Baltic Dry Index. 881 -08 Brent Crude 48.86
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
“Alice:
How long is forever? White Rabbit: Sometimes, just one second.”
Alice
in Wonderland.
Bad news is the new good news, at least in global stocks. Given last Friday’s
US worrying jobs report, strongly suggesting that the US economy is slowing
again, if not actually starting a new recession, stocks rallied. Bad news out
of emerging markets and Europe, stocks rally. What could possibly go wrong?
Sadly I suspect that we will not have to wait too long to find out. But for the
moment, we continue on in our fool’s paradise. The central banksters plunge
protection teams of riggers and fixits, face a tsunami of arriving bad news.
S&P 500 gains for fifth session in longest winning streak for 2015
Published: Oct 5, 2015 5:20 p.m. ET
The S&P 500 on Monday rose for a fifth session in a row, its longest
winning streak this year, as a string of economic data appeared to push back
the timing of a Federal Reserve rate hike to 2016.“I would classify today—and the reversal last Friday—as a change in the perception of the location of risk,” said Ian Winer, director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities.
“The market decided Friday morning at 10:30 a.m. that pushing a rate rise out and keeping the easy money policies of this central bank was the most important cue on how to invest than the fundamentals of the economy,” he said.
The S&P 500 SPX, +1.83% rose 35.69 points, or 1.8%, to 1,987.05, with all 10 sectors higher after health-care sector rebounded.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.85% added 304.06 points, or 1.9%, to 16,776.43, with only Nike Inc. NKE, -0.75% in the red.
The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +1.56% advanced 73.49 points, or 1.6%, at 4,781.26, while the Russell 2000 RUT, +2.47% gained 27.52 points or 2.5%, to 1,141.64.
The rally comes on the heels of one of the biggest reversals for stocks in four years, when the market swooning from a weak jobs report turned sharply positive toward the end of Friday’s close of trading.
The weaker-than-projected jobs report fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve may be more circumspect about tightening monetary policy.
“It is a case where bad [news] is good,” said Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist at Capitol Securities Management. “Friday’s jobs data was bad and the odds are rising that any change in monetary policy will not occur until 2016 with consensus now expecting March.”
More
Economists cut Brazil's economic outlook for 2015
Published: Oct 5, 2015 7:56 a.m. ET
SAO PAULO--Economists again cut their outlook for Brazil's economic
performance for this year, as consumer and business confidence continue at
historic low levels.
Brazil's gross domestic product is expected to contract 2.85% this year,
according to a weekly central-bank survey of 100 economists, compared with
expectations last week for a contraction of 2.80%.
The forecast marked the 12th-consecutive downward revision in the weekly
survey of economists.
For the next year, economists maintained their view for a contraction of
1%.
In the meantime, the economists surveyed increased their estimate for
inflation in 2015, as measured by the consumer-price index, to 9.53% from
9.46%.
For next year, they increased their inflation estimate to 5.94% from
5.87%.
More
More signs the stuttering eurozone is grinding to a halt
Latest data for September show little sign of life for faltering single currency economy
Europe's economic recovery is showing dangerous signs of falling flat after another disappointing set of data from the single currency bloc of countries.• Europe needs €2.4 trillion to smash deflation threat, warn experts
September's combined Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) of the services and manufacturing sector fell to 53.6, from 54.3 in August. This suggests momentum has petered out after a spike in activity over the summer.
The weak numbers all but guarantee the European Central Bank will be pushed into further stimulus measures, ramping up its €1 trillion quantitative easing programme.
Economists suggest an announcement on more QE could be due at the end of the year.
----“The weakening of the pace of expansion in September raises the risk of growth fading further in the fourth quarter, which would in turn boost the likelihood of the ECB opening the QE taps further.”
September's numbers suggest growth remained stuck at 0.4pc in the third
quarter of the year, unchanged from the same period last year when the ECB had
not yet launched QE.
More
Britain's recovery loses steam as services activity dips to 29-month low
Activity across the economy is sliding towards levels normally associated with Bank of England stimulus, not higher rates, Markit warns
The UK's dominant services sector expanded at the weakest pace in nearly
two and a half years in September, in further evidence that Britain's recovery
lost steam in the third quarter.
Global economic uncertainty stemming from China, emerging markets and
unremarkable growth in the eurozone led to "hesitation" among
businesses in placing new orders, while the shock slowdown dragged down overall
growth.
Economists said the data suggested Britain started the fourth quarter
growing at a quarterly pace of just 0.3pc, following growth of 0.7pc in the
second quarter of 2015 and estimated growth of 0.5pc between July and
September.
The Markit/CIPS headline services PMI dropped to 53.3 in September, from a
reading of 55.6 in August. While this was still above the 50 level that divides
growth from contraction, output was at its lowest since April 2013 and well
below economists' forecast for a pick-up in activity to 56. Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, warned that activity was sliding towards territory that would usually prompt the Bank of England to cut rates or launch more quantitative easing to stimulate the economy. The data pushed down the pound against the dollar and euro.
