Wednesday, 30 August 2017

Complacency’s Back.



Baltic Dry Index. 1203 -06     Brent Crude 51.80

There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.

John Kenneth Galbraith.

Harvey, flooded Houston and much of south Texas, a nuclear armed unstable North Korea, who cares? Buy more! Complacency’s back, risk on. For all his bluster, the markets figure President Trump’s bluff has been called. So what if America’s 4th largest city with almost 7 million people is flooded? That’s good for the reconstruction business and the economy, is the latest fake news from Wall Street’s stock pedlars. An enormous error in the making, to this old stock and commodity market dinosaur, actively following markets since 1968.

Death and wealth destruction on a biblical scale in Texas and Louisiana, is not wealth building, or in any way good for the US economy. Having a lame duck US President called out by an unstable, nuclear armed, North Korea, is anything but good for the rest of the world.  President Trump and his allies having blinked, Pyongyang is now far more likely to make a fatal error resulting in war.

Dow industrials just booked the best intraday comeback in 9 months

Published: Aug 29, 2017 7:48 p.m. ET
It isn’t exactly a comeback for the ages, but the market rebound on Tuesday was pretty striking.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.26% booked its best recovery from an intraday low since early December as Wall Street investors appeared to shake off worries centered on increased tensions in the Korean Peninsula.

Read: Stock market shakes off geopolitical tensions and ends higher

The Dow rose 57.97 points, or 0.3%, at 21,865.37, marking a nearly 200-point swing into positive territory. That marks the best resurgence intraday since Dec. 7, 2016 when it spanned some 320 points before finishing higher, according to WSJ Market Data Group.

Wall Street, overall managed to eke out modest gains, with the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.08% gaining about 0.1% at 2,446.30 and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.30%  closing about 0.3% higher at 6,301.89.

Trading has been marked by seasonally low volumes and mounting worries about a military response to North Korea, which delivered its most provocative ballistic-missile launch in years, flying at least one projectile over Japanese airspace late Monday and drawing widespread rebukes from the U.S. and its Asian neighbors.
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Asian markets rebound, shrugging off North Korea tensions

Published: Aug 29, 2017 11:20 p.m. ET
Asia-Pacific stocks rebounded Wednesday after selling off a day earlier following North Korea’s latest missile launch, as equities in the U.S. recovered as well.

The return to risk assets came despite a stern response from President Donald Trump. His insistence that all options are on table “should have escalated the risk-off” sentiment seen Tuesday, said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street.

Instead, investors seemed to shrug off the geopolitical tension.

Japanese stocks helped lead the way, aided by a near-1% gain in the U.S. dollar versus the yen since the end of stock trading Tuesday. The dollar JPYUSD, -0.039164%   moved back to ¥109.80 after bottoming out yesterday at around ¥108.33, not far from the low for the year.

The Nikkei NIK, +0.61%   was recently up 0.6%, helped by exporters. Auto makers Mitsubishi Motors 7211, +1.27%   and Mazda 7261, +0.85%   were up 1% each and electronics giant Sony 6758, +2.57%   added 2.3%.

While Hong Kong’s Hang Seng HSI, +0.79%   climbed 0.96% and Taiwan’s Taiex Y9999, +0.63%   rose 0.5%, gains were more muted elsewhere, with New Zealand’s benchmark NZ50GR, +0.54%   up 0.2% after dropping 1.1% Tuesday.

Meanwhile, stocks in Australia XJO, +0.11%   and South Korea SEU, +0.05%   were slightly higher. On Tuesday, the Kospi closed down 0.2% after being as much as 1.6% lower earlier in the day.

U.S. economic data showing that growth remains steady and consumer sentiment is upbeat also helped fuel rebounds for stocks in Asia, said Masashi Murata, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.

“The fundamentals remain unchanged so the bounce back has been easier,” he added.
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In Houston, rain finally stops but danger not over yet

Published: Aug 29, 2017 10:50 p.m. ET

‘It’s the end of the beginning’ as Harvey moves east

Flood-ravaged Houston got a bit of good news Tuesday evening: The rain finally stopped.
After five days of record rainfall — more than 50 inches in some places — from now-Tropical Storm Harvey, the sun finally came out Tuesday, and meteorologists said the region would soon get a chance to start drying out.

“It’s the end of the beginning,” National Hurricane Center meteorologist Dennis Feltgen told the Associated Press.

Harvey isn’t done yet, though. The storm is expected to make landfall again Wednesday, bringing torrential rain to parts of east Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee and Missouri, and the threat of potential flooding to those areas.

“We’re not done with this,” Feltgen said. “There’s still an awful lot of real estate and a lot of people who are going to feel the impacts of the storm.”

While showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger Wednesday in Houston, rainfall totals are expected to be less than an inch. A chance of thunderstorms will remain Thursday, but Friday should be dry and warm, according to a National Weather Service forecast.

The NWS warned Tuesday night that danger remains. “As TS Harvey moves east, the weather forecast will improve. Please do NOT go out and sight see! It is still dangerous!” the NWS tweeted, noting that many roads are still underwater, floodwaters are still raging and emergency crews are still actively seeking those trapped.

