Baltic Dry Index. 1366 Brent Crude 51.80
Spot Gold 1899
A safe, healthy, happy, and more prosperous 2021 to all.
Will 2021 be the year dollar supremacy dies? Will the Fed get forced into negative interest rates? Will the Biden-Harris socialist government get forced into Universal Basic Income for all?
What new self-inflicted calamity can Euroland think up for itself in 2021?
What if all the new SARS vaccines don’t prevent transmission?
Stick around for 2021. We are about to find out, and how!
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.
H. L. Mencken
More weakness seen as dollar posts worst year since 2017
Karen Brettell Thu., December 31, 2020, 1:01 a.m. GMT
NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar posted its biggest yearly loss since 2017 on Thursday, capping off a manic year that saw the currency serve as a safe haven in March when panic over the spread of COVID-19 in the United States peaked, before dropping on unprecedented Federal Reserve stimulus.
The greenback soared to a three-year high of 102.99 against a basket of currencies in March, before ending the year at 89.96, down 6.77% on the year and 12.65% from its March high.
An improving global economic outlook as COVID-19 vaccines are rolled out, rock-bottom U.S. interest rates and ongoing Fed bond purchases have dented the dollar's appeal.
Expectations of additional fiscal stimulus and rising fiscal and current account deficits are additional headwinds that are likely to hurt the U.S. currency over the coming year.
"I expect the dollar to depreciate further over the next few years as the Fed keeps rates at zero whilst maintaining its bloated balance sheet," Kevin Boscher, chief investment officer at asset manager Ravenscroft, told clients.
"The magnitude of the twin deficits dwarfs any other major economy," he said.
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Are pandemic relief checks making UBI inevitable?
Are pandemic relief checks making UBI inevitable?
Major crises can effect rapid changes in public opinion that otherwise would have required years or even decades to develop. Among the permanent opinion shifts of the COVID-19 pandemic, I expect to see a new — and perhaps even bipartisan — move toward universal basic income (UBI) or something like it, an evolution influenced by Americans' experience with pandemic relief checks, both the fact of them and the drawn-out political fights surrounding their passage.
A year ago, when Yang was promoting his dividend, he was a clear outlier in mainstream politics — maybe not entirely outside the Overton Window, but perched precariously on the sill. Surveys in 2017 and 2019 showed a consistent minority of 43 percent were supportive of the idea.
This year, the polling picture is revealingly messy. An August poll by Pew Research Center showed 45 percent support for UBI, statistically identical to the prior year's 43 percent. But Pew asked about "$1,000 per month for all adult citizens, whether or not they work," a phrasing I'm guessing raised concerns about mass UBI-induced indolence. A Hill-HarrisX poll published the same month described UBI as a way to "help Americans whose jobs are threatened by automation." With that framing, 55 percent were in favor of UBI. When UBI is linked to COVID-19, support moves even higher. A Data for Progress survey in April found 66 percent of Americans — including 52 percent of Republicans — were supportive of a $1,000 monthly payment for the duration of the pandemic.
More
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/are-pandemic-relief-checks-making-ubi-inevitable/ar-BB1cnpnM
David Rosenberg: Two big problems with the 'pent-up demand' everybody is counting on
Here's why the boost could be disappointing
Dec 31, 2020
You can’t go anywhere these days and not hear about the pent-up demand “V-shaped” recovery that awaits us once we all get vaccinated (or enough of us). This is premised on the assumption that we will all be going out to eat, fly and do everything that is fun and has been restricted, from movies to the theatre to the theme park to the casino and the nearest hotel.
But there are two issues here. First, these candidates for “pent-up demand release” come to the grand total of 8.5 per cent of total consumer spending. That’s all we’re talking about. The really big spending items in the services area are rents, utilities and health care, which make up nearly 40 per cent of the aggregate spending pie, and outlays here are actually up fractionally over the past year.
Of course, there are other areas of service-sector spending that took it on the chin — from housekeepers to day care to dental services — but they don’t trade on the major stock market exchanges.
The second issue is that spending growth in the goods sector actually benefited from the pandemic, and the trend this past year doubled the historical norm. Because of the pandemic, spending on goods in the United States rose US$180 billion more than would have been the case had the crisis never happened. No doubt, the plunge in cyclical services came to a larger US$325 billion. But that gap is $145 billion, or less than one per cent of consumer spending.
That’s what we are getting excited about? A one-per-cent lift?
When pundits talk about pent-up demand, what other assumptions are they making? Are they assuming that there will be no reversal or even levelling-off in the booming goods sector?
