In the USA, a tale of two disconnected economies. In stock casinos, fuelled by central bankster mountains of Magic Money Tree fiat money cash, massive bubbles. No billionaire left behind.

In the real Covid-19 lockdown economy, unemployment, rent and mortgage strikes, rising economic carnage.

But according to President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen, all will live happily ever after, once trillions more fiat dollars are electronically printed up and doled out to the huddled masses yearning to breathe free, from the other dire economy.

But will reregulation, climate change mandates, redistributive taxation, really work better in Biden’s USA than they did in Venezuela?

Analysis: Wall Street hedges against possible bumps in U.S. vaccine rollout

January 22, 2021 6:08 AM By April Joyner, Sinéad Carew

NEW YORK (Reuters) - As U.S. stock prices have marched to record highs, futures contracts for Wall Street’s “fear gauge” show some investors are buying insurance against market turbulence that could erupt if surprise glitches hit the U.S. rollout of COVID-19 vaccines.

This hedging can be seen in futures on the Cboe Volatility Index expiring in March and beyond, which are trading well above the index’s current levels.

Uncertainty over the rollout has also helped keep the “fear gauge” hovering above its long-term average near 20, even as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq and small-cap Russell 2000 have rallied to record highs this week.

Investors said they would watch how close President Joe Biden can come to his goal of administering 100 million doses of the vaccine in the first 100 days of his term. On Thursday, he signed executive orders aimed at expanding testing and vaccinations.

“The next 100 days or so will be focused on the vaccine rollout and employment,” said Stacey Gilbert, portfolio manager for derivatives at Glenmede Investment Management. “If unsuccessful, that could potentially be negative for the market.”

Breakthroughs in COVID-19 vaccines and assumptions that life will return by summer to a semblance of normalcy have helped boost the S&P 500, now up more than 70% from its March lows.

There have been rallies in shares of banks, small caps and other companies that would benefit most from economic reopening.

The VIX in turn has drifted lower since March, when it surged to a record closing high of 82.69 after years of muted swings in U.S. stocks. Massive monetary and fiscal stimulus, along with optimism toward an economic recovery, have helped subdue the fear gauge.

Yet missed vaccination targets could bolster the case for investors looking to take profits, potentially ushering in more market swings. Fund managers in a recent BofA Global Research survey named potential problems with vaccine distribution as the market’s top “tail risk” - an event that could cause severe dislocations in asset prices.

“I don’t think we can put virus-related risks behind us,” said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. “There’s a lot of good news priced into markets this year.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-volatility-analysis/analysis-wall-street-hedges-against-possible-bumps-in-u-s-vaccine-rollout-idUSKBN29R0K9

U.S. labor market recovery fading; housing, factories underpin economy

January 21, 2021 1:44 PM By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits decreased modestly last week as the COVID-19 pandemic tears through the nation, raising the risk that the economy shed jobs for a second straight month in January.

Despite the labor market woes, the economy remains anchored by strong manufacturing and housing sectors. Other data on Thursday showed homebuilding and permits for future residential construction surged in December to levels last seen in 2006. Factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region accelerated this month, with manufacturers reporting a boom in new orders.

The services sector has borne the brunt of the coronavirus crisis, disproportionately impacting lower-wage earners, who tend to be women and minorities. Addressing the so-called K-shaped recovery, where better-paid workers are doing well while lower-paid workers are losing out, is one of the key challenges confronting President Joe Biden and his new administration.

White House economic advisor Brian Deese said the fragile labor market underscored the urgency for U.S. Congress to act quickly on Biden’s $1.9 trillion relief plan to “get this virus under control, stabilize the economy, and reduce the long-term scarring that will only worsen if bold action isn’t taken.”Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 900,000 for the week ended Jan. 16, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 910,000 applications in the latest week.

Including a government-funded program for the self-employed, gig workers and others who do not qualify for the regular state unemployment programs 1.4 million people filed claims last week.

