The Wait.

Baltic Dry Index. 1200 -22     Brent Crude 52.44

The statesman who should attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals, would not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it.

Adam Smith. The Wealth of Nations, 1776. Operative.

Today, and probably this weekend, it’s all about what the Fed’s central banksters and cronies, do and say at the Fed’s annual fly fishing junket in Jackson Hole Wyoming. Of course, no one actually goes there for the fishing. They go there to try to rig the markets and currencies for the next several months, till they all meet up again in Davos Switzerland, to try rigging again, fixing what went wrong with the Jackson Hole rig. Later in 2018, they all meet up again at the secretive Bilderberger meeting, to ask what the hell just happened and what are we all going to do about it?

It’s what passes for capitalism, under the Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money, communist money, that set off the world’s greatest leveraged, financialised gambling bubble economy, that keeps breaking down regularly, requiring all these rigs and fixes, that never seem to work as the central banksters expected. But it all seems to work out just fine for the world’s one percenters, leaving everyone else scrambling around in the dust. Our world is rapidly heading for a Bernie Sanders, Bepe Grillo, Martin Schulz, Comrade Corbyn New Communist Labour Party, future, unless we soon get back to making 21^st century capitalism work for all and not just rent-seeking, leveraged, derivatives, gambling banksters.

Don’t expect a miracle at Jackson Hole.

In central banking as in diplomacy, style, conservative tailoring, and an easy association with the affluent count greatly and results far much less.

John Kenneth Galbraith. Operative.

Caution Rules Asian Markets as Central Banks Meet: Markets Wrap

By Andreea Papuc

24 August 2017, 23:25 GMT+1 25 August 2017, 04:46 GMT+1

Asian stocks were mixed, with gauges in Japan rising, and Australian bonds fell as investors await comments from central bankers meeting at Jackson Hole and as political wrangling continues in Washington.

Equity benchmarks rose in Korea, Hong and Shanghai, and fluctuated in Sydney. Automakers lifted Japanese shares as the yen was headed for its worst weekly loss in almost two months. The dollar held onto gains against most peers. Crude traded below $48 a barrel as a storm strengthened into a hurricane aimed at Texas.

In a week when traders had little to go on and the northern summer kept volumes suppressed, equity markets held in tight ranges as investors focused on the forum in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Though European Central Bank President Mario Draghi isn’t expected to offer a fresh policy message, his speech and that of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Friday will be parsed for clues on the timing of reductions in stimulus. Two Fed officials offered opposing views Thursday on the inflation debate. Kansas City’s Esther George said another rate hike is feasible this year if U.S. data holds up. Dallas’s Robert Kaplan called for patience in waiting for prices to go higher.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump took to Twitter to fuel the debate on legislation to keep the U.S. government open next month. Trump blasted Republican leaders for ignoring his advice on raising the debt ceiling and creating a “mess.” Countering, House Speaker Paul Ryan said the borrowing limit will be raised. Rates on short-term Treasury bills spiked amid concern Congress and the White House may not act in time.
Among other key events looming this week:

• Among economic releases on Friday in Asia, Singapore reports industrial output and Thailand details foreign-exchange reserves.
• Japan’s key measure of price changes rose every so slightly in July, highlighting the central bank’s struggle to spur inflation. Core consumer prices, excluding fresh food, quickened to 0.5 percent from 0.4 percent.
• Judges in Seoul deliver their verdict in the graft trial of Samsung heir Jay Y. Lee.
• Indian markets are closed for a holiday.
• Yellen is scheduled to discuss financial stability at 10 a.m. New York time on Friday at the Kansas City Fed’s symposium in Jackson Hole. Draghi is set to speak at 3 p.m.

More

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-24/caution-to-rule-asia-markets-as-central-banks-meet-markets-wrap

August 24, 2017 / 12:44 PM

Wall Street edges lower with Jackson Hole meeting in focus

Reuters) - U.S. stocks dipped on Thursday as political uncertainty in Washington kept investors cautious ahead of comments on monetary policy from central bankers gathered for their annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Speeches by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Friday will be scrutinized for hints on the path of monetary policy, but neither of them is expected to give fresh guidance.

The focus on central bankers’ views will be a departure from the past two weeks, when the stock market was roiled by concerns over geopolitics, mayhem in Washington, and President Donald Trump’s controversial comments.

