Baltic Dry Index. 1095 -19 Brent Crude 68.10
Corruption, embezzlement,
fraud, these are all characteristics which exist everywhere. It is regrettably
the way human nature functions, whether we like it or not. What successful
economies do is keep it to a minimum. No one has ever eliminated any of that
stuff.
Alan Greenspan
The big question that gets answered this
week, are we in a growing stock mania correction or in the start of a crash?
Either way, the follow up question is how much damage was done and how
widespread will the contagion be?
We open with Asia playing catch up to America’s
Friday meltdown, and then some. Did the
Super Bowl result just turn 2018 into a down year for US stocks? Superstitious nonsense
perhaps, but do you feel lucky enough to walk under a ladder?
The likely reality is, today’s US stock
market close will determine if we have a crash or merely a correction as money rotates
out of stocks towards bonds. But adding to the contagion fears is the continuing
crash of the Unicorn market, aka cryptocurrencies.
Below, did the Philadelphia Eagles just
finish off stocks?
"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently
high plateau."
Prof. Irving Fisher, Yale economist, autumn 1929.
Global Equity Slump Deepens as Rate Fears Grow: Markets Wrap
By Adam Haigh
Updated on 5 February 2018, 05:13 GMT
Asian equities fell and U.S. stock futures headed lower, extending the
biggest selloff for global stocks in two years as investors adjusted to a surge
in global bond yields.
Shares sank across the region, putting the MSCI Asia Pacific Index on
course for its biggest drop in almost 14 months. S&P 500 Index futures
pared a drop of as much as 0.9 percent, signaling Friday’s rout won’t extend
for another day. Australia’s 10-year bond yield surged as the 10-year Treasury
yield neared 2.87 percent after solid jobs data on Friday showed rising wages.
The yen advanced.
“It’s likely the pullback has further to go as investors adjust to more
Fed tightening than currently assumed,” said Shane Oliver, Sydney-based global
investment strategist at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which oversees about A$179
billion ($141 billion). “The pullback is likely to be just an overdue
correction, with say a 10 percent or so fall, rather than a severe bear market
-- providing the rise in bond yields is not too abrupt and recession is not
imminent in the U.S. with profits continuing to rise.”
The re-pricing of markets has come as investors question whether the
Federal Reserve will keep to a gradual pace of monetary tightening, and whether
it may need to end up boosting interest rates by more than previously expected
in coming years. A higher so-called terminal rate for the Fed’s target implies
higher long-term yields -- raising borrowing costs across the economy.
----Elsewhere,
oil extended declines after U.S. explorers raised the number of rigs drilling
for crude to the most since August. Bitcoin dipped below $8,000.
Here are some key events scheduled for this week:
- Monetary policy decisions are due in Australia, Russia, India, Brazil, Poland, Romania, the U.K., New Zealand, Serbia, Peru, and the Philippines.
- Earnings season continues with reports from Bristol-Myers Squibb, Ryanair, Toyota Motor Corp., BNP Paribas, BP, General Motors, Walt Disney, SoftBank, Sanofi, Philip Morris, Total, Tesla, Rio Tinto, L’Oreal and Twitter.
- Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and New York Fed President William Dudley are among policy officials due to speak in New York.
More
February 5, 2018 / 5:44 AM
China's Leshi says $890 million of debts due this year, shares drop 10 percent
HONG KONG (Reuters) - China’s Leshi Internet 300104.SZ said about 5.62
billion yuan (£630 million) of its debts would be due by the end of this year,
or almost two-thirds of the company’s total loans and liabilities, sending its
shares down for a ninth day.
This is the first time the video-streaming firm - which is battling the
fallout from a severe cash crunch at its founder Jia Yueting’s embattled
technology conglomerate LeEco - has provided an estimate for its debt in 2018.
Earlier, the company had said that a part of its total loans and
financial liabilities of 9.29 billion yuan ($1.5 billion)would be due this
year, without giving any further details.
Leshi shares plunged by the daily limit of 10 percent on Monday. Nine
days of declines, since the stock resumed trading in January after a nine-month
suspension, have knocked 37.5 billion yuan off the company’s market
capitalisation, that is currently at 23.7 billion yuan.
At its peak in 2015, Leshi was valued at 153 billion yuan.
Just last week, Leshi flagged that it expected a loss of 11.6 billion
yuan for 2017, more than five times its combined profits since listing on the
Shenzhen stock exchange in 2010, due to the ongoing crisis at LeEco.
LeEco was once China’s Netflix-to-Tesla contender but ran into a cash
crunch since late 2016 after expanding too fast. Leshi used to be the main
listed unit of the conglomerate.
But under the control of property developer Sunac China (1918.HK) - its second-largest shareholder, Leshi is now trying to distance itself from the LeEco brand.
