Baltic Dry Index. 736 -03 Brent Crude 48.62
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
“It was all down, down, down, gradually--ruin and levelling and disappearance. Then it was all up, up, up, gradually, as seeds grew to saplings, and saplings to forest trees, and bramble and fern came creeping in to help.”
Kenneth Grahame. The Wind in the Willows.
According to the talking chair and the Washington Fedster’s, all’s well in the emerging market world again, so much so that an interest rate rise is back on for December. Even better, the Fedster’s see the US economy zipping along at a “moderate” pace. Algo traders loved it and stocks, gold and oil soared. Not only is bad news good news in our gambling den casinos, ANY news is now good news in the central bankster’s final bubble.
Never mind that in Paris in December, the Looney Green and anarchist lobby is proposing to hobble the developed market economies with masses of new taxes and regulations. Never mind that to many outside observers the US economy seems to be flirting with another recession. I wonder what they drink and smoke in the Fedster's Eccles building?
Fed Considers December Rate Rise, Sees ‘Moderate’ Expansion
October 28, 2015 — 6:00 PM GMT Updated on October 28, 2015 — 7:33 PM GMT
Federal Reserve policy makers said they will consider tightening policy
at their next meeting in December, without making a commitment to act this
year, as the economy continues to expand at a “moderate” pace.
Even with a slower pace of recent job gains, “labor market indicators,
on balance, show that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since
early this year,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement
Wednesday following a two-day meeting in Washington.
Morehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-28/fed-sees-moderate-pace-of-economic-growth-as-rates-unchanged
Federal Reserve hints at chance of higher interest rates in December
The US central bank has confirmed that December's meeting is 'live', as risks to the global outlook have faded
US interest rates could rise as soon as December, the Federal Reserve has said, as the central bank becomes less concerned over emerging market malaise.A decision to tighten policy could be taken "at its next meeting", said the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which decides on interest rates.
While the committee voted to keep policy on hold at its October meeting on Wednesday, it omitted previously voiced concerns over the negative impact on the US economy of China’s weakness.
Worries over emerging markets shook confidence in the Fed’s willingness to hike interest rates last month, pushing back expectations of tighter policy into next year.
However, the FOMC removed its caution that “global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity” this month. In its latest statement, this language was adjusted to state that the committee was merely “monitoring global economic and financial developments”.
After the statement was released, money managers increased their bets on rate rises this December. The odds of a hike by the end of the year stood at 47pc, higher than the previous 34pc.
More
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11955465/Federal-Reserve-hints-at-chance-of-higher-interest-rates-in-December.html
But….
Trucking Firms' Wipeout A Bad Sign For U.S. Economy
Saia (NASDAQ:SAIA) missed badly on Q3 earnings and sales, sending its shares crashing as the trucking company was hurt by declining tonnage trends in the industry. A trucking downturn is a bad sign for the U.S. economy.The Johns Creek, Ga.-based company earned 46 cents a share, down 28.1% from a year earlier and missing views by 22 cents. Revenue fell 4.6% to $317.2 million, missing estimates of $328.4 million.
Saia CEO Rick O'Dell said the company will "aggressively manage costs" amid the low-volume climate for trucking in the U.S.
Shares plunged 21% to 23.72 on the stock market today after tumbling 7.9% Tuesday.
Saia's big miss came a day after C.H. Robinson Worldwide (NASDAQ:CHRW) said weak demand as well as a large supply of capacity hurt it in the third quarter. The Minneapolis-based company also said it expects that trucking companies will struggle raising rates and may even lower them in 2016.
----Swift Transportation (NYSE:SWFT) said Tuesday that it was halting its fleet's expansion after it reported weak Q3 results the day before. The company posted declines in both earnings per share and revenue as it missed Wall Street estimates.
Weak freight demand and pricing were cited as reasons for Swift, a major player in the trucking industry, to stop expanding its fleet.
Swift's board also approved $100 million in common stock buybacks. Shares rose 0.1% to 15.15 on Wednesday.
