Baltic Dry Index. 712
-09 Brent
Crude 67.67
Car Crash Brexit 9
days away, maybe. Day 110 of the
never-ending China trade talks.
"I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements
that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country
must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."
E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January
12, 1928
Later today, the Fed
speaks, the markets expect “no change,” but will largely drift until the Powel
Put is reconfirmed. The never-ending USA v China trade talks continue with “progress”
or “no progress,” who knows? In Britain and Europe the Brexit political fiasco rumbles
on, with so far little consequence to either economy, despite all the rabid
Project Fear panicking.
Below, today’s early
morning Equinox roundup.
Asian shares slip from six-month high ahead of Fed policy decision
March 20, 2019 /
1:08 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) -
Asian shares slipped from six-month highs on Wednesday as investors took
profits ahead of a policy decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve which is
expected to shed more light on its interest rate plans for the rest of the
year.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.4
percent, led by losses in Australia and South Korea.
Japan’s Nikkei was little changed while mainland Chinese shares fell 0.5
percent.
Wall Street shares were narrowly mixed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500
losing 0.01 percent and the Nasdaq adding 0.12 percent.[.N]
Some market players said selling was triggered by a report of U.S.
concerns that China is pushing back against American demands in trade talks.
---- U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin plan to travel to China next week for another round of trade talks with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, a Trump administration official said on Tuesday.
“China is eager to come to an agreement so I’m not too worried. As long
as they are holding meetings, many things will work out,” said Wang Shenshen,
strategist at Tokai Tokyo Research Center.
Confidence among Asian companies remained near three-year lows in the
first quarter as the U.S.-China trade dispute dragged on, pulling down a global
economy that is already on a downward path, a Thomson Reuters/INSEAD survey
found.[ASIATOPCO/]
Companies in the survey listed the global trade war as the top business
risk, followed by higher interest rates and the slowing Chinese economy.
More
Up next, more on
those USA floods and other US news. The USA at a crossroads of sorts.
Nebraska underwater: 74 cities, 65 counties declare emergencies as flooding envelops state
USA TODAY Published 9:21
AM EDT Mar 19, 2019
Seventy-four cities, 65 counties and four tribal areas in Nebraska had
declared states of emergency Tuesday as swaths of the Midwest battled rivers
swollen by days of heavy rains and spring snowmelt.
Three deaths have been blamed on the flooding in Nebraska. Vice
President Mike Pence was scheduled to survey the damage in the region Tuesday
with Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts and Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds.
"Heading to Nebraska today to survey the devastating flood
damage," Pence said in a tweet. "To the people of Nebraska, Iowa,
South Dakota, Kansas & all regions impacted: we are with you!"
About 200 miles of levees were compromised in Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri
and Kansas, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said. Even in places where the
water level peaked in those states, the current was fast and the water so high
that damage continued to pile up. Thousands of people in the region
been driven from their homes by the fast-rising waters.
----In Mills County, Iowa, water stood 10 feet high near Pacific Junction, where only the top halves of gas stations, homes and storage units were visible. County Emergency Management Director Larry Hurst says the flooding might be worse than some of the most extreme historical events — in 1952, 1993 and 2011.
"This is actually different even than the flood of '52," he
said. "There's water on this entire basin."
Water continued to gush through a levee break near the Plattsmouth
Toll Bridge, where the Platte and Missouri rivers converge. The
mystery, he said, is the timeline for the water to recede.
"To tell you the truth, I don't know," he said. "I
don't think anybody knows."
Glenwood Mayor Ron Kohn prepared said his city of 5,000 was in
pretty good shape. But to the west, where the aging levee broke under rapidly
rising waters last week, farms were swamped.
"That's all going to be gone until next year, I'm sure,"
Kohn said. "Rice is about all they could grow out there now."
Overall, as of late Monday, about 8 million people in 14 states
live where a flood warning is in effect, the National Weather Service said.