Leshi says its largest shareholder Jia and related LeEco units owe it 7.5 billion yuan. LeEco disputes the figure.
Shares of Sunac plunged as much as 6 percent, lagging a nearly 2 percent fall for the benchmark index .HSI.
How Spiking Bond Yields Could Topple a Stock Market Rally
By Elena Popina
Updated on 4 February 2018, 23:24 GMT
You may have heard: bond yields are surging. It’s sowing extreme angst in
U.S. equities, which last week fell the most in two years.And though the tumble in the S&P 500 may be nothing but a breather, concern is mounting that the Treasury market’s travails are becoming an inescapable portent for stocks. Selling resumed Sunday night as index futures opened lower, a week after yields on 10-year Treasuries climbed to a four-year high of 2.84 percent. Here are some thoughts on why that can be bad for equities.
Earnings Yield
A major selling point for equities since the financial crisis has been the higher yield of equities versus fixed income, with earnings considered the “yield” of a share of stock. The S&P 500’s annual profits are currently about 4.3 percent of the index’s price. While not everyone is in love with the comparison, many investors feel safe when that number is comfortably above Treasury rates -- which it is, by about 1.5 percentage points. Still, the rise in bond yields has narrowed the spread to the smallest in eight years.----Again, the comparison, a version of something known as the Fed model, isn’t unanimously embraced by professionals. While viewed by many as a handy way of gauging relative value, corporate earnings and bond yields aren’t the same -- they move with different volatility and different sensitivity to inflation. Still, this concept is usually in the background when people wonder about the staying power of a bull market, one that has gone for almost nine years with nary a peep out of Treasuries.
“The simplest way to look at it is, everything is relative. If you think about it, if bond yields go higher, they offer more of a reward,” said Chris Harvey, Wells Fargo & Co.’s head of equity strategy. “At the margin, the buyer, the asset owner, is slightly enticed to put more money into fixed income than into the equity market.”
More
In cryptocurrency
news, would the last one out of Unicorn mania please turn out the lights. Once
again the question here is how much damage was done, and how far will the
contagion spread?
"I
wasn't worth two cents two years ago, and now I owe $2 million dollars."
Mark
Twain quip.
February 4, 2018 / 11:11 PM
Lloyds Bank to ban credit card owners from buying cryptocurrencies
(Reuters) - Lloyds Banking Group Plc said on Sunday it would
ban its credit card customers from buying Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
”Across Lloyds Bank, Bank of Scotland, Halifax and MBNA, we
do not accept credit card transactions involving the purchase of
cryptocurrencies,” a company spokeswoman said in an email.
Britain’s biggest mortgage lender will ban its credit card customers
from buying Bitcoin amid fears that they could run up huge losses, the
Telegraph reported earlier on Sunday.
The company will block any attempts to buy Bitcoin with a credit card
starting on Monday, but digital currencies could be purchased with debit cards,
the newspaper said.
Credit card customers of the bank will be blocked from buying Bitcoin
online through a blacklist that will flag sellers, according to the Telegraph.
The company fears that credit card owners will buy Bitcoin hoping to
make a profit when its value goes up, but will be laden with debt if its price
falls, the paper reported.
British Prime Minister Theresa May has said Britain should take a
serious look at digital currencies such as Bitcoin because of the way they can
be used by criminals.
Digital currencies plunged on Friday, with Bitcoin at one point sliding
below $8,000 and headed for its biggest weekly loss since December 2013, amid
worries about a global regulatory clampdown.
Bitcoin Ban Expands Across Credit Cards as Big U.S. Banks Recoil
Jenny Surane and Laura J. Keller
2 February 2018, 19:32 GMT Updated
on 3 February 2018, 08:09 GMT
A growing number of big U.S. credit-card issuers are deciding they don’t
want to finance a falling knife.JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. said they’re halting purchases of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on their credit cards. JPMorgan, enacting the ban Saturday, doesn’t want the credit risk associated with the transactions, company spokeswoman Mary Jane Rogers said.
Bank of America started declining credit card transactions with known crypto exchanges on Friday. The policy applies to all personal and business credit cards, according to a memo. It doesn’t affect debit cards, said company spokeswoman Betty Riess.
And late Friday, Citigroup said it too will halt purchases of cryptocurrencies on its credit cards. “We will continue to review our policy as this market evolves,” company spokeswoman Jennifer Bombardier said.
Allowing
purchases of cryptocurrencies can create big headaches for lenders, which can
be left on the hook if a borrower bets wrong and can’t repay. There’s also the
risk that thieves will abuse cards that were purloined or based on stolen identities,
turning them into crypto hoards. Banks also are required by regulators to
monitor customer transactions for signs of money laundering -- which isn’t as
easy once dollars are converted into digital coins.
Bitcoin has lost more than half its value since Dec. 18, falling below $8,000 on Friday for the first time since November. The drop occurred amid escalating regulatory threats around the world, fear of price manipulation and Facebook Inc.’s ban on ads for cryptocurrencies and initial coin offerings.