---- “There are two stories that play out in Washington these days and to a degree it does impact the market - can the President have any success with the overall Washington agenda, whether it is the debt ceiling or tax reform - so far it seems like that is not going to be simple,” said Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenberg Thalmann Asset Management in New York.

“On the other side, there really is a necessity to see some tax reform to help the greater economy.”

Recent economic data painted a mixed picture. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose less than expected last week, while home resales unexpectedly fell in July to their lowest monthly level of the year.

More

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUKKCN1B41CT

August 24, 2017 / 9:15 PM

Low world inflation dogs central bankers, even as economies grow

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. (Reuters) - The world’s top central bankers gather in Jackson Hole, their confidence bolstered by a sustained return to economic growth that may eventually allow the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan to follow the Federal Reserve in winding down their crisis-era policies.

Yet in one key area, none of the world’s central banks has found the answer. Inflation remains well below their two percent targets, stoking a debate about whether they are missing signals of a less than healthy economy and the need for a slower path of “rate normalization”, or that they simply don’t understand how inflation works in a globalized world.

In Japan, officials have researched behavioral causes, wondering whether businesses and families are just slower to react to economic signals than thought. European officials have blamed slow-moving union wage contracts and online shopping, while U.S. policymakers have cited a lengthy sequence of “one-offs” in pricing from oil to cellphones to prescription drugs.

In each case the response of policymakers has been the same: wait it out and talk confidently about inflation’s return, as the Fed has put it since 2013, over “the medium term”.

“Yes, our models aren’t perfect... Certainly the fact that we have had some low inflation readings is something that we take very seriously,” said Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester.

Yet Mester is convinced the problem is not a weakening economy, but changes in how businesses set prices - a supply side issue she says leaves her comfortable pressing ahead with slow but steady interest rate increases.

Not everyone is convinced by Mester’s approach. Concerns over the significance of a recent slide in inflation have renewed questions about whether a global tightening of monetary policy can proceed, with U.S. investors betting the Fed will have to hold off on more rate changes until later next year.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will have a chance to address the issue on Friday, as does European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who is laying plans to scale back some of the bank’s crisis-era programs even as expected progress on inflation has receded into 2018 and 2019.

The Bank of Japan’s horizon for meeting its inflation target is around 2020.

More

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-inflation-idUKKCN1B42JL

And while we await news from the big central bankster pow-wow and market rig in Wyoming, in other disturbing news:

Germany’s ‘Diesel Fear’ Leaves $5 Billion in Used Cars Gathering Dust

By Elisabeth Behrmann

24 August 2017, 16:25 GMT+1

Germany’s back and forth over potential bans for diesel cars in cities is sapping demand for the vehicles and causing a backlog of used models on dealer lots that’s swelled to some 4.5 billion euros ($5.3 billion).
A deal earlier this month between Volkswagen AG, Daimler AG and BMW AG to upgrade 5 million newer diesel cars and offer trade-in incentives on older models hasn’t removed concerns about pollution from the technology. Citing government tests, German Environment Minister Barbara Hendricks told reporters on Wednesday that the planned software upgrades are “insufficient” for many cities to meet the legal limit for smog-inducing nitrogen oxides in the air.

As a result of the doubts about diesel’s future, about 300,000 used vehicles fitted with Euro-5 emissions standards, which were on sale as new cars as recently as September 2015, are piling up, according to a survey published Thursday by German car dealer association ZDK. The poll assumed an average price per car of 15,000 euros.

“The vehicles are hard to sell at the moment because customers are uncertain,” Thomas Peckruhn, vice president of the association, said in an emailed statement. “We need clear signals from government if and under what conditions these vehicles might be affected by driving bans.”

---- Reflecting the pressure on demand, some 29 percent of diesel drivers in Germany said they’d try and sell their cars as soon as possible because of concerns about falling values as cities mull driving bans, according to a survey by Deutsche Automobil Treuhand market-research firm. As a result of slow sales, 77 percent of dealers said they had cut prices, the dealer association said.

More

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-24/germany-s-diesel-fear-sees-5-billion-in-used-cars-gather-dust

China's Big Businesses Risk Trump's Punishment Over North Korea

By Bruce Einhorn and Heesu Lee

24 August 2017, 22:00 GMT+1

President Donald Trump’s administration is looking for ways to pressure North Korea to stop developing a nuclear-weapons program, and some American analysts warn that the search may end on the doorsteps of China’s biggest oil companies and banks.

