Impeachment 2.0 Markets Yawn. If At First...

 Baltic Dry Index. 1856 +07 Brent Crude 55.92

Spot Gold 1845

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 14/01/21 World 92,778,983

Deaths 1,986,903

If at first you don’t succeed, try, try, try again.

Speaker Pelosi, with apologies.

The big political news is President Trump getting in another Presidential first. A second impeachment, after last week’s Presidential first of whipping up a mob and setting them on the Capitol. Is there no stopping this man? Will he score another Presidential first next week with a Presidential self pardon?

After leaving office at noon next Wednesday Washington time, more Presidential firsts loom in quick succession, including a possible real-estate tax fraud investigation in New York, multiple lawsuits, including a test of any self pardon, not to mention the real biggie, the first US President in history to end up serving time.

I wonder what they make of it in Beijing, Moscow, Minsk and Tehran?

In the markets, it was all very much yesterday’s stale bread. Lacking the visual excitement of Last week's weirdos storming the Capitol.

And on to today’s exciting developments.  President-elect Biden is about to announce how much free cash each American can expect. A lot, according to Clinton News Network CNN.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to tell the world too, just how many US bonds he intends to buy to calm markets. Estimates range from “a lot” to "all of them.”

All in all, this looks like a good time to begin scale buying of physical gold and silver again.

Bonds dip, Nikkei charges higher as stimulus hopes stoke gains

January 14, 2021  12:55 AM  By Tom Westbrook, Chibuike Oguh

SINGAPORE/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bonds slipped, Japanese stocks jumped to a three-decade high and other Asian equities loitered near record peaks on Thursday as investors focused on U.S. stimulus prospects and extended bets on global recovery and growth.

Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.4% to its highest point since August 1990. It is up more than 8% in three weeks. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was steady and just a whisker short of Monday’s all-time high. [.T]

U.S. Treasuries, which had climbed overnight after some reassurances that the U.S. Federal Reserve would keep buying bonds, were sold again after CNN reported that President-elect Joe Biden is mulling a stimulus package as large as $2 trillion. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries, which rises when prices fall, lifted 1.7 basis points in Asia. [US/]

Ten-year Treasury yields are up more than 19 basis points this year as investors bet on Biden’s borrow-and-spend agenda being able to clear a Democrat-controlled Congress - and as worry creeps in about when the Fed’s support might taper off.

S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% and EuroSTOXX 50 futures rose 0.3%. “The number one question for global markets and equities will be when will the Fed start tapering,” said Frank Benzimra, head of Asia equity strategy at Societe Generale in Hong Kong. “This is where you can get some concern... but at the moment it is something that is a bit premature. We are in a context where you have growth accelerating, economic indicators are good, and in the U.S. the increased probability of fiscal stimulus.”

Currency markets are taking a little more of a wait-and-see approach, as investors are short dollars and wondering whether the eventual tapering might limit the greenback’s decline.[FRX/]

The dollar rose 0.2% to 104.12 yen with U.S. yields after the CNN report, which cited one lawmaker in contact with Biden’s advisers as its source. Biden is due to announce his economic plans on Thursday.

Traders are also anxious to hear from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday, where any hint of an eventual tapering could send yields surging once more.

---- In Washington, the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives impeached President Donald Trump for a second time. But markets have been more focused on his attacks on Chinese companies.

Trump bolstered a ban on U.S. investments in Chinese companies deemed to be linked with the military by clarifying late on Wednesday that American investors cannot own them after November 2021.

More

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/bonds-dip-nikkei-charges-higher-as-stimulus-hopes-stoke-gains-idUSKBN29J03U

U.S. House impeaches Trump for a second time; 10 Republicans vote yes

January 13, 2021 4:46 PM  By David Morgan, Richard Cowan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Donald Trump on Wednesday became the first president in U.S. history to be impeached twice, as 10 of his fellow Republicans joined Democrats in the House of Representatives to charge him with inciting an insurrection in last week’s violent rampage in the Capitol.

The vote in the Democratic-controlled House was 232-197 following the deadly assault on American democracy, although it appeared unlikely the swift impeachment would lead to Trump’s ouster before his four-year term ends and Democratic President-elect Joe Biden is inaugurated on Jan. 20.