More
Column: African swine fever may shift Chinese soy demand for years
March 19, 2019 /
10:43 AM
FORT COLLINS,
Colo. (Reuters) - Rampant outbreaks of African swine fever in pig herds across
China have inadvertently helped Beijing in its recent efforts to avoid U.S.
soybeans amid the ongoing trade war. But the deadly disease could have
longer-term effects on trade between the two countries as the impacts may
linger for years.
China is the global leader in pork consumption and requires an enormous
quantity of soybeans to crush into high-protein meal to feed its hog herd, the
world’s largest. This high level of demand is the primary reason the United
States and Brazil have such robust soybean-export programs.
When the trade war between the United States and China began last year,
the math suggested that given recent consumption rates, it would be nearly
impossible for China to avoid importing large quantities of U.S. soybeans late
in 2018, as Beijing had threatened.
Against the odds, China virtually avoided taking in any U.S. soybeans
during the first four months of the 2018-19 U.S. marketing year, when shipments
are typically greatest.
Luckily for China, Brazil’s exportable supplies were much more plentiful
than anyone had expected. But Brazil would not be able to completely fill the
U.S. void if China’s demand was as strong as last year, so there had to be
additional reasons why China’s plan had worked.
---- The timing of China’s ASF problem is very unfortunate for U.S. soybean farmers looking for export demand to bounce back once a trade agreement between the two countries is reached. Eradication of the disease can often take several years, meaning that Chinese soybean demand could be suppressed for a while.
ASF is a serious, highly contagious, viral disease of pigs that can spread rapidly among herds through direct or indirect contact. The increasing globalization of the livestock industry, along with the fact that ASF can survive long-term in uncooked pig products, allows the virus’ introduction to new regions.
---- Some of the milder strains can be difficult to diagnose, while the more severe ones can kill off entire herds.
Pigs do have the ability to recover from lower-intensity strains, but
there is no treatment or vaccine. Eradication requires quarantine and depopulation
of affected animals.
Historically, the disease has been difficult to control. An ASF outbreak
that swept the Iberian Peninsula in the 1960s took more than 30 years to
eradicate completely.
More
Capt. ‘Sully’ Sullenberger: Where Boeing and the FAA went wrong in this ‘ugly saga’
By Capt.
'Sully' Sullenberger Published: Mar
19, 2019 11:05 a.m. ET
The ‘Miracle on the Hudson’ pilot on the Boeing 737 Max controversy: ‘Our credibility as leaders in aviation is being damaged’
For most of the history of powered flight, the United States has been a world leader in aviation.This nation’s aviation regulatory body, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), has long been the gold standard of safety regulation in global aviation, often a template for other nations to follow in technical and safety matters.
Boeing has long been the world’s preeminent airplane maker.
But now, our credibility as leaders in aviation is being damaged. Boeing and the FAA have been found wanting in this ugly saga that began years ago but has come home to roost with two terrible fatal crashes, with no survivors, in less than five months, on a new airplane type, the Boeing 737 Max 8, something that is unprecedented in modern aviation history.
For
too many years, the FAA has not been provided budgets sufficient to ensure
appropriate oversight of a rapidly growing global aviation industry. Staffing
has not been adequate for FAA employees to oversee much of the critically
important work of validating and approving aircraft certification.
Instead,
much of the work has been outsourced by designating aircraft manufacturer
employees to do the work on behalf of the FAA. This, of course, has created
inherent conflicts of interest, when employees working for the company whose
products must be certified to meet safety standards are the ones doing much of
the work of certifying them. There simply are not nearly enough FAA employees
to do this important work in-house.
To make matters worse, there is too cozy a relationship between the
industry and the regulators. And in too many cases, FAA employees who rightly
called for stricter compliance with safety standards and more rigorous design
choices have been overruled by FAA management, often under corporate or
political pressure.
Let me be clear, without effective leadership and support from political
leaders in the administration, the FAA does not have sufficient independence to
be able to do its job, which is to keep air travelers and crews safe. Oversight
must mean accountability, or it means nothing.
Boeing, in developing the 737 Max 8, obviously felt intense competitive pressure to get the new aircraft to market as quickly as possible. When flight testing revealed an issue with meeting the certification standards, they developed a fix, Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS), but did not tell airline pilots about it. In mitigating one risk, they seem to have created another, greater risk.
