Saturday 23 January 2021

Special Update 23/01/2021 Covid Variant Worse!

Baltic Dry Index. 1837 +09  Brent Crude 55.41

Spot Gold 1856

Covid-19 cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Covid-19 cases 25/01/21 World 98,750,103

Deaths 2,116,438

If you can't convince them, confuse them.

President Harry S Truman.

The real news this weekend is in the Covid-19 section where there’s good news and sadly bad news.

I never did give anybody hell. I just told the truth and they thought it was hell.

President Harry S Truman.

Covid-19 Corner             

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

U.K. Warns More Deadly Strain Makes Lifting Lockdown Harder

By Joe Mayes and Tim Ross

Updated on January 22, 2021, 11:20 PM GMT

·        

Johnson said rates of infection were still ‘too high’

·         Prime minister and medical advisers put focus on compliance

The U.K.’s new strain of coronavirus may be more deadly than first thought, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said, as he warned again that the country faces a long wait before it can emerge from lockdown.

Speaking at a news conference Friday in London, the premier said new evidence had led the government to revise its initial view that the variant was more contagious but not more dangerous. It may be 30% more deadly than the original strain - or more, a government analysis found.

“In addition to spreading more quickly, it also now appears that there is some evidence that the new variant – the variant that was first identified in London and the South East – may be associated with a higher degree of mortality,” Johnson said from 10 Downing Street, flanked by his top medical advisers.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaks during a coronavirus press conference at 10 Downing Street in London on Jan. 22.

The government said that on average, for 1,000 men in their 60s, 13 to 14 would die if they contracted the new variant, compared to 10 for the initial strain.

----There was a glimmer of light for the U.K. in government data on Friday suggesting that the second wave of the pandemic had passed its peak.

But Johnson and his scientific advisers were clear that the rates of hospitalizations, deaths and infections remain far too high and will not allow the restrictions that have shuttered businesses to be lifted any time soon.

More Vigilance

Added to that was the warning over the increased potency of the new variant known as B.1.1.7, which was first identified in the U.K. last year and has since spread around the world.

Read more: Why New Virus Strains Are So Worrisome: QuickTake

Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, said the new strain was not only more easy to transmit but also linked to higher mortality rates than the earlier variants in circulation in Britain.

“It’s largely the impact of this new variant that means the NHS is under such intense pressure,” Johnson said. “It’s more important than ever that we all remain vigilant and follow the rules.” There are 38,562 Covid patients in hospitals, which is 78% higher than during the first peak last April, he said.

While an initial analysis by Public Health England experts found the variant wasn’t linked to more hospitalizations or deaths, independent reviews by outside experts generated consistent, worrisome results, according to a government report.

The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Imperial College London found mortality was 29% to 35% higher in those infected with the variant of concern, or VOC, compared with those carrying the original strain of the virus. The University of Exeter concluded the risk was 91% higher, while a repeat analysis from Public Health England found 65% higher mortality.

More

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-22/u-k-says-new-variant-may-be-linked-to-higher-death-rates?cmpid=BBD012221_BIZ&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=210122&utm_campaign=bloombergdaily

U.K. Says Covid-19 May No Longer Be Spreading Exponentially

By Tim Ross and Alex Morales

Updated on January 22, 2021, 4:37 PM GMT

The coronavirus pandemic may no longer be spreading exponentially in the U.K., according to government data suggesting the country’s third lockdown is working.

The official estimate of the “R rate” -- which measures how many people each infected person passes the virus on to -- fell to between 0.8 and 1, the results released on Friday showed. When R is above 1 the virus spreads exponentially. Last week, the R rate was estimated to be between 1.2 and 1.3.

The government said the case rates remain “dangerously high” and urged the public to keep to lockdown rules.

More

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-22/u-k-says-coronavirus-may-no-longer-be-spreading-exponentially

What to Know About Vaccine-Linked Deaths, Allergies

By John Lauerman and Jason Gale

Updated on January 22, 2021, 10:18 PM GMT

Like all new drugs, the vaccines that have been authorized to protect against Covid-19 come with some safety concerns and side effects. Many people who’ve received the first two Western shots deployed, one from Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE, and another from Moderna Inc., have experienced fever, headache and pain at the site of the injection. These side effects generally disappear quickly. More worrisome, a small number of vaccine recipients have had a serious, but treatable, allergic reaction, called anaphylaxis. Norway reported deaths among elderly people with serious underlying health conditions following administration of the Pfizer-BioNTech shot, but a review by the World Health Organization found no evidence of a connection to the vaccine.

