Baltic Dry Index. 888 -12 Brent Crude 47.98
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
"When it becomes serious, you have to lie"
Jean-Claude Juncker. Failed Luxembourg Prime Minister and ex-president of the Euro Group of Finance Ministers. Confessed liar. EC President.
Jean-Claude Juncker. Failed Luxembourg Prime Minister and ex-president of the Euro Group of Finance Ministers. Confessed liar. EC President.
Today we focus on fallout from two of last month’s big developments in
European stocks. The ever growing “dirty diesel” scandal at Volkswagen, which
has likely killed off diesels for use in passenger cars globally. And scandal number two the near
disintegration of commodities and mining giant Glencore, that seems to be
sinking faster, if anything, than even the increasingly dodgy, Chinese economy.
Though in fairness, Glencore is merely the lead warship in a flotilla of
commodities and mining companies, including Trafigura and Singapore’s Noble
Group.
Up first VW, which now says it wants to reform and come clean, honest it does, cross its
scheming little heart and hope to die. Oddly, ex-Boss Winterkorn is still on
the company payroll. Better on reservation than off, if only for legal reasons.
VW Workforce Starts to Feel Pinch From Diesel-Emissions Scandal
October 1,
2015 — 10:46 AM BST
Volkswagen AG’s 600,000-person workforce is starting to feel the impact
of the diesel-emissions scandal as the carmaker cuts spending in anticipation
of fines, recalls and a drop in U.S. sales.
Volkswagen slowed production at one of its biggest engine factories and
froze hiring in Germany at its unit that makes car loans, the Wolfsburg,
Germany-based company said Thursday. More measures to rein in spending are
expected as Volkswagen seeks to weather the crisis by giving its efficiency
program a “turbo” boost in the billions of euros without cutting jobs, Bernd
Osterloh, VW’s labor chief, told workers in a letter on Sept. 24.
The automaker is facing a significant financial impact, including at
least 6.5 billion euros ($7.25 billion) it already set aside for repairs and
recalls and a U.S. fine that may reach $7.4 billion, according to analysts from
Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd. How the company will react was among the topics on
the table when the board’s leadership panel met late into the night on
Wednesday with Chief Executive Officer Matthias Mueller.
“Volkswagen has a broad range of options should they need to boost
liquidity,” said Frank Biller, a Stuttgart, Germany-based analyst with LBBW.
The company could try to step up the VW brand’s existing cost-savings program,
which had originally aimed to boost earnings by 5 billion euros by 2017, he
said. “Then there’s a catalog of measures that could follow.”
These range from shrinking ad and sponsoring budgets to reducing bonus payments,
cutting the dividend or selling assets, Biller said. Volkswagen had 21.5
billion euros in net liquidity at the end of June and since then sold shares in
former partner Suzuki Motor Corp. for about 3.4 billion euros.
More
Former VW boss Winterkorn remains in four key posts
Thu Oct 1, 2015 | 11:15 AM EDT
BERLIN, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Martin Winterkorn, the former boss of
Volkswagen who quit last week saying he wanted to give the German carmaker a
"fresh start" to tackle a scandal over rigged vehicle emissions
tests, remains in four key positions involved with the group.
The 68-year-old is chief executive of Porsche SE , the family-owned
holding company that controls a majority stake in Volkswagen, as well as
chairman of VW's flagship luxury brand Audi, trucks division Scania and the
group's newly-created Truck & Bus holding.
The longer Winterkorn stays on in the background, the harder it will be
for the company to convince critics it can move on from the biggest business
crisis in its 78-year history, according to some investors and analysts.
"It's a real surprise that Winterkorn is still there," said
Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, head of the Center of Automotive Research at the
University of Duisburg-Essen.
"VW has pledged a fresh start but his continued presence is
detrimental to VW's public image."
Volkswagen declined comment on Winterkorn's positions within the group,
saying it was up to the supervisory boards of the brands in question to take
any decision about his future.
A source close to the company said Winterkorn had not yet quit his group
positions because investigations were underway and a hasty withdrawal could be
seen as an admission of guilt.
