Saturday, 10 February 2018

Weekend Update 10/02/2018 Stocks, Screw Up or Signal?



In central banking as in diplomacy, style, conservative tailoring, and an easy association with the affluent count greatly and results far much less.

John Kenneth Galbraith

Did the Fed’s Plunge Protection Team screw up on Thursday’s close, or did they send a signal that things have changed, and that the Fed is finally ready and willing to allow for a correction in the US stock market?  The PPT generally stabilises the final hour’s trading, usually via the S&P futures contracts, so was Thursday a signal or did someone merely bungle the close? Is it still “buy the dip,” or has the game changed at the central banks?

Either way, it was carnage, fear and uncertainty, coupled with massive paper wealth destruction across the planet. Though the central banksters managed to prevent a Black Friday in US stocks, the wealth destruction let loose in the system has hardly begun to play out. The next Lehman just took a giant leap closer, but where? America, China, or Europe?

Below, when rigged central banksterism fails, even the one percent get taken to the cleaners.

It’s morally wrong to let a sucker keep his money.

Ebenezer Squid, with apologies to W. C. Fields.

Dow bounces more than 300 points Friday, but still posts worst week in 2 years

  • The Dow Jones industrial average swung more than 1000 points in volatile trading Friday.
  • The Dow and the S&P 500 both ended the week 5.2 percent lower, their worst performance since January 2016.
  • The Dow average experienced two drops of more than 1,000 points and two gains of more than 300 points during this volatile week.

Worst Week in 2 Years for Stocks Ends on High Note: Markets Wrap

By Sarah Ponczek and Randall Jensen
Updated on 9 February 2018, 21:21 GMT
U.S. equities ended their worst week in two years on a positive note, but rate-hike fears that pushed markets into a correction remain as investors await American inflation figures on Feb. 14.

The S&P 500 tumbled 5.2 percent in the week, its steepest slide since January 2016, jolting equity markets from an unprecedented stretch of calm. At one point, stocks fell 12 percent from the latest highs, before a furious rally Friday left the equity benchmark 1.5 percent higher on the day. Still, the selloff has wiped out gains for the year.

Signs mounted that jitters spread to other assets, with measures of market unrest pushing higher in junk bonds, emerging-market equities and Treasuries. The Cboe Volatility Index ended at 29, almost three times higher than its level Jan. 26. . The VIX’s bond-market cousin reached its highest since April during the week, and a measure of currency volatility spiked to levels last seen almost a year ago.

Pressure on equities came from the Treasury market, where yields spiked to a four-year high, raising concern the Federal Reserve would accelerate its rate-hike schedule. Yields ended the week at 2.85 percent, near where they started, as Treasuries moved higher when equity selling reached its most frantic levels. Commodities including oil, gold and industrial metals moved lower Friday. The dollar, euro and sterling all declined.

Traders are now focusing on next week’s U.S. consumer-price data after a week in which the 10-year yield pushed as high as 2.88 percent. Equity investors took the signal to mean interest rates will rise as inflation gathers pace, denting earnings and consumers’ spending power.
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February 9, 2018 / 12:26 AM

U.S. stocks end bumpy week up sharply; oil prices drop three percent

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended with a more than 1 percent gain on Friday after another session of whipsaw trading, though the Dow and S&P 500 posted their biggest weekly losses since January 2016.

“I don’t see any reason to think that we’re setting a pattern for next week or the rest of the year. The only pattern we’re setting is more volatility,” said Rob Stein, chief executive officer of Astor Investment Management in Chicago.

The Dow had a more than 1,000-point difference between its high and low. Wall Street’s fear gauge, the Cboe Volatility Index, also known as the VIX .VIX, ended lower on the day but it remained well above its recent trading range.

Benchmark 10-year note yields closed a volatile week little changed as stocks gained and investors were likely wary of holding positions over the weekend. Oil prices fell more than 3 percent.

----European shares fell 5.3 percent for the week, their biggest weekly drop since January 2016, and an index of world stocks also suffered its largest weekly percentage drop since January 2016. It was barely higher on Friday.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index .FTEU3 lost 1.40 percent and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe .MIWD00000PUS gained 0.04 percent.

Emerging market stocks lost 1.74 percent.