After the crash of Lion Air 610 last October, it was apparent that this new risk needed to be effectively addressed. It has been reported that Boeing pushed back in discussions with the FAA about the extent of changes that would be required, and after the second crash, of Ethiopian 302, the Boeing CEO reached out to the U.S. President to try to keep the 737 Max 8 from being grounded in the U.S. The new fix still has not been fielded, nearly five months after Lion Air. It almost certainly could have been done sooner, and should have been.
More
Jamie Dimon: The wealthy are doing fine, but the poor are being left behind
By Shawn
Langlois Published: Mar 18, 2019
2:01 p.m. ET
‘I
don’t want to be a tone deaf CEO; while the company is doing fine, it is
absolutely obvious that a big chunk of [people] have been left behind — 40% of
Americans make less than $15 an hour: 40% of Americans can’t afford a $400
bill, whether it’s medical or fixing their car 15% of Americans make minimum
wages. 70,000 die from opioids.’ Jamie Dimon
Dimon, who clearly is “doing fine” with a reported net worth of $1.3 billion, was speaking at an event in New York to unveil a new $350 million program aimed at improving job prospects for people in underserved communities.
Setting a personal record, Dimon received a compensation package valued at $31 million in 2018, up 5% from $29.5 million in 2017.
Dimon has often spoken of the need to narrow the divide between the haves and the have-nots. In an op-ed in the New York Times years ago, he said issues like a lack of education, training and skills development have led about two-thirds of Americans to expect the next generation to be worse off than the last, and that’s preventing many from reaping the rewards of the country’s economic growth.
“It is true that too many people are not getting a fair opportunity to get ahead,” he wrote. “We must find ways to help them move up the economic ladder, and everyone — business, government and nonprofits — needs to play a role.”
In his latest discussion on the matter, Dimon again touched on the “broken” educational system in the wake of the admissions scam that erupted last week. He said that JPMorgan Chase stopped donating to colleges years ago due to shortfalls he noted well before the latest scandal hit.
“Harvard and Princeton are not a philanthropy,” he said. “Helping these kids is.”
In Europe news, despite
Brexit GB Plc is on something of a roll, even as incompetent Prime Minister May
is supposedly going to ask the EU later today for a Brexit delay. All rump-27
EU nations have to agree, and many will probably seek money or other bribes, so
for now a Brexit on March 29 is still a real possibility.
Given Germany’s
accelerating slowdown, the EUSSR is already heading towards a difficult rest of
the year ahead, no matter what happens with GB’s exit from the EUSSR.
President Xi arrives
in Italy tomorrow, where Italy and China will sign a MOU on China’s Belt and
Road project. Brussels and Washington’s influence is in stark decline.
BBC: Due to continuing Brexit
fears, the UK unemployment rate has fallen only slightly to just 3.9%. Due to
Brexit, this is only the second time it has been below 4% in 45 years. At the
same time real wages have risen by a mere 1.5% after inflation on Brexit
worries.
21st century adage: Is that true,
or did you hear it on the BBC?
UK employers defy approach of Brexit with hiring spree
March 19, 2019 /
9:31 AM
LONDON (Reuters) -
British employers ramped up their hiring at the fastest pace since 2015 in the
three months to January as the labour market defied broader Brexit weakness in
the overall economy.
The number of people in work surged by 222,000, helping to push the
unemployment rate down to its lowest since the start of 1975 at 3.9 percent,
official data showed.
The increase in hiring was stronger than all forecasts in a Reuters poll
of economists and pushed the proportion of the population in work to an
all-time high.
The pound rose slightly after the data.
The surprising resilience of the labour market and the subsequent rise
in wage growth, plus a fall in inflation, are cushioning the Brexit uncertainty
for many households, whose spending drives the economy.
More
German economic advisors slash 2019 growth forecast to 0.8 percent
March 19, 2019 /
10:13 AM
BERLIN (Reuters) -
A panel of advisers to the German government slashed its growth forecast for
this year to 0.8 percent and warned risks related to Britain’s departure from
the European Union, trade disputes and a sharper than expected slowdown in China
remained high.
