Baltic Dry Index. 900 -26 Brent Crude 48.79
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
"Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate… it will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people."
Andrew Mellon.
Despite the usual attempt to dress up stock markets for the end of the month, and more importantly, the end of quarter, to prevent or slow redemptions from mutual funds and hedge funds, yesterday’s action was abysmal. The bear is back from hibernation. Worse, October is the traditional crash season for troubled stock markets, and none are more troubled than our current stock markets. After eight years of QE forever and ZIRP, and lately NIRP, a slowing China has set off a deepening commodity crash, in turn crashing commodity stocks and emerging markets, generating a new slump in the global economy.
All out of ammo, our flotilla of Goldmanite central banksters hype up about a recovery that never was, and lie shattered like Humpty Dumpty at the base of the wall. But no one is fooled by yesterday’s bounce or Glencore’s end of quarter recovery. The global commodity giants are all deep into Ebola debt territory.
"We shouldn't pour cold water on everything. We, the eight or nine players in global investment banking, have a very good future."
Deutsche Bank, CEO Josef Ackermann. Davos, January 2007.
European stocks finish higher, but post worst quarterly loss in four years
Published: Sept 30, 2015 12:04 p.m. ET
European stock markets staged a solid rebound, finishing sharply higher in
Wednesday trade, but still logged their steepest quarterly decline in four
years.The major equity benchmarks stayed in green territory even after eurozone inflation data showed consumer prices dropped in September.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index SXXP, +2.52% jumped 2.5% to end at 347.77, after shedding 2.9% over the last two trading days on concerns about China’s slowing economy.
“There’s nothing bullish out overnight to warrant [Wednesday’s] rise, just sellers and short sellers getting a little hesitant about hitting the button. Make no mistake, we’re heading lower; it’s just a case of when,” said Jonathan Sudaria, night dealer at London Capital Group, in a note.
He called Wednesday’s rally a “dead cat bounce,” which is a small, brief recovery in assets that have taken a recent beating.
Fears that the world’s second-largest economy is heading for a so-called hard landing has been a prevalent theme this quarter and has sent global equity markets sharply lower. The pan-European benchmark logged an 8.8% quarterly loss, the largest since the third quarter of 2011.
More
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/european-stocks-set-for-worst-quarter-in-four-years-2015-09-30?dist=tcountdown
2015 Is Turning Out to Be a Terrible Year for Investors
September 30, 2015 — 5:57 PM BST Updated on September 30, 2015 — 10:19
PM BST
For investors around the world, 2015 is turning into a year to forget.
Stocks, commodities and currency funds are all in the red, and even the measly
gains in bonds are being wiped out by what little inflation there is in the
global economy.
Rounding out its steepest quarterly descent in four years, the MSCI All
Country World Index of shares is down 6.6 percent in 2015 including dividends.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index has slumped 16 percent, while a Parker Global
Strategies LLC index of currency funds dropped 1.8 percent. Fixed income has
failed to offer much of a haven: Bank of America Corp.’s global debt index
gained just 1 percent, less than the 2.5 percent increase in world consumer
prices shown in an International Monetary Fund index.
After three years in a virtuous cycle of rising share prices and
unprecedented monetary easing, markets are now sinking as emerging economies
from China to Brazil weaken and corporate profits slump. Analysts have cut
their global growth estimates for 2015 to 3 percent from 3.5 percent at the
start of the year, and the turmoil has added pressure on central banks to
prolong their stimulus programs, with traders scaling back forecasts for a
Federal Reserve interest-rate increase by year-end.
Investors suffered the brunt of this year’s losses in the third quarter.
MSCI’s global equity index sank about 10 percent in the period, while
the Bloomberg commodity index lost 14 percent in its biggest slump since the
global financial crisis seven years ago. The average level of Bank of America’s
Market Risk index, a measure of price swings in equities, rates, currencies and
raw materials, was the most this quarter since the end of 2011. The Chicago
Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, a gauge of turbulence known as the
VIX, reached the highest since 2011 in August.
Morehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-30/global-markets-annus-horribilis-turning-everything-into-losers
Japanese Shipping Company Files for Bankruptcy Protection Over Glencore Fallout
September 30, 2015 — 4:01 PM BST Updated on October 1, 2015 — 4:20 AM
BST
The Chinese economic slowdown that’s caused a rout in mining giant
Glencore Plc’s stock price claimed a victim in Japan’s shipping industry,
sparking a jump in the default risk for other competitors and trading companies
reliant on the commodities and energy business.
