Baltic Dry Index. 774 -12 Brent Crude 48.12
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
Quit while you’re ahead. All the best gamblers do.
Baltasar Gracián y Morales. Jesuit.
With everyone in the world, from Prime Minister Cameron down to his shoe
shine boy Osborne, betting on China to lead the way in a new global recovery,
it seems like a good idea to focus on China this Monday. All the more so as
China’s communist leaders gather later today to conjure up the next five year
plan. To this old dinosaur trader, this
new China bet has 50:50 odds at best. At
worst, a total wipe-out, as a 7 gets
rolled before the point.
Below, the state of the bets this morning.
If you must play, decide upon
three things at the start:
the rules of the game, the stakes, and the quitting time.
the rules of the game, the stakes, and the quitting time.
Chinese Proverb
Asian stocks advance on China rate cut, US tech earnings
MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.5 percent to hit its highest since Aug. 12, led by 1.2 percent gains in Honk Kong .HSI. Japan's Nikkei .N225 rose 1.1 percent to a two-month high.
The surprise move by China lifted risk assets that had been already boosted by Thursday's message from the European Central Bank that it stood ready to enhance quantitative easing and cut interest rates to even deeper negative levels.
"These moves by the ECB and China are raising speculation that the Bank of Japan will act later on this week as well," Masahiro Ichikawa, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management. The BOJ will hold its next policy review on Friday.
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Barclays to BlackRock Say the China Rebound Rally Won't Last
October 25, 2015 — 4:00 PM GMT Updated on October 26, 2015 — 2:43 AM GMT
The rebound in Chinese equities spurred by the government’s efforts
to boost growth will probably fade as the measures underscore fundamental
weakness in the world’s second-largest economy, according to Barclays Plc, Blackfriars
Asset Management Ltd. and BlackRock Inc.A $582 million exchange-traded fund tracking mainland stocks jumped to a two-month high in the U.S. on Friday as the People’s Bank of China, after the close of local trading, announced its sixth interest-rate cut since November. The gain pushed the advance from this year’s low in August to 23 percent. The rebound has been driven in large part by speculation that the government will move more aggressively to bolster an economy projected to expand in 2015 at the slowest pace in a quarter century.
China has used a range of measures to try to control a drop-off in gross domestic product growth, which peaked at 14.2 percent in 2007 and will probably slow to 6.8 percent this year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. In addition to lowering interest rates and banks’ reserve requirements, the government has introduced targeted stimulus to the real estate, auto and casino industries. While data this month showed GDP increased 6.9 percent in the third quarter, the expansion was boosted by a surge in financial services because of an increase in securities trading.
---- “Short-term the markets will take this positively,” Tony Hann, head of equities at Blackfriars Asset Management in London, which invests in Asian stocks, said by phone Friday. “Longer term, there are more issues that need to be solved before one could be uniformly bullish about China.”
---- As Chinese leaders gather this week to formulate policies for the nation’s next five-year economic and social plan, they are expected to announce a dismantling of currency controls, lower barriers for foreign non-bank financial firms, emphasize home-grown technologies and prioritize population growth. Officials are targeting GDP expansion of about 7 percent for 2015.
“The market has already priced in the possibility of China stability and
policy action,” Amer Bisat, managing director and portfolio manager for
emerging markets at BlackRock, said by phone on Friday. “Policy actions are
supportive, but you need the fundamental picture to improve.”
While China should avoid a “severe” contraction, an economic slowdown is
“absolutely necessary” for an economy that took on too much debt too quickly
and “invested in capacity that became excessive in nature,” Bisat said.
----
“This is not just a flash in the pan,” Brian Jacobsen, who helps oversee $242
billion as the chief portfolio strategist at Wells Fargo Advantage Funds in
Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin, said by phone on Friday. “The timing is
particularly important. They are cutting rates ahead of the fifth plenum, where
they are really going to pull out the big guns to try and support growth.”
---- Copper futures declined for the fifth time in six days on Friday as commodity traders shifted from optimism over China’s interest-rate cut to focusing on the nation’s lackluster demand for raw materials. The Asian country accounts for almost half of global demand for the metal.
“If the economy was growing so close to the target, there would be no
need for stimulus,” Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley
Investment Management, said on Bloomberg Television on Friday. “The Chinese
government is obviously really worried by what they see and they feel compelled
to act.”