The group that
advises the German government on economic policy had in November forecast that
Europe’s largest economy would expand by 1.5 percent this year.
The panel said on Tuesday economic growth had slowed significantly,
partly due to problems in the chemical and auto sectors and warned that a
spiral of protectionist measures had the potential to push the economy into
recession.
But Christoph Schmidt, one of the advisers, said: “The German economic
boom is over but a recession is not currently expected due to the robust
domestic economy.”
The group predicted the economy would grow by 1.7 percent in 2020.
Finally,
today, Spring (Autumn) Equinox news for Dummies.
Does the equinox sun really rise due east and set due west?
By Bruce McClure in Tonight | March 19, 2019
The March 2019 equinox happens on March 20 at 21:58 Universal Time, which is 4:58 p.m. Central Daylight Time for us in the central U.S. Translate to your time zone. What’s more, the March 2019 full moon comes less than four hours later, to stage the closest coincidence of the March equinox with the full moon since March 20, 2000.
Read more: Full supermoon on March 2019 equinox
The March equinox heralds the arrival of spring in the Northern Hemisphere and autumn in the Southern Hemisphere. On this day, the sun rises due east and sets due west.
It may seem counterintuitive. But it’s true no matter where you live on Earth (except the North and South Poles, where there is no east or west).
To understand the due-east and due-west rising and setting of an equinox sun, you have to think of the reality of Earth in space. First think of why the sun’s path across our sky shifts from season to season. It’s because our world is tilted on its axis with respect to its orbit around the sun.
Now think about what an equinox is. It’s an event that happens on the imaginary dome of Earth’s sky. It marks that special moment when the sun crosses the celestial equator going from south to north. And it also, of course, represents a point on Earth’s orbit.
The celestial equator is a great circle dividing the imaginary celestial sphere into its northern and southern hemispheres. The celestial equator wraps the sky directly above Earth’s equator. At the March equinox, the sun crosses the celestial equator to enter the sky’s Northern Hemisphere.
All these components are imaginary, yet what happens at every equinox is very real – as real as the sun’s passage across the sky each day and as real as the change of the seasons.
No matter where you are on Earth (except for the North and South Poles), you have a due east and due west point on your horizon. That point marks the intersection of your horizon with the celestial equator, the imaginary great circle above the true equator of the Earth.
And that’s why the sun rises due east and sets due west, for all of us, at the equinox. The equinox sun is on the celestial equator. No matter where you are on Earth, the celestial equator intersects your horizon at due east and due west.
More
"There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything
in the nature of a crash."
Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist, New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, Forbes thinks we’d all be better off on a gold standard. But the
banksters and stock pedlars would never allow that.
Why Gold Is Still The Best Basis For Money
Nathan Lewis Mar
16, 2019, 11:39am
As we continue to enjoy the "Yellen gold standard," now in its Powell phase -- who
knows how long it will last -- let's look at why the gold standard system worked
so well for so many centuries, including nearly two centuries of U.S.
history before the rupture in 1971, during which time the United States became
the wealthiest country in the history of world.
In 1971, the economist Arthur Laffer -- he was the chief economist of the Office of Management and Budget at the time -- was asked what he thought the consequences would be of Nixon's "closing of the gold window," which effectively ended the Bretton Woods period when the dollar's value was fixed at $35/ounce of gold.
"It won't be as much fun to be an American anymore," Laffer reportedly replied. And he was right.
But why? Why is it that the collective intelligence (let's be generous) of today's central bankers, and indeed all the central bankers since 1971, cannot outperform a yellow rock? This probably strikes some as bizarre, but it has always been thus. Way back in 1928, in a book called The Intelligent Woman's Guide to Socialism and Capitalism, George Bernard Shaw declared:
"You have to choose ... between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability of the honesty and intelligence of the members of the Government. And, with due respect for these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the Capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold."
It's the same today. These things never change. Ninety years ago, intelligent women understood these things.
