Baltic Dry Index. 690
-05 Brent
Crude 66.65
Car Crash Brexit now reset
17 days away. Day 115 of the
never-ending China trade talks.
The
only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.
John Kenneth Galbraith
Has the next recession already arrived? Officially we won’t know for many months. Official recessions are rear view mirror historical events. Human recessions occur in real time and are always denied until the bitter end. Human recessions reward the early and quick, punish the slow and in denial, hammer those deep in unrepayable debt.
If the next recession
is already hitting, it couldn’t arrive at a more damaging time. Planet earth has
just binged on mountain of unrepayable debt to produce the weakest recovery
from the great recession in modern history. President Trump is engaged in an
unwinnable trade war against friend and foe alike. A stagnant EU economy is
about to get hit with Brexit. Property prices and car sales now seem to be falling
almost everywhere. Western politics is at an all time low. In America, the
Democrat Party has turned hard left socialist.
Planet earth may not
actually be in the next recession but it’s faking it all too well. For now,
better safe than sorry, until hard proof arrives that this recession isn’t a
recession arriving after all. Goldilocks
perished a long time ago, the central bankster’s propped up corpse at the table
has now started to reek.
Experience
is what makes you pause briefly before going ahead and making the same mistake.
Mad
Magazine.
Asian markets plunge on recession fears
By Marketwatch
and Associated
Press Published: Mar 24, 2019 11:40
p.m. ET
Nikkei down more than 3%, Hang Seng off nearly 2%
Asian markets plummeted in early trading Monday, amid heightened recession worries.On Friday, the closely watched yield curve inverted, a key indicator of a potential U.S. recession. That sent global bonds yields plunging. Weak economic data from Europe added to fears of a global economic slowdown. Investors are also awaiting China-U.S. trade talks that are due to resume Thursday in Beijing.
Japan’s Nikkei NIK, -3.16% tumbled more than 3% on Monday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, -1.70% fell 1.8%, while the Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, -1.05% slid 1.2%. South Korea’s Kospi SEU, -1.68% sank 1.6%, and benchmark indexes in Taiwan Y9999, -1.50% , Singapore STI, -1.28% and Indonesia JAKIDX, +0.36% dropped as well. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -1.11% was off 1.2%.
----Wall Street, which posted losses around 2% on Friday, looked set to continue losses Monday — Dow futures YMM9, -0.46% were last down more than 100 points, and S&P 500 futures ESM9, -0.45% and Nasdaq futures NQM9, -0.69% were sinking as well.
More
Oil prices drop almost 1 percent on concerns recession may be looming
March 25, 2019 /
12:39 AM
SINGAPORE
(Reuters) - Oil prices dropped by almost 1 percent on Monday, with concerns
recession could be looming outweighing supply disruptions from OPEC’s
production cutbacks and from U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.
Brent
crude oil futures were at $66.56 per barrel at 0410 GMT, down 47 cents, or 0.7
percent, from their last close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were at $58.52 per barrel,
down 52 cents, or 0.9 percent, from their previous settlement.
Both crude oil price benchmarks have slumped by more than 3 percent
since last week hitting their highest since November 2018.
Concerns about a potential U.S. recession resurfaced late last week
after bearish remarks by the U.S. Federal Reserve, with 10-year treasury yields
slipping below the three-month rate for the first time since 2007.
Historically, an inverted yield curve - where long-term rates fall below
short-term - has signalled an upcoming recession.
Adding to the fears of a more widespread global downturn, manufacturing
output data from Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, shrunk for the third
straight month.
“Estimates for growth and earnings have been revised down materially
across all major regions,” said U.S. bank Morgan Stanley.
ANZ bank said the darkening economic outlook “overshadowed the
supply-side issues” the oil market was facing amid supply cuts led by producer
club OPEC as well as the U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and
non-affiliated allies such as Russia, together referred to as ‘OPEC+’, have
pledged to withhold around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil supply this
year to prop up markets, with OPEC’s de-facto leader seen to be pushing for a
crude price of over $70 per barrel.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-prices-drop-almost-1-percent-on-concerns-recession-may-be-looming-idUKKCN1R601R
Opinion: 9 reasons why the housing market risks
hitting a perfect storm
By Bernard
Baumohl Published: Mar 23, 2019
10:23 a.m. ET
There is no better barometer on the health of the U.S. economy than
housing. It’s an industry that encompasses a myriad of vital sectors — banking,
manufacturing, commodities, international trade, transportation and, of course,
consumer spending. So it’s not surprising the Federal Reserve closely monitors
housing trends in the course of setting monetary policy.
When the Fed made its surprise announcement this week to refrain from
any further rate increases in 2019, it was due in part to the persistent weakness
in housing. This concern was raised not just in the Beige Book but also in
subsequent speeches by FOMC voters.
Behind this worry is a simple truism: Sound economic growth in the U.S.
is not possible without a robust residential real-estate market. And housing
has been anything but robust this past year.