More
In the growing Volkswagen dirty diesel fraud scandal, it’s become open season on VW. Payback time by the other auto manufacturers for Volkswagen’s price war at the depth of the Great Recession.
Fiat Chrysler Offers $1,700 Cash to Lure Volkswagen Drivers
October 5, 2015 — 3:10 PM BST Updated on October 5, 2015 — 4:50 PM BST
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV is seeking to lure customers away
from Volkswagen AG with rebates of as much as 1,500 euros ($1,700) in
Italy amid the German competitor’s woes over cheating on emissions tests.
Fiat Chrysler is offering the discounts on top of other incentives on
the trade-in of a car from any of Volkswagen’s brands, according to an internal
memo published in Il Giornale daily that was confirmed by dealers. A spokesman
for the Italian-U.S. manufacturer in Turin declined to comment.
While brand-swap discounts aren’t unusual, offers that specifically
target one company are rare. Fiat’s pitch comes as Volkswagen reels from the
biggest crisis in its history, and continues an antagonistic relationship
between the two carmakers. Fiat Chrysler Chief Executive Officer Sergio
Marchionne accused VW in 2012 of creating a “bloodbath” in Europe with its
pricing strategy as manufacturers struggled with a market slump. VW responded
by threatening to leave the ACEA, the industry’s main lobby in the region, which
was headed by Marchionne at the time.
The ACEA, of which VW is still a member, is now part of the growing
isolation of Europe’s biggest carmaker, which admitted Sept. 18 to installing a
“defeat device” in diesel-powered cars designed to fool emissions testers about
performance. The association said Sept. 23 that there was “no evidence” other
manufacturers are deliberately duping regulators. Volkswagen’s stock has
continued to decline since the revelation, while European competitors’ shares
have started to recover.
----Incentives that Fiat Chrysler is offering during October to Italian VW customers range from 500 euros for a Fiat Panda subcompact to 1,500 euros for a Jeep Grand Cherokee.
Fiat sent another memo to distributors last week to reassure customers that it “fully complies” with all testing rules and its vehicles are “not equipped with defeat devices,” according to a copy obtained by Bloomberg.
Automotive News Europe reported Monday that U.S. manufacturer Ford Motor Co. is providing a 750-euro trade-in bonus across its model range that’s also targeted at Italian drivers of Volkswagen cars.
More
We end with auto news from China, where VW’s dirty diesel fraud seems to
have pushed China towards a new push for an electric car future. Almost alone,
VW pushed “clean” diesel over electric vehicles as the future of motoring,
except in reality VW couldn’t deliver. In China VW’s strategy is about to go
flying off the rails.
China to hasten roll-out of car charging network: Xinhua
China wants to speed construction of a national network to charge
electric cars, to help reach an ambitious goal of 5 million green vehicles on
its roads by 2020, national news agency Xinhua said on Sunday, citing a senior
energy official.
A shortage of charging facilities has long been a roadblock for sales by
electric car makers, from domestic firm BYD Co Ltd to U.S. rival Tesla Motors,
as well as for government plans to rein in high levels of pollution.
China has made some progress on car charging infrastructure but its
approach has lacked coordination, National Energy Administration deputy head
Zheng Zhajie said.
It's like with phone chargers, it's a bit all over the place," he
told Xinhua. "Everyone has a pile of different chargers and a pile of
batteries. Now we're trying to improve things, moving towards unifying and
standardizing."
China aims to equip at least one in ten public car park facilities for
electric car charging, he said, adding that the State Council, or cabinet,
would soon issue guidance for the infrastructure roll-out.
China cut taxes on small-engine cars last week in an effort to revive
its wider automobile market, the world's biggest since 2009, although a recent
economic slowdown has weighed on sales.
But one bright spot this year has been sales of green cars, which have
almost quadrupled from the 2014 figure. The government sees electric cars as
China's best shot at closing a competitive gap with global rivals who have a
100-year headstart in traditional combustion engines.
More
“if
you drink much from a bottle marked 'poison,' it is almost certain to disagree
with you, sooner or later.”
Alice
in Wonderland.
At the Comex silver depositories Monday
final figures were: Registered 43.53 Moz, Eligible 120.66 Moz, Total 163.59
Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
No crooks today, just Merkel Madness in Germany
from her insane decision to tell all the world’s “migrants,” whatever that is,
to come to Germany. Does Great Britain really need or want to remain in a
German diktat run madhouse like this? Does any other European nation?
Germany faces logistical nightmare as refugee inflows hit record
When Hesham fled Syria in early August with his pregnant wife and baby,
he was sure all would be well once he got to Germany. Instead the hope has
turned to despair after weeks of waiting to be registered at an overcrowded
reception center in Berlin.
The 26-year-old former chef is one of the hundreds of migrants who crowd
around a small screen at the registration office every day, desperately waiting
for their number to come up so they can go inside and get a certificate that is
the first step in the asylum process.
Some climb on top of barricades to get a better view while others lie
out on the grass surrounded by suitcases and plastic bags which hold their few
possessions. When volunteers hand out apples and bananas, scuffles break out.