Out-of-control coronavirus infections are disrupting operations at businesses like restaurants, gyms and other establishments where crowds tend to gather, reducing hours for many workers and pushing others out of employment.

Consumers are also hunkering down at home, hurting demand. COVID-19 has infected more than 24 million people, with the death toll exceeding 400,000 since the pandemic started in the United States.

U.S. stocks hovered near record highs. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were lower.

Some of the elevation in claims reflects people re-applying for benefits following the government’s recent renewal of a $300 unemployment supplement until March 14 as part of the nearly $900 billion in additional fiscal stimulus. Programs for the self-employed, gig workers as well as those who have exhausted their benefits were also extended.

JOB LOSSES IN JANUARY?

The claims data covered the week during which the government surveyed establishments for the nonfarm payrolls component of January’s employment report. Claims were slightly higher between the December and January survey period.

“Another negative print for payrolls in January remains within the realm of possibility,” said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.

The economy shed 140,000 jobs in December, the first job losses since April when authorities throughout the country enforced stay-at-home measures to slow the spread of the virus. Retail sales fell for a third straight month in December.

Though jobless claims have dropped from a record 6.867 million in March, they remain above their 665,000 peak during the 2007-09 Great Recession.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-labor-market-recovery-fading-housing-factories-underpin-economy-idUSKBN29Q1RT

In post Brexit news, life in the real world, far from the fake news London centric biased media, goes on. Who knew?

Nissan to source more UK batteries as part of Brexit deal 'opportunity'

January 22, 2021 12:24 AM By Costas Pitas

LONDON (Reuters) - Nissan will source more batteries from Britain to avoid tariffs on electric cars after the UK’s trade deal with the EU, which a senior executive told Reuters turned Brexit from a risk into an opportunity for its factory in northeast England.

Chief Operating Officer Ashwani Gupta also said Brexit-related problems at ports since Jan. 1 were “peanuts” for Nissan, which has had to handle COVID-19 and natural disasters.

Following Britain’s departure from the European Union, London and Brussels struck a trade deal on Dec. 24 that avoided major disruption as well as a 10% levy on cars, provided they meet local content rules.

Japan’s Nissan makes about 30,000 Leaf electric cars at its Sunderland factory, most with a locally-sourced 40 kilowatt-hour battery. They remain tariff-free.

But more powerful versions use an imported system, which will now be bought in Britain, creating jobs.

“It will take a few months,” Gupta told Reuters.

“Brexit, which we thought is a risk ... has become an opportunity for Nissan,” he added.

Asked about trade disruption, Gupta told reporters: “When I look at how Nissan has come out from the crisis of (a) tsunami, earthquake, flood, last week snow, tornadoes..., the startup problem which we are seeing in the ports is peanuts.”

“For a global manufacturer... to have additional documentation to fill a form at the border is nothing. People prepared for it, we have updated our software, we have updated our processes. It’s OK.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-nissan/nissan-to-source-more-uk-batteries-as-part-of-brexit-deal-opportunity-idUSKBN29R016

Finally, China warily welcomes Trump’s successor.

Wang Jisi: Even Under President Biden, China Faces Trumpism Without Trump

Jan 21, 2021 05:59 AM

The volatility and slippage in U.S.–China relations since 2009 fundamentally resulted from domestic political changes in both countries. For example, the U.S. blaming China for the new coronavirus pandemic is related to the intensification of ethnic conflicts within the U.S. The Trump administration portrayed its own domestic problems as foreign problems, playing the China card and the immigration card to gain voter support.

Even before former President Donald Trump, during Barack Obama's presidency, there was an "Occupy Wall Street" movement from the left and a "Tea Party" movement from the right. The difficulties the United States faces domestically, whether political, economic, social or cultural, will not be resolved by a change of political parties in power.

