Saturday, 24 February 2018

Weekend Update 24/02/2018 Europe - One Big Mess.



“When it becomes serious, you have to lie.”

Jean-Claude Juncker. Failed former Luxembourg P.M., serial liar, president of the European Commission. Scotch connoisseur.

This weekend the growing problems of Europe, from Brexit to dodgy elections from Germany to Italy, Catalan independence, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic against all, and the never-ending tragedy of Greece. If it wasn’t for bad luck continental Europe would have no luck at all. 

But first this from the ever more rigged world of stocks. With the month  end approaching and stocks still wobbling from normalising interest rates, time to dress up the indexes to protect the bonuses.

Dow surges 350 points as stocks book weekly gains

Published: Feb 23, 2018 5:08 p.m. ET
Closely watched 10-year Treasury yield eases to 2.87%
U.S. stocks jolted higher in the final hour of trading on Friday, erasing weekly losses as persistent hand-wringing about rising bond yields and the re-emergence of long-dormant inflation receded on Wall Street.

A report from the Federal Reserve, a precursor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments in front of Congress next week, offered few signs that the central bank would adopt a more aggressive monetary-policy tacked.

What are the main benchmarks doing?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average  DJIA, +1.39% rose 347.51 points, or 1.4%, to 25,309.99, benefiting from sharp gains in components Goldman Sachs Group Inc., underlining rising demand for bank stocks which are likely to profit as benchmark yields march higher. The index has been up for two straight weeks, representing its largest two week climb, up 4.6%, since Nov. 18, 2016, according to WSJ Market Data Group.

The S&P 500 index SPX, +1.60% added 43.34 points, or 1.6%, to 2,747, buttressed by broad sector gains and highlighted by advances of more than 2% in the energy and technology sectors. The two straight weeks of gains for the equity index, up 2.9% over that period, are its most since Feb. 13, 2015.

The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +1.77% meanwhile, surged 127.30 points, or 1.8%, to end at 7,337.39, snapping a four-session skid, and putting the index just 2.2% shy of its Jan. 26 peak at 7,505.77.
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Now back to the growing problems of the dying EUSSR. First tiny Latvia, was the ECB asleep at the switch or deliberately turning a blind eye?


Jean-Claude Juncker. Failed Luxembourg Prime Minister and ex-president of the Euro Group of Finance Ministers. Confessed liar. European Commission President. Scotch connoisseur.


Russians, Bribes and Spies Raise the Scandal Bar for EU Banking

Kremlin shrugs off the turmoil of ‘our Latvian comrades’
By Aaron Eglitis, Jake Rudnitsky, and Ott Ummelas
23 February 2018, 05:00 GMT

Just days after the U.S. threatened to penalize Latvia’s third-biggest lender for having “institutionalized money laundering,” including for clients linked to North Korea’s nuclear-weapons program, authorities in Riga detained veteran central bank Governor Ilmars Rimsevics on suspicion of bribe-taking.

Hours later, after Rimsevics’s two-day detention ended, the drama deepened with the publication of an Associated Press investigation that suggested he’s a target of Russia’s security services. As a member of the European Central Bank’s governing council, Rimsevics is privy to market-moving decisions, as the AP noted, and he’s also a senior official in a former Soviet state that angered Moscow by joining NATO.
Under fire from multiple sides, Rimsevics quickly summoned reporters Tuesday to deny wrongdoing, accuse banks of conspiring against him and declare himself the victim of a death threat designed to destabilize Latvia. Premier Maris Kucinskis thickened the plot shortly after by urging Rimsevics to resign—while also disparaging the bank Norvik and its Russian owner Grigory Guselnikov for publicly accusing Rimsevics of demanding a bribe without producing evidence.
Then the Defense Ministry weighed in with what amounted to a national-security alert that all but accused Russia of a disinformation attack it called “identical” to those seen in the U.S., France and Germany. President Raimonds Vejonis followed with a warning of his own, saying Latvia is locked in a “hybrid war” and that Rimsevics should step down for the sake of the financial system.
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Europe to Wind Down Latvian Bank Targeted by U.S. Over Sanctions

By Nicholas Comfort
24 February 2018, 02:29 GMT
European authorities moved to liquidate ABLV Bank AS after clients pulled assets from the lender following U.S. accusations that it laundered money.

