Thursday, 1 October 2015

Dress Up Wednesday.



Baltic Dry Index. 900 -26        Brent Crude 48.79

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

"Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate… it will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people."

Andrew Mellon.

Despite the usual attempt to dress up stock markets for the end of the month, and more importantly, the end of quarter, to prevent or slow redemptions from mutual funds and hedge funds, yesterday’s action was abysmal. The bear is back from hibernation. Worse, October is the traditional crash season for troubled stock markets, and none are more troubled than our current stock markets. After eight years of QE forever and ZIRP, and lately NIRP, a slowing China has set off a deepening commodity crash, in turn crashing commodity stocks and emerging markets, generating a new slump in the global economy. 

All out of ammo, our flotilla of Goldmanite central banksters hype up about a recovery that never was, and lie shattered like Humpty Dumpty at the base of the wall. But no one is fooled by yesterday’s bounce or Glencore’s end of quarter recovery. The global commodity giants are all deep into Ebola debt territory.

"We shouldn't pour cold water on everything. We, the eight or nine players in global investment banking, have a very good future."

Deutsche Bank, CEO Josef Ackermann. Davos, January 2007.

European stocks finish higher, but post worst quarterly loss in four years

Published: Sept 30, 2015 12:04 p.m. ET
European stock markets staged a solid rebound, finishing sharply higher in Wednesday trade, but still logged their steepest quarterly decline in four years.

The major equity benchmarks stayed in green territory even after eurozone inflation data showed consumer prices dropped in September.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index SXXP, +2.52%  jumped 2.5% to end at 347.77, after shedding 2.9% over the last two trading days on concerns about China’s slowing economy.

“There’s nothing bullish out overnight to warrant [Wednesday’s] rise, just sellers and short sellers getting a little hesitant about hitting the button. Make no mistake, we’re heading lower; it’s just a case of when,” said Jonathan Sudaria, night dealer at London Capital Group, in a note.

He called Wednesday’s rally a “dead cat bounce,” which is a small, brief recovery in assets that have taken a recent beating.

Fears that the world’s second-largest economy is heading for a so-called hard landing has been a prevalent theme this quarter and has sent global equity markets sharply lower. The pan-European benchmark logged an 8.8% quarterly loss, the largest since the third quarter of 2011.
More
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/european-stocks-set-for-worst-quarter-in-four-years-2015-09-30?dist=tcountdown

2015 Is Turning Out to Be a Terrible Year for Investors

September 30, 2015 — 5:57 PM BST Updated on September 30, 2015 — 10:19 PM BST
For investors around the world, 2015 is turning into a year to forget. Stocks, commodities and currency funds are all in the red, and even the measly gains in bonds are being wiped out by what little inflation there is in the global economy.

Rounding out its steepest quarterly descent in four years, the MSCI All Country World Index of shares is down 6.6 percent in 2015 including dividends. The Bloomberg Commodity Index has slumped 16 percent, while a Parker Global Strategies LLC index of currency funds dropped 1.8 percent. Fixed income has failed to offer much of a haven: Bank of America Corp.’s global debt index gained just 1 percent, less than the 2.5 percent increase in world consumer prices shown in an International Monetary Fund index.

After three years in a virtuous cycle of rising share prices and unprecedented monetary easing, markets are now sinking as emerging economies from China to Brazil weaken and corporate profits slump. Analysts have cut their global growth estimates for 2015 to 3 percent from 3.5 percent at the start of the year, and the turmoil has added pressure on central banks to prolong their stimulus programs, with traders scaling back forecasts for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase by year-end.

Investors suffered the brunt of this year’s losses in the third quarter.

MSCI’s global equity index sank about 10 percent in the period, while the Bloomberg commodity index lost 14 percent in its biggest slump since the global financial crisis seven years ago. The average level of Bank of America’s Market Risk index, a measure of price swings in equities, rates, currencies and raw materials, was the most this quarter since the end of 2011. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, a gauge of turbulence known as the VIX, reached the highest since 2011 in August.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-30/global-markets-annus-horribilis-turning-everything-into-losers

Japanese Shipping Company Files for Bankruptcy Protection Over Glencore Fallout

September 30, 2015 — 4:01 PM BST Updated on October 1, 2015 — 4:20 AM BST
The Chinese economic slowdown that’s caused a rout in mining giant Glencore Plc’s stock price claimed a victim in Japan’s shipping industry, sparking a jump in the default risk for other competitors and trading companies reliant on the commodities and energy business.