Daiichi Chuo KK filed for bankruptcy protection in Tokyo on Tuesday with
120 billion yen ($1 billion) in liabilities, in the biggest failure by a
publicly-traded Japanese company this year. The cost to insure shipper Mitsui
OSK Lines Ltd.’s debt against nonpayment surged 43 basis points last month and
touched 156, the highest since October 2013, while trading house Mitsui &
Co.’s credit-default swaps climbed to the most since August 2012, CMA data
show. The Markit iTraxx Japan CDS index rose 19 basis points in September.
China is Japan’s biggest trading partner and its deceleration is
rippling through Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economy, which probably slipped
back into recession after unexpectedly weak industrial production in August,
according to a report by JPMorgan Chase & Co. on Wednesday. Daiichi Chuo
filed for bankruptcy protection this week after four consecutive years of
losses amid plunging freight rates and too many ships built to supply
commodities to Asia’s biggest economy.
“If you look at the big picture, China’s weakness is the reason why
Daiichi Chuo is heading for default,” said Mana Nakazora, the chief credit
analyst in Tokyo at BNP Paribas SA. “The market has lost confidence and it’s
now testing names where it can see the possibility of a Glencore-like
sell-off.”
----A Bloomberg index of commodity futures has fallen 50 percent since a 2011 high. Data on Monday showed Chinese industrial profits dropping the most in at least four years, while gauges of shares listed in Hong Kong and Shanghai were among the world’s worst performers in the third quarter as a stock boom turned to bust and data signaled a sharper slowdown for the nation’s economy.
The debt risk of other Japanese shippers and traders are also rising.
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd.’s CDS reached 138 basis points, the highest since
October last year, while Nippon Yusen KK’s swaps touched 80 basis points on
Sept. 29, a level unseen since November 2013, CMA data show. The default risk
of Marubeni Corp., a Tokyo-based trading company, surged to 132.5 on Wednesday,
the highest since January 2013.
Morehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-30/china-woes-battering-glencore-claim-japan-victim-as-risk-surges
Glencore Cuts Further 340 South Africa Jobs as Coal Prices Drop
September 30, 2015 — 7:53 PM BST
Glencore Plc is cutting a further 340 jobs in South Africa as the
company closes depleted coal mines to withstand a downturn in commodity prices.
Glencore has eliminated 240 jobs at its South Witbank coal mine in the
eastern Mpumalanga province and it plans to cut as many as 100 positions at the
nearby Witcons coal-processing plant, the company said in an e-mailed response
to questions on Wednesday.
Glencore has cut sections of its Optimum Coal unit this year, laying off
630 workers, responding to a more than 40 percent slump in coal prices since
the start of 2014. Optimum Coal is currently undergoing the local equivalent of
bankruptcy protection proceedings. Glencore also plans to shut its Eland
platinum mine, putting about 1,000 jobs at risk. Platinum prices have dropped
almost 50 percent since 2011.
Glencore’s shares plunged 29 percent on Monday amid concerns over the
company’s debt, before recouping most of the loss by Wednesday after reassuring
investors it had good liquidity. Even still, the company has lost more than
two-thirds of its market value since March.
The drop in commodity prices adds to the challenges of power shortages
and policy uncertainty that miners are also struggling to deal with in South
Africa, the world’s largest platinum and manganese producer.
More than 22,000 mining jobs are at risk in the country, according to
the National Union of Mineworkers, as companies including Anglo American Plc,
Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. and Lonmin Plc try to lower their costs.
How Glencore's Crazy Month Makes Greek Banks Look Tame
October 1, 2015 — 12:00 AM BST
Which was a bigger trauma for European stock investors: this summer’s
pummeling of Greek banks, or the last month in Glencore Plc? Based on value
lost, it’s the latter by far.
As much as $14.4 billion was erased from the mining company’s shares in
September -- about $4.4 billion more than was wiped out in a Greek bank index
in August. Glencore’s unprecedented volatility in the past 10 days is almost
double that of the Greek lenders.
After
going from a record 29 percent drop on Monday to a record 17 percent gain the
next day, the miner yesterday pared its monthly slump to 38 percent.