China is North Korea’s largest trading partner, playing a vital role in keeping Kim Jong Un’s regime afloat. Two-way trade increased about 11 percent to $2.55 billion in the first half of 2017, compared with a year earlier.

The U.S. successfully lobbied for stricter UN sanctions against North Korea this month, and the Treasury Department on Aug. 22 sanctioned Chinese and Russian entities it accused of assisting Kim’s development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. U.S. prosecutors also want to recover $11 million from companies based in China and Singapore that they accused of conspiring with North Korea to evade sanctions.

So far, the U.S. is seeking to punish relatively minor companies such as Dandong Chengtai Trading Ltd., which is accused of laundering money for North Korea. But there’s reason for Chinese officials to worry that the America may go after major state-owned enterprises and banks, such as China National Petroleum Corp. and Bank of China.

“We have the ability to say, ‘Any Chinese SOE that we consider relevant is fair game,”’ said Derek Scissors, resident scholar at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “We haven’t even gotten close to the economic coercion we’re capable of.”

More

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-24/china-s-big-businesses-risk-trump-s-punishment-over-north-korea

August 25, 2017 / 4:56 AM

Japan's defence chief says Tokyo expressed concern to Beijing over bomber flight

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan’s defence minister said Tokyo had expressed its concern to Beijing after a flight of Chinese bombers flew close to its territory on Thursday.

“It was the first time we have recorded Chinese military aircraft flying this route,” Minister of Defence Itsunori Onodera said during a regular press briefing on Friday. “We expressed our concern through diplomatic channels,” he added.

Six bombers flying from the East China Sea passed close to Japanese territory on route to the Pacific Ocean. They did not enter Japanese airspace but it was the first time the Chinese bombers had flown the route.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-defence-japan-idUKKCN1B50AZ

August 25, 2017 / 1:54 AM

China says nothing will stop its long-range air force drills

BEIJING (Reuters) - No amount of interference or shadowing of its aircraft will stop the Chinese air force from carrying out long-range drills, the defence ministry said, announcing another round of exercises of the type that have unnerved Taiwan and Japan.

The air force carried out further long-range exercises on Thursday, the ministry said late that same day, without giving details of where they happened. Japan said it was concerned about bombers flying close to its territory.

Such “normal” drills accord with international law and practices and are part of an “ordinary need” to raise combat abilities and strengthen the military, it added.

“No matter what obstructions are encountered, the Chinese air force will carry on as before; no matter who flies with us, the Chinese air force will fly a lot and as normal!” the ministry added, citing an air force spokesman.

---- Drills over the past few months have mostly focused on flying near self-ruled Taiwan, claimed by China as its own, and by Japan’s southern island chain to the north of Taiwan.

Taiwan’s military said earlier this month it was on a high state of alert following three straight days of drills by the Chinese air force near it.

China has been increasingly asserting itself in territorial disputes in the South and East China Seas. It is also worried about Taiwan, run by a government China fears is intent on independence.

Beijing has never ruled out the use of force to bring proudly democratic Taiwan under its control, and has warned that any moves towards formal independence could prompt an armed response.

more

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-defence-idUKKCN1B5031

August 24, 2017 / 5:42 PM

Market signals big paper loss for Rome after Monte Paschi's bank bailout

MILAN (Reuters) - The Italian government faces a paper loss of more than 30 percent on its 3.85 billion euros ($4.54 billion) rescue of troubled lender Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS.MI), according to grey-market trading in the bank’s new shares.

The world’s oldest lender has not formally traded on the Milan bourse since December when the bank failed to raise enough capital to remove the threat of collapse. In July, Rome bailed it out, paying 6.49 euros per share for a controlling stake.

Traders and fund managers said on Thursday that Monte dei Paschi’s shares were fetching between 4.14 and 4.35 euros in the grey market, where shareholders can sell them over-the-counter ahead of the resumption of trade on the exchange.

Italy’s fourth-largest lender has not set a date for lifting the trade suspension, but says it will be in the autumn. The bank was brought low by years of ill-judged acquisitions and mismanagement.

A price of 4.14 euros would represent a paper loss of about 1.39 billion euros for Rome on the first phase of its bailout. It has pledged to later buy out retail holders of bank bonds for 1.5 billion euros, taking its stake to as much as 70 percent.