Cummins (NYSE:CMI), truck engine maker, on Tuesday reported weak earnings and said it would cut 2,000 jobs due to weak demand. Cummins rose 0.9% but not before hitting the lowest levels since late 2012. Cummins shares tumbled 8.7% Tuesday.
http://news.investors.com/business/102815-777914-trucking-companies-report-weak-demand-so-far.htm
China Steel Head Says Demand Slumping at Unprecedented Speed
October 28,
2015 — 3:07 AM GMT Updated on October 28, 2015 — 7:42 AM GMT
If anyone doubted the magnitude of the crisis facing the world’s largest
steel industry, listening to Zhu Jimin would put them right, fast.Demand is collapsing along with prices, banks are tightening lending and losses are stacking up, the deputy head of the China Iron & Steel Association said on Wednesday.
“Production cuts are slower than the contraction in demand, therefore oversupply is worsening,” said Zhu at a quarterly briefing in Beijing by the main producers’ group. “Although China has cut interest rates many times recently, steel mills said their funding costs have actually gone up.”
China’s mills -- which produce about half of worldwide output -- are battling against oversupply and sinking prices as local consumption shrinks for the first time in a generation amid a property-led slowdown. The fallout from the steelmakers’ struggles is hurting iron ore prices and boosting trade tensions as mills seek to sell their surplus overseas. Shanghai Baosteel Group Corp. forecast last week that China’s steel production may eventually shrink 20 percent, matching the experience seen in the U.S. and elsewhere.
“China’s steel demand evaporated at unprecedented speed as the nation’s economic growth slowed,” Zhu said. “As demand quickly contracted, steel mills are lowering prices in competition to get contracts.”
Medium- and large-sized mills incurred losses of 28.1 billion yuan ($4.4 billion) in the first nine months of this year, according to a statement from CISA. Steel demand in China shrank 8.7 percent in September on-year, it said.
Signs of corporate difficulties are mounting. Producer Angang Steel Co. warned this month it expects to swing to a loss in the third quarter on lower product prices and foreign-exchange losses. The company’s Hong Kong stock has lost more than half its value this year. Last week, Sinosteel Co., a state-owned steel trader, failed to pay interest due on bonds maturing in 2017.
More
Iron Ore Sinks Below $50 as China Demand Sags, Supply Jumps
October 28, 2015 — 11:19 AM GMT Updated on October 28, 2015 — 1:16 PM
GMT
Iron ore sank back below $50 a metric ton on speculation that a
global glut will persist as China’s leading mills group said local steel demand
was contracting at an unprecedented pace and supplies from the biggest miners
were expected to climb.
Ore with 62 percent content delivered to Qingdao fell 3 percent to
$49.95 a dry ton on Wednesday, the lowest price since July 9, according to
Metal Bulletin Ltd. The decline snapped the trading range that’s held since
July 10 of prices between $50 and $60. Iron ore last traded below $50 on
July 9 and bottomed for the year at $44.59 one day earlier on July 8.
Iron ore’s renewed losses show that the market has yet to reach a
balance as the world’s biggest miners boost low-cost output while steel
consumption shrinks in China.
More
And in the continental
EUSSR, busy transforming itself into a European Khanistan, the ECB is becoming
a house divided. Brexit looks better with each passing week. Time for a Brexit
wager I think.
ECB Officials Haggle Over Fresh Stimulus in Draghi's Aftermath
October 28, 2015 — 12:26 PM GMT Updated on October 28, 2015 — 3:18 PM
GMT
Not all European Central Bank officials agree that more stimulus is needed.Less than a week after President Mario Draghi primed investors for an expansion of quantitative easing and the possibility of another cut in the deposit rate, Governing Council members are publicly revealing the arguments that will define their Dec. 3 decision-making meeting.
A rift has already emerged, with Peter Praet, the ECB’s chief economist, telling an audience in Riga on Wednesday that the bank has a duty to use all instruments available, and Executive Board member Benoit Coeure saying in Mexico Tuesday that a slower-than-anticipated return of inflation toward the ECB’s 2 percent goal may warrant additional stimulus. Taking up the other side of the debate are Ardo Hansson, a council member from Estonia, and his Latvian counterpart, who said they see no need to rush action.
“We have a very rich discussions in the Governing Council, and as I always say high quality, there are different views but the analysis is always rich and respectful,” Praet said. Officials are “not only willing, but also able to act, we have always demonstrated this capacity to act collectively.”