To understand why gold works, as a standard of monetary value, you have to understand what makes good money. Today's cryptocurrency enthusiasts are rediscovering what monetary thinkers have always known: that the best money is stable money, or, as I like to term it, Stable Money -- money that is stable in value. After learning that Bitcoin and its ilk make splendid devices for gambling (the continued popularity of places like Las Vegas and Macau show that there remains a large interest in such things), but a rather poor currency -- exactly as I said would happen some years ago -- the cryptocurrency engineers are now focusing their energies on developing "stablecoins."
Ideally, a currency would be perfectly stable in value. The market economy is organized via prices, profit margins, returns on capital and interest rates. Changes in the value of the currency derange this process, creating chaos and havoc. John Maynard Keynes described in 1923:
"[Markets] cannot work properly if the money, which they assume as a stable measuring-rod, is undependable. Unemployment, the precarious life of the worker, the disappointment of expectation, the sudden loss of savings, the excessive windfalls to individuals, the speculator, the profiteer--all proceed, in large measure, from the instability of the standard of value."
In The Scandal of Money (2016), George Gilder updated this insight, using the tools of modern information theory:
"Casting a shroud of uncertainty over all valuation, monetary manipulations shorten the time horizons of the economy. In information theory, the dominant science of our age, when a medium sends a message of its own--static on the line--it's called noise. Noise in the channel reduces the channel's capacity to transmit accurate information."
In practice, such idealized perfection is not quite possible, so we have to go with the next best thing. The next best thing is gold: the thing that most closely approximates this ideal of stability of value.
President James Madison summed up succinctly:
The only adequate guarantee for the uniform and stable value of a paper currency is its convertibility into specie [gold]--the least fluctuating and the only universal currency.
More
"This
crash is not going to have much effect on business."
Arthur
Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
How to choose the best battery for a solar energy system
Last updated 3/8/2019
There are certain specifications you should use when
evaluating your solar battery options, such as how long the solar battery will
last or how much power it can provide. Below, learn about all of the criteria
that you should use to compare your home energy storage options, as well as the
different types of solar batteries.How to compare your solar storage options
As you consider your solar-plus-storage options, you’ll come across a lot of complicated product specifications. The most important ones to use during your evaluation are the battery’s capacity & power ratings, depth of discharge (DoD), round-trip efficiency, warranty, and manufacturer.Capacity & power
Capacity is the total amount of electricity that a solar battery can store, measured in kilowatt-hours (kWh). Most home solar batteries are designed to be “stackable,” which means that you can include multiple batteries with your solar-plus-storage system to get extra capacity.While capacity tells you how big your battery is, it doesn’t tell you how much electricity a battery can provide at a given moment. To get the full picture, you also need to consider the battery’s power rating. In the context of solar batteries, a power rating is the amount of electricity that a battery can deliver at one time. It is measured in kilowatts (kW).
A battery with a high capacity and a low power rating would deliver a low amount of electricity (enough to run a few crucial appliances) for a long time. A battery with low capacity and a high power rating could run your entire home, but only for a few hours.
Depth of discharge (DoD)
Most solar batteries need to retain some charge at all times due to their chemical composition. If you use 100 percent of a battery’s charge, its useful life will be significantly shortened.The depth of discharge (DoD) of a battery refers to the amount of a battery’s capacity that has been used. Most manufacturers will specify a maximum DoD for optimal performance. For example, if a 10 kWh battery has a DoD of 90 percent, you shouldn’t use more than 9 kWh of the battery before recharging it. Generally speaking, a higher DoD means you will be able to utilize more of your battery’s capacity.
More
https://www.energysage.com/solar/solar-energy-storage/what-are-the-best-batteries-for-solar-panels/
"Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom."
R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished February
DJIA: 25,916 +68 Down. NASDAQ: 7,533 +109 Down.
SP500:
2,784 +62 Down.
Normally this
would suggest more correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting
to be judged by the performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge
Protection Team now officially part of President Trump’s re-election team,
probably the safest action here is fully paid up synthetic double options on
most of the major indexes.
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