The government, though, has said it plans to hold its shares with a long-term aim of making a profit on its investment.

However, some institutional investors are already looking to sell their stock on the grey market, hedging 
against the risk that its value could sink even further ahead of resumed trade.

More

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eurozone-banks-italy-monte-dei-paschi-idUKKCN1B423C

It is the great multiplication of the productions of all the different arts, in consequence of the division of labour, which occasions, in a well-governed society, that universal opulence which extends itself to the lowest ranks of the people.

Adam Smith. The Wealth of Nations, 1776. Inoperative, after the Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money, communist money, August 15, 1971, triggered the Great Leveraged Gambling Economy, that crashed and burned, 2008.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, a different kind of crooks and scoundrels. Lotteries, when you’re desperate and you really, really want to get filthy rich fast. The winner has said that she’s going to quit her job, no seriously. As soon as I can get her address, my begging letters will go out.

"I don't want any publicity – you get too many begging letters. If they're anything like the ones I send out I don't want to know!"

Tony Hancock.

Want to win the Powerball? These numbers come up more than others

Published: Aug 23, 2017 8:02 a.m. ET

Statistically they shouldn’t, but they do — make of it what you will

Wednesday’s Powerball jackpot is up to $700 million.

If someone wins, says the Multi-State Lottery Association, it will be the third-largest payout on a lottery in the U.S., and the second-largest Powerball award.

Even when you remember the $700 million gets paid out over 30 years, and that Uncle Sam and your state government will claim a huge chunk, this is still enough to keep you in lattes for life — even at Starbucks SBUX, -0.68%  prices.

Expect a surge in buying ahead of Wednesday’s drawing.

In Powerball, five white balls and one red ball are drawn. The white balls are numbered 1 through 69, and the red, or “power,” ball, 1 through 26.

So you have to guess six numbers. Among the first five, the order doesn’t matter. A ticket costs $2. When you include all the lesser prizes you can win, and factor in the probabilities, by my math a ticket is worth at least $1.

But we’re not counting the entertainment value — and the pleasure of daydreaming for two days about how you’ll spend the money.

The odds of hitting the jackpot are one in 292 million.

Logically, all numbers should be equal. Someone picking 1-2-3-4-5-6 should have no better or worse chance of winning than someone who picks 64-65-66-67-68-26. There shouldn’t be any downside to just letting the machine in your local convenience store pick numbers for you — an option called a Quick Pick.

But in the past couple of years, since the Powerball took its current format, some numbers have come up more than others.

And some have come up a lot more often.

Reason tells me this is just data mining — a statistical fluke, with no predictive power. But if you’re superstitious and believe in patterns, you may take a different view.

Stupid? Sure. But let the record show that when I was in Las Vegas once with one of America’s leading financial news editors, he refused to play on the first three craps tables we passed because they were “running cold.”

So which Powerball numbers have come up most often?

For the white balls, which number from 1 to 69, these 12 numbers have beaten the average by more than one standard deviation: 32, 64, 16, 23, 28, 40, 52, 62, 33, 61, 63 and 69. (They’re ranked in order: Thirty-two has come up 75% more often than it theoretically should have.)

And among the Powerball numbers, which range from 1 to 26, the numbers that have come up most often are 9, 10 and 21. (Nine has come up 84% more often than the statistical average.)

If I were a hedge fund salesman, I could extrapolate those into an impressive presentation of an “investment strategy” for playing the lottery — minus fees, of course!

If you’re a momentum follower, you may want to pick from those numbers. I guarantee, at worst, pure math says they are at least as statistically likely to win as any others!

On the other hand, “value” investors, who believe in the long-term reversion to the mean, may look at the numbers and say: These have outperformed! They are due for a period of underperformance! Tell me the numbers that haven’t come up lately, and which are “due.”

More

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/want-to-win-the-powerball-these-numbers-come-up-more-than-others-2017-08-22?siteid=nwtpm

Here are the winning numbers for Wednesday's record $700 million Powerball

Here are the winning numbers for Wednesday night's Powerball jackpot, which hit $700 million:
6, 7, 16, 23, 26, and Powerball number is 4.

One winning jackpot ticket, worth $759 million, was sold in Watertown, Massachusetts, state lottery spokesman Christian Teja told CNN.

