Friday, 18 August 2017

The Retreat From Moscow.



Baltic Dry Index. 1247 +40     Brent Crude 50.99

“Beyond this, the problem is universal. It is that governments are now held responsible for the welfare of the people. The aspirations of the people can outrun their ability to pay for them, and nobody has yet found a way to create answers to the aspirations out of thin air.”

George Goodman, aka Adam Smith, The Money Game. 1968.

In stocks, its looking more and more like it’s over. The Happy Days Are Here Again, that came in with Donald Trump, are over. Though the die-hard bulls, and those who make a living peddling stocks to suckers are still busy promoting the giant bubble, to this old market dinosaur it has all the feel of a market change. The fizz has gone out of the market, like a left over open bottle of champagne. The Trump turmoil, the North Korean defeat, the Charlottesville riots,  the latest moslem terror attacks in Spain, have all brought reality back to what were very high priced, frothy, stock markets. Can the bulls mount another dead cat bounce to get into crash season proper, or does the Napoleonic retreat from Moscow commence next week?

To this old dinosaur market follower, retreating early beats staying around to watch Moscow catch fire as winter arrives. The markets climbed their wall of worry, goosed by the arrival of President Trump, and free money from the global central banks.  Like it or not, that game is changing. Quantitative tightening is the new game in town, albeit in baby steps, and more next year than this. But QT will likely be around for the next decade, and no one has yet solved the aspirations problem brought up by George Goodman in the Money Game all the way back in 1968.

Below, when the stock markets finally ran out of road and luck?

This is the way things are, and the Game has been so successful that, like everything, it will get more and more successful until it stops being successful.

George Goodman, aka Adam Smith, The Money Game. 1968.

Asia Stocks Drop on Spain Attack, Trump Turmoil: Markets Wrap

By Garfield Clinton Reynolds and Ian C Sayson
Asian stocks extended a global slide after terrorists struck a crowded tourist street in Barcelona, exacerbating unease triggered by mounting concerns about dysfunction in President Donald Trump’s administration and U.S. policy paralysis.

Equities fell from Tokyo to Sydney after the S&P 500 Index on Thursday tumbled 1.5 percent, its second-biggest drop for 2017. Volatility in Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong increased after a measure of market fluctuations spiked higher during U.S. trading, while Australian bonds rose with the yen as investors sought havens.

U.S. stocks declined amid concerns Trump’s stimulus plans are in increasing peril and amid heightened terror fears after at least 13 people died when a van plowed into pedestrians in Barcelona. Speculation surfaced at one point that Gary Cohn, the former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. president who’s Trump’s top economic adviser and has been a figure of assurance to investors in an unorthodox White House, might resign. Markets were calmed temporarily on reports that Cohn, who has been leading efforts on tax reform, would stay.

It’s been a tumultuous week for the administration, with Trump disbanding two advisory councils staffed by chief executive officers and slamming Republican members of Congress who were critical of his polarizing remarks following violence in Virginia. Meanwhile, the terror news was a reminder that geopolitical risks remain a threat, with nerves still raw after last week’s escalation of tensions on the Korean peninsula.
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In another drag on markets, no deal with the EUSSR is better than a bad deal, says the Institute of Economic Affairs.  No deal seems highly probable to me. I don’t believe it’s possible to negotiate with five posturing jealous EU Presidents, and the hostile anti-Brexit foot dragging tag team of Juncker and Barnier.
But even if it were, any deal has to pass a veto yielding committee of a disorganised rump-EU of 27, plus the Belgian Walloonatics, plus a veto yielding European Parliament already miffed at being excluded from the negotiations. There’s more chance of the Republicans repealing Obamacare in the USA than there is of getting a Brexit deal in the EUSSR. Everyone should just plan accordingly.

'No Deal' With EU No Disaster for Post-Brexit U.K., Says Report

By Charlotte Ryan
A U.K. trade deal with the European Union after Brexit is desirable but not essential, the Institute of Economic Affairs said, in support of Prime Minister Theresa May’s repeated assertion that no deal is better than a bad deal.

Britain should walk away from talks on a post-Brexit trade deal if the EU offers bad terms that lead to a protectionist and costly agreement, the IEA, a free-market think tank, said in a report on Friday. Instead, it said the country should trade with the EU under World Trade Organization rules, seeking a policy of zero tariffs while brokering free-trade agreements with major trading partners including the U.S.

“Many people believe that disaster will befall us if we do not forge a deal with the EU,” said Jamie Whyte, research director at the IEA. “In fact, we could unilaterally eliminate all import tariffs, which would give us most of the benefits of trade, and export to the EU under the umbrella of the WTO rules.”

Looming trade discussions are shaping up to be one of the trickiest tasks on the agenda of Brexit negotiators. Britain and its business lobby groups are seeking as “frictionless” as possible commerce with the EU post-Brexit, while EU politicians signal that Britain won’t be able to benefit from the same access once it’s no longer a member.