More
Mazda's Diesel Dreams for U.S. in Doubt After Volkswagen Scandal
September
30, 2015 — 10:00 PM BST
Mazda Motor Corp.’s plans to introduce a diesel car in its most
important market risk falling further behind schedule after Volkswagen AG
flouted U.S. rules and unleashed global regulatory scrutiny on the technology.
The cloudy outlook for Mazda’s U.S. diesel ambitions stands out as an
example of collateral damage from Volkswagen’s cheating on U.S. emissions
tests. Revelations that the German company achieved its promise of “clean
diesel” by using software to beat laboratory tests not only sullied consumer
perception of the cars, they also cast doubt on Mazda’s ability to create an
engine that’s both fuel efficient and clean.
“It’s been delayed and delayed, and Mazda keeps saying it’s
coming,” Dave Sullivan, an analyst for industry researcher AutoPacific
Inc., said by phone. “At this point, I don’t understand why they would need a
diesel for this market. I don’t see it happening.”
Mazda’s engineers are trying to develop the Skyactiv-D engine in line
with U.S. emissions standards without sacrificing performance, said Michiko
Terashima, a company spokeswoman. The company doesn’t have a time frame for
introducing the engine but won’t change its plan because of the Volkswagen case,
she said.
Mazda
is the Japanese carmaker most reliant on diesel, with about 45 percent of its
domestic sales from diesel models in the quarter through June. By contrast,
Toyota Motor Corp. and Nissan Motor Co. have prioritized hybrids and electric
vehicles, respectively.
More
And the latest from Glencore and the rest of the gang. Strangely, I get
the feeling I’ve been here before. The Tin Council, Refco, MF Global, and of
course, Bear Stearns, Old Mother Merrill, and who can forget Lehman Bros. All
were in the peak of good health until they weren’t. Worryingly, ex-BP CEO Tony
Hayward of Cowes sailing race fame, if not Pirates of the Caribbean, is now
Chairman of the rapidly shrinking Glencore! Does lightning ever strike twice?
“There’s danger in just shoveling out money to people who say, ‘My life is a little harder than it used to be, at a certain place you’ve got to say to the people, ‘Suck it in and cope, buddy. Suck it in and cope.’”
Proper Charlie Munger.
Glencore's Wild Ride Has Investors Asking: Can It Happen Again?
October 1, 2015 — 4:15 PM BST Updated on October 2, 2015 — 3:13 AM BST
From London to New York to Hong Kong, the frantic question kept coming:
could this be another Lehman?But nowhere did it cause more alarm than inside Glencore Plc -- the Swiss commodities giant that had suddenly found itself at the epicenter of a global panic on Monday.
What began that morning in London, with a sudden plunge in Glencore’s share price, cascaded across oceans and time zones and left the company’s billionaire chief executive, Ivan Glasenberg, scrambling to calm anxious shareholders, creditors and trading partners.
Days later, even as Glencore regained most of the $6 billion of shareholder wealth erased in a few hours, many investors wondered if Glasenberg can hold the markets at bay. Few market players, including people close to Glencore, are able to pinpoint why a blue-chip member of the FTSE-100 Index -- even one that had been under pressure from sliding commodities prices -- lost almost a third of its value in a blink. And that, investors worry, suggests this could all happen again.
"There’s more pain to be had," said Serge Berger, a Zurich-based trader at Blue Oak Advisors LLC. “I don’t think the story is over.”
This report of how the fear spread and was eventually pacified is the product of interviews with 13 bankers, investors, and others involved in this week’s events, all of whom asked not to be identified discussing a private matter. A spokesman for Glencore declined to comment.
Monday started out as just another workday in Baar, the tiny town where Glencore is based. The village could easily pass for a Swiss backwater, except for the billions of dollars worth of commodities that quietly course through Glencore’s headquarters on Baarermattstrasse, between the lake and the Alpine hills.
Glasenberg, a former coal trader, has honed his skills over more than 30 years in the commodity-trading business since he joined a predecessor firm, Marc Rich & Co., in 1984. He was part of a $1.2 billion management buyout from Rich in 1994, when the company was renamed Glencore. A 2011 initial public offering -- at the peak of a 10-year commodity boom -- made him a billionaire on paper, with a stake worth about $9 billion.