The Senate’s Republican majority leader, Mitch McConnell, rejected Democratic calls for a quick impeachment trial, saying there was no way to conclude it before Trump leaves office. But even if he has left the White House, a Senate conviction of Trump could lead to a vote on banning him from running for office again.

Biden said it was important that a Senate impeachment trial in the early days of his term not delay work on his legislative priorities, including Cabinet confirmations, and urged Senate leaders to find a way to do both at the same time.

The House passed a single article of impeachment - a formal charge - accusing Trump of “incitement of insurrection,” focused on an incendiary speech he delivered a week earlier to thousands of supporters shortly before the pro-Trump mob rampaged through the Capitol.

The mob disrupted the formal certification of Biden’s victory over Trump in the Nov. 3 election, sent lawmakers into hiding and left five people dead, including a police officer.

During his speech, Trump repeated false claims that the election was fraudulent and exhorted supporters to march on the Capitol, telling them to “stop the steal,” “show strength,” “fight much harder” and use “very different rules.”

In a video statement released after the House’s action on Wednesday, Trump did not mention the impeachment vote and took no responsibility for his remarks to supporters last week, but condemned the violence.

More

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump/as-house-deliberates-senate-republicans-mull-starting-trump-impeachment-trial-friday-idUSKBN29I190

Next, the difference between cryptocurrency and gold.

David Rosenberg: Why comparisons between bitcoin and gold are absurd

No one ever talks about the risk that gold could go to zero — because it can’t

Jan 13, 2021  

By David Rosenberg and Ellen Cooper

It has to be stressed that in the midst of the market mania in which we find ourselves, the cult-like fervour behind cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin has become untethered.

Bitcoin has indeed proven itself as a more enduring asset than many had predicted after the first few bubbles burst in 2013 and 2018, and there have been several high-profile institutional investors expressing interest in recent months. But we continue to believe that the comparisons between the digital currency and gold are absurd.

It’s understandable that alternative assets would come into vogue in the current macro environment, where central banks, and the U.S. Federal Reserve in particular, have probed the outer limits of monetary policy and expanded their balance sheets more so than at any other time, including in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis.

And with trust in the U.S. government deteriorating at the same time that gobs of stimulus are being released into the economy, investors are wise to be looking for a store of value as a hedge against uncertainty, currency depreciation and inflation risks (though we don’t see meaningful inflation emerging any time soon).

But in our estimation, these are arguments for holding a diversified portfolio that includes hard assets such as gold, things that will keep their value in the face of these ongoing risks. But bitcoin is not guaranteed to hold value.

As we can see from the massive 26 per cent slide on Sunday and Monday (the largest two-day correction since March), even if bitcoin is able to maintain a higher level over time as more investors pile in, the volatility is still too extreme and the value too susceptible to manipulation for it to be a real safe-haven asset. Outside of the Hodl-cult (essentially those who pledge to buy bitcoin and hold indefinitely), many of those who invest in the digital currency do so because of its volatility, which makes it an attractive get-rich-quick scheme for speculators.

Comparisons to gold in this regard are baseless. No one ever talks about the risk that gold could go to zero because it simply can’t — there is a floor in its price, because it has physical properties that make it useful even outside of its primary function as a safe-haven asset. But bitcoin, which has marginal intrinsic value, relies on the faith of its holders that it is worth more than nothing and that the technology is sound.

More

https://financialpost.com/investing/david-rosenberg-why-comparisons-between-bitcoin-and-gold-are-absurd

Finally, Christmas comes early in January this year. Plenty free money for all. But since there’s no such thing on planet earth as a “free lunch,” someone somewhere is going to get stuck with the bill.

Democrats plan a spending blowout, but hurdles remain

They have hinted that tax increases will be delayed until later this year at the earliest, helping buoy investor optimism

By Peter Cohn  Posted January 11, 2021 at 9:52am

ANALYSIS — Georgia Democrats’ stunning victories in two Senate runoffs immediately reset this year’s policymaking landscape, with higher stock prices, interest rates and inflation expectations signaling anticipation of a spending blowout.