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Meanwhile, the EUSSR gets off to a bad start.
US imposes new tariffs on wines, other EU imports over Airbus-Boeing spat
Issued on: 31/12/2020 - 01:37
The United States announced Wednesday that it will impose additional tariffs on French and German products as part of a long-running dispute over subsidies for aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing.
The tariffs are on “aircraft manufacturing parts from France and Germany, certain non-sparkling wine from France and Germany, and certain cognac and other grape brandies from France and Germany,” which will be added to the list of products taxed since 2019, according to a statement from the US Trade Representative.
It said the move was in retaliation to tariffs imposed by the European Union which it considers unfair.
The decision is the latest twist in the 16-year trade battle over aircraft subsidies that turned increasingly sour under the protectionist instincts of US President Donald Trump, and comes despite hopes for a trade truce following Joe Biden’s election.
The EU was authorized this year by the World Trade Organization (WTO) to levy additional customs duties on American products.
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But Washington believes it has been penalized by the method of calculation chosen, which, according to the Trump administration, has led to an excessive amount of customs duties levied on American products.
“In implementing its tariffs... the EU used trade data from a period in which trade volumes had been drastically reduced due to the horrific effects on the global economy from the Covid-19 virus,” the USTR statement said.
“The result of this choice was that Europe imposed tariffs on substantially more products than would have been covered if it had utilized a normal period. Although the United States explained to the EU the distortive effect of its selected time period, the EU refused to change its approach,” the statement said.
As a result the US “is forced to change its reference period to the same period used by the European Union,” it continued.
The US also deplored an EU decision to exclude the UK from its calculations, which it argued unfairly increased the tariffs.
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Brexit: United Kingdom exits EU's orbit after 48 years
December 31, 2020
LONDON (Reuters) - The United Kingdom left the European Union’s orbit on Thursday, turning its back on a tempestuous 48-year liaison with the European project for an uncertain post-Brexit future in its most significant geopolitical shift since the loss of empire.
At 2300 GMT, the Brexit transition period - which preserved de-facto EU membership after the UK formally left the EU on Jan. 31 - expired.
The United Kingdom joined the precursor to the EU on Jan. 1, 1973.
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
H. L. Mencken
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
WHO chief scientist not confident vaccines prevent transmission
Even people who have received the vaccine could infect others, Dr. Soumya Swaminathan warns
Dec 29, 2020 • Last Updated 1 day ago
Officials at the World Health Organization warned that the COVID-19 pandemic that has ravaged every corner of the world “is not necessarily the big one” — and that the novel coronavirus may never truly go away.
What’s more, chief scientist Dr. Soumya Swaminathan said the WHO hasn’t yet determined whether the approved vaccines being administered in Canada, the U.S. and Europe are effective at preventing transmission, the Guardian reported.
“I don’t believe we have the evidence on any of the vaccines to be confident that it’s going to prevent people from actually getting the infection and therefore being able to pass it on,” Swaminathan said.
The top three vaccines — Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca — have been found in large trials to prevent recipients from becoming sick or seriously ill, but researchers are still trying to determine whether the vaccines prevent the virus from spreading from the recipient to others.
Even if people have received the vaccine, countries still need to assume that they should adhere to public health measures such as social distancing. If a vaccine recipient wants to travel, he should still be required to quarantine.
Moderna’s chief medical officer said last month he believes his company’s vaccine would prevent transmission of the virus but there is not yet “sufficient evidence” of that yet.
“When we start the deployment of this vaccine we will not have sufficient concrete data to prove that this vaccine reduces transmission,” Tal Zaks told Axios.
The first goal of the vaccine was meant to prevent symptomatic disease, severe disease and deaths, Swaminathan said.
Dr. Mark Ryan, the head of the WHO emergencies program, said after that first goal has been tackled, “we will deal with the moonshot of potentially being able to eliminate or eradicate the virus.”
Ryan said, “The existence of a vaccine, even at high efficacy, is no guarantee of eliminating or eradicating an infectious disease. That is a very high bar for us to be able to get over.”
More
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/who-chief-scientist-not-confident-vaccines-prevent-transmission
Pandemic Exits 2020 With Record Cases Across Globe: Virus Update
Bloomberg NewsUpdated on January 1, 2021, 8:00 AM GMT
One year after a mysterious pathogen first revealed itself in Wuhan, China, the Covid-19 pandemic enters 2021 with no signs of slowing down. Global daily deaths reached record highs this week, while U.S. infections approached 20 million, almost twice as many as second-worst hit country India.