At the worst of Monday’s panic, that holding was worth $1.2 billion.
What unfolded when the London markets opened at 8 a.m. stunned mining-industry veterans.
More
Glencore Slides as Recovery Fades After Three-Day Roller Coaster
October 1, 2015 — 8:05 AM BST Updated on October 1, 2015 — 5:18 PM BST
Glencore Plc’s rebound ran out of steam after an ascent that briefly
recouped the $6 billion in market value it lost Monday.The shares lost 0.6 percent to close at 91.02 pence in London after earlier gaining as much as 8.2 percent. Trading was halted for five minutes because of increased volatility.
Glencore has endured a roller-coaster week with unprecedented volatility for a company that went public in 2011 at 530 pence a share. The mining and trading firm sank 29 percent on Monday to 68.62 pence on concern over its debt load and ability to withstand sinking commodity prices. It spent most of the rest of the week recovering those losses as investors spied a bargain.
Glencore sought to reassure investors on Tuesday, saying it had “absolutely no solvency issues” and its funding was secure. It also aims to raise more than $1 billion selling future gold and silver output, according to two people familiar with the situation.
“It seems the company is now leaving no stone unturned in order to pay down debt,” Investec Plc said in a note to investors on Thursday. “Maybe the quiet voice of reason is beginning to be heard.” The same investment bank on Monday had said there would be little value left for Glencore’s shareholders should low commodity prices persist.
Chief Executive Officer Ivan Glasenberg is working on a debt-cutting plan including sales of assets, halting dividends and a $2.5 billion share sale completed last month. Glencore hired banks to sell a stake in its agricultural business, said people familiar with the deal.
Credit-default swaps insuring Glencore’s debt for five years rose to 727 basis points from 679 on Wednesday, according to S&P Capital IQ’s CMA, indicating the securities are more risky.
---- Tony Hayward, the company’s chairman and the former CEO of BP Plc, bought 100,000 shares priced at 91 pence each, according to a filing on Wednesday. John J. Mack, a director of Glencore and the former chief executive officer of Morgan Stanley, bought 550,000 shares at 80.78 pence each on Tuesday, a separate filing showed.
At its height in 2014, Glencore was worth more than $85 billion after its $29 billion all-share takeover of Xstrata Plc, then the world’s biggest coal exporter. Now, the market value has shrunk to about $20 billion as investors fled the business, which carries more debt than its rivals to fund its trading operations.
The company, based in Baar, Switzerland, trades everything from wheat to oil to cobalt. It’s the biggest exporter of power-station coal, with more than 30 mines in Australia, Colombia and South Africa and is among the top three agricultural exporters in Russia, the European Union, Canada and Australia. It also controls more than 150 mining and metallurgical, oil production and agricultural assets and employs about 180,000 people.
More
We close for the week with a look
at the 3rd quarter just passed. Phew, and with China still slowing
that was just for starters.
Here’s how ugly the third quarter was for stocks and commodities
Published: Oct 1, 2015 11:06 a.m. ET
Weakest quarter for risk assets in years: Deutsche Bank
Needless to say, September and the third quarter overall were tough for many investors.“The third quarter of 2015 proved to be the weakest quarter for risk assets for some years and most market participants are probably glad to see the back of it,” wrote Jim Reid, global strategist at Deutsche Bank, in a Thursday note. “Indeed Q3 saw the poorest quarterly performance for the S&P 500 SPX, +0.20% (-6.4%) and the Stoxx 600 SXXP, -0.44% (-8.4%) since Q3 2011. It was also the worst quarter for the Nikkei NIK, -0.36% (-14%) since 2010 whereas in [emerging markets] the Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +0.48% (-28%) and Bovespa BVSP, +0.56% (-15%) posted their worst quarterly scorecard since 2008.
September on its own was pretty brutal, with 27 of Deutsche Bank’s 42
selected global asset classes ending the month with losses.
“In many ways, September picked up many of the unresolved issues that we
left behind in August,” Reid wrote. The selloff in commodities and emerging
markets gained more momentum on deepening recession fears that, in turn, raised
more questions about the sustainability of global growth, he said.