Top Democrats are prepping trillions of dollars more to goose disposable income and help the unemployed; relieve state and local government budgets; hypercharge the vaccine rollout; build out clean energy, housing, broadband, water and transportation infrastructure; subsidize paid leave and child care; and more.

Meanwhile, Democrats have hinted that tax increases will be delayed until later this year at the earliest, helping buoy investor optimism even amid a violent mob riot at the Capitol that left five people dead.

“[President-elect] Joe Biden and his team are not going to raise taxes on anyone until the economy is fully recovered, or at least more stable,” said Russ Sullivan, a former staff director for Senate Finance Committee Democrats who worked closely with the Obama-Biden administration on stimulus, health care and tax legislation.

Sullivan, who leads the tax policy group at law firm Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, also doesn’t think tax increases will be retroactive to the start of the year. “Never in my 18 years on the Hill did we do a retroactive tax increase,” he said.

Biden said Friday that he wants swift action on an economic aid package he’ll unveil on Jan. 14, including additional $1,400-per-person checks on top of the $600 that started going out last week. The price tag for this initial request alone, encompassing everything from funds for schools to reopen safely to financial aid for renters behind on their payments, will be “in the trillions of dollars,” Biden said.

Even if all 48 Democrats and two independents who caucus with them remained united, which isn’t a sure thing, such a package would require 10 Republican votes. But shoveling trillions of dollars more out the door right after $900 billion last month would be a tough sell for the GOP.

Invoking the “nuclear option” to eliminate the 60-vote threshold to end debate seems unlikely. That leaves the budget reconciliation process to pass big-ticket Democratic priorities with a simple majority.

They can use the powerful tool twice this year because Congress never adopted a fiscal 2021 budget blueprint last year, leaving it available until the end of September. That’s the playbook Republicans used in 2017 first for their failed effort to repeal the 2010 health care law and then their successful tax code overhaul. But it’s a slower and far more cumbersome process.

More

https://www.rollcall.com/2021/01/11/democrats-plan-a-spending-blowout-but-hurdles-remain/

 

Covid-19 Corner                       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

COVID-19 infection gives some immunity for at least five months, UK study finds

January 14, 2021  12:20 AM  By Kate Kelland

LONDON (Reuters) - People who have had COVID-19 are highly likely to have immunity to it for at least five months but there is evidence that those with antibodies may still be able to carry and spread the virus, a UK study of healthcare workers has found.

Preliminary findings by scientists at Public Health England (PHE) showed that reinfections in people who have COVID-19 antibodies from a past infection are rare - with only 44 cases found among 6,614 previously infected people in the study.

But experts cautioned that the findings mean people who contracted the disease in the first wave of the pandemic in the early months of 2020 may now be vulnerable to catching it again.

They also warned that people with so-called “natural immunity” - acquired through having had the infection - may still be able carry the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in their nose and throat, and could unwittingly pass it on.

“We now know that most of those who have had the virus, and developed antibodies, are protected from reinfection, but this is not total and we do not yet know how long protection lasts,” said Susan Hopkins, senior medical adviser at PHE and co-leader of the study, whose findings were published on Thursday.

“This means even if you believe you already had the disease and are protected, you can be reassured it is highly unlikely you will develop severe infections. But there is still a risk you could acquire an infection and transmit (it) to others.”

A statement on the study said its findings did not address antibody or other immune responses to vaccines now being rolled out against COVID-19, or on how effective vaccines would be. Vaccine responses will be considered later this year, it said.

The research, known as the SIREN study, involves tens of thousands of healthcare workers in Britain who have been tested regularly since June for new COVID-19 infections as well as for the presence of antibodies.

Between June 18 and Nov. 24 scientists detected 44 potential reinfections - two “probable” and 42 “possible” - out of 6,614 participants who had tested positive for antibodies. This represents an 83% rate of protection from reinfection, they said.

More

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-immunity/covid-19-infection-gives-some-immunity-for-at-least-five-months-uk-study-finds-idUSKBN29J01P

Japan widens virus emergency to 7 more areas as cases surge

By MARI YAMAGUCHI  13 January, 2021

TOKYO (AP) — Japan expanded a coronavirus state of emergency to seven more prefectures Wednesday, affecting more than half the population amid a surge in infections across the country.