Early this month, the government reported that new home sales dropped
6.9% in January to a 607,000 annual rate, which happens to be 4.1% below its
year ago level. Not a great start to 2019. Sales crept up a disappointing 2.2%
all of last year.
More
In other news, the
never-ending trade talks never end. But events in the global economy may
already have made the talks moot.
China refuses to concede on U.S. demands to ease curbs on tech firms - FT
March 24, 2019 /
5:49 AM
(Reuters) - Ahead of fresh high-level trade talks this week, China is
not conceding to U.S. demands to ease curbs on technology companies, the
Financial Times reported on Sunday, citing three people briefed on the
discussions.
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary
Steven Mnuchin are scheduled to travel to Beijing for talks starting on March
28, the White House said on Saturday.
The FT report said Beijing had yet to offer “meaningful concessions” to
U.S. requests for China to stop discriminating against foreign cloud computing
providers, to reduce limits on overseas data transfers and to relax a
requirement for companies to store data locally.
China made an initial offer on digital trade that the United States
judged as insufficient, the report said, citing a source.
China then retracted the offer after the United States demanded stronger
pledges, the report said, without giving further details.
The White House and China’s Commerce Ministry did not respond to
requests from Reuters for comment on Sunday.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that the talks aimed at
resolving the trade dispute were progressing and a final agreement seemed
probable.
Italy signs on to China's Belt and Road initiative
March 23, 2019 /
12:19 PM
March 23 (UPI) -- Italy became the first G-7 country to sign on to China's Belt and
Road initiative on Saturday, a deal experts say is meant to expand the
country's global ambitions into Europe.Chinese president Xi Jinping visited Italian government officials in Rome on Friday. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said Saturday that his country will build a "more effective relationship" with China in connection with the joining the project, the Washington Post reported.
China's Belt and Road Initiative is a vast multi-continent project of highways, rail lines and energy pipelines connecting China economically to Europe. The Italian deal would open the door for Chinese infrastructure investment in Italian ports, while helping Beijing gain influence and trade goods in Western Europe.
"We export a lot less than we import, compared with our European friends," said Licia Mattioli, vice president for international affairs at Confindustria, the main Italian industry association. "So we think there is a huge potential that we can exploit."
Some European Union leaders cautioned Italy about its bilateral agreement with China.
---- Some experts expressed concern because Italy did not discuss geopolitical concerns about the Chinese project with the EU and United States allies.
"Everyone is somehow involved in the project but no other G7 country has signed an MoU of this kind," Renzo Cavalieri, a professor of law of east Asian countries at Ca' Foscari University of Venice, told the Guardian.
"What Italy has done, in quite a disordered way, is take a step ahead to create something which, so far, is not that strong in content but is quite important symbolically," he added.
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2019/03/23/Italy-signs-on-to-Chinas-Belt-and-Road-initiative/9841553356935/
Rail bridge connecting Russia, China completed
March 21, 2019 /
9:54 AM
March 21 (UPI) -- A rail bridge connecting Russia with China over the Amur River has
been completed, Russian media reported Thursday.The 7,218-foot bridge connects Nizhneleninskoye, Russia and Tongjiang, China and is expected to move some 21 million tons of goods between the two countries when it officially opens later this year. Iron ore, coal, mineral fertilizers and lumber are some of the products that will be moved across the bridge.
"This means that the first railway bridge between the countries has been successfully connected," the Chinese Heilongjiang administration said, according to the RBC news website.p
Construction crews started working on the final deck for the $300 million railroad bridge in February. Construction of the bridge had been going on since 2014, and China finished its half in October.
"After the railway bridge is put into operation, we can import all through the year, and this is also expected to reduce transportation costs by ($14.50) per cubic meter of timber," Xu Zhaojun, owner of a timber importer in Tongjiang, said in October, the state-run Xinhua news agency said.
China became the largest trading partner and source of foreign investment for the Russian Far East region. Song Kui, president of the Contemporary China-Russia Regional Economy Research Institute in Heilongjiang, said the new bridge would further enhance economic cooperation between the two countries.
“If you
feed enough oats to the horse, some will pass through to feed the sparrows.”
John
Kenneth Galbraith.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, all’s well in stocks. Well at least according to JP Morgan. But
they would say that wouldn’t they? When was the last time they told everyone to
get out of stocks and get out now? Something spooked the Fed and they probably
shared it with JP Morgan and their crony banksters.
Besides, if the Morganites started dumping out of stocks they’d a quick
call from Trump’s re-election man at the Fed. When the next recession hits,
don’t expect the Fed’s cronies to call it in advance.
‘Fatal Trifecta’: How JPMorgan Is Eyeing Market Risk
By Joanna Ossinger
23 March 2019, 10:00 GMT Updated on 23 March 2019,
13:27 GMT
In markets, too much of a good thing is often framed as bad. When things
are too calm, investors too enthusiastic, or valuations too rich, there is a
category of analysts who reliably get worried.