Glencore
stock moved an average of 7.4 percent a day in September. The FTSE/Athex
Banks Index, which includes companies such as National Bank of Greece SA
and Piraeus Bank SA, rose or fell 6.5 percent daily on average during this
year’s tumultuous months.
More
Below, the Fedster’s booming America. Buy the dips? The Walton’s are in firing mode. Well at least they’re not being fired at Christmas.
Christmas is coming and the geese are getting fat, Please put a billion in the bankster’s hat, If you haven’t got a billion, a million will do, If you haven’t got a million, then God damn you!
Ebenezer Squid.
Wal-Mart to cut hundreds of jobs at headquarters
Fewer than 500 employees are expected to lose their jobs and an announcement could be made as early as this Friday, according to one of sources, who declined to be named because the move had not been made public.
Wal-Mart declined to comment. News of the impending cuts was reported earlier on Wednesday by the Wall Street Journal.
---- Speculation of job losses has percolated in Bentonville for several weeks, fueled in part by reports on the matter by local media outlet City Wire. Recruiting firms have reported an influx of resumes from Wal-Mart employees concerned about losing their jobs and suppliers have braced for cuts that could have a knock-on impact on their local operations.
The cuts come as the world's largest retailer struggles to shore up its
profit margins, which have been weighed down by a $1 billion investment
announced earlier this year to increase wages for half a million store-level
workers and other cost pressures. The company's stock is down 26 percent so far
this year.
In August, Wal-Mart reported weaker quarterly earnings and lowered its
annual profit forecast, hit by higher labor costs, a squeeze on pharmacy
margins and the stronger dollar, which has crimped its overseas business.
Morehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/01/us-wal-mart-layoffs-idUSKCN0RV38620151001
The whole history of civilization is strewn with creeds and institutions which were invaluable at first, and deadly afterwards.
Walter Bagehot.
At the Comex silver depositories
Wednesday final figures were: Registered 44.54 Moz, Eligible 120.47 Moz, Total
165.01 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Today, how the Volkswagen scandal may do away with jobs of South Africa’s platinum miners.
How the Volkswagen scandal is shaking up platinum and palladium markets
Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2015
The emissions-rigging scandal at Volkswagen AG is causing major
distortions in the platinum and palladium markets, two precious metals that are
linked closely to the auto sector.
Platinum prices plunged below US$900 an ounce on Tuesday for the first
time since early 2009, and are down almost 10 per cent since Volkswagen’s sins
came to light on Sept. 18. It is not hard to see a link: About a third of all
platinum is used in catalytic converters, and most of that metal goes into
diesel engines.
Much of the money that left the platinum market shifted right over to
its sister metal palladium, which is up about eight per cent since Sept. 18.
Like platinum, palladium’s biggest use is as an auto-catalyst. But palladium is
primarily used in gasoline engines. Unlike diesel engines, gasoline engines
require very little platinum.
For trading desks looking to capitalize on Volkswagen’s woes, this was
an easy trade: Buy the metal that’s needed for gasoline engines, sell the one
linked to diesel.
“The speculative money was indicating that all of a sudden, because of
the scandal, no one will buy diesel cars anymore,” said Jessica Fung, a
commodity strategist at BMO Capital Markets.
Of course, Fung noted it’s not nearly that simple. Diesel cars are not
nearly as widespread as gasoline cars, nor are they about to disappear from the
roads. And then there is the question of Volkswagen itself.
At this stage, it is not clear how the German automaker will refit the
roughly 11 million cars that contain illegal software designed to cheat
emissions tests. It is possible that Volkswagen will place more powerful
catalytic converters in the engines to reduce emissions. If so, that would
require much more platinum and could provide a massive boost to global demand.
----It
does not take much to move the markets for these two metals (known jointly as
the platinum group metals, or PGMs). Both markets are very small, with demand
of roughly eight million ounces a year.
However, they have not moved in concert in recent years. Until 2015,
palladium was performing very well due to rising Chinese auto demand and
falling stockpiles in Russia. Platinum, on the other hand, was a laggard
because of a global over-supply situation. A long strike last year by platinum
miners in South Africa brought the market closer to balance, but it also showed
that above-ground inventories were far bigger than most people realized.
Some analysts have suggested that mine closures are needed to balance
the platinum market. But closing mines is very difficult to do in South Africa
because of political issues, and more than 80 per cent of global platinum
production comes out of that country.