Prime Minister Yoshide Suga also said Japan will suspend fast-track entry exceptions for business visitors or others with residency permits, fully banning foreign visitors while the state of emergency is in place.

Suga’s announcement comes less than a week after he declared a state of emergency for Tokyo and three nearby prefectures. The new declaration, which adds seven other prefectures in western and central Japan, takes effect Thursday and lasts until Feb. 7.

“The severe situation is continuing, but these measures are indispensable in turning the tide for the better,” Suga said at a news conference, bowing as he sought understanding from the public.

He said he put the seven prefectures in urban areas under the state of emergency to prevent infections from spilling over into smaller cities where medical systems are more vulnerable.

The government is asking bars and restaurants in Osaka, Kyoto, Hyogo, Fukuoka, Aichi, Gifu and Tochigi prefectures to close by 8 p.m., employers to have 70% of their staff work from home and residents in the affected areas avoid going out for nonessential purposes.

Suga has been criticized as being to slow to act as the country’s reported coronavirus infections and deaths roughly doubled over the past month to about 300,000 and 4,100 respectively. Both states of emergency were declared only after local leaders pleaded with him to do so.

Experts have warned that even the emergency declarations, which are nonbinding and largely rely on voluntary cooperation, may be insufficient to significantly slow the infections.

Unlike an earlier seven-week emergency Japan had in April and May last year, schools, gyms, theaters and shops will stay open.

More

https://apnews.com/article/japan-asia-pacific-coronavirus-pandemic-tokyo-16991438f9a20e2e8599b4ffde47292f

New insights into how COVID-19 can impact the brain and CNS

By Rich Haridy  January 12, 2021

A robust new study led by scientists from Yale School of Medicine has comprehensively demonstrated how SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19, can infect the brain and central nervous system (CNS). The study validates a growing body of observational research attributing neurological issues to COVID-19.

As 2020 progressed and we learned more about the effects of COVID-19, many clinicians began to suggest this novel virus causes more than just respiratory disease. The temporary loss of one’s sense of smell was an early unexpected sign the virus could be affecting parts of the brain. Unlike a common cold, which causes similar symptoms due to simple sinus congestion, COVID-19 seemed to be disrupting this sense in a different way.

From increasing cases of stroke, to memory loss and other cognitive complaints, a number of neurological concerns appeared to suggest the virus was somehow getting into the brain, but how it was doing that wasn’t particularly clear. Studying the effects of SARS-CoV-2 on the brain presented researchers with a challenge. Beyond post-mortem autopsies it is virtually impossible to sample brain tissue directly, so it is difficult to directly investigate whether the virus was explicitly infecting the brain.

The new Yale-led research utilized a variety of methods to investigate how the virus could infect brain cells. Lab-grown brain cell models called brain organoids, detailed SARS-CoV-2 mouse models, and post-mortem human brain tissue were all aspects of the new study which ultimately discovered the novel coronavirus can indeed directly infect brain cells.

Our study clearly demonstrates that neurons can become a target of SARS-CoV-2 infection, with devastating consequences of localized ischemia in the brain and cell death," says co-senior author Kaya Bilguvar. "Our results suggest that neurologic symptoms associated with COVID-19 may be related to these consequences, and may help guide rational approaches to the treatment of COVID-19 patients with neuronal disorders."

The new study offers plausible evidence demonstrating SARS-CoV-2 can infect the brain and central nervous system (CNS), but due to a lack of robust clinical research it is still unclear what those neurological effects of COVID-19 are in the long-term. A recently published review article surveyed more than a century of viral infections and suggests there is a precedent for flu-like viruses leading to neurological complications.

"Since the flu pandemic of 1917 and 1918, many of the flulike diseases have been associated with brain disorders," explains lead author on the review, Gabriel A. de Erausquin. "Those respiratory viruses included H1N1 and SARS-CoV. The SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, is also known to impact the brain and nervous system."