Praet’s comment that downside risks have “clearly increased” is a reflection of the ECB’s struggle to nurture the recovery and revive inflation. Draghi all but promised to ease policy at the December meeting by committing to be “vigilant,” invoking his predecessor Jean-Claude Trichet’s preferred signal for imminent action.
While the ECB is “closely monitoring” the situation and “stands ready to act” should the outlook deteriorate, “nothing has been decided” on an adjustment of QE next month, ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio said in a speech in Berlin on Wednesday.
More
British Bookmaker Doubles Probability of Exit From EU
The likely outcome remains that Britain will stay in the EU, but the outcome looks less certain.
October 28, 2015 — 12:09 PM GMT
The chances of the U.K. leaving the European Union have almost doubled in
just three months, if the odds from Betfair Group Plc's gambling exchange are
any indication of sentiment.The probability of a majority vote for leaving the EU has jumped to 36 percent, from 18.5 percent at the end of July, based on the odds given to bettors on the outcome of the referendum.
While bettors are following the momentum of the polls, it would require a huge swing for so-called Brexit to become the favorite outcome.
"A vote in favor of staying in the EU is still the firm favorite at 1.56 (4/7 or a 64% chance), in much the same way as the Scottish Referendum market was predicting a No to independence from very early on," Betfair spokeswoman Naomi Totten said by e-mail. "The price for a vote in favor of leaving the EU is the shortest it has been since June, currently trading at 2.76 (7/4 or a 36% chance), but in the context of the market it is still very much assumed that Britain will vote to remain within the EU."
More
"I
see you don't understand, and I must explain it to you. Well, very long ago, on
the spot where the Wild Wood waves now, before ever it had planted itself and
grown up to what it now is, there was a city--a city of people, you know. Here,
where we are standing, they lived, and walked, and talked, and slept, and
carried on their business. Here they stabled their horses and feasted, from
here they rode out to fight or drove out to trade. They were a powerful people,
and rich, and great builders. They built to last, for they thought their city
would last for ever."
Kenneth
Grahame. The Wind in the Willows.
At the Comex silver depositories
Wednesday final figures were: Registered 43.44 Moz, Eligible 118.98 Moz, Total
162.42 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Today, more on Merkel’s Madness. Germany seeks to turn itself Moslem, as the
EUSSR gets ever closer to breaking down. Euros anyone?
Austria Plans Border Fence as Migrants Threaten EU Movement
October 28,
2015 — 9:12 AM GMT Updated on October 28, 2015 — 12:42 PM GMT
Austria is planning to build a fence along its border with Slovenia to
control the arrival of migrants, after earlier criticizing similar moves by
neighboring countries such as Hungary.
Austria won’t completely seal off the border with Slovenia, but wants to
be prepared in case the flow of migrants worsens, Interior Minister
Johanna Mikl-Leitner said on ORF radio Wednesday. The “fixed constructions” on
crossings will help to establish an “orderly” influx of refugees, she said.
“Whether we want it or not, people are marching toward Germany,”
Mikl-Leitner said.
Concern is growing among national leaders that their commitment to
free movement within the EU, one of the bloc’s central principles, may not
withstand the pressure of the refugee influx. Slovenia is also ready to build a
border fence with Croatia, Prime Minister Miro Cerar told reporters Wednesday,
as people displaced by conflicts in the Middle East trek through the Balkans.
The news drew notice from Brussels, where EU Commission officials said
they haven’t been informed of Austria’s plans. Commission President Jean-Claude
Juncker will address the issue with Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann later
Wednesday, a spokeswoman said, while commending Austria’s approach to the
crisis at a Sunday meeting. The measures follow comments from EU President
Donald Tusk and Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni this week, who said
borderless travel may be at risk.
While EU rules do allow the temporary re-imposition of border controls
when faced with massive influxes, the new measures send a worrying political
message that countries are no longer committed to open borders, said Camino
Mortera-Martinez, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform in
Brussels.
“Unless something is done, we will see more and more fences and border
controls, and then we will have a Schengen crisis, and if we have a Schengen
crisis, we will have an EU crisis,” said Mortera-Martinez, referring to the
accord that abolished border controls among 26 European countries.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has insisted that Europe can’t put up
new walls and must welcome war refugees. Her stance came under fire Wednesday
from party allies in Bavaria, which borders Austria, who renewed charges that
her decision not to apply European Union rules in her handling of the nation’s
refugee crisis violates German laws.