1. What’s known about the deaths?

Thirty-three were reported in mid-January among some 42,000 people given the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in Norway, where authorities have prioritized the immunization of nursing-home residents. Those who died were all in the “75 years +” bracket and they included terminally ill patients anticipated to have only weeks or months to live. After a review, the WHO Global Advisory Committee on Vaccine Safety said that the fatalities “are in line with the expected, all-cause mortality rates and causes of death in the sub-population of frail, elderly individuals.” The committee concluded that the risk-benefit balance of the vaccine “remains favorable in the elderly.”

2. Have there been deaths elsewhere?

In Germany, where more than 800,000 people have received their first of two doses of the the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, the Paul Ehrlich Institute has investigated at least seven cases of elderly people dying shortly after vaccination. In its report, it said the deaths were probably due to the patients’ underlying diseases including carcinomas, kidney deficiencies and Alzheimer’s, not the inoculation. Millions of doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine have been administered in the U.S., U.K. and some other countries with no deaths reported due to the vaccine, Abrar Chughtai, a lecturer in the School of Public Health and Community Medicine at the University of New South Wales, told the Australian Science Media Centre.

More

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/what-to-know-about-vaccine-related-deaths-allergies-quicktake?in_source=postr_story_3

Lilly's neutralizing antibody bamlanivimab (LY-CoV555) prevented COVID-19 at nursing homes in the BLAZE-2 trial, reducing risk by up to 80 percent for residents

January 21, 2021

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INDIANAPOLIS, Jan. 21, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Bamlanivimab (LY-CoV555) significantly reduced the risk of contracting symptomatic COVID-19 among residents and staff of long-term care facilities, Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) announced. The Phase 3 BLAZE-2 COVID-19 prevention trial – conducted in partnership with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the COVID-19 Prevention Network (CoVPN) – enrolled residents and staff at skilled nursing and assisted living facilities, commonly referred to as nursing homes, across the U.S.

The 965 participants who tested negative for the SARS-CoV-2 virus at baseline (299 residents and 666 staff) were included in the analysis of primary and key secondary endpoints for assessing prevention, while the 132 participants (41 residents and 91 staff) who tested positive for the virus at baseline were included in exploratory analyses for assessing treatment, adding to the growing body of evidence for treatment with bamlanivimab. All participants were randomized to receive either 4,200 mg of bamlanivimab or placebo.

After all participants reached 8 weeks of follow-up, there was a significantly lower frequency of symptomatic COVID-19 (the primary endpoint) in the bamlanivimab treatment arm versus placebo (odds ratio 0.43, p=0.00021). Results for all key secondary endpoints also reached statistical significance in both the overall and resident populations.

For the pre-specified subgroup of nursing home residents, there was also a significantly lower frequency of symptomatic COVID-19 in those treated with bamlanivimab versus placebo in this important population (odds ratio 0.20; p=0.00026). These results suggest that residents randomized to bamlanivimab have up to an 80 percent lower risk of contracting COVID-19 versus residents in the same facility randomized to placebo.

Results from exploratory analyses of viral load in the treatment group were consistent with previously disclosed data from BLAZE-1 evaluating bamlanivimab as an outpatient treatment for recently diagnosed COVID-19.

Among the 299 residents in the prevention group, there were 4 deaths attributed to COVID-19 at the time of death, and all occurred in the placebo arm. There were no COVID-19 attributed deaths in the bamlanivimab arm. Among the 41 residents in the treatment group, there were 4 deaths, and all occurred in the placebo arm with none in the bamlanivimab arm. Over the entire trial, there were a total of 16 deaths reported, including deaths not related to COVID-19, and all deaths were residents (11 deaths in placebo arm and 5 in bamlanivimab arm).