Countries from Japan to South Africa ended 2020 with record daily cases. In the U.S., New York state and Florida shattered their previous case records, while Texas saw a new high for hospitalizations. The U.S. added 227,616 cases on Dec. 31. China and Brazil became the latest to report infections of the new, highly transmissible virus strain.
Vaccines remained the best hope for 2021. The World Health Organization issued an emergency-use designation for Pfizer Inc.’s shot, a move that could allow more countries to import and distribute the vaccine. Singapore tightened restrictions on travelers from South Africa.
Key Developments:
- Global Tracker: Cases pass 83.4 million; deaths exceed 1.8 million
- Vaccine Tracker: More than 10 million shots given worldwide
- Video: How Covid-19 rocked the globe
- Covid joins war, cancer as historic blight on Americans’ lives
- Why the U.K.’s mutated coronavirus is fanning worries: QuickTake
- China’s Xi lauds Covid-19 recovery in New Year’s Eve speech
- Faster-spreading strain affects young the most, study says
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He Was Hospitalized for Covid-19. Then Hospitalized Again. And Again.
The routine things in Chris Long’s life used to include biking 30 miles three times a week and taking courses toward a Ph.D. in eight-week sessions.
But since getting sick with the coronavirus in March, Mr. Long, 54, has fallen into a distressing new cycle — one that so far has landed him in the hospital seven times.
Periodically since his initial five-day hospitalization, his lungs begin filling again; he starts coughing uncontrollably and runs a low fever. Roughly 18 days later, he spews up greenish-yellow fluid, signaling yet another bout of pneumonia.
Soon, his oxygen levels drop and his heart rate accelerates to compensate, sending him to a hospital near his home in Clarkston, Mich., for several days, sometimes in intensive care.
“This will never go away,” he said, describing his worst fear. “This will be my going-forward for the foreseeable future.”
Nearly a year into the pandemic, it’s clear that recovering from Covid-19’s initial onslaught can be an arduous, uneven journey. Now, studies reveal that a significant subset of patients are having to return to hospitals, sometimes repeatedly, with complications triggered by the disease or by the body’s efforts to defeat the virus.
Even as vaccines give hope for stopping the spread of the virus, the surge of new cases portends repeated hospitalizations for more patients, taxing medical resources and turning some people’s path to recovery into a Sisyphean odyssey that upends their lives.
“It’s an urgent medical and public health question,” said Dr. Girish Nadkarni, an assistant professor of medicine at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York, who, with another assistant professor, Dr. Anuradha Lala, is studying readmissions of Covid-19 patients.
Data on rehospitalizations of coronavirus patients are incomplete, but early studies suggest that in the United States alone, tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands could ultimately return to the hospital.
A study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of 106,543 coronavirus patients initially hospitalized between March and July found that one in 11 was readmitted within two months of being discharged, with 1.6 percent of patients readmitted more than once.
In another study of 1,775 coronavirus patients discharged from 132 V.A. hospitals in the pandemic’s early months, nearly a fifth were rehospitalized within 60 days. More than 22 percent of them needed intensive care, and 7 percent required ventilators.
And in a report on 1,250 patients discharged from 38 Michigan hospitals from mid-March to July, 15 percent were rehospitalized within 60 days.
More
https://dnyuz.com/2020/12/30/he-was-hospitalized-for-covid-19-then-hospitalized-again-and-again/
Next, some very useful vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
FDA information. https://www.fda.gov/media/139638/download
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Covid19info.live
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Finally, all you need to know about wind turbines, but were afraid to ask.
How Big Can Wind Turbines Get? (Approx. 14 mins.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wr7QZ364jPY
The truth about wind turbines - how bad are they? (Approx. 11 mins.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsswrLKlinU
Wind Turbine Blades Can’t Be Recycled, So They’re Piling Up in Landfills
Companies are searching for ways to deal with the tens of thousands of blades that have reached the end of their lives.
By Chris Martin
Updated on
This weekend’s musical masterpiece from Dresden’s long forgotten J. D, Heinichen. (Approx. 4 mins.)
J.D. HEINICHEN: «Flavio Crispo» [Act II: Sinfonia], Il Gusto Barocco
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrROrVrYjDM
This weekend’s chess masterclass. Crushing the world champion. (Approx. 12 mins.)
Dubov Takes Carlsen into a DEEP DARK FOREST || Airthings Masters (2020)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYcgrFlXfVc
Democracy is the art and science of running the circus from the monkey cage.
H. L. Mencken
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