Now, cutting off card purchases could exacerbate those pressures by making it more difficult for enthusiasts to buy into the market. Capital One Financial Corp. and Discover Financial Services previously said they aren’t supporting the transactions.
Mastercard Inc. said this week that cross-border volumes on its network -- a measure of customer spending abroad -- have risen 22 percent this year, fueled partly by clients using their cards to buy digital currencies. The firm warned that the trend already was beginning to slow as cryptocurrency prices fell.
More
Opinion: Why these early retirees won’t touch bitcoin or other cryptos — and neither should you
Published: Feb 4, 2018 7:49 a.m. ET
As early retirees, the question we’ve started getting more than any other,
from people who are pros at investing to folks who want to start from scratch
is, “Should I buy bitcoin? You guys own bitcoin, right?”Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been getting a lot more news lately as valuations have skyrocketed and plummeted, and people who don’t normally pay attention to niche tech things are digging into concepts like what a blockchain is. (We also suspect that some of our colleagues think we were able to pull off this whole early retirement thing by striking it big with bitcoin BTCUSD, -7.63% Nope.)
We don’t buy bitcoin or any cryptocurrency. And, frankly, if you care about your own financial security, we don’t think you should either.
Quick refresher on bitcoin and cryptocurrency
If you need a primer on bitcoin or cryptocurrencies generally, here are some good ones:
• New York Times
• New York Magazine
• Telegraph UK
• Ars Technica
More
Finance
is wholly different from the rest the economy.
Alan Greenspan
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Finally, we aren’t
half as smart as we think we are when it comes to artificial intelligence and
robotics. “This is your pilot speaking, though you’re cruising at 30,000 feet
over the Atlantic, I’m speaking to you from zero feet in Phoenix Arizona. Have
a nice day.”
What If Self-Driving Cars Can’t See Stop Signs?
Artificial intelligence
is still too easily tricked to be trusted.
by Mark
Buchanan 2 February 2018, 07:00 GMT
For all its impressive progress in mastering human tasks, artificial
intelligence has an embarrassing secret: It’s surprisingly easy to fool. This
could be a big problem as it takes on greater responsibility for people’s lives
and livelihoods.Thanks to advances in neural networks and “deep learning,” computer algorithms can now beat the best human players at games like Go, or recognize animals and objects from photos. In the foreseeable future, they’re likely to take over all sorts of mundane tasks, from driving people to work to managing investments. Being less prone than humans to error, they might also handle sensitive tasks such as air traffic control or scanning luggage for explosives.
But in recent years, computer scientists have stumbled onto some troubling vulnerabilities. Subtle changes to an image, so insignificant that no human would even notice, can make an algorithm see something that isn't there. It might perceive machine guns laid on a table as a helicopter, or a tabby cat as guacamole. Initially, researchers needed to be intimately familiar with an algorithm to construct such "adversarial examples." Lately, though, they’ve figured out how to do it without any inside knowledge.
Speech recognition algorithms are similarly vulnerable. On his web site, computer scientist Nicholas Carlini offers some alarming examples: A tiny distortion of a four second audio sample of Verdi's Requiem induces Google's speech recognition system to transcribe it as "Okay Google, browse to Evil.com." Human ears don't even notice the difference. By tailoring the noise slightly, Carlini says, it's easy to make Google transcribe a bit of spoken language as anything you like, no matter how seemingly different.
It’s not hard to imagine how such tricks could be used to nefarious ends. Surveillance cameras could be fooled into identifying the wrong person – indeed, any desired person – as a criminal. Indistinguishable changes to a “Stop” sign could make computers in a self-driving car read it as “Speed Limit 80.” Innocuous-sounding music could hack into nearby phones and deliver commands to send texts or emails containing sensitive information.
There’s no easy fix. Researchers have yet to devise a successful defense strategy. Even the lesser goal of helping algorithms identify adversarial examples (rather than outsmart them) has proven elusive. In recent work, Carlini and David Wagner, both at the University of California, Berkeley, tested ten detection schemes proposed over the past year and found that they could all be evaded. In its current form, artificial intelligence just seems remarkably fragile.
Until a solution can be found,
people will have to be very cautious in transferring power and responsibilities
to smart machines. In an interview, Carlini suggested that further research
could help us know where, when and how we can deploy algorithms safely, and
also tell us about the non-AI patches we may need to keep them safe.
Self-driving cars might need restrictions enforced by other sensors that could,
for example, stop them from running into an object, regardless of what the onboard
camera thinks it sees.
The good news is that
scientists have identified the risk in time, before humans have started relying
too much on artificial intelligence. If engineers pay attention, we might at
least be able to keep the technology from doing completely crazy things.