"I wish I'd stayed in Syria and not come here," Hesham said
through an interpreter. "I dreamed Germany would be better but it's so
bad. We've been sleeping in the cold. Now my baby is sick."
What was once a relatively smooth process for new arrivals has turned
into a confusing nightmare for many as cities and towns across the country
struggle to cope with a surge of refugees from the Middle East.
A record 800,000 migrants are expected this year. More than 200,000
arrived in September alone.
As the numbers have risen, registering the newcomers in a timely fashion
has become virtually impossible.
At the center in Berlin, asylum seekers, some of whom are sleeping
outside, say they have been waiting as long as 25 days to register. With winter
looming, the same frustrating delays are occurring in other cities across
Germany.
"The biggest problem at the moment is the initial registration of
people and providing them with the basics – that's not working well in an awful
lot of places," said Rebecca Kilian-Mason, who runs a project in Munich
that informs migrants about the asylum process in Germany.
The long waits to register are at the top of a list of problems that
German authorities are wrestling with.
They must find winter-proof accommodation, provide asylum seekers with
funds to survive, treat health problems, identify migrants with no documents
and weed out those who falsely claim to be Syrian because the German government
has made clear that those fleeing the civil war there will be allowed to stay.
Then there is the challenge of sending back the tens of thousands of
migrants who are not granted asylum and tracking down those who have not
applied in the first place.
More
Germany needs to limit refugee influx, close borders: Merkel allies
Germany needs to limit the number of refugees it takes in or even close
its borders, conservative allies of German Chancellor Angela Merkel said at the
weekend, as the country deals with record inflows of people fleeing from war
and poverty.
Around 800,000 migrants are expected to arrive in Germany, Europe's largest
and richest economy, this year and complaints from politicians, the federal
states and the municipalities that they cannot cope are growing.
German Finance
Minister
Wolfgang Schaeuble said Europe needed to restrict the refugee intake, and
members of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the sister party to Merkel's
conservatives in Bavaria, said Germany should shut its borders. Bavaria shares
a border with Austria and has borne the brunt of the influx.
Minister
Wolfgang Schaeuble said Europe needed to restrict the refugee intake, and
members of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the sister party to Merkel's
conservatives in Bavaria, said Germany should shut its borders. Bavaria shares
a border with Austria and has borne the brunt of the influx.
"If as many asylum seekers continue to come to Germany as in recent
weeks, we won't have any choice but to temporarily stop taking people in and to
close the borders to them," CSU politician Stephan Mayer told newspaper
Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (FAS).
Thousands of people are streaming into Germany every day, attracted by
relatively liberal asylum laws and generous benefits. Some 6,750 people arrived
in Bavaria alone on Friday and another 6,000 piled in on Saturday, a police
spokesman said.
Solar & Related Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this new section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?
$0.55 per watt from SolarCity’s record-breaking new solar panel
For a while there, there was a chance that solar expansion was in trouble. In the US, the federal Investment Tax Credit is set to end in 2016, which many believe will slow adoption, even as technology
gets better than ever. Without an outside funder forcing solar to make good
financial sense, the only way the tech
could survive is if it started making that same sense all on its own. Now, Elon Musk‘s solar power
venture SolarCity has taken another major step toward that goal, announcing
a new solar panel product that can produce power for about $0.55 per watt.The efficiency
of the panels themselves can reach 22.5%, which makes them the most efficient
residential panels ever created. On the surface, this seems to only mildly
outpace the 21.5% efficiency achieved by the prior leader, SunPower.
However, the whole appeal of this new SolarCity panel is its affordability, and
the venerable SunPower solar
cells are much more expensive than the average. We don’t
yet have final pricing for these new SolarCity panels, but with the
price of solar plummeting in
recent years they’ve got to be fairly cheap to compete.
The
announcement comes as a result of SolarCity’s acquisition of Silevo, a solar
manufacturing startup that boasted a new, high efficiency panel
architecture. The company calls it Triex
technology, and it incorporates crystalline silicon with thin films and complex
tunneling junctions for electron management. What’s important is that the
technology is not physically all that different from existing silicon
semiconductor structures, meaning that Silevo did not have to reinvent the wheel
in order to revolutionize it.
With the acquisition of Silevo, SolarCity also became one of only four
“vertically integrated” solar companies in the US, meaning that it can now
handle its own business all the way from manufacturing through sales on to and
installation. That will help them keep costs down as well, especially if this new technology it Triex
technology, and it incorporates crystalline silicon with thin films and complex
tunneling junctions for electron management. What’s important is that the
technology is not physically all that different from existing silicon
semiconductor structures, meaning that Silevo did not have to reinvent the wheel
in order to revolutionize it.
ends up being its core, best-selling home product. SolarCity is already
the largest installer in the US, and with Musk’s penchant for enormous
manufacturing plants like the Gigafactory, it could make a run for
manufacturing as well.These new solar panels will be manufactured in Buffalo, NY, at a facility called Riverbend. They’re entirely products of the US (minus the raw materials), just like Tesla‘s car batteries, The company hopes that Riverbend can produce up to 10,000 panels per day, and employ something like 2,000 people in the process.
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