For now, the talks are in abeyance, with the EU saying it will not discuss a future deal until the issues of citizens’ rights and Britain’s exit bill are resolved. The slow pace of talks so far has stoked fears Britain will leave the EU before trade talks conclude.

The IEA paper comes days after the U.K. released a document on customs which Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s point person on Brexit, derided as a “fantasy.” In a tacit acknowledgment that time is ticking down, Britain is seeking a transition period between Brexit day in March 2019 and the day when new trade arrangements can set in. During that period, the U.K. would leave the EU’s customs Union, allowing it to broker new trade deals with third countries, but customs arrangements with the bloc would be largely unchanged.
Trade will not stop after Brexit even if the two sides fail to agree to a deal, the IEA said. Instead, the exchange of goods would continue under WTO rules, which would prevent the EU from charging punitive taxes on goods, while tariffs would hurt EU consumers, according to the policy analyst. It recommended that Britain unilaterally get rid of such duties with trade partners including Europe, while encouraging them to do the same.
----- The U.K. should pursue its own trade policy regardless of “threats” from the EU, the IEA said. The country could seek free-trade agreements with countries such as Canada, Australia and New Zealand and use a tariff-free approach to become a “super-Singapore or super-Dubai.”
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Below, the start of fracking in England and Wales takes a giant leap forwards. Will INEOS commence fracking later this year or wait until 2018? But will the violent left, comply or riot?

INEOS Shale obtains High Court injunctions protecting the public and its people, sites and supply chain

The injunctions prohibit unlawful acts by protestors including trespass and harassment

Any obstruction of INEOS Shale’s business, people or suppliers is now a contempt of court – including slow walks and lock-ons

The injunctions do not interfere with the right to lawful, peaceful protest

INEOS presented the court with extensive evidence of shale protestors involved in intimidation and dangerous direct action, putting themselves and others at risk

Tom Pickering, Operations Director of INEOS Shale said, “We have a duty to do all we can to ensure the safety of everyone on and around our sites, including the protestors themselves. We are also clear that our people and suppliers have the right to come to work free from harassment and intimidation. In these circumstances it was right and responsible to seek these injunctions, and we are pleased that the court has agreed.”

INEOS Shale today secured injunctions at the High Court which will help to ensure safety and protect people on and around its sites. The injunctions also apply to businesses and people across the INEOS Shale supply chain.

Militant activists have a long history of intimidation, threats and dangerous direct action against shale gas companies, including:
  • site occupations
  • intimidation of individuals and companies going about their lawful business
  • threats of violence and physical assaults
  • blockading and shutting down lawful businesses
  • damaging and stealing equipment
  • harassing and goading police officers
INEOS sought legal protection following a recent escalation in activities targeting its operations. Tom Pickering said, “At INEOS we will not stand for intimidation, threats or risks to safety. Today’s High Court Injunctions will protect our sites, our people, our suppliers and the public from the militant activists who try to game the system and cause maximum disruption.” 

The Judge said that INEOS had presented a considerable body of convincing evidence which had persuaded him unlawful action by shale protestors was both imminent and real. He said that if he declined to grant the injunctions that would be a denial of justice for INEOS. The judge said that it was important to recognise that the injunctions do nothing to prevent anyone effectively exercising their right to freedom of expression. He noted that people are free to express their opinions, but not to carry out unlawful acts.
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We close with what’s happening in America today, and in Comrade Corbyn’s Momentum Red Guards GB, tomorrow. Must read articles on why President Trump was right to blame both sides for the violence.

The Rise of the Violent Left

Antifa’s activists say they’re battling burgeoning authoritarianism on the American right. Are they fueling it instead?
Peter Beinart  September 2017 Issue

Why Was This 'Crowd Hire' Company Recruiting $25 An Hour 'Political Activists' In Charlotte Last Week?

Trump ignited a political firestorm yesterday during an impromptu press conference in which he said there was "blame on both sides" for the tragic events that occurred in Charlottesville over the weekend.   

Now, the discovery of a craigslist ad posted last Monday, almost a full week before the Charlottesville protests, is raising new questions over whether paid protesters were sourced by a Los Angeles based "public relations firm specializing in innovative events" to serve as agitators in counterprotests.

The ad was posted by a company called "Crowds on Demand" and offered $25 per hour to "actors and photographers" to participate in events in the "Charlotte, NC area."  While the ad didn't explicitly define a role to be filled by its crowd of "actors and photographers" it did ask applicants to comment on whether they were "ok with participating in peaceful protests." 
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-16/why-was-crowd-hire-company-recruiting-25-hour-political-activists-charlotte-last-wee

Most accountants are honorable men, trying to do a job. But they are hired by corporations, not by investors.