Daiichi Chuo KK filed for bankruptcy protection in Tokyo on Tuesday with 120 billion yen ($1 billion) in liabilities, in the biggest failure by a publicly-traded Japanese company this year. The cost to insure shipper Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd.’s debt against nonpayment surged 43 basis points last month and touched 156, the highest since October 2013, while trading house Mitsui & Co.’s credit-default swaps climbed to the most since August 2012, CMA data show. The Markit iTraxx Japan CDS index rose 19 basis points in September.

China is Japan’s biggest trading partner and its deceleration is rippling through Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economy, which probably slipped back into recession after unexpectedly weak industrial production in August, according to a report by JPMorgan Chase & Co. on Wednesday. Daiichi Chuo filed for bankruptcy protection this week after four consecutive years of losses amid plunging freight rates and too many ships built to supply commodities to Asia’s biggest economy.

“If you look at the big picture, China’s weakness is the reason why Daiichi Chuo is heading for default,” said Mana Nakazora, the chief credit analyst in Tokyo at BNP Paribas SA. “The market has lost confidence and it’s now testing names where it can see the possibility of a Glencore-like sell-off.”

----A Bloomberg index of commodity futures has fallen 50 percent since a 2011 high. Data on Monday showed Chinese industrial profits dropping the most in at least four years, while gauges of shares listed in Hong Kong and Shanghai were among the world’s worst performers in the third quarter as a stock boom turned to bust and data signaled a sharper slowdown for the nation’s economy.

The debt risk of other Japanese shippers and traders are also rising. Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd.’s CDS reached 138 basis points, the highest since October last year, while Nippon Yusen KK’s swaps touched 80 basis points on Sept. 29, a level unseen since November 2013, CMA data show. The default risk of Marubeni Corp., a Tokyo-based trading company, surged to 132.5 on Wednesday, the highest since January 2013.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-30/china-woes-battering-glencore-claim-japan-victim-as-risk-surges

Glencore Cuts Further 340 South Africa Jobs as Coal Prices Drop

September 30, 2015 — 7:53 PM BST
Glencore Plc is cutting a further 340 jobs in South Africa as the company closes depleted coal mines to withstand a downturn in commodity prices.

Glencore has eliminated 240 jobs at its South Witbank coal mine in the eastern Mpumalanga province and it plans to cut as many as 100 positions at the nearby Witcons coal-processing plant, the company said in an e-mailed response to questions on Wednesday.

Glencore has cut sections of its Optimum Coal unit this year, laying off 630 workers, responding to a more than 40 percent slump in coal prices since the start of 2014. Optimum Coal is currently undergoing the local equivalent of bankruptcy protection proceedings. Glencore also plans to shut its Eland platinum mine, putting about 1,000 jobs at risk. Platinum prices have dropped almost 50 percent since 2011.

Glencore’s shares plunged 29 percent on Monday amid concerns over the company’s debt, before recouping most of the loss by Wednesday after reassuring investors it had good liquidity. Even still, the company has lost more than two-thirds of its market value since March.

The drop in commodity prices adds to the challenges of power shortages and policy uncertainty that miners are also struggling to deal with in South Africa, the world’s largest platinum and manganese producer.

More than 22,000 mining jobs are at risk in the country, according to the National Union of Mineworkers, as companies including Anglo American Plc, Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. and Lonmin Plc try to lower their costs.

How Glencore's Crazy Month Makes Greek Banks Look Tame

October 1, 2015 — 12:00 AM BST
Which was a bigger trauma for European stock investors: this summer’s pummeling of Greek banks, or the last month in Glencore Plc? Based on value lost, it’s the latter by far.

As much as $14.4 billion was erased from the mining company’s shares in September -- about $4.4 billion more than was wiped out in a Greek bank index in August. Glencore’s unprecedented volatility in the past 10 days is almost double that of the Greek lenders.

After going from a record 29 percent drop on Monday to a record 17 percent gain the next day, the miner yesterday pared its monthly slump to 38 percent.

Glencore stock moved an average of 7.4 percent a day in September. The FTSE/Athex Banks Index, which includes companies such as National Bank of Greece SA and Piraeus Bank SA, rose or fell 6.5 percent daily on average during this year’s tumultuous months.
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Below, the Fedster’s booming America. Buy the dips? The Walton’s are in firing mode. Well at least they’re not being fired at Christmas.