Even with Joe Biden as president, there will still be Trumpism without Trump. This represents a persistent change in the U.S. domestic scene, and the various problems the nation faces will remain for quite some time.

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2021-01-21/wang-jisi-even-under-president-biden-china-faces-trumpism-without-trump-101653440.html?utm_source=mailchimp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MustRead&originReferrer=MustRead

China Hopes Biden Will Work to Restore Relations, Respect Nations’ Differences

Jan 21, 2021 08:12 PM

China hopes that the Biden administration will respect the differences between the two countries and work to restore bilateral relations, a foreign ministry spokesperson said Thursday.

“Over the past few years, the Trump administration, especially Pompeo, planted so many landmines in Sino-U.S. relations that need to be removed, burned so many bridges that need to be rebuilt, and damaged so many roads that need to be fixed,” Hua Chunying said at a regular briefing. She said the two governments need to have the courage to listen to and show mutual respect for each other, in line with the expectations of the international community.

Hua said it is normal for two countries to have differences. Citing Biden’s inaugural speech, in which he said that “disagreement doesn’t have to be a cause for total war,” she said the same principle should apply to international relations. Countries that have different social systems, cultures and ideologies can still cooperate in safeguarding world peace and development.

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2021-01-21/china-hopes-biden-will-work-to-restore-relations-respect-nations-differences-101653888.html

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Biden Unveils National Plan; Florida Seeks Limits: Virus Update

Bloomberg News

January 20, 2021, 10:56 PM GMT Updated on January 21, 2021, 10:36 PM GMT

U.S. President Joe Biden presented a national strategy to combat the coronavirus, saying the pandemic is likely to claim another 100,000 lives over roughly the next month. Florida issued an order seeking to limit “vaccine tourism” to the state.

Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government’s infectious-disease chief, said it’s “somewhat of a liberating feeling” to work for Biden after Donald Trump tried to sideline him.

New York City hasn’t stopped giving vaccinations despite shortage warnings and pleas for resupply, but some appointments were canceled. Germany’s coronavirus deaths passed 50,000 while the U.K. suffered its worst day in the pandemic.

Key Developments:

Global Tracker: Cases exceed 97.1 million; deaths surpass 2 million
Vaccine Tracker: More than 54.3 million shots given worldwide
Covid cases are falling in 46 states, easing load on hospitals
Canada’s vaccine rollout hits snags despite huge orders
Senior living’s new sales pitch: sign lease, get vaccine
Palm Beach draws flood of wealthy homebuyers in Covid exodus
Where are our coronavirus vaccines? South Africans ask

Utah Ties Record for Deaths (5:25 p.m. NY)

Utah reported 30 deaths, tying a pandemic record for the most in a single day, bucking a general trend toward declining deaths, cases and hospitalizations.

The state’s seven-day rolling average of deaths fell to six from a peak of more than 20 in mid-December, according to the latest data from the Covid Tracking Project.

Fauci Says ‘Let the Science Speak’ With Biden in Power (4:42 p.m. NY)

Anthony Fauci said he feels “somewhat” liberated working for President Joe Biden after Donald Trump tried to sideline him.

Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, addressed reporters at the WHite House on Thursday as Biden’s chief medical adviser. Under Trump, he had been displaced by Scott Atlas, a politically conservative neuroradiologist who disparaged face masks, social distancing and other public health precautions.

“The idea that you can get up here and talk about what you know, what the evidence, what the science is and know that it’s, let the science speak, is somewhat of a liberating feeling,” Fauci said.

California Case Increase Slows While ICU Capacity Drops (4:35 p.m. NY)

California added 19,673 new cases to 3.04 million, with a slowing pace of increase pushing the 14-day average down to a two-week low. Deaths rose by 571 to 35,004.

The test positivity also dropped to 11%, the lowest in more than a month, and hospitalizations also fell. Still, the state’s ICU bed capacity of 1,030 is still at one of its lowest levels since the start of the pandemic.