Earlier, the Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC tumbled as much as 6.0 percent to its lowest since May 2017, and the blue chip CSI300 index .CSI300 dived 6.1 percent.
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Stock and bond investors are now paying the price for the Fed’s dangerous experiment

Thu, 02/08/2018
The Federal Reserve’s changing of the guard — the end of the Janet Yellen’s tenure and the beginning of the Jerome Powell era — has me remembering what it was like to grow up in the former Soviet Union.
Back then, our local grocery store had two types of sugar: The cheap one was priced at 96 kopecks (Russian cents) a kilo and the expensive one at 104 kopecks. I vividly remember these prices because they didn’t change for a decade. The prices were not set by sugar supply and demand but were determined by a well-meaning bureaucrat (who may even have been an economist) a thousand miles away.
If all Russian housewives (and house-husbands) had decided to go on an apple pie diet and started baking pies for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, sugar demand would have increased but the prices still would have been 96 and 104 kopecks. As a result, we would have had a shortage of sugar — a common occurrence in the Soviet era.
In a capitalist economy, the invisible hand serves a very important but underappreciated role: It is a signaling mechanism that helps balance supply and demand. High demand leads to higher prices, telegraphing suppliers that they’ll make more money if they produce extra goods. Additional supply lowers prices, bringing them to a new equilibrium. This is how prices are set for millions of goods globally on a daily basis in free-market economies.
In the command-and-control economy of the Soviet Union, the prices of goods often had little to do with supply and demand but were instead typically used as a political tool. This in part is why the Soviet economy failed — to make good decisions you need good data, and if price carries no data, it is hard to make good business decisions.
When I left Soviet Russia in 1991, I thought I would never see a command-and-control economy again. I was wrong. Over the past decade the global economy has started to resemble one, as well-meaning economists running central banks have been setting the price for the most important commodity in the world: money.
Interest rates are the price of money, and the daily decisions of billions of people and their corporations and governments should determine them. Like the price of sugar in Soviet Russia, interest rates today have little to do with supply and demand (and thus have zero signaling value).
For instance, if the Federal Reserve hadn’t bought more than $2 trillion of U.S. debt by late 2014, when U.S. government debt crossed the $17 trillion mark, interest rates might have started to go up and our budget deficit would have increased and forced politicians to cut government spending. But the opposite has happened: As our debt pile has grown, the government’s cost of borrowing has declined.
The consequences of well-meaning (but not all-knowing) economists setting the cost of money are widespread, from the inflation of asset prices to encouraging companies to spend on projects they shouldn’t. But we really don’t know the second-, third-, and fourth derivatives of the consequences that command-control interest rates will bring. We know that most likely every market participant was forced to take on more risk in recent years, but we don’t know how much more because we don’t know the price of money.

Quantitative easing: These two seemingly harmless words have mutated the DNA of the global economy. Interest rates heavily influence currency exchange rates. Anticipation of QE by the European Union caused the price of the Swiss franc to jump 15% in one day in January 2015, and the Swiss economy has been crippled ever since.

Americans have a healthy distrust of their politicians. We expect our politicians to be corrupt. We don’t worship our leaders (only the dead ones). The U.S. Constitution is full of checks and balances to make sure that when (often not if) the opium of power goes to a politician’s head, the damage he or she can do to society is limited.

Unfortunately, we don’t share the same distrust for economists and central bankers. It’s hard to say exactly why. Maybe we are in awe of their Ph.D.s. Or maybe it’s because they sound really smart and at the same time make us feel dumber than a toaster when they use big terms like “aggregate demand.” For whatever reason, we think they possess foresight and the powers of Marvel superheroes.
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So, Goldman is a serial arsonist that has turned betting against its clients' interests into a science. The Times article makes it clear that shorting subprime and luring gullible investors into the trap, was standard operating procedure. Goldman's CEO Lloyd Blankfein dismisses the criticism with a wave of the hand saying, "They were sophisticated investors," which is the same as saying "buyer beware".

It's worth noting that shorting subprimes exacerbated the pain in housing by creating incentives for originators to issue more mortgages to people with poor credit. This prolonged the housing boom and deepened the recession when the bubble finally burst. The eventual downturn was largely engineered by Wall Street.
http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney04192010.html

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