Christmas is coming and the geese are getting fat, Please put a billion in the bankster’s hat, If you haven’t got a billion, a million will do, If you haven’t got a million, then God damn you!

Ebenezer Squid.

Wal-Mart to cut hundreds of jobs at headquarters

Wed Sep 30, 2015 11:17pm EDT
Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N) is planning to lay off hundreds of people at its headquarters in Arkansas as part of the retail giant's efforts to pare costs, people familiar with the matter said.

Fewer than 500 employees are expected to lose their jobs and an announcement could be made as early as this Friday, according to one of sources, who declined to be named because the move had not been made public.

Wal-Mart declined to comment. News of the impending cuts was reported earlier on Wednesday by the Wall Street Journal.

---- Speculation of job losses has percolated in Bentonville for several weeks, fueled in part by reports on the matter by local media outlet City Wire. Recruiting firms have reported an influx of resumes from Wal-Mart employees concerned about losing their jobs and suppliers have braced for cuts that could have a knock-on impact on their local operations.

The cuts come as the world's largest retailer struggles to shore up its profit margins, which have been weighed down by a $1 billion investment announced earlier this year to increase wages for half a million store-level workers and other cost pressures. The company's stock is down 26 percent so far this year.

In August, Wal-Mart reported weaker quarterly earnings and lowered its annual profit forecast, hit by higher labor costs, a squeeze on pharmacy margins and the stronger dollar, which has crimped its overseas business.
More
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/01/us-wal-mart-layoffs-idUSKCN0RV38620151001

The whole history of civilization is strewn with creeds and institutions which were invaluable at first, and deadly afterwards.

Walter Bagehot.

At the Comex silver depositories Wednesday final figures were: Registered 44.54 Moz, Eligible 120.47 Moz, Total 165.01 Moz. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, how the Volkswagen scandal may do away with jobs of  South Africa’s platinum miners.

How the Volkswagen scandal is shaking up platinum and palladium markets

Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2015
The emissions-rigging scandal at Volkswagen AG is causing major distortions in the platinum and palladium markets, two precious metals that are linked closely to the auto sector.
Platinum prices plunged below US$900 an ounce on Tuesday for the first time since early 2009, and are down almost 10 per cent since Volkswagen’s sins came to light on Sept. 18. It is not hard to see a link: About a third of all platinum is used in catalytic converters, and most of that metal goes into diesel engines.
Much of the money that left the platinum market shifted right over to its sister metal palladium, which is up about eight per cent since Sept. 18. Like platinum, palladium’s biggest use is as an auto-catalyst. But palladium is primarily used in gasoline engines. Unlike diesel engines, gasoline engines require very little platinum.
For trading desks looking to capitalize on Volkswagen’s woes, this was an easy trade: Buy the metal that’s needed for gasoline engines, sell the one linked to diesel.
“The speculative money was indicating that all of a sudden, because of the scandal, no one will buy diesel cars anymore,” said Jessica Fung, a commodity strategist at BMO Capital Markets.
Of course, Fung noted it’s not nearly that simple. Diesel cars are not nearly as widespread as gasoline cars, nor are they about to disappear from the roads. And then there is the question of Volkswagen itself.
At this stage, it is not clear how the German automaker will refit the roughly 11 million cars that contain illegal software designed to cheat emissions tests. It is possible that Volkswagen will place more powerful catalytic converters in the engines to reduce emissions. If so, that would require much more platinum and could provide a massive boost to global demand.
----It does not take much to move the markets for these two metals (known jointly as the platinum group metals, or PGMs). Both markets are very small, with demand of roughly eight million ounces a year.
However, they have not moved in concert in recent years. Until 2015, palladium was performing very well due to rising Chinese auto demand and falling stockpiles in Russia. Platinum, on the other hand, was a laggard because of a global over-supply situation. A long strike last year by platinum miners in South Africa brought the market closer to balance, but it also showed that above-ground inventories were far bigger than most people realized.
Some analysts have suggested that mine closures are needed to balance the platinum market. But closing mines is very difficult to do in South Africa because of political issues, and more than 80 per cent of global platinum production comes out of that country.
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You can always reason with a German. You can always reason with a barnyard animal, too, for all the good it does... The larger the German body, the smaller the German bathing suit and the louder the German voice issuing German demands and German orders to everybody who doesn't speak German. For this, and several other reasons, Germany is known as 'the land where Israelis learned their manners'.