Tesla Model S reportedly on Autopilot crashes into fire truck at 65 mph, no injury
Fred
Lambert - Jan. 22nd 2018 5:33 pm ET
Earlier today in Culver City,
California, a Tesla Model S rear-ended a fire truck at a reported speed of 65
mph while the vehicle was on Autopilot, according to the driver.
Remarkably, no one was injured
in the accident even though the Model S’ front-end embedded itself deep under
the truck as seen in pictures below.
The Culver City Fire Department
reported the accident on Twitter earlier today and used the hashtag
“distracteddriving”. They said that it happened while they were already working
on a freeway accident on the 405.
The firefighters are the ones
who reported that the driver claimed his Model S was on Autopilot during the
accident:
In response to a request for
comment, a Tesla spokesperson didn’t address the specific accident, but they
pointed out that Autopilot requires the attention of the driver:
“Autopilot is intended for use
only with a fully attentive driver.”
The fire truck had some
damage to its rear and the Model S’ front-end was completely destroyed, but it
apparently didn’t reach the cabin.
The Model S is known to be amongst the safest cars when it comes to
front-end collision due to its large crumple zone. The lack of engine at the
front serves to absorb the energy in the instance of a crash instead of pushing
on the cabin.We have seen many examples of important accidents that amazingly didn’t result in severe injuries, like a spectacular Tesla Model S crash after flying 82+ft in the air, which also showed the importance of a large crumple zone.
More
"Under capitalism
man exploits man; under socialism the reverse is true."
Polish saying under communism.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
February 2, 2018 / 6:05 AM
Exclusive: How Tesla's first truck charging stations will be built
SEATTLE
(Reuters) - Elon Musk, the chief executive of Tesla Inc, has said little about
how he plans to turn his prototype electric truck into reality.
But Reuters has learned that Tesla is collaborating with Anheuser-Busch,
PepsiCo and United Parcel Service Inc to build on-site charging terminals at
their facilities as part of the automaker’s efforts to roll out the vehicle
next year.
Details of the partnerships, which have not been disclosed previously,
are still being hammered out, but include design and engineering from Tesla,
the companies said. They declined to disclose what portion of the building
costs, if any, Tesla would pay, or whether Tesla would be compensated for its
work.
The firms are among nine major corporations that have placed pre-orders
for Tesla’s truck, dubbed the Semi.
With questions swirling over whether Tesla can make good on its
aggressive timetable, news of the collaboration is a sign that corporate
customers are taking the effort seriously, and that Tesla is working to solve
one of the biggest impediments: keeping the big-rigs powered.
Companies that spoke with Reuters said the first step is to install
charging equipment on their own premises. The Semis would be limited to routes
that would get them back to home base before the batteries are spent, the firms
said.
PepsiCo, which has reserved 100 Tesla trucks, said it may eventually
explore sharing facilities and costs with other companies. The food
conglomerate has held multiple meetings with Tesla to discuss the recharging
effort, said PepsiCo executive Mike O‘Connell.
“We have a lot of in-house capability around energy and engineering ...
and certainly Tesla brings their expertise to the table on energy and
charging,” said O‘Connell, senior director of supply chain for Frito-Lay North
America, PepsiCo’s snack-food unit.
Separately, in a high-tech twist on the traditional truck stop, Tesla is
moving ahead with plans for its own stations to sell electricity to truckers
who pull up for a charge, according to customers and transportation industry
executives who have discussed the matter with the Silicon Valley automaker.
Tesla already operates more than 1,100 “supercharger” stations globally
for drivers of its passenger cars. Musk has spoken publicly of doing something
similar for its heavy-duty trucks by installing a network of solar-powered
“megachargers” that could juice up a Semi battery in 30 minutes.
But just how quickly Tesla could build a robust network of electric
filling stations for commercial truckers is not clear. The company is already
stretched thin and burning cash. Tesla has struggled to ramp up production of
its new Model 3 sedan, which has been plagued by delays. Some analysts and
trucking executives doubt that Tesla can deliver the Semi in 2019, much less a
vast charging infrastructure to support it.
A Tesla spokeswoman confirmed that the Fremont, California-based company
is working closely with large customers to build Semi charging stations. She
declined to comment further on the arrangements or Tesla’s plans for its own
truck-charging terminals.
Anheuser-Busch is evaluating installing its own charging equipment for
its 40 Tesla Semis at large breweries and other key locations, according to
James Sembrot, senior director of supply chain for the St. Louis-based beer
maker.
More
"Left-wing
zealots have often been prepared to ride roughshod over due process and basic
considerations of fairness when they think they can get away with it. For them
the ends always seems to justify the means. That is precisely how their
predecessors came to create the gulag."
Margaret
Thatcher
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January
DJIA: 26,149 +282 Up. NASDAQ: 7,411 +310 Up. SP500: 2,824 +212 Up.
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