The mixed data comes as most of the state is under some form of a lockdown as ICU capacity remains low, and as the state anticipates new clusters of infections after uncovering cases with the new variant.

J&J to Analyze Vaccine Trial Data (3:29 p.m. NY)

Johnson & Johnson has enough data from its late-stage Covid-19 vaccine trial to begin analysis, possibly in a week or two, said Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government’s top infectious disease doctor

J&J had previously said it would have a first chance to review data from its late-stage trial of 45,000 volunteers in the last week of January or the first week of February, consistent with Fauci’s timeline.

Macron Warns Vaccine May Not Work Long-Term (1:43 p.m. NY)

French President Emmanuel Macron told European Union leaders they shouldn’t assume that Covid-19 vaccines will necessarily prove effective in the long run, according to two people with knowledge of his comments.

France reported more than 20,000 new Covid-19 cases for the third straight day as the government warned another lockdown may be unavoidable with the spread of a more contagious variant. The latest seven-day average of new cases is the highest since November, when France was in full lockdown.

France is also raising its target for Covid vaccinations and all residents could be vaccinated by the end of August, Health Minister Olivier Veran said on TF1 television.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-20/biden-to-rejoin-who-u-k-s-suffers-deadliest-day-virus-update?srnd=coronavirus

S.Africa virus strain poses 're-infection risk': study

Issued on: 20/01/2021 - 17:58

The coronavirus variant detected in South Africa poses a "significant re-infection risk" and raises concerns over vaccine effectiveness, according to preliminary research Wednesday, as separate studies suggested the British strain would likely be constrained by immunisations.

Several new variants -- each with a cluster of genetic mutations -- have emerged in recent weeks, sparking fears over an increase in infectiousness as well as suggestions that the virus could begin to elude immune response, whether from prior infection or a vaccine.

These new variants, detected from Britain, South Africa and Brazil, have mutations to the virus' spike protein, which enables the virus to latch onto human cells and therefore plays a key role in driving infections.

But it is one mutation in particular -- known as E484K and present in the variants detected in South Africa and Brazil but not the one from Britain -- that has experts particularly worried about immunity "escape".

In a new study, which has not yet been peer reviewed, researchers in South Africa tested the variant found there -- called 501Y.V2 -- against blood plasma from recovered Covid-19 patients.

They found that it was resistant to neutralising antibodies built up from prior infection, but said more research was needed into the effectiveness of other parts of the immune response.

"Here we show that the 501Y.V2 lineage, which contains nine spike mutations and rapidly emerged in South Africa during the second half of 2020, is largely resistant to neutralising antibodies elicited by infection with previously circulating lineages," the authors said.

"This suggests that, despite the many people who have already been infected with SARS-CoV-2 globally and are presumed to have accumulated some level of immunity, new variants such as 501Y.V2 pose a significant re-infection risk."

The researchers added that this might also affect the use of convalescent plasma as a treatment for Covid-19. They also suggested it could have "implications" for vaccines developed based on immune responses to the virus's spike protein.

Trevor Bedford of the Fred Hutchinson Research Center tweeted that this variant could "spread more widely in the coming months".

If the results of the South African study are confirmed, he said it may be necessary to adapt the virus "strain" used in developing the vaccine by autumn of this year.

The findings are "not good news but it's not unexpected," said James Naismith, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, in comments to the Science Media Centre.

He said real world immune responses were more complex than those of the blood plasma neutralising antibodies.

"The vaccines do stimulate very strong responses, immunity is a sliding scale, it's not an on/off switch," he added.

- UK strain -

Two other preliminary studies posted online on Wednesday found that the antibodies from previously-infected patients are largely effective against the variant detected in Britain and that the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine appears to be guard against it as well.

Researchers said their early findings into the fast-spreading strain, known as B.1.1.7, suggested that the variant would not be able to evade the protective effect of current vaccines.