P. J. O’Rourke

Solar  & Related Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this new section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?

Today, more on our emerging New Carbon Age. We are leaving last century’s equivalent of the Bronze Age and have entered the equivalent of the Iron Age with the (re)discovery of graphene in 2004.  2004 was our equivalent of Sir Charles Parsons invention of the modern steam turbine in 1884. Married to an electric generator, it ushered in the Electric Age, plus change maritime commerce and naval warfare.

Graphene band gap heralds new electronics

29 September 2015 Jon Cartwright
Scientists in the US and France have produced graphene with a record high band gap of half an electronvolt (0.5 eV), which they claim is sufficient to produce useful graphene transistors. The band gap owes itself to highly periodic bonding on a silicon carbide substrate.

Graphene, a single layer of carbon atoms arranged in a honeycomb-shaped lattice, exhibits a range of superlative properties. Since it was discovered in 2003, it has been found to have exceptional strength, thermal conductivity and electric conductivity. The last property makes the material ideal for the tiny contacts in electronic circuits, but ideally it would also make up the components – particularly transistors – themselves.

To do so, graphene would need to behave not just as a conductor but as a semiconductor, which is the key to the on–off switching operations performed by electronic components. Semiconductors are defined by their band gap: the energy required to excite an electron stuck in the valence band, where it cannot conduct electricity, to the conduction band, where it can. The band gap needs to be large enough so that there is a clear contrast between a transistor’s on and off states, and so that it can process information without generating errors.

Regular graphene has no band gap – its unusually rippled valence and conduction bands actually meet in places, making it more like a metal. Nonetheless, scientists have tried to tease them apart. By fabricating graphene in odd shapes, such as ribbons, band gaps up to 100 meV have been realised, but these are considered too small for electronics.

Edward Conrad at the Georgia Institute of Technology, US, and colleagues fabricated their graphene by epitaxial growth. In this method, a silicon carbide (SiC) substrate is heated to temperatures of 1360°C, at which point it begins to decompose and form graphene layers. The researchers found that the first of these layers, normally called the buffer layer, forms a band gap greater than 0.5 eV, because of the highly periodic way it bonds to the SiC substrate.

Guido Burkard, a physicist at the University of Konstanz in Germany who was not involved in the work, says this is ‘almost, but not quite’ as large as the band gap in regular semiconductors. ‘It remains to be seen whether the graphene produced in this way also possesses the favourable electronic properties of previously studied graphene samples,’ he adds, ‘but the result reported is certainly very promising.’

Conrad and colleagues’ epitaxial method for generating semiconducting graphene is not new. In 2006, a group led by Alessandra Lanzara at the University of California in Berkeley, US, investigated the second layer of graphene grown epitaxially above silicon carbine, and reported a band gap of 0.26 eV. Conrad says the main difference in his group’s work is the honing of the growth technique. ‘It turns out that crystalline order is extremely important to get this band gap, and they didn’t have that,’ he explains.

When Conrad and colleagues tried growing their graphene just 20°C lower than their favoured temperature, they found that the band gap was non-existent. Conrad likens the development to the early days of silicon electronics. ‘If you go back to the early days of silicon transistors in the 1960s, it was really about [finding] incredibly highly ordered crystals,’ he says. And the high cost of silicon-carbide wafers doesn’t matter at this stage, he adds. ‘The first [silicon] transistors they sold were $1,500. The point is, you get the device first, and you worry about the cost later.’

Conrad claims that his colleagues at Georgia Tech are already using his semiconducting graphene to make transistors, with on–off current ratios on the order of one million to one – ten times more than is required by regular electronics. ‘So, it’s starting to work,’ he says.

Charles Algernon Parsons

Sir Charles Algernon Parsons, OMKCBFRS (13 June 1854 – 11 February 1931) was an Anglo-Irish engineer,[1][2][3] best known for his invention of the compound steam turbine.[4] He worked as an engineer on dynamo and turbine design, and power generation, with great influence on the naval and electrical engineering fields. He also developed optical equipment, for searchlights and telescopes.
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The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September

DJIA: +41 Down. NASDAQ: +138 Down. SP500: +65 Down. 

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