More
You can always reason with a German. You can always reason with a barnyard animal, too, for all the good it does... The larger the German body, the smaller the German bathing suit and the louder the German voice issuing German demands and German orders to everybody who doesn't speak German. For this, and several other reasons, Germany is known as 'the land where Israelis learned their manners'.
P. J. O’Rourke
Solar & Related Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this new section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?
Today, more on our emerging New Carbon Age. We are leaving
last century’s equivalent of the Bronze Age and have entered the equivalent of the
Iron Age with the (re)discovery of graphene in 2004. 2004 was our equivalent of Sir Charles
Parsons invention of the modern steam turbine in 1884. Married to an electric
generator, it ushered in the Electric Age, plus change maritime commerce and
naval warfare.
Graphene band gap heralds new electronics
29 September 2015 Jon Cartwright
Scientists
in the US and France have produced graphene with a record high band
gap of half an electronvolt (0.5 eV), which they claim is sufficient to
produce useful graphene transistors. The band gap owes itself to highly
periodic bonding on a silicon carbide substrate.
Graphene, a single layer of carbon atoms arranged in a honeycomb-shaped lattice, exhibits a range of superlative properties. Since it was discovered in 2003, it has been found to have exceptional strength, thermal conductivity and electric conductivity. The last property makes the material ideal for the tiny contacts in electronic circuits, but ideally it would also make up the components – particularly transistors – themselves.
To do so, graphene would need to behave not just as a conductor but as a semiconductor, which is the key to the on–off switching operations performed by electronic components. Semiconductors are defined by their band gap: the energy required to excite an electron stuck in the valence band, where it cannot conduct electricity, to the conduction band, where it can. The band gap needs to be large enough so that there is a clear contrast between a transistor’s on and off states, and so that it can process information without generating errors.
Regular graphene has no band gap – its unusually rippled valence and conduction bands actually meet in places, making it more like a metal. Nonetheless, scientists have tried to tease them apart. By fabricating graphene in odd shapes, such as ribbons, band gaps up to 100 meV have been realised, but these are considered too small for electronics.
Edward Conrad at the Georgia Institute of Technology, US, and colleagues fabricated their graphene by epitaxial growth. In this method, a silicon carbide (SiC) substrate is heated to temperatures of 1360°C, at which point it begins to decompose and form graphene layers. The researchers found that the first of these layers, normally called the buffer layer, forms a band gap greater than 0.5 eV, because of the highly periodic way it bonds to the SiC substrate.
Guido Burkard, a physicist at the University of Konstanz in Germany who was not involved in the work, says this is ‘almost, but not quite’ as large as the band gap in regular semiconductors. ‘It remains to be seen whether the graphene produced in this way also possesses the favourable electronic properties of previously studied graphene samples,’ he adds, ‘but the result reported is certainly very promising.’
Conrad and colleagues’ epitaxial method for generating semiconducting graphene is not new. In 2006, a group led by Alessandra Lanzara at the University of California in Berkeley, US, investigated the second layer of graphene grown epitaxially above silicon carbine, and reported a band gap of 0.26 eV. Conrad says the main difference in his group’s work is the honing of the growth technique. ‘It turns out that crystalline order is extremely important to get this band gap, and they didn’t have that,’ he explains.
When Conrad and colleagues tried growing their graphene just 20°C lower than their favoured temperature, they found that the band gap was non-existent. Conrad likens the development to the early days of silicon electronics. ‘If you go back to the early days of silicon transistors in the 1960s, it was really about [finding] incredibly highly ordered crystals,’ he says. And the high cost of silicon-carbide wafers doesn’t matter at this stage, he adds. ‘The first [silicon] transistors they sold were $1,500. The point is, you get the device first, and you worry about the cost later.’
Conrad claims that his colleagues at Georgia Tech are already using his semiconducting graphene to make transistors, with on–off current ratios on the order of one million to one – ten times more than is required by regular electronics. ‘So, it’s starting to work,’ he says.
Charles Algernon Parsons
Sir Charles Algernon Parsons, OM, KCB, FRS (13 June 1854 – 11 February 1931)
was an Anglo-Irish
engineer,[1][2][3]
best known for his invention of the compound steam
turbine.[4]
He worked as an engineer on dynamo and turbine design, and power
generation, with great influence on the naval and electrical engineering fields. He also
developed optical equipment, for searchlights
and telescopes.
More
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September
DJIA: +41 Down. NASDAQ:
+138 Down. SP500: +65 Down.
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