MoreNazi-Era Tempelhof Airport Reborn as Shelter for Refugees
October 27,
2015 — 11:01 PM GMT Updated on October 28, 2015 — 12:16 PM GMT
Tempelhof
Airport, built by the Nazis in the 1930s and used by Allied pilots to save
West Berliners from starvation during the Cold War, has been given a new lease
on life sheltering refugees as Germany struggles to house the biggest influx of
migrants since World War II.Tempelhof, which closed as an airfield in 2008, will provide emergency housing to a total of 1,000 refugees in the coming weeks, after the first 300 moved into 55 tents with bunk beds set up by soldiers in a football field-sized hangar over the weekend.
“Tempelhof had to be selected because smaller sites simply won’t do anymore,” said Regina Kneiding, a spokeswoman for the German capital’s health and social ministry. “About 700 refugees arrive in Berlin every day, and we’re at the edge of our capacity when it comes to available housing.”
Built in 1936 by Hermann Goering’s Reich Air Ministry and the world’s biggest building until the Pentagon trumped it, Tempelhof in recent years has hosted corporate events, rock concerts and fashion events and even a beer festival. Using the iconic structure for refugees underscores the challenge of housing the at least 800,000 people expected to arrive in Germany this year, driven by Syria’s civil war and conflicts in other parts of the Middle East. The crisis has eroded support for Chancellor Angela Merkel and her party as she insists that Germany, Europe’s largest economy, can’t wall itself off.
----While the influx is expected to cost Germany billions of euros, helping refugees is more important than a balanced budget, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Wednesday at a conference in Berlin.
The German capital has 91 refugee sites and is preparing new ones
“almost daily” to prevent homelessness during the coming winter, Kneiding said.
About 1,000 refugees living at the the city’s congress center will have to be
relocated by mid-December because the halls will be used for an agriculture
fair. “It’s hard to find normal houses, so we’re turning to alternatives
including factory halls,” she said.
More
Solar & Related Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this new section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?Thinking Differently About Where to Deploy Solar-Plus-Storage
A new report shows an untapped opportunity for hybrid systems on
affordable housing complexes.
by Stephen
Lacey October 27, 2015
The market for distributed batteries in the U.S. has largely been limited to
states with obvious economic benefits: California and New York.With a robust storage target, high demand charges, and an incentive program for behind-the-meter batteries, California is a clearly compelling place to do business. Although New York is still grappling with the safety of using lithium-ion batteries in buildings, the state's high demand charges make lead-acid storage an attractive offering for commercial businesses looking to shave their power bills.
Installers are increasingly looking to couple these battery systems with solar, although still in limited numbers in only a handful of states.
But are companies thinking too narrowly about where to put these systems? Are there less obvious markets where solar-plus-storage makes sense?
The Clean Energy Group (CEG) set out to answer those questions in an economic analysis of combined PV and battery systems in three cities. The organization didn't just model traditional commercial buildings. Rather, it focused on affordable housing with 100 to 300 units -- a market underserved by solar and battery installers alike.
"Most of the activity is only geared to high-end economics. This project is designed to bend the arc of that trend," said Lewis Milford, president of CEG and one of the authors of the report.
CEG found favorable economics for solar-plus-storage on affordable housing units in Chicago, Washington, D.C., and New York. The analysis modeled project expenses, operations and maintenance costs, average utility bills, grid services, solar renewable energy credits, capital depreciation, local incentives and the federal Investment Tax Credit. It also assumed that lithium-ion batteries were replaced after 10 years and lead-acid batteries were replaced after seven years.
The report was written for two reasons: first, to show that affordable housing can be a viable market for installers, and second, to show that solar-plus-storage is viable as a resiliency tool to protect against outages.
"As we worked to examine the economics of these systems in the multi-family affordable housing sector, we began to realize how persuasive the economics for solar-plus-storage projects can be -- effectively meeting a building’s common area electricity demands from clean energy while providing resilient power for free, in many instances," wrote the authors.
More
UK National Grid Status.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September
DJIA: +41 Down. NASDAQ:
+138 Down. SP500: +65 Down.
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