While the worst of the rain appears to be over, the region is not out of the woods yet, with the risk of river flooding remaining into next week, officials said. And some flooded areas are expected to remain underwater for weeks, if not months.

Officials on Tuesday said more than 13,000 people had been rescued from their homes in the Houston area so far, and more than 17,000 had fled to shelters. Texas officials worry many more people are still trapped in their homes, and the death toll, which officially stands at nine, is expected to rise dramatically once the floodwaters recede.

Morgan Stanley MS, -0.29%   analysts on Tuesday estimated damage would total $30 billion to $40 billion, making it the fourth-worst U.S. storm on record, adjusted for inflation.
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August 28, 2017 / 10:22 PM

U.N. condemns 'outrageous' North Korea missile launch, Pyongyang says more to come

SEOUL/UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - The United Nations condemned North Korea’s “outrageous” firing of a ballistic missile over Japan on Tuesday, demanding Pyongyang halt its weapons programme but holding back on any threat of new sanctions on the isolated regime.

North Korea said the launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) was to counter U.S. and South Korean military drills and was a first step in military action in the Pacific to “contain” the U.S. territory of Guam.

The North’s leader Kim Jong Un ordered the launch to be conducted for the first time from its capital, Pyongyang, and said more exercises with the Pacific as the target were needed, the North’s KCNA news agency said on Wednesday.

“The current ballistic rocket launching drill like a real war is the first step of the military operation of the KPA in the Pacific and a meaningful prelude to containing Guam,” KCNA quoted Kim as saying. The Korean People’s Army or KPA is the North’s military.

Earlier this month, North Korea threatened to fire four missiles into the sea near Guam, home to a major U.S. military presence, after President Donald Trump said the North would face “fire and fury” if it threatened the United States.
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Kim Jong Un Says Latest Missile Test Was 'Prelude' to Containing Guam

By Shinhye Kang
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said the test-firing of a missile over Japan on Tuesday was a "meaningful prelude" to containing the American territory of Guam, adding he will continue to watch the response of the U.S. before deciding on further action.

Kim guided the firing of the intermediate-range strategic ballistic rocket and urged his military to conduct more such launches into the Pacific Ocean in the future, according to a statement from the official Korean Central News Agency.

The missile firing was part of "muscle-flexing" to protest annual military exercises being held between the U.S. and South Korea, KCNA said. North Korea had threatened earlier this month to launch missiles over Japan toward Guam, which prompted warnings of retaliation from American military officials.

It was the first North Korean projectile to fly over Japanese airspace since the regime launched a rocket over Okinawa in 2016, and undermines nascent hopes for dialogue over Kim’s weapons programs. That’s after tensions had appeared to cool following a war of words between U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim earlier this month.
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Opinion: North Korea launch calculated to create political mischief

Published: Aug 29, 2017 1:43 p.m. ET

Kim Jong Un benefits from wedges between China and Japan, South Korea, and U.S.

I had just written up some light summer fare — new academic writing on the North Korean nuclear program! — and news of the Hwasong 12 (probably) launch over Japan comes across the wire.

My bottom line: this launch was perfectly calibrated to create political mischief. Not only does it fly beneath the threshold at which a military response is recognized as absolutely necessary by all three relevant parties, South Korea, the U.S. and Japan. It also drives wedges between Beijing and Seoul, Tokyo and Washington as well because of the natural inclination for the two major allies to strengthen their ties with the U.S.

The only issue is whether Kim Jong Un miscalculated with respect to Trump. My hunch is that the answer is “no”: fire and fury aside, the U.S. will probably not take the taunt and respond militarily, but will try to stay the course of the “peaceful pressure” campaign outlined by Secretary Rex Tillerson (See here and here).

But times like this tempt every North Korea watcher to the dark side. Will someone just take him out already?

Also read: Investors now think central bankers will protect us from nuclear war

First, the basics. After a pause, North Korea resumed testing with three shorter range rockets from the East Coast over the weekend (one blew up, but in missile testing failures also mean learning). The missile that overflew Japan was probably a Hwasong 12 or KN-17, and was launched from Sunan, north of Pyongyang and apparently very near the country’s airport (as usual, Anna Fifield at the Washington Post had the most plugged in early coverage, claiming that U.S. intelligence had monitored the movement of the missile two hours prior to firing).

Let’s take each of the three parties in turn.
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If all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.

John Kenneth Galbraith

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

China, just look at what the US tort bar is missing! They can only look on in envy.

China’s Grocery Trolls Make Giant Piggy Banks of Wal-Mart and Carrefour

A sprawling new Food Safety Law has spawned a cottage industry of professional complainers who sue food manufacturers and retailers over infractions big and small.