China Focus: CPC to hold key plenum in October, discuss 13th five-year development plan
BEIJING, July 20 (Xinhua) -- The 18th Communist Party of China (CPC)
Central Committee will hold its fifth plenary session in Beijing in October.
The announcement was made after a meeting of the Political Bureau of the
CPC Central Committee held Monday.
High on the agenda is the discussion of the 13th five-year plan of
national development (2016-2020). The five years from 2016 is a critical stage
for building a moderately prosperous society in all aspects. The 13th five-year
development plan will focus on realizing this goal, said a statement issued
after the meeting.
China is entering a new normal of economic development and facing not
only great strategic opportunities but complicated and tough challenges, the
statement said.
"We need to correctly perceive the fundamental changes and respond
to risks and challenges more effectively," the statement said.
"Upon the solid basis laid in the past three decades of reform and
opening-up, we should have firm confidence and strong initiative and pool our
resources to realize our goal."
Development is still the first priority during the 13th five-year
period, according to the statement.
More
CPC convenes key meeting on 13th five-year plan
By Xinhua Monday, October 26,
2015, 12:03
BEIJING -- Leaders of the Communist Party of China (CPC) met in Beijing on
Monday to discuss an economic blueprint that will set the direction and pace
for the world's second largest economy over the next five years.The fifth plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee will review proposals for a new five-year plan for the country's national economic and social development from 2016-2020.
A final plan, after taking into account these proposals, will still need to be ratified by the annual session of China's top legislature in March next year before taking effect.
The CPC Central Committee Political Bureau will also report its work to the Central Committee during this week's meeting.
The CPC has regularly offered suggestions for China's economic and social development plans since the early years of the people's republic in order to help guide policy.
This week's four-day meeting comes at a time when the world economic powerhouse has entered a "new normal" state of slowed growth.
China's economy expanded 6.9 percent in the third quarter of 2015, the first time quarterly growth has dropped below 7 percent since the second quarter of 2009, the height of the global recession.
Other poor figures also added to the disappointment. Industrial production was lower than expected, with September growth at a six-month low. Fixed-asset investment continued to slow and power use was also weak.
The new five-year plan, China's 13th, has henceforth garnered increasing attention from observers both home and abroad.
So far, few details of the new program, the first of its kind under the leadership of Chinese President Xi Jinping, has been made available to the general public, although authorities said they have previously solicited public opinions on the new plan in a limited scope.
Like in previous five-year plans, a GDP growth target is likely to be included. Market estimates that the growth target for 2016-2020 will be put between 6.5 and 7 percent.
http://www.chinadailyasia.com/nation/2015-10/26/content_15334366.html
The gambling known as business looks with austere disfavour upon the business known as gambling.
Ambrose Bierce
At the Comex silver depositories Friday
final figures were: Registered 43.53 Moz, Eligible 118.79 Moz, Total 162.32
Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Below, yet more reason to doubt China’s scripted
official figures. No one knows what China’s real economic figures are. Their
underground economy is highly likely to be under counted, but that underground
economy was also highly likely to be the most impacted by China’s shadow
banking contraction after China’s stock market collapsed back in July. There is
every reason to think that China’s economy, far from expanding at 6.9
percent, if not actually already
contracting, is on the cusp of contracting. A whole flotilla of commodity
behemoths, will sink, if China contracts, and global industrial commodities
will enter a multi-year depression.
In gambling the many must lose in order that
the few may win.
George Bernard
Shaw
Putting China's "6.9% GDP Growth" In Context
10/24/2015 19:53 -0400 By Michael Lebowtiz
In our latest article, “China Growth – Miracle or Mirage” published October 20, 2015, we questioned whether China’s perfectly forecasted and uniquely steady economic growth is a mirage. On Friday morning, following Chinese Premiere Li’s comment that growth was still in a “reasonable range”, China’s central bank (PBoC) proceeded to cut interest rates as well as the required deposit reserve ratio for major banks. The language of the Premier and the actions of the PBoC are contradictory. Their actions in conjunction with their words offer even more evidence to believe reported growth is a mirage and the correct answer to the question.This postscript offers a series of facts and recent economic data to lend further context toward determining whether China’s growth is, in fact, a miracle or a mirage. Before viewing the statistics below take a moment to consider the following: If China’s economy is in fact
humming along at a “reasonable” 6.9% pace, then what is the logic and motivation behind aggressively easier monetary policy? Put another way, what don’t we know about the Chinese economy?
