Thursday, 24 August 2017

Bunker Time.



Baltic Dry Index. 1222 -27     Brent Crude 52.57

"We will not have any more crashes in our time."

John Maynard Keynes, leading British economist, in 1927

Run, do not walk to the nearest bunker. President Trump threatens to use the nuclear option, but not on North Korea. On the US government and the USA itself, and next month, too.  China just told Uncle Sam, you want a trade war, we’ll give you a trade war! Wall Street’s dodgy, gambling, rent-seeking, banksters warn that winter’s all but here. We are just one long bank holiday away from entering stock market crash season.

Asian stock gamblers think all this doesn’t matter. Stick around another week or two or three. We are about to find out if it does.

"There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."

Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist, New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929

August 24, 2017 / 1:48 AM

Asia stocks brush off Wall St. slide after Trump's comments, dollar recovers

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian stocks and the dollar edged up on Thursday, shaking off the risk aversion that gripped financial markets overnight after President Donald Trump threatened to shut down the U.S. government and end the North American Free Trade Agreement.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.4 percent.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 pulled back 0.1 percent, with steelmakers slumping after the Nikkei business daily reported that Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) was looking to cut the price of steel supplied to component makers in the October-March period.

That is the result of lower rates, already agreed for the six months through September with steelmakers such as Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corp. Four of the five biggest decliners on the index were steelmakers.

Chinese stocks .CSI300 .SSEC were down about 0.3 percent, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng .HSI jumped 0.45 percent.

South Korea's KOSPI .KS11 added 0.4 percent and Australian stocks gained 0.25 percent.

Overnight, U.S. stock indexes closed between 0.3 percent .IXIC .SPX and 0.4 percent .DJI lower.

Trump said at a Tuesday night rally in Arizona that he would be willing to risk a government shutdown to secure funding for a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Those comments came ahead of a late-September deadline to raise the U.S. debt ceiling or risk defaulting on debt payments.
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Dow just logged its longest streak without a gain of at least 1% in 10 1/2 years

Published: Aug 23, 2017 4:30 p.m. ET
The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wednesday marked its longest streak without a gain of at least 1% in more than a decade, according to WSJ Market Data Group. The Dow DJIA, -0.40% hasn't posted a rise of at least 1% since April 25, when it rallied 232 points or 1.1%. Its failure to do so on Wednesday, marks the 84th trading day without such an advance, the longest since an 102-session streak ended March 2007. The Dow narrowly missed a 1% gain in Tuesday's nearly 200-point rally--its best one-day gain in four months

Overall, Wall Street stocks ended lower as investors fretted that comments made by President Donald Trump at a rally of supporters late Tuesday in Phoenix suggest that he is willing to let a looming government shutdown happen in autumn. The Dow closed off 0.4% at 21,812, the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.35% was off 0.4% at 2,444, while the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.30% closed off 0.3% at 6,278. --Ken Jimenez contributed to this report

Wall Street Banks Warn Winter Is Coming as Business Cycle Peaks

By Sid Verma and Cecile Gutscher
22 August 2017, 17:47 GMT+1 23 August 2017, 09:48 GMT+1
HSBC Holdings Plc, Citigroup Inc. and Morgan Stanley see mounting evidence that global markets are in the last stage of their rallies before a downturn in the business cycle.

Analysts at the Wall Street behemoths cite signals including the breakdown of long-standing relationships between stocks, bonds and commodities as well as investors ignoring valuation fundamentals and data. It all means stock and credit markets are at risk of a painful drop.

“Equities have become less correlated with FX, FX has become less correlated with rates, and everything has become less sensitive to oil,” Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley’s chief cross-asset strategist, wrote in a note published Tuesday.

His bank’s model shows assets across the world are the least correlated in almost a decade, even after U.S. stocks joined high-yield credit in a selloff triggered this month by President Donald Trump’s political standoff with North Korea and racial violence in Virginia.

Just like they did in the run-up to the 2007 crisis, investors are pricing assets based on the risks specific to an individual security and industry, and shrugging off broader drivers, such as the latest release of manufacturing data, the model shows. As traders look for excuses to stay bullish, traditional relationships within and between asset classes tend to break down.

---- For Savita Subramanian, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, signals that investors aren’t paying much attention to earnings is another sign that the global rally may soon run out of steam. For the first time since the mid-2000s, companies that outperformed analysts’ profit and sales estimates across 11 sectors saw no reward from investors, according to her research.