"Our results suggest that the majority of vaccine responses should be effective against the B.1.1.7 variant," concluded researchers from Britain and the Netherlands in one of the studies.

The authors tested the UK strain in the laboratory with antibody-rich blood plasma from 36 patients who had recovered from either mild or severe forms of Covid-19 and found most were able to neutralise the variant.

A separate study by researchers from BioNTech and Pfizer compared the neutralising effect of plasma from 16 participants in their vaccine clinical trials against the British variant and the original virus that emerged in Wuhan, China.

They concluded it was "unlikely" the B.1.1.7 variant could escape the immune protection of the vaccine.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210120-s-africa-virus-strain-poses-re-infection-risk-study

Beijing Locks Down 5 Neighborhoods After 2 Cases of U.K. Covid-19 Variant

Jan 21, 2021 06:11 AM By Deng Yiyun, Zhao Jinzhao, Zhou Dongxu and Denise Jia

Beijing imposed a partial lockdown Wednesday after about a dozen new Covid-19 cases were detected, including two cases of the more transmissible variant discovered last month in the United Kingdom.

Beijing became the fourth city to find the new variant after Shanghai reported the first imported such case in December. It shows that the U.K. coronavirus variant is spreading locally. The new strain has now been found in at least 60 countries and is thought by the World Health Organization to be 50% more infectious than the original.

The Chinese capital will screen all people entering Beijing from foreign countries since Dec. 10, said Xu Hejian, director of the information office at the Beijing municipal government. Now people entering Beijing from abroad are subject to a 14-day mandatory quarantine in hotels. After they complete the quarantine and test negative, they are required to undergo a seven-day quarantine at home or in hotels and another seven days of health monitoring.

As of the end of Tuesday, nine confirmed cases and one asymptomatic case were reported in the southern Daxing district of Beijing. The new round of infection is believed to have been imported from abroad, local health authorities said.

All 1.6 million residents of Daxing are barred from leave Beijing unless they have received special permission from authorities and tested negative for Covid-19 in the past three days, the district said. Residents of five Daxing neighborhoods where the cases were detected were ordered to stay home.

All kindergartens and middle schools in the city will be closed. One of the new confirmed cases Tuesday involved a nine-year-old student. The Daxing district has quarantined nearly 2,000 students, faculty members and their families related to the student’s school.

With Chinese New Year approaching in three weeks, large numbers of people plan to return to their home towns from the cities where they work. National health authorities Wednesday urged testing facilities, especially in rural areas, to speed up testing to ensure that people can go home with negative results within the past seven days.

Test results should be available within 12 hours after test facilities receive samples, according to a plan issued by the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council.

The authorities suggest that people stay in the places where they work and not take unnecessary trips during the Chinese New Year holiday, which starts Feb. 11. People returning to home towns are required to stay at home for 14 days of health monitoring with Covid-19 testing every seven days, according to the State Council plan.

During the Chinese New Year, unnecessary activities such as temple fairs, performances, exhibitions and sales promotions should be restricted. Necessary activities should be limited to 50 people or fewer, while weddings should be postponed and funerals simplified, the plan said.

Meanwhile, strict control measures in certain areas have also raised concerns. In the Gaocheng district of Shijiazhuang, one of three cities in Hebei province that are under lockdown, an old man was tied to a tree because lockdown enforcement personnel tried to stop him from entering a village to buy cigarettes. The Communist Party leader of the village was suspended and public security authorities launched an investigation into suspected illegal restriction of personal freedom.

Several cases involving rough control measures were reported recently. In one case, volunteer enforcement personnel stormed into the house of a family playing mahjong at home and damaged property.

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2021-01-21/beijing-locks-down-5-neighborhoods-after-2-cases-of-uk-covid-19-variant-101653442.html?utm_source=mailchimp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MustRead&originReferrer=MustRead

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Rt Covid-19

https://rt.live/

Covid19info.live

https://wuflu.live/

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus