supply issues. The progress so far
has been limited. Investors and analysts, meanwhile, are honing in the
improvements on to individual battery parts, like cathodes and anodes.
The flipside of these advances are often overlooked. For
instance, solid-state batteries that can store more have low power density,
which means their energy delivery is slow, while those with higher nickel
content are less chemically stable. In addition, solid state
batteries have been known to discharge sulphides.
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-02-23/when-the-fantasy-of-better-battery-technology-doesn-t-match-reality?srnd=premium-europe
Finally,
given what’s coming next, Wendy’s 1980s hamburger
ads. Approx. 1 minute. The good old
days.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpypTXccG2I
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MwB5PZciVA
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