The European Central Bank, which had already placed a freeze on payments by the lender, said early Saturday in Frankfurt that ABLV was failing or likely to fail, handing it over to Europe’s Single Resolution Board. That authority said a resolution of the bank and its Luxembourg-based subsidiary isn’t in the public interest.

ABLV was plunged into crisis after the U.S. Treasury Department this month proposed to ban it from the American financial system, saying it helped process illicit transactions, including for entities with alleged ties to North Korea’s ballistic missile program. The bank responded by saying the allegations are wrong and misleading and that it’s working to provide information to the Treasury that would help to overturn the proposal.

Latvia’s central bank late Friday tripled emergency liquidity assistance to ABLV after input from the ECB and local regulators. The ECB previously asked Latvia’s Financial and Capital Markets Commission to impose a moratorium on ABLV, which meant the bank was barred from making payments on financial liabilities including deposits and bonds until further notice. The measure, a first for the ECB, was necessary to stabilize outflows after a “significant deterioration of bank’s financial position.”

----ABLV and a subsidiary will be wound down under Latvian and Luxembourg law, meaning eligible deposits are protected up to 100,000 euros ($123,000), the SRB said in a statement early Saturday from Brussels.
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But the rest of the insane asylum is no better and about to get much worse. Euros anyone?


Jean-Claude Juncker. Failed Luxembourg Prime Minister and ex-president of the Euro Group of Finance Ministers. Confessed liar. European Commission President. Scotch connoisseur.

German Politics Enters Era of Instability

Germany's big-tent parties have ensured political stability for decades. But they are rapidly losing power and influence. The Social Democrats are witnessing an open rebellion against party leadership while many conservatives are beginning to doubt Merkel's abilities. By DER SPIEGEL Staff
February 16, 2018  06:34 PM
Early Tuesday afternoon, a small group met for a closed-door meeting at the headquarters of Germany's Social Democratic Party (SPD) in Berlin. The meeting was supposed to be about a formality, but it was in fact about the very future of the party.
Martin Schulz, still the center-left party's chair at the time, was present, as were six of his deputies, the general secretary, the treasurers, Lower Saxony Governor Stephan Weil and, of course, Andrea Nahles, the party's parliamentary whip. The group wanted to commence the previously announced change in party leadership -- former chancellor candidate Schulz was to step down, with Nahles taking over as the provisional head of the SPD until her planned installation as chair at an upcoming party conference. The hope was to restore calm in the party.
But it didn't work. Resistance cropped up everywhere. SPD lawyers argued that it wasn't legal for Nahles to serve as the party's interim head. Emails from furious party members began flooding into SPD headquarters. On social media, members of the party began cursing the stubborn party establishment. And three state chapters opposed the plan outright.
It set off a wave of the kind seen often recently, an insurgency from below against those at the top, the party grassroots against its leadership.
----In actuality, though, it was a defeat for Nahles. Yet again, she was caught entirely by surprise by the sentiment in a party that she believes to know so well.
The fact is that the party's grassroots are angry, and their fury is no longer exclusively focused on plans to join Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives in yet another grand coalition. The upcoming party vote on that coalition agreement is in the process of transforming into a vote on the SPD's leadership and political culture. Party leaders in Berlin are at risk of losing control -- as though their link with the party base has been broken.
Western Democracies in Crisis
And this phenomenon is by no means exclusive to the SPD. The conservative Christian Democrats are also seeing the authority of their once all-powerful chancellor being eroded, with discontent and the urge for change growing in the party base.
Germany finds itself oscillating between a longing for stability and the desire for upheaval. Surveys show that support for both the CDU and the SPD has plunged, to the point that, were elections held today, it isn't even certain that a grand coalition would have a majority.
Suddenly, upheaval is everywhere. Within the SPD, everyone seems to be fighting with everyone else, with a large number taking aim at acting Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel. Above all, the party base is in open revolt against the leadership. Within the Christian Democrats, meanwhile, Chancellor Merkel's authority is melting away. The Merkel era is drawing to a close and the upheavals caused by her efforts to modernize her party are now breaking into the open.
The country is slipping into a crisis and Germany, the bastion of stability in Europe, is becoming politically unstable. And every month the country continues to be run by a provisional government is another month that Germany doesn't have a voice in Europe or the world.
This is by no means purely a domestic development. The party system is currently being turn upside down across Western democracies. Owing to Germany's prosperity and the sedative power of its chancellor, it long appeared that Merkel had been spared by the international development. But the torturous wrangling to create a new government has now dashed that hope.
In France, the two parties that once dominated the country now hold only just over a quarter of the seats in the national parliament. In Italy, the Five Star Movement, which doesn't seem to stand for much other than the desire for change and its loathing of the status quo and is led by a former TV comedian, appears to have strong chances of winning the election there in March.
A Radical Loss of Support
In Germany, the old establishment parties are also struggling to maintain political stability. Combined support for the SPD and the conservatives has dropped from over 90 percent at the beginning of the 1970s to just 49 percent today. Their decline, which had previously been a slow and creeping process, has rapidly accelerated in recent months.
The party system in Germany is splintering, with seven parties now represented in national parliament. When it is no longer possible to form governments with two or three parties, it will necessarily become increasingly difficult to build stable governments. Italy already provides an example of what that can mean. The country is constantly swapping out its prime minister and holding snap elections. Italy has had almost 30 prime ministers and a total of 61 cabinets since 1946. In the same period, Germany has been governed by eight chancellors.
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February 22, 2018 / 3:11 PM