"We are exceptionally pleased with these positive results, which showed bamlanivimab was able to help prevent COVID-19, substantially reducing symptomatic disease among nursing home residents, some of the most vulnerable members of our society," said Daniel Skovronsky, M.D., Ph.D., Lilly's chief scientific officer and president of Lilly Research Laboratories. "These data provide important additional clinical evidence regarding the use of bamlanivimab to fight COVID-19 and strengthen our conviction that monoclonal antibodies such as bamlanivimab can play a critical role in turning the tide of this pandemic. We're glad bamlanivimab is already available as a treatment for patients at high risk for progressing to severe COVID-19 illness or hospitalization, including those in nursing homes, and look forward to working with regulators to explore expanding the emergency use authorization to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in these facilities."

An independent data and safety monitoring board oversaw the BLAZE-2 trial. In the trial, the safety profile of bamlanivimab was consistent with observations from the Phase 1 and Phase 2 trials. Serious adverse events were reported at a similar frequency in the bamlanivimab and placebo groups. Across multiple clinical trials, Lilly now has collected safety and efficacy data in more than 4,000 patients treated with bamlanivimab, either alone or administered together with another antibody.

"The results of this innovative study further support the belief that bamlanivimab – and potentially other monoclonal antibodies – can reduce symptoms and may even prevent COVID-19," said Myron S. Cohen, M.D., CoVPN co-principal investigator and director of the Institute for Global Health and Infectious Diseases at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. "The antiviral activity seen with bamlanivimab treatment emphasizes the importance of early intervention to help counter the devastating impact the virus has had in this vulnerable population and other high-risk patients."

BLAZE-2 is a first-of-its-kind COVID-19 trial designed to evaluate this vulnerable population by addressing the challenging aspects of running a clinical trial in long-term care facilities, which normally do not conduct clinical trials. The study is sponsored by Lilly and conducted in partnership with NIAID, part of the NIH, along with the CoVPN and numerous long-term care facility networks across the country. BLAZE-2 is ongoing as an open-label trial evaluating bamlanivimab alone or administered together with another antibody as a treatment for high-risk individuals (residents and staff) diagnosed with COVID-19 at these long-term care facilities. The full results from BLAZE-2 will be presented at a future medical congress and submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed clinical journal.

Bamlanivimab is authorized for emergency use by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 in high-risk patients. For more information about the use of bamlanivimab, contact Lilly's 24-hour support line at 1-855-LillyC19 (1-855-545-5921). Patients and physicians can visit covid.infusioncenter.org or the HHS Therapeutics Distribution locator to find a potential treatment location near you. Visit combatcovid.hhs.gov to find out more about antibody therapy.

Important Information about bamlanivimab  
Bamlanivimab has not been approved by the FDA for any use.  It is not known if bamlanivimab is safe and effective for the treatment of COVID-19. 

Bamlanivimab is authorized under an Emergency Use Authorization only for the duration of the declaration that circumstances exist justifying the authorization of the emergency use of bamlanivimab under Section 564(b)(1) of the Act, 21 U.S.C § 360bbb-3(b)(1), unless the authorization is terminated or revoked sooner.

Healthcare providers should review the Fact Sheet for information on the authorized use of bamlanivimab and mandatory requirements of the EUA. Please see the FDA Letter of Authorization, Fact Sheet for Healthcare Providers, and Fact Sheet for Patients, Parents, and Caregivers (English) (Spanish).

Authorized Use and Important Safety Information
Bamlanivimab 700 mg injection is authorized for use under EUA for treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 in adults and pediatric patients (12 years of age and older weighing at least 40 kg) with positive results of direct SARS-CoV-2 viral testing, and who are at high risk for progressing to severe COVID-19 and/or hospitalization.

Limitations of Authorized Use

  • Bamlanivimab is not authorized for use in patients:
    • who are hospitalized due to COVID-19, OR
    • who require oxygen therapy due to COVID-19, OR
    • who require an increase in baseline oxygen flow rate due to COVID-19 in those on chronic oxygen therapy due to underlying non-COVID-19 related comorbidity.
  • Benefit of treatment with bamlanivimab has not been observed in patients hospitalized due to COVID-19. Monoclonal antibodies, such as bamlanivimab, may be associated with worse clinical outcomes when administered to hospitalized patients requiring high flow oxygen or mechanical ventilation with COVID-19.