“This lack of a reaction could be another late-cycle signal, suggesting expectations and positioning already more than reflect good results/guidance,” Subramanian wrote in a note earlier this month.
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August 24, 2017 / 3:48 AM

China says will use all necessary means to defend interests against U.S. trade probe

BEIJING (Reuters) - China will use all necessary means to defend the interests of the country and its companies against a U.S. trade investigation, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce said on Thursday.
The ministry on Monday expressed "strong dissatisfaction" with the U.S. launch of the probe into China's alleged theft of U.S. intellectual property, calling it "irresponsible".

The probe is the Trump administration's first direct measure against Chinese trade practices, which the White House and U.S. business groups say are bruising American industry.

"We will take all the necessary measures to resolutely defend the interests of China and Chinese firms" in the face of the unilateral U.S. actions, commerce ministry official Gao Feng told reporters at a regular news conference.

Gao also said that China's support for overseas investment by Chinese firms will not change, but that oversight of deals will increase and projects related to China's Belt and Road initiative will be given priority.

China's cabinet released guidelines to manage overseas investments, with certain sectors encouraged and others restricted or banned outright.

Mergers and acquisitions by Chinese companies in countries linked to the Belt and Road initiative have been growing at a rapid rate, even as the government takes aim at China's acquisitive conglomerates to restrict capital outflows.
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"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."

Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929

We close for the day with Brexit news. With Barnier and Juncker seemingly wanting a no deal Brexit, are UK auto buyers starting to switch to buying British, ahead of future higher import duties on European vehicles and parts? If they are and it becomes a trend, the rump-EUSSR’s metal bashing auto makers are heading for a massive pile up.

Below, anti-Brexit Reuters spins the large jump in UK car output just as normal.  The extreme left wing, anti-Brexit, anti-British BBC Fake News headline:

“Brexit Fears Reduce UK Auto Output Rise to just 7.8 percent in July.”

August 24, 2017 / 12:11 AM

UK car output reverses downward trend with 7.8 percent rise in July

LONDON (Reuters) - British car production rose by an annual 7.8 percent in July as manufacturers boosted output ahead of the key selling month of September, an industry body said on Thursday, reversing the downward trend recorded in recent months.

Factories churned out 136,397 vehicles, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), the first year-on-year increase since March.

Exports, which account for around 80 percent of output, rose 5.3 percent while cars destined for the home market surged by 17.7 percent, the first increase since November.

September is one of only two occasions each year when a new licence plate series is issued and accounts for around 20 percent of total sales.

"UK car production lines stepped up a gear in July, as usual bringing forward some production to help manage demand ahead of September and routine summer factory shutdowns," SMMT Chief Executive Mike Hawes said.

"As the timing and length of these manufacturing pauses can shift each year, market performance comparisons for July and August should always be treated with caution," he said.

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“I wonder what Juncker is doing," thought the BBC’s Head of Fake News.
"I wish I were there to be doing it to the British people, too.”

With apologies to A.A. Milne, and Winnie-the-Pooh

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

 The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
No crooks or bent politicians today, more of them tomorrow. Today, all about Halifax, Yorkshire, refurbishment and regeneration of one of Yorkshire’s most important architectural historical buildings. A square Roman Coliseum. Yet another reason, among so many, to visit England’s largest county.
YORKSHIRE’S MOST IMPORTANT SECULAR BUILDING
The Grade I listed Piece Hall, Halifax is a rare and precious thing, an architectural and cultural phenomenon which is absolutely unique. It is the sole survivor of the great eighteenth century northern cloth halls, a class of buildings which embodied the vital and dominant importance of the trade in hand woven textiles to the pre-industrial economy of the West Riding of Yorkshire, from the Middle Ages through to the early nineteenth century.

Dating from 1779, when it was built as a Cloth Hall for the trading of ‘pieces’ of cloth (a 30 yard length of woven woollen fabric produced on a handloom), The Piece Hall was the most ambitious and prestigious of its type and now stands in splendid isolation as the only remaining example. It is one of Britain’s most outstanding Georgian buildings.

It is impossible to overstate the scale and importance of this trade, not just to the history of Halifax and the West Riding, but to the nation as a whole over some 800 years between the twelfth and eighteenth centuries.