24 August 2017, 21:00 GMT+1
-Xue Yanfeng went shopping in a Carrefour SA supermarket in western China in May 2015 and bought 20 bottles of honey for a total of 892 yuan ($134). He then left the supermarket with his groceries and sued the French company. In court filings, Xue alleged the nutritional labels said each 100-gram serving contained 1,326 kilojoules of energy. But, according to his calculations using nutritional data on the label, each serving contained only 1,102.
Xue, who couldn’t be reached for comment, argued that the error violated China’s Food Safety Law, which guaranteed him compensation of 10 times the purchase price. The Xinjiang court agreed, and a week after his purchases it awarded him a refund of 892 yuan and compensation of 8,920 yuan.

That was one of 40 lawsuits Xue has filed against supermarkets and retailers for violating the Food Safety Law since late 2015, when China introduced a strengthened version to tackle the country’s well-publicized food safety woes. The new version removed a clause in the previous law that said victims must prove personal injury or loss to be eligible for compensation. The change has spawned a cottage industry of professional complainers who’ve developed sophisticated operations to challenge food manufacturers and retailers for compensation.

Xue alone has filed cases involving finding raisins with no nutritional labels, potato chips with unlawful additives, biscuits with multiple production dates, and ham and beer being sold after their expiration dates.
His targets include Carrefour, Wal-Mart Stores, and Yonghui Superstores. He’s been awarded 70,033 yuan—twice the average urban household annual income in China—in compensation over the past 18 months, and he settled 18 other cases in which the compensation wasn’t disclosed.

Last year local governments in Guangdong and Jiangxi provinces said as many as 90 percent of all food safety complaints they’ve received are from such plaintiffs. A Beijing court said 80 percent of the food safety-related cases in 2015 were filed by individuals who specialize in finding flaws. “They are the No. 1 problem supermarkets in China are facing now,” says Chu Dong, vice chairman of the China Chainstore & Franchise Association, an industry group. “They are harming not just the retail industry but placing a heavy burden on regulatory and judicial authorities in China and betraying the spirit of the law.”

Professional complainers are a mainstay on the mainland because the nation’s laws guarantee aggrieved buyers a unique degree of protection and compensation. A different statute granting compensation of three times the purchase price to those who buy counterfeit or damaged goods has given rise to professional “fraudbusters” who scour store shelves on the lookout for fakes. Their ranks swelled tenfold after the more generous food safety law came into effect, says Shandong native Wang Hai, who prefers to be called a “food safety informer.” Pending cases he’s filed include complaints about fake alcohol and beef from steroid-injected cattle smuggled from overseas.

“What we do is help to plug a hole in the regulatory framework, because it’s impossible for regulators to catch every manufacturer and retailer infringing the law,” says Wang.
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"Those entrapped by the herd instinct are drowned in the deluges of history. But there are always the few who observe, reason, and take precautions, and thus escape the flood. For these few gold has been the asset of last resort."

Antony C. Sutton
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Collapsible, rotating caravan harnesses solar and wind for efficient off-grid living

C.C. Weiss August 28, 2017
While shows like the Australian 4x4 Expo and Overland Expo highlight tough, no-nonsense trailers and motorhomes ready to get dirty right now, the Düsseldorf Caravan Salon dedicates some space to futuristic campers and technologies. And this year, the Volkswagen California XXL isn't the only such concept camper wowing the crowds. France's Green Cat Technologies has possibly the most head-turning concept at the show with a caravan that folds out into a roomy living space complete with solar and wind power generation. 

The sCarabane even rotates 360 degrees at camp, tracking the sun to generate electricity and hot water.
What looks quite like a permanent, off-grid tiny home when all set up at camp is actually a folding caravan that packs neatly into a 25.6-ft-long (7.8-m-long) wheeled box via fold-down, flip-up and swing-out hardware on both sides. One side features a large outdoor deck with retractable awning, while the other side adds two bedrooms to the central living area.

Green Cat says the sCarabane goes from living to driving form in about 30 minutes, with just one person able to do the work on their own. The caravan serves as more proof that the French are masters of this type of structural compaction, as we've previously witnessed with the Beauer 3X.

While its expansion hardware is impressive, what really drives the sCarabane design is the almost-obsessive focus on green technologies that lies at its very core. Perhaps the most extreme example is the electrical rotation system that spins the caravan 360 degrees to optimize sun exposure and keep light and radiation flowing to the the solar panels and water-heating system. The caravan mounts on a circular track and rotates slowly as needed.

We've seen the concept of a sun-tracking, small-living solution before, albeit on a tiny house, not a caravan. Green Cat has built out a more elaborate solar-harvesting system that includes the collapsible, 65-sq ft (6-sq m) parabolic concentrator mirror on the roof, providing a natural means of heating water for supply to the faucets, shower, washing machine and dishwasher inside. There's also a 500-W solar panel array on the roof.

The sCarabane also takes advantage of the natural light and warmth of the sun. The adjustable bubble window at the far end includes a reflective shade that allows the occupants to adjust the level of natural light and heat. Similarly, a large "rose window" on each bedroom roof features a petal-like array of transparent sections that can be manually adjusted to let in the desired amount of light.

More + pictures
  

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished July

DJIA: 21,891 +207 Up. NASDAQ:  6,348 +250 Up. SP500: 2,470 +171 Up.

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