Important Safety Information
There are limited clinical data available for bamlanivimab. Serious and unexpected adverse events may occur that have not been previously reported with bamlanivimab use.

More

https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lillys-neutralizing-antibody-bamlanivimab-ly-cov555-prevented

Next, some very useful vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccineshttps://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Stanford Websitehttps://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132

FDA informationhttps://www.fda.gov/media/139638/download

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some more useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Rt Covid-19

https://rt.live/

Covid19info.live

https://wuflu.live/

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.

New graphene nanochannel water filters

Date:  January 21, 2021

Source:  Brown University

Summary:  Researchers have shown that tiny channels between graphene sheets can be aligned in a way that makes them ideal for water filtration.

When sheets of two-dimensional nanomaterials like graphene are stacked on top of each other, tiny gaps form between the sheets that have a wide variety of potential uses. In research published in the journal Nature Communications, a team of Brown University researchers has found a way to orient those gaps, called nanochannels, in a way that makes them more useful for filtering water and other liquids of nanoscale contaminants.

"In the last decade, a whole field has sprung up to study these spaces that form between 2-D nanomaterials," said Robert Hurt, a professor in Brown's School of Engineering and coauthor of the research. "You can grow things in there, you can store things in there, and there's this emerging field of nanofluidics where you're using those channels to filter out some molecules while letting others go through."

There's a problem, however, with using these nanochannels for filtration, and it has to do with the way those channels are oriented. Like a notebook made from stacked sheets of paper, graphene stacks are thin in the vertical direction compared to their horizontal length and width. That means that the channels between the sheets are likewise oriented horizontally. That's not ideal for filtration, because liquid has to travel a relatively long way to get from one end of a channel to the other. It would be better if the channels were perpendicular to the orientation of the sheets. In that case, liquid would only need to traverse the relatively thin vertical height of the stack rather than the much longer length and width.

But until now, Hurt says, no one had come up with a good way to make vertically oriented graphene nanochannels. That is until Muchun Liu, a former postdoctoral researcher in Hurt's lab, figured out a novel way to do it.

Liu's method involves stacking graphene sheets on an elastic substrate, which is placed under tension to stretch it out. After the sheets are deposited, the tension on the substrate is released, which allows it to contract. When that happens, the graphene assemblage on top wrinkles into sharp peaks and valleys.

"When you start wrinkling the graphene, you're tilting the sheets and the channels out of plane," said Liu, who is now a researcher at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "If you wrinkle it a lot, the channels end up being aligned almost vertically."

Once the channels are nearly vertical, the assemblage is encased in epoxy, and the tops and bottoms are then trimmed away, which opens the channels all the way through the material. The researchers have dubbed the assemblages VAGMEs (vertically aligned graphene membranes).

"What we end up with is a membrane with these short and very narrow channels through which only very small molecules can pass," Hurt said. "So, for example, water can pass through, but organic contaminants or some metal ions would be too large to go through. So you could filter those out."

Proof-of-concept testing demonstrated that water vapor could pass easily through a VAGME, while hexane -- a larger organic molecule -- was filtered out. The researchers plan to continue developing the technology, with an eye toward potential industrial or household filtering applications.

The research was supported by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences Superfund Research Program (P42 ES013660).

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/01/210121132409.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily%2Fmatter_energy%2Fgraphene+%28Graphene+News+--+ScienceDaily%29

The best way to give advice to your children is to find out what they want and then advise them to do it.

President Harry S Truman.

This weekend’s musical diversion. A 17 year old harpist handles Handel. Approx. 14 minutes long.

Handel - Harp Concerto in B flat Major, Morgan Mackenzie Short, 2014 Young Artist Concerto Winner

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K2PVL0tNtg

Next, this week’s chess masterclass. Approx. 16 minutes.

Queen Blunder or a Genius Move? || Giri vs Tari || Tata Steel (2021)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27id2q5iu78

Finally, is desperation is setting in in green energy? Approx. 9 minutes.

Gravity Energy Storage : A very uplifting technology!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh1--ftWWvY

You want a friend in Washington? Get a dog.

President Harry S Truman.

 

 

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