One of them is John Normand, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s head of cross
asset fundamental strategy, for whom the above checklist is a kind of mantra --
a trio of trends he monitors for signs of excess. At present, only one of the
three is making him nervous, this year’s lack of volatility across markets from
bonds to currency. But watch out if others start ticking up.
“The fatal trifecta for markets is below-average volatility, above-average positioning in cyclical assets like equities, credit and EM, and above average valuations in these markets,” Normand said in an interview Thursday. “Currently, only the first one is obvious across asset classes.”
It sounds strange to say after Friday’s market swings, including the biggest drop for the S&P 500 in three months, but 2019 has mainly been notable for the calmness that has prevailed across asset classes, as major central banks across the world stayed accommodative. In a monetary policy update this week, Federal Reserve officials slashed their projected interest-rate increases this year to zero from two.
The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate MOVE Index, a gauge of volatility of Treasuries, tumbled to an all-time low Wednesday, one day after a JPMorgan measure of currency swings on Tuesday fell to the lowest level since 2014.
Normand reiterated his view that volatility is too low, but could remain that way for a while due to a lack of investor irritants. In a note March 15, he cited potential catalysts for a volatility spike such as failed U.S.-China trade talks triggering a tariff increase, U.S. auto tariffs on the EU or a destabilizing spike of Brent crude above $80 a barrel, though didn’t see any of them as particularly imminent or likely.
But don’t count on the Fed to sustain tranquility because the central bank raised some questions with its policy statement on March 20, according to the strategist.
“The
Fed lowered growth projections -- it didn’t increase inflation projections at
all,” Normand said. “That is something that should perhaps stick in investors’
minds as a background concern -- why isn’t the Fed more confident about the
growth and inflation outlook if it’s characterizing constraints as transitory
and is also loosening financial conditions?”
More
“Men of
conservative temperament have long suspected that one thing leads to another.”
John Kenneth Galbraith
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
How Japan became the world leader in floating solar power
22 Mar 2019 Douglas Broom
Senior Writer, Formative Content
How do you increase your solar energy output when you need all your land
for agriculture and for housing? Answer: take to the water. That’s just what
they are doing in Japan.
The world’s first floating solar plant was built in Japan, in Aichi
Prefecture in central Honshu. The country’s many inland lakes and reservoirs
are now home to 73 of the world's 100 largest floating solar plants and account
for half of those plants’ 246 megawatts of solar capacity.
Hyogo Prefecture in southern Honshu has almost 40,000 lakes and already hosts nearly half the floating solar capacity of the world’s 100 largest plants. Many plants are small scale, helping the region to kick-start the move to distributed local power generation which the World Economic Forum has identified as the key to transforming the world’s power supply.
The biggest Japanese floating solar plant sits behind the Yamakura Dam at Ichihara in Chiba Prefecture. It covers 18 hectares, can power nearly 5,000 homes and is saving more than 8,000 tonnes of CO2 a year.
Floating solar is particularly well suited to Asia, where land is scarce but there are many hydroelectric dams with existing transmission infrastructure. China has just connected the world’s biggest floating solar plant at Anhui, which will generate almost 78,000 megawatts in its first year, enough to power 21,000 homes.
But Anhui’s record may not stand for very long. Next year, South Korea is due to complete what it says will become the world's largest floating solar plant, delivering 102.5 megawatts, capable of powering 35,000 homes. Singapore has built an offshore floating solar power plant in the Strait of Johor and Thailand plans 16 floating solar projects on nine hydropower dam reservoirs.
The world’s top 10 floating solar plants:
----The technology is relatively new. The first patents were taken out in 2008 and its proponents say floating solar is up to 16% more efficient than land-based systems. As well as freeing up scarce land, floating solar panels also stop the growth of algae, which can harm fish stocks and slow the rate of evaporation from reservoirs.Surging ahead
World floating solar output grew 100-fold from 2014 to 2018. It could soon provide more power than conventional land-based systems. The pace is picking up. India recently announced it plans to create 10 gigawatts of floating solar capacity.
Although its proponents say floating solar has massive potential, critics worry it may harm marine ecosystems by blocking sunlight. They also point to its vulnerability to bad weather. In 2017, a typhoon did considerable damage to an installation near Osaka.
More
"What can we advise our American colleagues? They should get more fresh air, do yoga, eat healthily, maybe watch some sitcoms on television."
Russia's deputy foreign minister
Sergei Ryabkov.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished February
DJIA: 25,916 +68 Down. NASDAQ: 7,533 +109 Down.
SP500:
2,784 +62 Down.
Normally this
would suggest more correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting
to be judged by the performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge
Protection Team now officially part of President Trump’s re-election team,
probably the safest action here is fully paid up synthetic double options on
most of the major indexes.
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