The jackpot is the second-largest in US history. The record was in 2016 for a $1.5 billion jackpot.

---- You'll have a choice to claim your winnings in the form of a lump sum or an annuity. The annuity is a series of 30 annual payments, which increase by 5% each year.

Choosing the lump sum might sound tempting, but do note that you'll get less than the face value of the prize. The current value of the cash payout is $443.3 million.

More

http://uk.businessinsider.com/powerball-winning-numbers-for-august-23-2017-8?r=US&IR=T

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21^st century onwards?

THE TRANSFORMATION(S) OF POWER

Shayle Kann, Head of GTM Research

The power sector is constantly evolving, but rarely in modern history has it seen such rapid change as it faces today. The interaction between technological, economic and political forces is catalyzing what could become the most dramatic transformation of electricity in the past century.

We identify four primary trends shaping and directing this transformation globally. This report briefly outlines each trend, notes its global status, and identifies key questions it invokes across the energy sector. But this is just the beginning; these trends will drive our power and renewables research agenda moving forward. We will compile and analyze data, forecast future developments, and ask difficult questions about how each of these trends might shape the future of power throughout the world.

 Decarbonization – The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector as a response to climate change. This includes the rapid expansion of variable renewable energy, coal-to-gas fuel switching, solutions for intermittency, and the evolution of power market design.

 Decentralization – The transition of the electricity grid from one with primarily centralized

generation and unidirectional power flows to a more dynamic, localized network incorporating a wide array of distributed energy resources (DERs). This includes technology and market development both for electricity customers and utility companies, new distribution grid

hardware and software, and a new regulatory paradigm for the power sector.

 Vehicle Electrification – The global proliferation of electric vehicles. This includes impacts on fuel demand, electricity loads, and power markets. It will necessitate new electricity rate designs and business models, as well as distribution grid planning.

 Energy Access – Bringing modern solutions to the 1.2 billion people globally who remain without access to electricity, and bringing reliable power to the myriad more who face frequent service interruptions. This includes technical solutions ranging from grid extension to microgrids, policy and financing challenges, and impacts on overall energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions.

DECARBONIZATION

Driven by falling costs, increasing investor confidence, and policy support, renewable energy is beginning to transform the global electricity mix. Wind and solar power now consistently account for more than 40% of new generating capacity additions, up from less than 10% through 2005. When hydro power is included, more than half of all new capacity worldwide today comes from renewables.

This trend shows no signs of abating. Solar power costs continue to fall, with power purchase agreements regularly being signed at record-low prices in locations ranging from Mexico ($31/MWh) to the UAE ($29/MWh) to India ($38/MWh).

Offshore and onshore wind are driving rapid cost reductions in Europe and North America. And energy storage is emerging as an enabler of increasing renewable energy penetration.

Wood Mackenzie’s Carbon-Constrained Scenario imagines a future in which solar and wind rise to 30% of global electricity generation by 2035, up from 5% in 2015. Meanwhile, coal’s share will decline by more than 50%, and natural gas generation share will peak in the early 2030s. This scenario portends a future in which power markets will need to adapt to increasing penetration of intermittent generation while maintaining reliability and low costs. It presents a growing need for flexibility on the grid, major roles for grid integration and high-voltage transmission, and strategic questions for incumbent generators.

More

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/four-trends-reshaping-the-power-sector?utm_source=Daily&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=GTMDaily

Another weekend, and the last summer bank holiday here in the UK.  A Jackson Hole Junket weekend for central banksters and their cronies in the USA. What mischief, market rigging, currency rigging misadventures have they in mind for all the rest of us? What mischief will President Trump tweet over the weekend.  One consolation, clouds permitting, we get the evening return of the planet Jupiter in the west. I will no longer have to get up at 5 am to look at the planet Venus in the east. Next Weekend it’s America’s turn to tune out for the Labor Day long weekend, and the unofficial start of the traditional stock market Crash Season. Have a Great Weekend everyone.

People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices…. But though the law cannot hinder people of the same trade from sometimes assembling together, it ought to do nothing to facilitate such assemblies, much less to render them necessary.

Adam Smith. The Wealth of Nations, 1776. Operative in Spades, following The Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money, communist money, August 15, 1971.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished July

DJIA: 21,891 +207 Up. NASDAQ:  6,348 +250 Up. SP500: 2,470 +171 Up.