More
Only 3 commodities have managed to escape 2015 carnage
Published: Sept 30, 2015 8:02 a.m. ET
It’s really tough to find a commodity that’s doing well this year.As the third quarter draws to an end, most commodities have posted losses year to date, with lumber LBX5, -0.40% coffee KCZ5, +0.08% and aluminum suffering the largest declines year-to-date.
Rough rice RRX5, -0.41% cocoa CCZ5, -0.55% and cotton CTZ5, +0.00% are among the only major traded commodities to see prices climb since the beginning of the year.
“The commodities asset class continues to be the worst of the worst in a market full of struggling investments,” said Adam Koos, president of Libertas Wealth Management Group Inc. “There just isn’t enough momentum and strength in the commodities sectors to warrant anything other than speculative dollars, at least through the end of the year, if not beyond.”
---- Lumber futures have seen the largest drop so far this year, down by nearly 35% as of Monday.
“China’s currency devaluation and their drop in lumber imports could be one factor contributing to the drop,” Koos said.
The Canadian tariff on lumber also expires on Oct. 12 and that may “add increased competition and supply from Canada—potentially at lower prices and higher profits than U.S. mills can hold a candle to,” he said.
Coffee, meanwhile, has taken the second-largest hit, down 28.8% for the year so far as Brazil and Colombia boost exports to customers buying with U.S. dollars, in an effort to help offset losses from weakness in their local currencies.
More,
including horror table.
The whole history of civilization is strewn with creeds and institutions which were invaluable at first, and deadly afterwards.
Walter Bagehot.
At the Comex silver depositories
Thursday final figures were: Registered 43.74 Moz, Eligible 120.51 Moz, Total
164.25 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
If you own a diesel car of any description, look
away now.
New Euro 6 Diesel Engine Cars Struggling with Very High Emissions
Published on September 29, 2015 at 7:26 AM
Emission measurements conducted by Institute of Transport Economics in Norway, in collaboration with VTT in Finland, shows that new Euro 6 cars with diesel engines are struggling with too high NOx emissions in real traffic.
Volkswagen has admitted cheating in emission tests in the United States
by making its cars appear more environmentally friendly than they are, our
study is no less relevant for a European context.
From 2015 EURO 6 emission standards where introduced for cars and
similar EURO VI requirements for heavy vehicles. These requirements are
including NOx and particulate matter from new cars.
Since 2011, TØI and VTT have conducted emission measurements of 12 heavy
vehicles with Euro VI engines, and seven Euro 6 diesel cars. In addition,
several petrol vehicles (Euro 5 and 6) and diesel vehicles (Euro 5) are
measured. All vehicles were tested in laboratory under conditions that as far
as possible should correspond to the actual use of the vehicles.
Our measurements show that Euro 6 type approved private cars with diesel
engines have 4-20 times higher emission of NOx in city traffic and during cold
weather than the type approval limit value (0,08 g/km). The average emission of
NOx from the tested Euro 6 private cars with diesel engines was also about
three times higher than the average emission from the tested city buses and
heavy vehicles with Euro VI engines.
In real traffic, Euro 5 diesel cars and the seven tested Euro 6
passenger cars with diesel engines generally have low emissions of particles
(PM). The limit value for Euro 6 approval is significantly higher than what we
measure from new Euro 6- approved diesel vehicles under all driving conditions.
New diesel cars have, in other words efficient and well-functioning particle
filters.
Modern heavy vehicles including city buses with Euro VI engines have low
emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and exhaust particles (PM) for all types of
test cycles. The reductions are more than 90% compared to the emissions from
previous Euro V generations.
Figure 1 (See attachetd file): Comparison between limit values from EUs
type approval regulations (black clouds) to emissions in “real life” city
traffic from the average Euro 6 diesel passenger car. NOx, PM and CO2
emission when using the Helsinki city cycle. Measured at +23 °C (red clouds)
and -7 °C (blue clouds). The size of the red and blue clouds indicate the
difference in emission from the emission in the type approval test (NEDC).