Central Bank Actions
- 1yr Benchmark Lending Rate: Since November 2014 China has cut their 1 year interest rate 6 times. Over this period the rate has been lowered from 5.60% to 4.35%
- Required Deposit Reserve Ratio for Major Banks (determines amount of leverage banks can take and therefore the amount of loans they can make): Since February 2015 China has lowered it 4 times from 19.50% to 17.50%.
- Renminbi: Since August China devalued their currency 2.8%
- China export trade: -8.8% year to date
- China import trade: -17.6% year to date
- China imports from Australia: -27.3% year over year
- Industrial output crude steel: -3% year to date
- Cement output: -3.2% year over year
- Industrial output electricity: -3.1% year over year
- China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index: 49.8 (below 50 is contractionary)
- China Services Purchasing Managers Index: 50.5 (below 50 is contractionary)
- Railway freight volume: -17.34% year over year
- Electricity total energy consumption: -.20% year over year
- Consumer price index (CPI): +1.6% year over year
- Producer price index (PPI): -5.9% year over year, 43 consecutive months of declines
- China hot rolled steel price index: -35.5% year to date
- Fixed asset investment: +10.3% (averaged +23% 2009-2014)
- Retail sales: +10.9% the slowest growth in 11 years
- Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index: -30% since June
Below, the official version.
China central bank sees 'very normal' growth of 6-7 percent in next few years
China will be able to keep annual economic growth at around 6-7 percent
over the next three to five years, a top People's Bank of China (PBOC)
policymaker said on Saturday, a day after the bank cut interest rates for the
sixth time in less than a year.
The comments from Yi Gang, vice governor of the People's Bank of China,
appeared to be aimed at reassuring investors this level of growth, China's
slowest pace in two decades but still faster than other major economies, is the
Chinese economy's "new normal".
"China's future economic growth will still be relatively quick.
Around seven, six-point-something. These will all be very normal," he told
a conference in Beijing.
As well as cutting interest rates on Friday, the PBOC lowered the amount
of cash that banks must hold as reserves.
Both moves were bids to jumpstart growth in China's slowing economy, a
drag on global growth that has been of major concern in emerging markets and
other leading economies.
More
When I was young, people called me a
gambler.
As the scale of my operations increased
I became known as a speculator.
Now I am called a banker.
But I have been doing the same thing all the time.
As the scale of my operations increased
I became known as a speculator.
Now I am called a banker.
But I have been doing the same thing all the time.
Sir Ernest Cassel
Solar & Related Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this new section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?Cooling the air with sunlight
Date: October 23, 2015
Source: Investigación y Desarrollo
Summary: A firm has developed an evaporative cooler that has
an integrated photovoltaic system isolated from the electrical network, which
enables to refresh an area of approximately 200 square meters.
GeckoLogic firm developed an evaporative cooler that has an integrated
photovoltaic system isolated from the electrical network, which enables to
refresh an area of approximately 200 square meters.
The advantage of this product is that it works exclusively with sunlight
and water, which makes it self-sustaining. It also entails the advantage of
eliminating the need to connect it to a conventional power source. In addition
to only using clean energy it reduces the environmental impact caused by the
emission of greenhouse gases that traditional systems cause.
Victor Sotelo Armengol, commercial director of the company located in
Baja California, Mexican west coast, explained that this air cooling system
based on clean energy that is supplied with water and has photovoltaic modules
that can operate for 12 continuous hours. With its development the team aims to
eliminate 40 percent of the total consumption of electric energy used by
companies for air conditioning.
Moreover, the evaporative cooler is aimed for use in industrial
commercial applications requiring large areas. However, technology and
cost-effectiveness offered by the air conditioner GeckoLogic allows both energy
performance and scalable architecture to be used in homes.
Sotelo Armengol explained that before the air cools, it must pass
through a tank of water, which evaporates and decreases the air temperature by
15 degrees.
Although the system requires water to operate, the amount of liquid that
is spent is lower compared to the environmental damage caused by the
refrigerant gas and electricity used by traditional systems.
"It's an industrial grade evaporative cooler that is powered only
by solar cells, without connecting to the electrical network. It can be
described as an air cannon with a fan that comes with photovoltaic cells and
can be mounted on a building," the commercial director explained.
The equipment performance is of two thousand square feet for every three
liters of water, the technology is already patented in Mexico and might even
work with sea water, after a series of small adjustments.
More
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September
DJIA: +41 Down. NASDAQ:
+138 Down. SP500: +65 Down.
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