Germany's far-right AfD set to embrace anti-Islam PEGIDA

BERLIN (Reuters) - A leader of the nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) is pushing to overturn the party’s ban on members joining rallies by the anti-Islam PEGIDA movement - another sign of the rightward shift of Germany’s budding main opposition party.
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives and the Social Democrats (SPD) are struggling to stop voters switching to the AfD, which won almost 13 percent in a Sept. election and entered parliament. The latest INSA poll this week showed the AfD on 16 percent - overtaking the SPD for the first time.
Keen to ensure it does not alienate voters in the political centreground, the AfD has in the past been careful to avoid allying itself with the grassroots PEGIDA movement which holds regular events to protest against “Islamisation”.
Crowds at PEGIDA (Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamisation of the West) rallies have dwindled since peaking in early 2015. At that time, some 25,000 supporters joined twilight rallies and marches through Dresden which struck a chord with those opposed to an influx of migrants in Germany.
“This is about PEGIDA in Dresden,” Joerg Meuthen, AfD co-leader, told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung daily. “We should lift the ban on cooperation that we have,” he said.
He wants AfD members to be able to speak at PEGIDA rallies and show party symbols there.
The city of Dresden in the formerly communist east of Germany has since become home to a strong far-right movement and fertile ground for PEGIDA. At the marches, PEGIDA supporters hold placards with slogans such as “foreigners out”.
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February 22, 2018 / 11:16 AM

Tuscan rivals in Italy vote spar over centre-right currency plan

SIENA, Italy (Reuters) - A proposal by a centre-right coalition, leading polls ahead of a March 4 election, to issue small-denomination sovereign bonds would damage public accounts and curb economic growth, Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan said on Thursday.
Championed by the eurosceptic League and backed by former premier Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, the bonds would be issued by the Treasury to those owed money by the state.
Padoan, who has served as a technocrat in a government run by the centre-left Democratic Party (PD), told RAI state TV the scheme was “a plan to circulate a disguised parallel currency”.
He is running for the first time as a PD candidate in the Tuscan town of Siena, where his rival is the architect of the currency scheme -- the League’s economics chief Claudio Borghi.
“Historical experience shows that, in these cases, a country that adopts a double currency drastically damages its public finances, growth potential and stability,” said Padoan, whose party has slumped in polls as the centre-right has strengthened.
The League maintains that such a measure would not constitute printing a parallel currency, saying that having two currencies with different exchange rates would risk putting a “disastrous” gap between the value of income in the weaker currency and debts in the stronger.
Proposals to flank the euro with new financial instruments have caused some concern among investors, who ditched Italian debt last year when Berlusconi said he wanted to print a “new lira” for domestic use.
While the general scheme is jointly backed by the centre-right group, including the far-right Brothers of Italy, the League has separately presented a detailed plan to issue “mini-BOTs”, named after Italy’s short-term government bonds.
Once in circulation, the League says these notes could be used to pay taxes and buy state-provided goods and services, such as petrol from government-controlled oil company ENI.
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February 23, 2018 / 11:30 AM