Figure credit: Institute of Transport Economics
Figure 2 (See attached file): New heavy vehicles with Euro VI approved
diesel engines have very low emission of all types of local emissions. NOx
emission from new passenger cars with Euro 6 diesel engines under demanding
city driving conditions is still a challenge for urban air quality. The
emissions shown are typical for demanding city-driving for passenger cars and
city-buses, respectively. Figure credit: Institute of Transport Economics
For fuel consumption and exhaust emissions of CO2, the values
from all kinds of new light vehicles are higher than what is measured in the
type approval cycle NEDC. Type approval values for CO2 emissions
from cars are, despite the fact that they are low, in proportion to the size of
CO2 emissions in real traffic. A car that has low CO2
emissions in type approval have as a rule somewhat higher emissions (20 95 %)
in real traffic. A car that has high CO2 emissions in type approval
will have even higher emissions in real traffic. The low emission values from
the type approval may give the impression that the cars are more
environmentally friendly than they actually are.
The study was funded by the Norwegian Public Roads Administration, as
part of the "EMIROAD" program.
http://www.azocleantech.com/news.aspx?newsID=22548
Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it.Mark Twain.
Solar & Related Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this new section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?Making batteries with portabella mushrooms
Porous structure of portabella mushrooms is key to making efficient batteries that could power cell phones, electric vehicles
Date:
September 29, 2015
Source:
University of California - Riverside
Summary:
Can portabella mushrooms stop cell phone batteries from degrading over time?
Researchers think so. They have created a new type of lithium-ion battery anode
using portabella mushrooms, which are inexpensive, environmentally friendly and
easy to produce.
Can portabella mushrooms stop cell phone batteries from degrading over
time?
Researchers at the University of California, Riverside Bourns College of
Engineering think so.
They have created a new type of lithium-ion battery anode using
portabella mushrooms, which are inexpensive, environmentally friendly and easy
to produce. The current industry standard for rechargeable lithium-ion battery
anodes is synthetic graphite, which comes with a high cost of manufacturing
because it requires tedious purification and preparation processes that are
also harmful to the environment.
With the anticipated increase in batteries needed for electric vehicles
and electronics, a cheaper and sustainable source to replace graphite is
needed. Using biomass, a biological material from living or recently living
organisms, as a replacement for graphite, has drawn recent attention because of
its high carbon content, low cost and environmental friendliness.
UC Riverside engineers were drawn to using mushrooms as a form of
biomass because past research has established they are highly porous, meaning
they have a lot of small spaces for liquid or air to pass through. That
porosity is important for batteries because it creates more space for the
storage and transfer of energy, a critical component to improving battery
performance.
In addition, the high potassium salt concentration in mushrooms allows
for increased electrolyte-active material over time by activating more pores,
gradually increasing its capacity.
A conventional anode allows lithium to fully access most of the material
during the first few cycles and capacity fades from electrode damage occurs
from that point on. The mushroom carbon anode technology could, with
optimization, replace graphite anodes. It also provides a binderless and
current-collector free approach to anode fabrication.
"With battery materials like this, future cell phones may see an
increase in run time after many uses, rather than a decrease, due to apparent
activation of blind pores within the carbon architectures as the cell charges
and discharges over time," said Brennan Campbell, a graduate student in
the Materials Science and Engineering program at UC Riverside.
The research findings were outlined in a paper, "Bio-Derived,
Binderless, Hierarchically Porous Carbon Anodes for Li-ion Batteries,"
published in the journal Scientific Reports. It was authored by Cengiz
Ozkan and Mihri Ozkan, both professors in the Bourns College of Engineering,
and three of their current or former graduate students: Campbell, Robert
Ionescu and Zachary Favors.
More
Another autumn
weekend, what other diesel and mining horrors can our misanthropic media dig
up? Here in southeast England, it’s time to get out into the woods to start to
harvest God’s free gift of sweet edible chestnuts. In my neck of the woods,
they have just started to drop this week. Have a great weekend everyone. Try
not to breathe if driving a diesel.
Giant Vampire Squid is causing havoc. He’s eating all the livestock and demanding extortionate bailouts via his henchman the horrible Talking Chair from the G-20. Nearly bankrupt Old King Glencore Coal has decided to marry off his daughter to a rich Prince from a Chinese land far away….
Panto season soon.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September
DJIA: +41 Down. NASDAQ:
+138 Down. SP500: +65 Down.
No comments:
Post a Comment