The review lays the foundation for a new cohort study dedicated to investigating the long-term impacts of SARS-CoV-2 on the brain. The study aims to follow a large volume of COVID-19 patients, with evaluation points at six, nine, and 18 months post hospital discharge.

“Scientific leaders, including the Alzheimer's Association and representatives from more than 30 countries – with technical guidance from the World Health Organization – have formed an international, multidisciplinary consortium to collect and evaluate the short‐ and long‐term consequences of SARS‐CoV‐2 on the CNS,” the new review article explains. “This program of studies aims to better understand the long‐term consequences that may impact the brain, cognition, and functioning – including the underlying biology that may contribute to AD [Alzheimer’s disease] and other dementias.”

A significant volume of questions still remain: How does SARS-CoV-2 get into the brain? What makes a person more susceptible to neurological infection? Are there long-term neurological effects from mild COVID-19 cases? Does SARS-CoV-2 infection increase one’s chances of developing neurodegenerative conditions such as Parkinson’s or Alzheimer’s?

Akiko Iwasaki, an author on the new Yale study, says future work will need to answer all these questions as we begin to grapple with the long-term after-effects of the pandemic. And this Yale study, demonstrating how the virus can infect brain cells, is the first step on the path to finding answers.

"Understanding the full extent of viral invasion is crucial to treating patients, as we begin to try to figure out the long-term consequences of COVID-19, many of which are predicted to involve the central nervous system," says Iwasaki.

The new Yale study was published in the Journal of Experimental Medicine.

https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/coronavirus-infect-damage-brain-neurological-cns-yale/

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Rt Covid-19

https://rt.live/

Covid19info.live 

https://wuflu.live/

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Nanosheet-based electronics could be one drop away

Date:  January 12, 2021

Source:  Nagoya University

Summary:  A surprisingly simple method improves 'drop casting' fabrication of tiled nanosheets that could be used in next-generation electronic devices. All you need is a pipette and a hotplate.

Scientists at Japan's Nagoya University and the National Institute for Materials Science have found that a simple one-drop approach is cheaper and faster for tiling functional nanosheets together in a single layer. If the process, described in the journal ACS Nano, can be scaled up, it could advance development of next-generation oxide electronics.

"Drop casting is one of the most versatile and cost-effective methods for depositing nanomaterials on a solid surface," says Nagoya University materials scientist Minoru Osada, the study's corresponding author. "But it has serious drawbacks, one being the so-called coffee-ring effect: a pattern left by particles once the liquid they are in evaporates. We found, to our great surprise, that controlled convection by a pipette and a hotplate causes uniform deposition rather than the ring-like pattern, suggesting a new possibility for drop casting."

The process Osada describes is surprisingly simple, especially when compared to currently available tiling techniques, which can be costly, time-consuming, and wasteful. The scientists found that dropping a solution containing 2D nanosheets with a simple pipette onto a substrate heated on a hotplate to a temperature of about 100°C, followed by removal of the solution, causes the nanosheets to come together in about 30 seconds to form a tile-like layer.

Analyses showed that the nanosheets were uniformly distributed over the substrate's surface, with limited gaps. This is probably a result of surface tension driving how particles disperse, and the shape of the deposited droplet changing as the solution evaporates.

The scientists used the process to deposit particle solutions of titanium dioxide, calcium niobate, ruthenium oxide, and graphene oxide. They also tried different sizes and shapes of a variety of substrates, including silicon, silicon dioxide, quartz glass, and polyethylene terephthalate (PET). They found they could control the surface tension and evaporation rate of the solution by adding a small amount of ethanol.

Furthermore, the team successfully used this process to deposit multiple layers of tiled nanosheets, fabricating functional nanocoatings with various features: conducting, semiconducting, insulating, magnetic and photochromic.

"We expect that our solution-based process using 2D nanosheets will have a great impact on environmentally benign manufacturing and oxide electronics," says Osada. This could lead to next-generation transparent and flexible electronics, optoelectronics, magnetoelectronics, and power harvesting devices.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/01/210112110137.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily%2Fmatter_energy%2Fgraphene+%28Graphene+News+--+ScienceDaily%29

“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

Speaker Pelosi, with apologies.