Italian bonds set for worst week of year as election approaches

LONDON (Reuters) - Italy’s 10-year government bond yield was poised on Friday for its biggest weekly rise of the year, reflecting some unease at the approach of a national election that is expected to result in a hung parliament.
Italian bond markets have so proved resilient in the run-up to the March 4 election thanks to a stronger euro zone economy, a ratings upgrade, the fading risk of a euro-zone break-up and a toning down of anti-euro rhetoric from populist parties.
But with the election just over a week away some uncertainty has crept in, leading to losses for Italian debt and gains for safe-haven German bonds. Markets also digested new bond supply from Italy.
Latest polls point to a hung parliament and analysts expect a short period of volatility that could weigh on bonds and stocks.
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EU ON BRINK: Germany demands rogue states Hungary and Poland get LESS cash from Brussels

GERMANY wants countries hosting large numbers of migrants to be rewarded with more EU regional aid in a move that would shift funds away from poorer countries in central and eastern Europe.

By Paul Withers  PUBLISHED: 07:01, Fri, Feb 23, 2018 | UPDATED: 10:42, Fri, Feb 23, 2018
According to a proposal, Berlin wants more of the EU’s multinational budget to be tied to respect for core Brussels' policies and values, such as migration and the rule of law.
The report said Berlin pushed the plan at a preparatory meeting of senior officials earlier this week, according to two people at the talks in Brussels.
Under the proposal, seen by the Financial Times, the EU’s “structural and investment” funds would support governments that “have assumed responsibility for taking in and integrating beneficiaries of international protection of migrants with a right to stay”.
This approach would reportedly cut the focus on a country’s wealth and possibly move some funds to richer nations in northern and western Europe which host migrants.
----Budget talks will begin at a summit of EU leaders in Brussels this week, with the future of the regional funds set to be one of the hot topics.
But the question of how far the EU should reduce spending by in the wake of Brexit, which will deprive the bloc of the UK’s financial contribution, could complicate negotiations.
This initiative comes amid growing concern in a number of EU capitals that the Polish and Hungarian governments are disregarding the bloc’s usual stance on independence of the judiciary and other institutions.
Traditionally, there has been a heavy focus on infrastructure projects as well as education and training for EU nationals, so the new plan would be a big departure from that.
Germany’s draft coalition deal between Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU and the centre-left Social Democratic party commits the country to increasing its contribution following the UK exit from the EU.

In a podcast on February 17, Mrs Merkel spoke of linking more regional funds to the way the bloc handles migrants, and added “solidarity cannot be a one-way street”.
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February 23, 2018 / 2:16 PM

Portugal PM backs higher EU contributions, new taxes post-Brexit

LISBON (Reuters) - Portugal wants member states to contribute more to the European Union’s budget and is proposing three new taxes to finance what will be a 27-strong bloc after Britain leaves it, Prime Minister Antonio Costa said on Friday.

In televised comments made in Brussels before the start of an informal EU summit, Costa said Portugal supported the idea of a common EU tax on international financial transactions, as well as levies on digital platforms and companies that pollute.

With less contributions (post-Brexit) every state should be ready to give more, just as Portugal is ready to contribute more to the EU,” Costa said, calling for member contributions to rise to 1.2 percent of gross national income from 1 percent now.

Some member states argue they should not pay more and the EU budget should be cut instead to compensate for Britain’s exit.

Twenty months after Britons voted to leave the EU, London and Brussels are still negotiating the terms of the divorce. Britain is due to leave the bloc in March 2019 with a transition period to follow that Brussels proposes will end on Dec. 31, 2020.

“But it is also important for the EU to have new own resources so as not to simply depend on contributions by the member states ... It would be good to have the two forms balanced out,” Costa said, urging the current EU parliament to approve such changes before its term ends in mid-2019.
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Austria sues over EU approval of Hungary nuclear plant