When it was built, The Piece Hall was a highly visible statement of the great wealth, pride and ambition of the cloth manufacturers. Although built for trade, it also embodied the most cultured sensitivities of the Enlightenment; these bluff northern manufacturers deliberately chose a design for their building which adapted the neo-classical orders of architecture derived originally from the Romans.

From its inception, The Piece Hall was a stunning combination of commerce and culture, an icon of hard business but also a broader statement about the history, the lives and the values of its surrounding community. This fascinating mix of purpose and idealism – business, arts and people, continues to influence and drive The Piece Hall’s role today. A direct link back over almost a quarter of a millenium of history.

The development is one of the most significant and high profile heritage projects to have happened in the UK

Extensive works were undertaken to sensitively and expertly conserve the Grade I listed building. The project also included new elements in the creation of a heritage and learning visitor attraction with high quality interpretation and learning spaces, a new extension to the east wall to include restaurants and conferencing facilities, and a redesigned accessible courtyard that will house events and festivals in a year round programme creating a twenty-first century town square.

The Piece Hall is a unique and special place that demands a high quality and expert finish. While work on the project moved forward, as might be expected with the age and complexity of such a building, there were challenges along the way. The works were completed in July 2017, with the building fully reopened in the August with shops, cafes and events. 
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

The story of how discarded orange peels turbocharged a Costa Rican forest

Rich Haridy August 22, 2017
Sixteen years after a controversial biodegradation plan allowed 1,000 truckloads of orange peels to be unloaded onto a barren, deforested area of Costa Rican land, a team of Princeton researchers has discovered unexpectedly positive results. The area that was covered with orange waste is now a lush, overgrown forest with richer soil and more tree species than the adjacent land that was untreated.

The Area de Conservación Guanacaste (ACG) is a World Heritage-listed and government-managed conservation area in northwestern Costa Rica. In the early 1990s, it was discovered that a large-scale orange plantation was being established on one of the ACG's borders in order to sustain a new orange juice manufacturing plant called Del Oro.

In 1996, two ecologists from the University of Pennsylvania, who had worked for many years with the ACG, had a radical suggestion. What if the organic waste from the orange juice factory could be recycled to accelerate the reforestation of some barren spaces in the conservation area?

A deal was signed and the orange juice company dumped 12,000 metric tons of orange pulp and peels onto a three-hectare stretch of former cattle pasture. Many newly designated conservation areas in the ACG suffer from rocky, nutrient-poor soils due to the prominent history of overgrazing and fire-based land management in the region. The hope was that this plan would be the perfect synergy between industry and conservation.

The initial results were positive, yielding rich black soils and a variety of multi-species broadleaf herbs. A follow-up deal was struck between ACG and Del Oro, with ACG agreeing to take 1,000 truckloads of orange waste a year for 20 years.

But all was not well in the competitive orange juice business in Costa Rica.

A rival orange juice company, Ticofruit, was not happy with the deal between the government and its competitor, so it launched a court case against Del Oro, claiming this dumping of orange waste was "sullying a national park." Despite the fact that the original deal was actually between the government and Del Oro, Ticofruit's lawsuit went all the way to the country's Supreme Court and politics ultimately prevailed over common sense.

Ticofruit won the lawsuit, and the court determined the deal between ACG and Del Oro must be terminated. Progress on the initiative halted, and the land strewn with orange peels was left alone, untouched for the following 15 years.

Fast forward to 2013 and Timothy Treuer, a graduate student at Princeton was on the hunt for research topics. In his talks with one of the original ecologists who worked on the ACG project it was suggested that a follow-up study on the effects of the orange peel on the land had never been properly done. So Treuer went to visit the site and was stunned by what he found.

"It was so completely overgrown with trees and vines that I couldn't even see the 7-foot-long sign with bright yellow lettering marking the site that was only a few feet from the road," says Treuer. "I knew we needed to come up with some really robust metrics to quantify exactly what was happening and to back up this eye-test, which was showing up at this place and realizing visually how stunning the difference was between fertilized and unfertilized areas."
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...for, as long as but a hundred of us remain alive, never will we on any conditions remain 
under EUSSR rule. It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom – for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself.

The People’s Declaration of Brexit June 24th 2016, with apologies to the Declaration of Arbroath April 6th 1320.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished July

DJIA: 21,891 +207 Up. NASDAQ:  6,348 +250 Up. SP500: 2,470 +171 Up.

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