George Goodman, aka Adam Smith, The Money Game. But What Do The Numbers Mean?

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, so you really want to own Chinese shares? To misquote the late “Adam Smith,” go and lie down until the urge passes.

Somebody has to be on the other side.

George Goodman, aka Adam Smith. The Money Game. Why Are The Little People Always Wrong?

China Shows How Not to Sell $11.7 Billion in Shares

Bloomberg News
17 August 2017, 04:17 GMT+1
For a deal that’s been months in the making, the $11.7 billion share sale plan announced by China’s second-largest wireless carrier sure looked like a rushed job.

That’s according to Francis Lun, Hong Kong-based chief executive officer of Geo Securities Ltd., after a series of gaffes by China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd. and Shanghai-listed China United Network Communications Ltd. undermined Wednesday’s disclosure that the Chinese carrier would bring in more than a dozen investors as part of a government push to privatize its state-owned enterprises.

"There’s been confusion right to the very last moment -- they shouldn’t be rushing ahead to make the announcements," Lun said. "It shows their incompetency. The approval process has to be called into question when they deliver misleading messages like this."

It began with the announcement itself, which kicked off as a presentation to journalists, analysts and investors at about 4:30 p.m. on Wednesday in Hong Kong but the material detailing of one of Unicom’s biggest deals ever wasn’t available online until about half an hour later.

The briefing material listed CRRC Corp. as one of its new investors but the Chinese train maker said the following morning that it didn’t participate in the deal. Unicom, voted as having the "Best Investor Relations in China" by FinanceAsia magazine, also said on Wednesday its shares would resume trading in Hong Kong the following day, only to change its mind hours later by saying the trading halt would continue until further notice.

Then there was China United, which released a statement on the sale to the Shanghai exchange, only to withdraw it hours later. The company, which has been halted from trading in Shanghai since April, then issued a statement on Thursday saying the stock will continue to be suspended for "technical reasons" for another three days, pending the release of the share-sale announcement.

A Unicom Group representative said the retraction was due to technical reasons. The representative referred all other queries to the company’s announcements.

While investors are more interested in whether Unicom’s new investors spur positive changes to the company, even that is under question, according to Geo’s Lun.

"It’s one thing to have new investors, it’s another thing if new investors can bring material change," Lun said. "That’s what we’re waiting to see. If the existing management still controls everything and nothing has happened then there will be disappointment."
Not even a decade ago, everybody believed. Events did seem under control. Inflation would creep, not gallop; the New Economics would fine-tune the economy; productivity would increase; wars would be fought, but not by us—we were the mediators, understanding but tough; problems would be articulated, and that articulation was half the solution; we would begin upon the solutions. Kennedy rhetoric: let us begin; let the word go forth; let us never negotiate from fear, nor fear to negotiate; let anybody call upon us. Confident, ambitious, optimistic, even naïve—the very best of the American tradition. Hail Columbia, happy land.

Then, one thing and another, the John Philip Sousa music faded a bit. Could rational men make events behave rationally? Maybe they couldn’t.
George Goodman, aka Adam Smith, Supermoney, 1972.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Facebook to Open Renewables-Powered Data Center in Ohio

Facebook announced this week that its 10th U.S.-based data center will be located in New Albany, Ohio, just north of Columbus.

The $750 million, 22-acre data plant is expected to employ 100 people and be powered exclusively by renewable energy. According to abcnews.go.com, Rachel Peterson, the company’s director of data center strategy and development, said the availability of renewable energy sources, including wind, solar and hydro, was critical to choosing the location — a factor underlined by Ohio Governor John Kasich, who has pushed back against legislative efforts to turn back the state’s alternative energy requirements.

“It is critical that we continue developing the renewables, because, believe me, at the end of the day, if the Facebooks and the Googles and the PayPals and the Amazons think that we are not committed to renewable energy, they will not come here. Period, end of story,” Kasich said.

In April, the social media giant announced it would construct a 144-acre data center outside of Omaha that would be 100% powered by wind energy. Facebook said that particular data center would be one of the most “advanced and energy efficient in the world.”

And in January, the company announced another data center that would also be one of the most “advanced and energy efficient in the world” in Denmark. Officials in the country, however, felt the facility would actually increase the country’s contribution to greenhouse warming.

Another weekend in Trumpland, and the terror struck EUSSR, what could possibly go wrong? Plenty, just stick around. Europe’s politicians are totally out of their depth at dealing with Mrs Merkel’s moslem migrant invasion. The public mood is turning increasingly frustrated. America has a problem with the rise of militant socialist/communist/anarchist fascism that it doesn’t yet recognise.  Neither problems are easily addressed. Have a great weekend everyone.

We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable.

Alexander Solzhenitsyn

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished July

DJIA: 21,891 +207 Up. NASDAQ:  6,348 +250 Up. SP500: 2,470 +171 Up.

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