Staunchly anti-nuclear Austria lodged a legal complaint with the European Court of Justice yesterday (22 February) against the EU’s approval of the expansion of a nuclear plant in neighbouring Hungary.
The approval, granted by the European Commission in March, would allow the expansion of the Paks nuclear plant outside the Hungarian capital Budapest with a €10 billion Russian loan.
The plant is Hungary’s only nuclear facility and supplies around 40% of its electricity needs.
“For our nature, our environment and our unique landscape, we must take up this David and Goliath struggle,” sustainability minister Elisabeth Koestinger said in a statement, confirming the launching of the complaint at the Court of Justice of the European Union.
“Nuclear energy must have no place in Europe. We will not budge one centimetre from this position!” she added.
In its decision the European Commission judged that the project met EU rules on state aid, but Austria disputes this.
Austrian environmental campaigners praised the new centre-right government for pursuing a legal action that had been planned by the Social Democrat voted out of power late last year.
The Paks plant was built with Soviet-era technology in the 1980s during Hungary’s communist period.
The construction of two new reactors at the site is part of a 2014 deal struck between Hungary’s right-wing Prime Minister Victor Orbán and ally Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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February 23, 2018 / 11:38 AM

May to set out Brexit wishes; EU says ideas so far are 'pure illusion'

LONDON (Reuters) - Prime Minister Theresa May will outline her wishes for Britain’s post-Brexit ties with the European Union next week after winning support from key ministers, although European Council President Donald Tusk on Friday called the ideas floated so far “pure illusion”.
EU leaders have repeatedly pressed May to detail her vision for future relations, but she has been hampered by divisions within her Conservative Party, with some backing continued close ties and others seeking a “clean break”.
In an attempt to forge a common position, May hosted an eight-hour meeting of her so-called Brexit war committee on Thursday at her 16th-century country residence outside London.
Few details of the discussions were released, but one source said May had accepted the argument of those ministers who wanted to diverge more quickly from EU rules and regulations.
“It was a very positive meeting and a step forward, agreeing the basis of the prime minister’s speech on our future relationship,” May’s spokesman told reporters, adding that she would deliver her speech on March 2.
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“Of course, there will be transfers of sovereignty. But would I be intelligent to draw the attention of public opinion to this fact?”

Jean-Claude Juncker. Failed Luxembourg Prime Minister and ex-president of the Euro Group of Finance Ministers. Confessed liar. European Commission President. Scotch connoisseur.


Finally, Oh Canada! There's hope for GB’s Prime Minister May yet.

Maybe, just once, someone in India will call me "sir" without adding, "you're making a scene."


Justin Trudeau, with apologies to Homer Simpson.
 

Canadian PM Trudeau roundly mocked for political, fashion blunders during disastrous trip to India


Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been roundly mocked for a series of political, cultural, and fashion blunders during his trip to India.


Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not acknowledge his arrival on social media and sent a junior-level agricultural minister to meet him at the airport.
Indian citizens, politicians, and pundits have been ripping Trudeau for various elements of his trips, while the papers back in Canada do the same.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, normally a darling of Western media, has been roundly, and sometimes savagely, mocked for a trip to India that included cultural, fashion, and political blunders at every turn. 

Trudeau's trip began to go awry right off the bat. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, known for his social-media savvy, did not make any posts welcoming Trudeau, who was greeted off the plane by a low-level agricultural minister.

On Tuesday, Trudeau's wife, Sophie, posed for a photo with Jaspal Atwal, a Sikh separatist who was once convicted of trying to assassinate an Indian politician.

Back in Canada, Trudeau's liberal party has ties to the country's Sikh community, some of whom support the Khalistan movement, which backs a new Sikh state in India's Punjab region. When Outlook India magazine pointed this out, it found itself disinvited from a dinner with Trudeau.

"Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau feted the world over as the new face of 'liberalism' seem to find it difficult to accommodate critical media coverage," the magazine wrote. 

Though Trudeau assured India's government that he didn't back the separatist movement, Canada's diplomatic mission had also sent a dinner invitation to Atwal — which it later rescinded.

But the political blunders paled in comparison with the more visible cultural missteps. On several occasions Trudeau and his family appeared dressed in traditional Indian clothing, something other Western politicians don't usually attempt with such vigor.

Prominent Indian personalities expressed their distaste for Trudeau's dress, with India Today calling it "tacky." Trudeau showed up at an event full of Bollywood stars in full traditional dress, while the movie stars themselves simply wore black suits.

On social media, popular Indian personalities put it more bluntly, calling for Trudeau to "have some chill" and calling his outfit choices "fake and annoying."

At one point, Trudeau, wearing traditional dress, broke into the Indian dance called the Bhangra, to a mixed reaction on Twitter.
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Q: What do you call a sophisticated American?

A: Canadian.


 

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